stringer bell

My brother and I made a trip to Cedar Rapids in 2013. I met a couple of players and then saw them in the spring in 2014. After having met JO Berrios, I am certainly a fan. I also shook hands with Mason Melotakis and follow him (not so much this year with the TJ surgery).

An ideal backup would be a stronger defensive catcher, but OTOH Pinto could be the primary catcher if Suzuki reverts to pre-2014 form. I haven't given up on Pinto as a regular.

I would estimate Buxton's ETA at September 1. I would like to remind everyone that Buxton is not on the same plane as Hicks as a prospect. Even after a year of near-total inactivity, he is in everyone's top five. More specifically, Buxton is the fastest player that the organization has had since Ryan was the GM. Hicks' speed was rated only as "above average", certainly not game-changing. I'm sure that Buxton isn't a finished product defensively, but he has gold-glove tools. Let's hope that injury doesn't derail the best prospect the Twins have had since Joe Mauer or maybe longer.

I don't think it is as simple as no power/no walks. Dozier was a quality hitter over the course of his 2014 season because he displayed good power and patience. I wouldn't be totally surprised if he doesn't exceed 20 homers again, but I would bet that he'll make the teens with plenty of doubles. His biggest improvement over 2013 was drawing free passes. Perhaps it is the Bruno influence or maybe just the maturing of a good, determined player, but I doubt that he'll suddenly reduce that walk rate substantially. I think his margin is smaller than ultra-talented hitters, and that his upside isn't a whole bunch more than last year as a hitter, but he was a pretty darned good hitter last year and a couple more years of such production will earn him a real good pay day.

P.S.--I forgot about Herrmann, but checked on several of the other suspects who played outfield last year. From what I saw, the Twins used Kubel, Willingham, Parmelee, Colabello, Bartlett, and Escobar the equivalent of 146 full games. That is a lot of innings from guys who won't play an inning out there for them in 2015. Adding in Herrmann, that is more than 162 games of pretty brutal outfield defense. Of course, Herrmann is still on the 40-man and might get some reps on the corners.

I agree with Thrylos' premise, but Gardenhire was hamstrung for most of the season by a roster that had few alternatives to what he put out there defensively. I would categorize several of the infielders as outfielders as poor or worse, and of course Parmelee, Kubel and Willingham share one trait, poor speed, which despite their experience as outfielders makes them below average. I think that Schafer was and will be OK as a center fielder and probably a plus as a corner guy. Given the current roster construction, I can see Nuñez on the corners on occasion, and I don't think his numbers look bad (although my own "eye test" said that he didn't look great out there). Finally, there is Danny Santana--his numbers weren't bad considering where he started. If the Twins need him in center (and I wouldn't be a surprised if they did), I think he would be above average as soon as 2015. Adding Hunter and moving Arcia to left hurts the defense. Subtracting Kubel, Willingham, Parmelee, and Colabello probably helps more than the addition of Hunter hurts. Not having to play the likes of Escobar and Bartlett also helps the "runs prevented" bottom line. Waiting in the wings are Rosario and Buxton with Daniel Ortiz also a possibility. All three of them profile as at least satisfactory and, of course, Buxton is regarded as special in all categories.

IMHO, Dozier is "proven" as a second baseman and is probably in the top half of players at his position. That is worth a lot of money and there is no guarantee that a player currently in the Twins' system can equal that productivity. It is quite possible that his 2014 season will be his best, but I doubt he'll fall off a cliff in the next couple of years, but the trajectory of his career can't really be marked by only last year and this year. It makes little sense to extend him when he's isn't even eligible for arbitration. A year from now we'll probably have a much better idea of how good he will be for the next few years. Personally, I like Dozier a lot. He's improved dramatically and he has the ability to affect a game with legs, glove and bat. He plays a key position and has made the transition from short seamlessly.

Usually lose in the first round of the playoffs. Basically Oakland and the Twins have had the same success since Moneyball began. Frequently make the postseason, but never go anywhere after that. Beane and Ryan appear to be the extremes in the continuum in rebuilding a roster.

It does matter in a truly open competition. Gibson won and kept a starting spot in the rotation last year. It is getting in shape time for some of the veterans. If Hughes or Santana struggle this spring it won't amount to a hill of beans. Sometimes "competitions" are no such thing. For example, Suzuki was going to be the starting catcher and Bartlett was going to make the team no matter what they did between the lines.

