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stringer bell

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Everything posted by stringer bell

  1. stringer bell
    Tempest in a teapot further complicated (to us) by language issues. I hope this is the case. Winter ball intrigues me and I don't really know how to consider performances in these leagues. I know many of the players are living at home and playing abbreviated schedules, I know that there are good crowds and good players when they are in the playoffs. I don't know how seriously the players are taking the competitions and I don't know if strong (or weak) performance shoud be an indication of future performance.
  2. stringer bell
    I have liked Vargas since I saw him hitting in ST a couple years ago. His prospect status was effected by not playing full seasons and being considered "bat only" at a young age. DHs just aren't considered as valuable as other position players unless they really rake. Vargas skipped AAA and does have some holes in his swing, but the power is epic and he is a switch hitter. I am slightly concerned by his lack of productivity as a RH hitter, but from what I remember, he didn't have severe platoon splits in the minors. It wouldn't surprise me to see Kennys struggle this year and it is possible he will need to go to AAA at some point, but I think that he'll be a good major league hitter for a good period of time.
  3. stringer bell
    Hicks' history in the lower minors was to struggle early, repeat and succeed. He has basically skipped AAA, or at least not mastered that level. If Buxton or Rosario need playing time at AAA, move Hicks to a corner. It is his projected place when Buxton arrives if he stays with the Twins anyway. IMHO, Hicks fundamentals and psyche can't stand up to the challenge of big league pitching. It is possible that success at Rochester (if not domination) might build his confidence to the point that he would come back to the major and hit well from both sides of the plate. In answer to Dante above, I believe the ship has sailed on switch hitting. Despite the talk about how fundamentally poor some of Hicks' PAs have been, the biggest thing he is lacking is confidence. However the club can build Aaron Hicks' confidence is the way it should proceed. I firmly believe that a trip to Rochester the best and perhaps only answer.
  4. stringer bell
    Based on what? HIs lifetime .609 OPS, the total lack of power he displayed in 2014? His nice smile? My point all offseason has been that in nearly a full year's major league at-bats Aaron Hicks has not shown himslef to be a major league hitter. He has shown that his spring training performance can't be counted on, so based on those two factors and still considering him a prospect who can get better, the only destination for Hicks should be Rochester, New York. Schafer's month of August was superior to any month Hicks has performed in the majors, by a lot. In my book, he should get the at-bats versus right handed pitchers and since I firmly believe Hicks should work on his hitting in the minors, the only RH choice to play center field to start the season is Shane Robinson.
  5. stringer bell
    The problem with a Hicks/Schafer platoon is that the guy with the tools and (perhaps) unreached potential won't get many at-bats. If Hicks only starts against left handers, then he starts less than 50 games. That is not the way to develop a player still regarded as a prospect. I have advocated long and hard for Hicks to be optioned to Rochester and see if he can master AAA pitching and perhaps become an acceptable big-league hitter. I really think that is the only way to go for Hicks. If the Twins want their best players on the field, Escobar should be out there, even if it means that Santana is in center. Personally, I want to see how long the acceptable hitting for Schafer will play out. Even with his much improved performance in Minnesota, his numbers screamed "platoon". Still, if he can perform close to last year, he is an asset who provides speed and base-stealing ability, two things the club lacks. Since I've called for Hicks to be optioned, the logical backup outfielder would be Robinson, not really an All-Star setup, but again the RH half of a platoon doesn't get that much time on the field. To me, making Aaron Hicks into a platoon player lowers his value and closes the book on him becoming much more than a career fourth outfielder. While I have been critical of his performance and doubtful of his future, I do believe he still has a chance to be much more than a platoon player/fourth OF.
  6. stringer bell
    Since Hicks has a lower OPS and the same OPS+ in approximately the same number of plate appearances, I guess neither of them belong in the majors. Seriously, what is best for Hicks is to go to Rochester and master that level. If it means that Robinson gets some play for a month or two, so be it. The Cards have made the playoffs almost every year and he's managed to get 2.141 years of service, so I guess Robinson fits on a good team as the 25th man.
