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stringer bell

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Everything posted by stringer bell

  1. stringer bell
    Agree with scottz above. Beyond that, aren't we really looking for a good defense corner outfielder? Buxton is the #1 prospect in baseball, by some accounts, and he is a fleet centerfielder. The Twins have a logjam of corner player/DH types and the missing piece in the outfield should also be a good defender plus a good hitter. I like Rosario for that role a whole bunch more than Hicks. I don't think Hicks will ever hit enough to be a full-time regular corner outfielder. I think Rosario can hit that much more than Hicks, just an unscientific opinion.
  2. stringer bell
    If the Twins want to protect their prospects, Schafer and Robinson should be in center field. I certainly don't think the CF competition has narrowed to Hicks and Rosario. Now to the meat of the above comment. The situations between Aaron Hicks in 2013 (and 2014) and Eddie Rosario this year is vastly different. First, this club is closer to contending, secondly the prize of the farm system may be ready to play this year and he certainly would then supplant either player. Third, Hicks least developed tools have been hitting for power and average for his entire career. Rosario's always hit until he ran into a drug suspension and I think his performance in the AFL plus a solid spring might undo a lot of what happened last year. Players don't develop the same and if Rosario won the job and then tanked, it would be important to replace him sooner. The Twins major error was sticking too long with poor performance, not once but twice, with Hicks.
  3. stringer bell
    It isn't just Santana vs. Escobar. This also includes center field. If Santana is 90% of what he was last year, he needs to start somewhere. There is a place for him to play in center. It could be long term that Santana develops into a 10th regular (I think that could be a good role for him), but center would be a good place for him and he should/could be a good defender there.
  4. stringer bell
    I agree with you, but the reason is the same one that keeps us coming back to Aaron Hicks--tools. Fairly or not, I think the Twins think that last year's version of Escobar is about as good as he can be. Fairly or not, the Twins see Hicks' undeniable tools and they think he can become a better player than Escobar. Santana also has tools that project to a better player than Escobar. In my book, Escobar earned a position over Hicks, even if it means relocating Santana at least temporarily.
  5. stringer bell
    I sincerely haven't seen anything that encourages me that Aaron Hicks will improve enough to be even a placeholder in center field. The supposed improvement after his minor league stint was negligible. He got on base better, but nearly completely lost any pop that he had in the previous season. He hasn't shown the ability to be above average in the field or on the bases. The tools remain in place, but he needs to show much improved performance. It hasn't worked to push him the last two years, why should this year be different. Rosario was mentioned as an alternate. Perhaps he could be a Santana or Vargas--guys that weren't that highly thought of, but who performed when promoted. I'd love to see Eddie win the job, but I am not going to be concerned if the season starts with Schafer backed by Robinson. I would be less than happy if that is the way the season ends.
  6. stringer bell
    Where to start the young prospects? Rosario at AAA if he doesn't end up starting with the Twins, Sano and Polanco at Chatanooga with Sano there only a month or so.
  7. stringer bell
    Not exactly the "A" lineup for Gibson.
  8. stringer bell
    Robinson is fine as the fourth outfielder and platoon option. He's been a plus defender and has good speed. My blueprint is for the consistency to come from the corners, but transition in center. Start the season with Schafer platooning with Robinson in center. If the solid performance by Schafer last year was a mirage, we should know by April/May. If Schafer/Robinson is inadequate, then whoever is performing best between Rosario, Hicks and maybe Buxton should get the recall. Also, if Santana doesn't prove out to be a good enough defender at short, he could move back to center.
  9. stringer bell
    I think that the upward arc in Dozier's career is about over. He is a fine player, but not elite. I expect that his batting average will rise a bit, but because of pitcher adjustments he won't hit as many home runs. I don't think any extension Dozier would sign would preclude the Twins from spending enough on other players to win, I do think that Dozier is a good enough player to be an asset on a team with a chance to win a World Series and I think the message to other players would be positive. To me, it is a mixed bag, but defensible if the Twins do extend him or if things break down and they go year to year for at least another season.