IMHO, if that is the case, they are throwing good money after bad. I've said many times that I still consider Hicks a prospect, but even if he becomes a mid-range outfielder, I don't see much future for him with the Twins. Buxton will start in AA, and other players have made that jump. Buxton is a prospect in a different galaxy than Hicks ever was, so at best Hicks a) builds a little trade value or slides over to a corner where his bat will have to make another quantum leap to be league average. I don't believe Torii Hunter was signed to specifically mentor Aaron Hicks. He may have been acquired to provide an example for young players, but in the end Hicks will have to stand or fall on his own.

I think of Herrmann as passable and satisfactory in a backup role (short term) and more than an emergency catcher. However, he hasn't shown himself to be a major league hitter and his defense is nothing special. He offers positional flexibility in an era where that is important. A similar marginal talent (Chris Gimenez) has now had over three years of major league service time in a similar role while getting just over 500 plate appearances in that span. I see the Diamondbacks have signed Jordan Pacheco, another example of a guy that is more than an emergency catcher who can play other positions. It seems to me that guys who can catch a little bit and can play other positions are more valuable to mangers and front offices than their offensive and defensive stats would suggest.

I believe Milone has an option remaining. I think he either wins a spot in the rotation or he is in Rochester. Pelfrey wins a spot or inherits Swarzak's role, with a possible move down the road to 1) starting rotation 2) late inning setup duty or 3) trade or release. May and Meyer figure in as well and if either is clearly better than the competition they make the squad in the rotation. If not, I don't see room in the bullpen. My prediction: The four penciled in as starters plus Milone. May and Meyer both to Rochester and Pelfrey to the 'pen. What I am hoping for: minor injury to one of the four, adding both Meyer and May to the rotation with a healthy Milone in Rochester.

Eduardo Nuñez' lifetime OPS+ is 86, Aaron Hicks lifetime OPS+ is 69, yet Hicks should start in center and Nuñez isn't good enough to be the 25th man? Schafer is at 72 for a lifetime OPS+ and has an elite skill (stealing bases). Both Nuñez and Schafer have had far better single months than Hicks' best. It makes no sense to me to hand Hicks a job for the third year in a row. Yes, I know Hicks is young and has only 500+ plate appearances and is actually a center fielder, but Hicks needs to master AAA. If whoever (Schafer, Robinson or anyone else) doesn't cut it, there's always Danny Santana with the superior defender (and decent bat) Eduardo Escobar ready and able to step in full time at shortstop. Escobar at least sustained above average hitting for an entire season (more than 450 plate appearances).

Thanks mods, your contribution is much appreciated. Happy Holidays to all on the board. Best wishes for a Happy New Year.

For goodness sakes, that option should be used. Turning a first round choice into a right handed Sam Fuld is not really a positive. Let the kid master AAA and come up when he's ready. If Rosario or Buxton is ready first, so be it.

I'm not sure myself, but he has real power from both sides of the plate. Vargas is my most likely candidate for being demoted from the team to Rochester during the season. I think Vargas has holes, but has potential to be very good. He's only a DH, though, and that limits his current and long-term value.

You had me until the #9 hitter!

Nuñez offers plus speed and a good bat for a utility player. He's not great defensively, but from watching him last year I wouldn't call him a butcher either. If the Twins want a glove-first three-position backup, Nuñez isn't a perfect fit, but having a guy who can run a little bit and who doesn't surprise everyone if he gets an extra base hit suits me pretty well. Until and unless the Twins make an outfield move, it is also important that Nuñez can play some in the outfield. He started ten games in the OF for the Twins and could start several more if Arcia doesn't improve against left handed pitching and playing defense. Punto is the antithesis of Nuñez. His good speed of ten years ago is no longer a big asset, he remains a good glove at the three infield positions and he has a weak bat with very little power. Add in that he is older and has a long injury history, no thanks to Nick Punto in 2015.

