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Everything posted by stringer bell
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2014/15 Offseason Plans
stringer bell commented on diehardtwinsfan's blog entry in Blog diehardtwinsfan
I know that Santana defied gravity somewhat, but there is no way a guy who hit well over .300 in over 400 plate appearances is going to start 2015 in the minors or on the bench. If Molitor wants to start him at SS, fine. However, there needs to be a backup plan if he struggles (hitting or fielding). -
I think that if the Twins are committed to Santana at short, Nuñez' chances of staying a Twin take a big hit. A second utility guy with a rep as a below-average glove really doesn't cut it. I like what Nunez has to offer (speed, some pop), but if he's backing up three guys who figure to play every day and also behind Escobar, he isn't needed.
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What to do: Eduardo Escobar
stringer bell replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The three best hitters on the team appear to block EE, or maybe it is the three best players. He played a quality major league SS and hit very, very well and his reward is utility duty? Further, because the three guys manning second, short, and third were the three best players last year, his chances of getting a lot of starts aren't that good unless there is an injury. Finally, Escobar hit well from the right side. That would present a great chance if he was an outfielder or first baseman, but Plouffe, Dozier, and Santana all hit left handers very well. I think we've seen his ceiling, which is pretty good. If someone offered a good pitcher, maybe the time to trade him is now. Personally, though, I think EE will get his time on the field, just not right out of the box. -
The general plan is fine. I think the prices for Santana (including a draft pick) and Rasmus will be too high. I think picking up a stopgap who can play center would work, and it probably should be a right handed hitter. Bourgos from the Cards, maybe, or Ruggiano from the Cubs. Denorfia is a free agent who is a plus fielder. The pitcher I'd most like to see the Twins land is Masterson. Another might be Anderson, who pitched for the Rockies last year.
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Say goodbye to the pinstripes
stringer bell replied to EephusKnuckler's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Slightly off I remember the Twins' '61 baseball cards because none of them were wearing a cap! Apparently, the new cap wasn't designed and produced in time for ST when they photographed the players for their cards, so they all had their pictures taken hatless. Harmon always looked better wearing a cap. -
Signing Torii Hunter Doesn't Make Sense
stringer bell commented on Cody Christie's blog entry in North Dakota Twins Fan
It seems to be a knee-jerk reaction to sign an ex-Twin for every vacancy. I enjoyed Torii while he was here and respect what he has done since, but the Twins don't need guys deep in their decline phase. -
Challenges Facing Paul Molitor
stringer bell replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Did I mention "pitching and defense"? -
Challenges Facing Paul Molitor
stringer bell replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I don't think the Twins are that far away. Their top ten problems last year: 1) Pitching 2)Outfield Defense 3) Pitching 4) Pitching 5) Defense 6) Situational Hitting 7) Fundamentals 8) Pitching 9) Defense 10)Anderson. I expect rebounds from Milone and Nolasco with some regression from Hughes. I see big transition in the bullpen, but overall improvement. They can have a winning record or better in 2015. -
Rios has only played a few innings in left, but he would be the veteran I would target. I don't know what happened to his power last year, but for under $5M, I'd take a flyer on him.
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It is pitching and defense. Defense and pitching. If the Twins improve their run suppression by as much as they improved their run production last year, they will be contenders. To respond directly to the post I'm quoting, I don't see a single certain starter that should be platooned. I am a believer in platoon splits (for example if Mauer gets 15 games off per year, they should all be against LH pitchers), but strict platooning costs valuable roster space in an era of 12-13 man pitching staffs. I certainly think it was time for a new manager and past time for a new pitching coach. That said, no pitching coach is going to come in and make Gibson and Nolasco into one strikeout per inning guys. Add a hard thrower (Masterson if healthy) to the rotation and bring up the hard throwers from the minors for the bullpen. Change won't be overnight, though.
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They need to bring in a youngish, good defense OF (I don't think that is Hunter) and starting pitching. Another signing like Hughes (or a Nolasco comeback) and I won't care about any of the rest of the transactions.
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I think the QO locks Cuddyer up in Colorado. He might end up with 2-24 or something like that. I like Cuddyer a lot, but I guess Colorado really likes him to make that kind of guarantee.
