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stringer bell

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Everything posted by stringer bell

  1. stringer bell
    Yup, in this little round robin for the Big Ten West, Minnesota and Wisconsin have won close on the road and big at home (against the same opponents). It tells me that on a neutral field, this would be a 1-3 point spread, but Bucky is at home, so it will be high single digits. While the Gophers would be ranked higher if they hadn't lost to Illinois (and might have gotten a better bowl game), they would be in the exact same situation going into the last game. I agree that this group is a half step better than the best that Mason had, and it isn't talent that makes the difference.
  2. stringer bell
    I wish Minny vs. Bucky was at Minnesota or a neutral field, but hey, if they can put the emphasis on what Wisconsin doesn't do well, they can make a game of it.
  3. stringer bell
    I respect what Hunter has done, both with the Twins and after he left them, but I really don't see this as a fit. Is he going to be a big clubhouse influence as a partime player? Or is he, at 39, going to be a starter for 140-plus games? Where would he hit in the lineup? Is he really going to play left field? I also have some concerns about what kind of hitter he would be when not hitting between some of the best hitters in the business. Whatever money that would be spent on Torii would be better spent on pitching and defense.
  4. stringer bell
    I'd like the Twins to acquire a left fielder who actually has played left field. Among the players mentioned, Rios has played one game in left in his career, and Hunter has played two innings in left field in this millennium. As I have mentioned before, I am in the minority that believes the Twins must proceed as if they are going to contend in 2015, meaning it isn't time for guys in their mid- to late-30's to learn how to play a new position. Plouffe too, but at least he's under 30.
  5. stringer bell
    Do remember that most of Kubel's playing time came when the Twins were down not one but two regular outfielders. The Twins didn't have anyone ready to play corner outfield that was left behind because Kubel was in the lineup. He actually had a decent April, as well, IIRC. It didn't turn out that Kubel wasted too much lineup time at all IMHO.
  6. stringer bell
    I've seen the "good" Masterson pitch enough to believe that if he's healthy, he can be a far above-average starter. He throws hard enough and the sinker is an extremely effective pitch. He was very effective just one year ago. One year plus a team option sounds about right.
  7. stringer bell
    Precious few long term free-agent contracts for pitchers pan out and even fewer are good value in the last half of the contract (when the Twins are being assumed to be contenders). Going for the elite guys isn't the right move and isn't the Twins style. So, pulling Scherzer, Lester and Shields off the table, what is the best move to be made? I think a Masterson or Anderson short-term contract would be the right move to make. I've said this in other threads--I think there is a decent chance for the Twins to be relevant next year. They had a playoff-caliber offense, but need to improve their run suppression dramatically by improving outfield defense (Bourjos, Schafer, perhaps Rosario) and getting much improved production from three spots in the rotation (a healthy Milone, a healthy Nolasco, May, Meyer, Masterson, Anderson, and maybe Pelfrey). They don't have a lot of depth among the position players and they need to replenish their bullpen, but they have a chance.
  8. stringer bell
    I was thinking Pelfrey.
  9. stringer bell
    Two ex-Twins demonstrate to me many of the flaws of WAR. Nick Punto gets great marks for his defense and has a career WAR of 15.0. Cuddyer gets dWAR deducted and has a career WAR of 15.9 with more time on the field than Punto. Without bringing contracts into the discussion, would any team trade Cuddyer to get Punto? Regarding contracts, Punto signed as a free agent in 2014 and made $2.75M last year. Since he left the Twins he's made $750,000 (2011), $1.5M (2012 & 2013), and the aforementioned $2.75M. Cuddyer left one year later and has made $10.5M each of the last three years and will make $21M over the next two years.
  10. stringer bell
    I never saw the original quote, but apparently Ozzie Guillen called him the fastest white guy in MLB. Bourjos would be a decent threat on the bases and BB Ref gives him positive numbers for base running every season. I don't think we can book above-average offense, but his career OPS+ is 94 and he'll play next year at age 28, not at the point where his skills will diminish.
  11. stringer bell
    After Masterson, Anderson is my second choice (Josh Johnson #3). Nice writeup by Nick highlighting his positives. I think an incentive-laden contract makes sense, because if he stays healthy, there's not much question he'll be worth pretty good money. Also, maybe a vesting option so that the Twins could perhaps get another year out of him if he's healthy.
  12. stringer bell
    If none of the young outfielders pan out in the course of the season, then Bourjos is the Plan B. If two of Hicks, Schafer, and Rosario succeed, Bourjos becomes a valuable defensive replacement, pinch runner and platoon partner. If all goes swimmingly, Bourjos could be flipped. I would love to see the Twins get a defender who is widely regarded as among the best in the business. BTW, while I believe the Twins want Santana to play short, I don't think the Twins will have forgotten the 70 games he played in the outfield. I wouldn't be surprised if Santana ends up back in the outfield. Several things could cause Santana to move back: 1) Santana struggles either defensively or offensively as the starting shortstop. 2) Escobar continues to show he deserves playing time. 3) There is lack of productivity from outfielders.
  13. stringer bell
    The last remnant of the Johan Santana trade is no longer in the Twins' system. Deolis Guerra signed a minor league deal with the Pirates. What are the odds that Guerra will make his major league debut with the Tribe sometime in 2015?