I pretty much agree with the above post. I want to emphasize that the difference between being in major league camp and minor league camp is literally a few hundred feet. If Walker somehow shows he is "too good" for the Rochester group in camp, it is a short walk to the Twins' camp. I've seen him in the spring and at Cedar Rapids and he is an impressive physical specimen with both good speed and strength. Probably the player he reminds me of most is Michael Restovitch, who had a brief career in the majors but never established himself. Walker's resumé includes impressive counting numbers and championships. That is good, but can't totally be attributed to his performance alone. He's been on a succession of good teams and he's stayed on one team for an entire year.

The Giants have their third baseman, I guess. They acquired Casey McGehee from the Marlins. Many of us had speculated that the Giants would be interested in trading for Trevor Plouffe to take the Panda's spot for the Gigantes. McGehee appears to be comparable, but less valuable than Plouffe in just about every category. He is 32, four years older than Plouffe. His defense grades as below average, Plouffe has progressed to positive territory. His career OPS+ is 96, coming off a 99 in 2014. Plouffe is coming off a 110 OPS+ season and is a lifetime 99. Finally, Plouffe will be under team control for three more years while McGehee is a free agent after the 2015 season. The Giants yielded two pitching prospects for McGehee, what could the Twins expect for Plouffe?

I find this thread very interesting and I also see quite a divergence of opinion about Aaron Hicks. First of all, as usual, an absolutely wonderful analysis of Hicks by Parker. I think it is important to note that he isn't Miguel Cabrera from the right side either. Let's also acknowledge that there are definite advantages to switch hitting and definite advantages to batting left handed. At 25 years of age, one would have to be a really lousy left handed hitter to give up those advantages. Also a word about Hicks' tools--he is regarded as a fast runner, but he isn't off-the-charts fast. He had one good stolen base season, but otherwise hasn't been a huge threat on the bases. The power hasn't developed either and last year I was truly disappointed with the lack of power he showed, he just didn't hit many balls hard--on a line, fly balls or grounders. I agree that a prospect (and I still consider Hicks to be one) should not be platooned, especially as the RH half of a job share. I wholeheartedly agree that for the player and the team, Hicks must be sent to Rochester to start the season. Let him master a level he hasn't yet mastered, build his confidence, and if he is the best outfield option by sometime in May, bring him up. Regarding the lack of a Plan B, perhaps that is Danny Santana. It could happen either way, if the current candidates can't perform at replacement level or if Santana struggles as a shortstop, then he could return to the outfield where he made real strides and hit very well. I wouldn't rule out Rosario either. It is still a long shot for him to make the club out of ST, but in my mind he should be rated on a par with Hicks, since Aaron has not proven very much as a major leaguer.

Escobar played in one exhibition game as a catcher (a couple of innings IIRC) and has never played behind the plate in the minors or the big leagues. I don't consider him a third catcher, but rather the team's best emergency option if a disaster occurred. Herrmann could be used to start a few games if the backup was banged up and the regular needed a day off. There is a difference to me.

I promised myself that I was done commenting about Aaron Hicks, but I just can't help myself. Being charitable, Hicks was a failure in 2013 and a disappointment in 2014. He displays commendable tools, but so far his performance has not been of major league quality. Hicks is 25 years old, and I still consider him a prospect, but after his performances of the past two years, Hicks needs to go back to the minor leagues. His pattern had been to struggle at a level, return and master that level. Hicks skipped Triple A and twice has failed to master big league pitching. He has performed well in the spring, only to struggle when the games count. It makes no sense to start him with the Twins in 2015, both for the team and the player and spring training can't serve as a measuring stick of his readiness, as evidenced by the last two years. As mentioned, Hicks has nice tools, but none of them are game-changing and his hit tool hasn't developed to play at the highest level. He isn't going to change many games with his speed and his defense isn't as good as advertised. Nick is certainly closer to the Twins' decision makers than I am and perhaps he has indications that Hicks will be the starting center fielder. I can't imagine that they would keep Hicks in the majors to be a RH half of a platoon, starting less than 30% of games.

Don't forget All-Star Kurt Suzuki!

While he's not really a center fielder, I think the Twins could/should take a flyer on someone like Sierra. He's still pretty young and looks like he might be an okay offensive player. Certainly a better version of a backup outfielder spot than Wilken Ramirez. I still prefer the Twins get a premium defender to play center field and perhaps move to a corner when Buxton arrives. As far as Herrmann goes, he not a candidate to get regular play at catcher, but the fact that he can put on the gear and be acceptable behind the plate adds to his value.