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I think it is interesting that most of the staff has advocates for them to be retained (except for Anderson). I basically agree. I don't think Gardy's staff was the problem (again with the possible exception of the pitching coach) and I also don't think it makes much difference who is on the staff. However, it may make sense to hire guys who can relate to the younger guys and the growing Hispanic presence on the field. I certainly don't think Molitor needs an All-Star team for a coaching staff. Managing superstar Joe Maddon never played in the majors and coaching superstar Ray Searage was an undistinguished major leaguer. IMHO, the best coaches and managers were not great players. Hall-of-Famer Molitor has his work cut out for him. I think he's capable and I think he has a lot of talent in Minnesota and a lot more coming soon.
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New Face, Old Gard(y): Twins Choose Tradition over Talent, Again
stringer bell commented on GoGonzoJournal's blog entry in Minnesota Foul Play-by-play
I am neither pro- nor anti-Molitor. I know that he is very smart and knows his baseball. He will be a better interview than Gardy, but might wear on everyone faster if the Twins continue to be a losing franchise. I understand that the pitching needs to be upgraded, but finding an ace isn't easy. If it were, every team would have one. I personally don't think free agency is the answer. Most top-dollar contracts for pitchers just don't work.- 10 comments
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- paul molitor
- terry ryan
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Three former Twins among ten on Golden Era ballot
stringer bell replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I'm biased I'm sure, but I always thought Tony-O belonged in the Hall. I still do in light of his peak numbers in an extreme pitcher-friendly era. I think Kitty belongs as well--right up to the border as a player and then a fine analyst. I think a case can be made for Hodges, Boyer and Minoso, the others not so much. -
World Series Complete: 121 Players Become Free Agents
stringer bell replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Other Baseball
I agree that there are attractive pitchers, but not many outfielders who match up with the Twins' needs. I think a trade for an outfielder is in order, while signing a rotation piece. I like Masterson and Peter Bourgos for those roles. -
The last two years, the Twins' bullpen has been incredibly stable. They've also been regarded as quite effective, especially when compared to the starting rotation. During the last leg of the season, the bullpen was neither effective nor efficient. I'm going to discuss the players who were on the club for most of the season. Six pitchers spent all season with the Twins and threw almost all of their innings in the bullpen: Swarzak, Burton, Fien, Duensing, Thielbar and Perkins. They all threw between 47 and 68 innings, with Swarzak again logging the most frames and Thielbar the least. With so many measures to view overall effectiveness, it is really hard to summarize the group, other than to point out that five of these six relievers gave up more hits than innings pitched. Only Glen Perkins struck out more than one batter per inning and all of their ERAs were over three. As a relief staff, the Twins didn't strike out many, but also didn't walk many. This wasn't a bullpen that overpowered hitters. As a group they were effective when they hit their spots and the balls hit into play found the gloves of the Twins fielders. Here's a brief thumbnail of each along with a projection for 2015: Thielbar: After having a fine rookie campaign, Caleb Thielbar pitched a pretty anonymous 47.1 innings. He was close to equally effective against left or right. Like most Twins relievers, he weakened at the end of the season. Thielbar is not eligible for arbitration, which increases his value. I expect that Caleb will be a member of the coming year's bullpen. Duensing: The WHIP is up, K's are down. Duensing was the only all-season reliever to have his ERA outpace his FIP by a substantial amount. I have liked Duensing because of his versatility and durability, but since he will be arb-eligible, he is a strong candidate to be non-tendered. I, for one, hope that the Twins find a way to keep the veteran lefty, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if he is traded or non-tendered. Perkins: Publicly, the Twins are saying that Perkins is an All-Star closer and that his pitching arm is fine. While I am glad that there isn't something seriously wrong with his arm, I'm not convinced that his performance going forward won't become an issue. Perkins got his swings and misses and his strikeouts in 2014, but even before his dismal September, his velocity was down and he allowed a lot of hard-hit balls, not all of which should have been caught. He allowed 32 hits in 32 innings from June-August before his (injury-fueled) drop-off in September. Just about every stat went the wrong way in 2014. At the very least, Perk will have to make some adjustments. Swarzak: He won points with his manager and pitching coach by taking the ball when asked. In 2015 however he wil have a different coach and manager. Swarzak's role is long relief and they just aren't very valuable unless they can evolve into a late-inning role or a spot in the rotation. It looks to me like long relief is Swarzak's only role. Swarzak garnered four starts, with mostly unimpressive results and wasn't much better in higher leverage situations. The numbers say he regressed to the mean after a very good 2013. His WHIP was up, walks up and strikeouts down. Since he's arbitration-eligible and out of options, I expect Swarzak will be pitching for someone else next year. Burton: Burton was a solid performer in 2012, less solid in 2013, and started out horribly in 2014. He pitched better as the season wore on, and by the end of the season he was the Twins most reliable reliever IMHO. The warning signs started in 2013. His velocity was down, and it lessened the effectiveness of his out pitch, the change-up. The numbers point the wrong way--WHIP, hits per IP and BBs up, K's down. Burton was