  7. stringer bell
    Hicks-Gomez? Not me. Gomez was overly aggressive and Hicks is overly passive, so as players they are really opposite sides of the coin. In the sense that they started in the majors before they were ready there are similarities. Further, we have only seen glimpses of Hicks that were capable major league players. We saw more sustained stretches from Gomez paired with slumps where he looked like he couldn't hit the ball if it was on a tee. Regarding Rasmus, I don't want to see the Twins bring in someone that would only be acceptable in the outfield and I think that is all we would get with Rasmus. He also has an injury history and has trouble with LH pitching. If the Twins were to add Rasmus, they would have four players with severe platoon splits--Mauer, Arcia, Vargas in addition to Rasmus. I also get the feeling that Santana is going to struggle more against LH pitching just from his ABs last year.
  8. stringer bell
    Are the Twins really going to go with their current options for center field? Related question--will Danny Santana see considerable time in center this year?
  9. stringer bell
    According to ESPN, Dozier had the fifth highest WAR amongst second basemen. Plouffe was tenth amongst third sackers. With a serf salary, Dozier is a tremendous bargain. Meanwhile, Plouffe was underpaid for his value, but not nearly as much as Dozier. If they both maintain their production, they would continue to be great values. The waiting replacement for Plouffe has a very high ceiling, but is probably half a season away. Not now but later, Plouffe is a prime trade candidate. Dozier would appear to be a Twins' regular for next year and two arb years. He would be 30 at that point, with one more year prior to free agency. There is still time to get a an extension done, if Dozier continues to improve his performance.
  10. stringer bell
    From the buzz generated about Sano, not only from the Twins' cognicenti, but also the national media, Sano is not the kind of guy who should be blocked by a second quartile third baseman. Twins' management needs to see more on the field before they verify these lofty projections, but I believe Sano has enough potential that he will be given a regular job at third before he has absolutely proven he will be better than Plouffe.
  11. stringer bell
    I am by no means certain that Polanco is going to be a capable big league player. Despite his cup of coffee with the Twins last year, I see him as both further away and less certain than Sano. On the larger question of extending either Plouffe or Dozier (or both), I see no reason to make such a move. Rewarding them for past and current performance is fine, but it has been pointed out repeatedly that the decline phases of similar players begins during the terms of the suggested extension.
  12. stringer bell
    If all of those optimistic predictions came through, the Twins would win a lot more than 81 games. While I understand that things have to click, I think this year's Twins should set their sights higher than break even.
  13. stringer bell
    Halsey, I thought for sure you would concur with Plouffe prediction! Happy New Year to all!
  14. stringer bell
    League average is thrown around a lot here. I have a hard time believing there are many bench players in the league that approach league average as hitters, especially since they won't get platoon or everyday play. For most of last season, Parm was a bench player with a league average bat. I think that skill set would be useful for a lot of teams combined with some positional flexibility.
  15. stringer bell
    I'm pulling for Dozier to make an All-Star appearance. Ten more singles in the first half and he would have made it last year. He easily been the Twins' best position player for the duration of the last two years, so he should have the honor of representing them in the All-Star game, as well as being voted team MVP.
  16. stringer bell
    Hands down, Dozier has been the Twins best position player in the last two years. I was hoping he would get an All-Star appearance out of last year and I do hope that he gets that recognition as a member of the Twins. He's been a nice story and is also a good guy from (limited) personal experience and what I've seen in the media. Does that justify an extension? By itself, of course not. The Twins need to see where his value is going, if there is a less expensive replacement on the horizon, and project what he is going to do in the future. I don't see any reason to rush into an extension, but if things are trending favorably for BD a year from now, it might be a wise thing to do.
  17. stringer bell
    Here's my view (trying to be realistic). No way Nolasco gets traded in 2015. Injuries and ineffectiveness will happen. At least seven or eight guys will get multiple starts during the 2015 season.