  14. stringer bell
    I agree that it is a long shot for Rosario to make the team and further, it is probably best to go with veterans or at least have veterans available to play. I want to make the point that Rosario isn't Aaron Hicks. I also would point out that in 2014, Rob Antony said (paraphrasing) that Hicks hadn't done anything to win a spot with about two weeks before they broke camp. I would dispute the "All-World" description to both 2013 and especially 2014. The Twins thought they saw a foundation and maturity that wasn't there when the games started counting. Just because Hicks failed and then disappointed in two chances to claim a job doesn't mean that Rosario will follow the same script. As I said before, the Twins may have learned it is prudent to have a decent Plan B for a 23 year old rookie who hasn't played above AA. Hicks also had the legacy of Kirby, Torii and Denard weighing on him, as well as being the only African American on the team (I don't know if that effected him or not). The last thing I want to see is having a position handed to Rosario or Hicks. I think that Hicks absolutely has to go to AAA and master that level. I would be less averse to giving Rosario a chance on the team despite his poor season last year because he hasn't failed twice at the highest level.
  15. stringer bell
    Protect the pitchers along with the obvious Sano and Rosario. Position players are very tough to keep if they're not playing and there is a 12-13 man pitching staff. Stashing a pitching prospect in the bullpen (in long relief) is a much more viable plan (it worked for both Johan and Pressly). I can't see a team keeping a Goodrum or Michael for a whole season.
  16. stringer bell
    Doc, according to Baseball Reference, Rios has played a grand total of 11 innings in left field. I agree with most all of the rest of your thoughts.
  17. stringer bell
    I'm going against the grain and I am pretty optimistic about the 2015 club. I think the Twins added several players who are part of the future, and adding a good starter and perhaps a strong reliever and an outfielder could improve the club greatly. From the OP, I don't agree with Colabello on the bench. He's had his chance and except for a hot month of April, he hasn't done the job in the majors. He's not really a left basher and he can only play first base (I never want to see him in the outfield!). I guess I mostly agree with the rotation and understand that a couple of runners-up will end up in the bullpen. Milone does have an option remaining, and if he doesn't make the rotation, he should be optioned. BTW, Escobar missed out on arb by a couple of days, so he won't make anything close to $2M.
  18. stringer bell
    Well, I would favor Bourjos over Rasmus. First of all, the cost wouldn't be nearly as much in terms of salary. Secondly, I don't think Rasmus is a fit. Look at the platoon splits--Rasmus' career OPS vs. LH pitching is .648 (.788 vs. RH pitching) and he has been platooned in the past year or so. That wouldn't be too big a problem, but the Twins already have three slated starters who struggle against left handed pitching--Mauer, Vargas, and Arcia (I also suspect that Santana will regress more against lefties). They really could use a right handed bat, besides Plouffe and Dozier or any random lefty reliever will come in and retire the guys with poor splits against southpaws. I am not sure that his power will play at Target Field. The power is what makes his OPS look good. Rasmus isn't the fielder that Bourjos is either, and he has missed a lot of games the last two years with injuries. For the price that is being bandied about, I'd rather accept modest offense and gold medal defense from Bourjos than go with what Rasmus has to offer for perhaps as much as $10M per year.
  19. stringer bell
    I guess the hip surgery wasn't a major thing. He is supposed to be full speed by spring training. Bourjos would be a #9 hitter for the Twins, or just about any MLB team. If he could make the defense much better, it might be worth it to acquire him. The cost? I am terrible at estimating, but maybe a mid-range prospect?
  20. stringer bell
    While I don't totally disagree, I think Rosario's sharp fall has papered over most of his disappointing regular season. For him to advance he needs to show maturity that some believed was lacking before his suspension. He also needs to show he has the tools, the temperament, and the production to succeed as a major leaguer. As far as his at-bats in Spring Training, I don't think they are "irrelevant" for a player trying to make an impression or make a team. It will go much deeper than Rosario's (or anyone else's) batting average. Hitting against big-league pitchers or candidates late in Spring Training is much more important than rapping a couple extra-base hits against a Double A pitcher who only was throwing fastballs during the first week of games. A lot has to go right for Rosario to make a run for a spot out of Spring Training. Since the minor league seasons ended, he has done what he needed to do. He would have to continue good performance at the plate, plus field his position well, plus demonstrate his attitude and off-the-field problems are behind him. If he is one of the three best outfielders in Spring Training, he should make the club. Still a long shot, but something that could be done.
  21. stringer bell
    I know you are enthusiastic about promoting prospects, Thry, but six at-bats is way, way, way, too small of a sample to say that Polanco "held his own". Ryan mentioned that he didn't master AA in one of the last pre-game interviews and I concur. Further, as much as I suspect Santana would have problems as an everyday shortstop, I have more doubts about Polanco's ability to hold such a position. I think he needs another full year at shortstop in the minors to show whether or not he is a potential major league starting SS.
  22. stringer bell
    I firmly believe that WAR does an injustice to Cuddyer. That said, I still am in shock that he got a QO after his injury-plagued season and even more surprised that he took the Mets offer. Could he have waited for the Rockies to match or exceed it? In my book, Cuddyer at this point is a good, versatile right handed hitter with age and injury concerns. I certainly wouldn't have wanted to go more than one year at a time with him. Best of luck to Cuddy in the Big Apple!
  23. stringer bell
    Polanco is a ways away and there are established players in front of him. Unless he's considered for a bench position, he's not coming north, barring a couple of injuries. Rosario has no one in his way and thus could be in Minnesota before all the snow melts.
  24. stringer bell
    Rosario did what he had to do to undo his disappointing regular season in New Britain. Most would agree that the quality of play and players in the AFL is a step up from AA and he had a good turn of about 115 plate appearances. There are gaping holes in the outfield and I still believe that Eddie could stick with the major league team this spring.
  25. stringer bell
    Certainly, the years of poor production have limited what is reasonable to expect for him. What he supplied to the Twins in 41 games was certainly serviceable. The team, of course, needs to have a backup plan. I think that he can provide such a contribution again. The speed and base-stealing is an elite tool. To me, that is the difference between him and a guy like Tyner, or actually Mastroianni, for that matter.
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