victimized by base stealers, unable or unwilling to keep runners close. The Twins pretty much closed the door on his return by buying out his 2015 option. The 33 year old Burton will be a free agent and I doubt the Twins will seriously try to re-sign him. Fien: Like Burton and Thielbar, Fien was picked off the scrap heap. His performance when called up in 2012 was excellent and surprising. He started strong in 2013, but faded. That script was followed in 2014. Fien was the principal eighth inning guy and did well holding leads. In his few attempts to close games, he couldn't get it done. Fien's two-pitch mix requires excellent command. If he's a little off, the ball can travel a long, long way. He allowed slightly more hits than innings pitched, struck out far fewer batters than previously and yielded some big innings. At 31, it is doubtful that he can improve much. Much like Swarzak, Duensing and Burton, it seems likely that we've seen the best these men have to offer. It makes sense to move several of the bullpen guys and replace them with younger guys with power arms. This concludes my "Postseason Reviews". To summarize, there are a lot of pretty good players already in the majors. The talent needs to be augmented by an improved pitching staff and maybe some premium talent that is getting close to arriving. View full article
- 13 replies
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- brian duensing
- anthony swarzak
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Six pitchers spent all season with the Twins and threw almost all of their innings in the bullpen: Swarzak, Burton, Fien, Duensing, Thielbar and Perkins. They all threw between 47 and 68 innings, with Swarzak again logging the most frames and Thielbar the least. With so many measures to view overall effectiveness, it is really hard to summarize the group, other than to point out that five of these six relievers gave up more hits than innings pitched. Only Glen Perkins struck out more than one batter per inning and all of their ERAs were over three. As a relief staff, the Twins didn't strike out many, but also didn't walk many. This wasn't a bullpen that overpowered hitters. As a group they were effective when they hit their spots and the balls hit into play found the gloves of the Twins fielders. Here's a brief thumbnail of each along with a projection for 2015: Thielbar: After having a fine rookie campaign, Caleb Thielbar pitched a pretty anonymous 47.1 innings. He was close to equally effective against left or right. Like most Twins relievers, he weakened at the end of the season. Thielbar is not eligible for arbitration, which increases his value. I expect that Caleb will be a member of the coming year's bullpen. Duensing: The WHIP is up, K's are down. Duensing was the only all-season reliever to have his ERA outpace his FIP by a substantial amount. I have liked Duensing because of his versatility and durability, but since he will be arb-eligible, he is a strong candidate to be non-tendered. I, for one, hope that the Twins find a way to keep the veteran lefty, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if he is traded or non-tendered. Perkins: Publicly, the Twins are saying that Perkins is an All-Star closer and that his pitching arm is fine. While I am glad that there isn't something seriously wrong with his arm, I'm not convinced that his performance going forward won't become an issue. Perkins got his swings and misses and his strikeouts in 2014, but even before his dismal September, his velocity was down and he allowed a lot of hard-hit balls, not all of which should have been caught. He allowed 32 hits in 32 innings from June-August before his (injury-fueled) drop-off in September. Just about every stat went the wrong way in 2014. At the very least, Perk will have to make some adjustments. Swarzak: He won points with his manager and pitching coach by taking the ball when asked. In 2015 however he wil have a different coach and manager. Swarzak's role is long relief and they just aren't very valuable unless they can evolve into a late-inning role or a spot in the rotation. It looks to me like long relief is Swarzak's only role. Swarzak garnered four starts, with mostly unimpressive results and wasn't much better in higher leverage situations. The numbers say he regressed to the mean after a very good 2013. His WHIP was up, walks up and strikeouts down. Since he's arbitration-eligible and out of options, I expect Swarzak will be pitching for someone else next year. Burton: Burton was a solid performer in 2012, less solid in 2013, and started out horribly in 2014. He pitched better as the season wore on, and by the end of the season he was the Twins most reliable reliever IMHO. The warning signs started in 2013. His velocity was down, and it lessened the effectiveness of his out pitch, the change-up. The numbers point the wrong way--WHIP, hits per IP and BBs up, K's down. Burton was victimized by base stealers, unable or unwilling to keep runners close. The Twins pretty much closed the door on his return by buying out his 2015 option. The 33 year old Burton will be a free agent and I doubt the Twins will seriously try to re-sign him. Fien: Like Burton and Thielbar, Fien was picked off the scrap heap. His performance when called up in 2012 was excellent and surprising. He started strong in 2013, but faded. That script was followed in 2014. Fien was the principal eighth inning guy and did well holding leads. In his few attempts to close games, he couldn't get it done. Fien's two-pitch mix requires excellent command. If he's a little off, the ball can travel a long, long way. He allowed slightly more hits than innings pitched, struck out far fewer batters than previously and yielded some big innings. At 31, it is doubtful that he can improve much. Much like Swarzak, Duensing and Burton, it seems likely that we've seen the best these men have to offer. It makes sense to move several of the bullpen guys and replace them with younger guys with power arms. This concludes my "Postseason Reviews". To summarize, there are a lot of pretty good players already in the majors. The talent needs to be augmented by an improved pitching staff and maybe some premium talent that is getting close to arriving.