  18. stringer bell
    Here comes the cold water....Hicks hasn't been able to hit well enough to hold down center field. Why should we expect him to improve enough to hold on to a corner spot? Don't see it and never have. I hope Hicks has a good year and maybe establishes himself as a major league center fielder. That would be great, but I just don't ever see Hicks being a staple as a corner outfielder.
  19. stringer bell
    I think Bark pretty much nailed it. Parmelee's skill set doesn't profile to be a star or even a regular, but he was a pretty good bench player for the Twins last year and he could be a helpful player for a major league team. I am surprised all of this took so long. It has been known for more than two weeks that Parmelee was off the 40-man roster and he just declared for free agency today? I guess there would be a time for him to be claimed and he probably gets time to decide whether he will accept a second outright assignment to the minors. Anyway, best wishes to Parm. He seems like a nice guy.
  20. stringer bell
    The team shed a lot of older players, especially position players--Kubel, Bartlett, Colabello, Willingham, Correia, and Burton. The Twins still have plenty of age in their pitching staff, but they have phased in youngsters Santana and Vargas and are have more young guys on the doorstep. This club's player who has been at the same position the longest is Trevor Plouffe, who took third base in May (?) of 2011. the entire rotation will have turned over since 2013 and again younger guys are getting close.
  21. stringer bell
    I'm not sure if Gibson has to raise his K/9 that much. Two keys for him: 1) Getting ahead in the count and 2) limiting damage instead of allowing a big inning. It seems like both stem from not trusting his stuff enough. He's got enough pitches that if gets strikes early in the count, he will get outs. It seemed to often in his "bad Gibson" games that he was continually throwing 2-0 cookies.
  22. stringer bell
    To me, the difference between the measures of ERA or BA versus fielding metrics is that I don't believe fielding metrics even tell us how a player performed in the time measured. That is if a batter hits over .300, it is certain that he gets a hit at least three times out of 10 official at-bats whereas if somebody has poor fielding metrics in a year, we can't be absolutely sure that he was good in the field during the time measured. When predicting future performance, we know that a good ERA or BA doesn't tell us for sure that what the future will hold.
  23. stringer bell
    The spending on starters is surprising and impressive and demonstrated how few options were available in-house. The strategy is also risky. There are no guarantees that anyone from the staff will that good. There is a large commitment in both dollars and years to guys who didn't profile to be potential All-Stars when they were acquired. One could also say that since the Twins are spending $32 million on three members of the starting staff, that perhaps they could have picked up an ace like Scherzer or Lackey instead of paying big bucks for three guys who have career ERA+ numbers of 99, 98, and 91.
  24. stringer bell
    Overall, Target Field plays "fair", with early and late weather perhaps suppressing offense. If the weather is good early and late, the numbers for Target Field should be pretty close to league average. I think the prescription by the OP are fine, but basically it is the same for any park--speed and range up the middle, power on the corners, surehandedness everywhere. Probably the only exception is that range is helpful on the corners in Oakland because of the massive amount of foul territory. Within the "fair" rating for Target Field, it seems that home runs are suppressed overall a bit, particularly to right field, while homers to left are perhaps a bit more generous than average, but still not enough to make up for the suppression to right and deep power alleys.
  25. stringer bell
    I'll quibble with that answer. The clubs have the hammer of renewing a contract, but a contract is negotiated. IIRC, Trout received a few hundred K extra after his near-MVP season I believe Dozier got a little extra after assuming a regular position in 2013. I checked--Trout received a million after his rookie year, and Dozier got 540K. Escobar, with similar seniority got $507,500. It is peanuts, but there can be a negotiation. These guys are human beings and I think a little sweetener for guys who figure to be regulars is probably a good thing. For instance, Escobar probably should get an extra 50K or more than a simple renewal, giving Dozier a million this year won't break the bank and probably gives him a bit more incentive. Treating guys well who make serf wages is smart and not that costly.
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