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Postseason Review: Aaron Hicks
stringer bell replied to stringer bell's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I like Rosario a lot, but this off-season stuff shouldn't be given too much credence. It is a great opportunity for Eddie to regain his top prospect status and so far he has really taken advantage. There is a gaping hole in the outfield, and Rosario could be the answer. I'd like him to finish strong in the AFL and then have a good (or better) Spring Training before I reserve a spot for him on the team. -
I just checked today's AFL game and Eddie Rosario got a double in his first at-bat. We Twins fans shouldn't get too worked up about minor league baseball played in Arizona in October and November. However, there isn't much else Twins related to follow, so all of a sudden it becomes important that Eddie Rosario is hitting .400 in off-season ball. Having said that, Rosario is following the script he needs to follow to make his Twins' debut early in 2015. He is undoing the tough season he had in AA and showing that he can play and excel with the best American prospects in baseball. As I write this, Rosario leads all AFL hitters in batting average. He is on the leaderboard in hits, stolen bases, and OBP. Most reports have him playing a more than respectable left field, with a couple of games in center. He has hit both lefties and right handers. To further his chances, Rosario needs to continue to hit in the remainder of the AFL and carry those results forward to Spring Training. I still think it would take a "perfect storm" for Eddie to break camp with the Twins, but with each success in the off-season, the perfect storm becomes more likely. I have said before that Aaron Hicks' two partial seasons with the Twins should not provide him with a leg up in making the club in 2015. His offensive performance was too dismal and his defense was adequate, certainly not enough to justify a roster spot. If Rosario outplays Hicks in the spring, he should be in front of him for promotion or for making the club. The Twins need to have more than Hicks and Rosario competing for a starting spot. With all the flux in the Twins' outfield, there is a chance that Eddie Rosario can undo all that went wrong in the past 12 months and claim a starting spot at some point on the 2015 Twins.
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Bold Predictions for the Twins Offseason
stringer bell commented on jtkoupal's blog entry in Blog jtkoupal
I don't think Mauer will put up MVP numbers, but I think he'll be far better next year. My one prediction is that one of Arcia, Santana or Vargas will be sent to the minors sometime this year. -
Postseason Review: Aaron Hicks
stringer bell replied to stringer bell's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Does anyone have a good idea what the level of the Venezuelan Winter League is? I looked at a few box scores and didn't recognize many names, so I am guessing it wouldn't be AAA+ or better. I know that the major leaguers often wait until later in the season to play, but right now it doesn't look more advanced than the AFL, that is my guess. -
Berardino: "No contact" between Twins & Maddon
stringer bell replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
The runs allowed in the past four years could be bad pitching or bad defense or a combination of both. Poor performance when the opponent is hitting has to fall on one or more of three people--Ryan, Anderson and Gardenhire. Two of them are no longer working for the team, one is. Should the third guy have been fired? I don't think Ryan should be fired, but he shouldn't be given a pass either. -
Bumgarner was great. Panda and Pence did their thing and the role players were pretty good. The rest of the staff, meh. Buster Posey really struggled and yet, they won in seven games. Bochy is a pretty good manager.
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Twins Organizational Depth Chart: Catchers
stringer bell replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I like Turner a lot. He would profile as a regular catcher and Gold Glove (mitt?) contender. I suppose he would be a bottom-of-the-order hitter, but I think he could be a league-average hitter.- 23 replies
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- kurt suzuki
- stuart turner
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