  10. stringer bell
    Sure the Twins can contend. I believe there is enough talent to contend, but they have so many question marks and so few sure things. Multiple things that are not certainties have to go their way. That said, I think the Twins have to start the season believing they are in the mix.
  11. stringer bell
    If things break so that there is room, it wouldn't be terrible to have a guy like Herrmann as the 25th player. I like the positional flexibility he would offer and he would be a left handed bat to pinch hit. As mentioned above, he has to be some kind of threat with the lumber because he is not a plus-plus defender. Having a guy who is more than an emergency catcher is a bit of a luxury, but at least it isn't like carrying three guys who can only play catcher. Guys like Herrmann get to spend disproportionate time in the major leagues. If the Twins were to cut him loose, someone else would pick him up and he likely would get some time in the majors with his new club. I wouldn't want him to be the backup catcher, and he likely could be send down and recalled all year depending on other roster needs.
  12. stringer bell
    That wasn't a very good play at all by Hicks. However, one play in the first game of spring training isn't going to convince me one way or another about Hicks' defensive abilities. The fielding metrics have been mixed at best. I have seen him make a couple of fine leaping catches at the wall, but that doesn't convince me of his overall defensive ability either.
  13. stringer bell
    I don't think it is a coincidence that Nuñez was listed as an outfielder on the Twins' roster. He is my pick to get a lot of starts against left handers in place of Arcia (not a platoon, but "rest" days).
  14. stringer bell
    I agree with the "don't platoon Hicks" argument. I consider him a prospect, but he needs to go to the minors to develop his hit tool. I think a month to six weeks of solid performance at Rochester would be sufficient, if he is the best option to take over center field. My projection has been for Schafer and Robinson to share center for the early days until one of the prospects (Hicks, Rosario, or the very unlikely scenario of Buxton) show they are ready by dominating in AAA or AA. Sure, there is a chance that the Twins make a deal or two before spring training is over. They have excess starters, an extra infielder and a chasm in center field. I have been beating the drum for the Twins to obtain Peter Bourjos from the Cards all winter. Earlier comments about bringing Polanco north, maybe Buxton etc. just don't serve to develop the players. I believe that Buxton and Sano are destined to be All-Stars, but they aren't ready. They (and Polanco) need lots of playing time at the right level. Right now that is AA.
  15. stringer bell
    The meme has been repeated and there's more than a grain of truth--Bartlett was brutal in two games, Escobar played a memorably bad game in center field and there's more. However, Danny Santana, after an understandably rocky start in center was more than adequate as a defender and was a godsend as the leadoff hitter. It could be that Danny Santana won't ever be a regular infielder. He could end up being a true super-utility guy. He wasn't good defensively at short in spring training last year. With another year's work in the OF, I think he would be an above-average defender in center or left.
  16. stringer bell
    Not to be too nit-picky, but Mastro had 12 plate appearances with the Twins last year. Further, the guy who played the most center field last year was the 23 year old Twins rookie of the year Danny Santana. If things play out that way in the spring, I wouldn't be broken up about it. Also remember, a major league season is really long. If Hicks or Rosario don't go north with the team, but tear it up in the minors, that would be fine. Having one of those two replace a Robinson by June 1 would give them plenty of time to gain experience.
  17. stringer bell
    Spring training stats are fool's gold. The sample sizes are small and competition is uneven--the early games feature a lot of minor leaguers and a smattering of major leaguers just getting their work in. I recall in 2013, Hicks hit three homers (all RH) in Clearwater with the wind blowing out and blowing strongly. That 3-homer game had a lot to do with Hicks' lofty numbers. If he isn't driving the ball, is struggling left handed, and swinging and missing a lot, that would trump a .300 BA or .800 OPS this spring.
  18. stringer bell
    I don't think minor league tendencies necessarily translate to major league performance. Two current Twins didn't hit for near as much power in the minors--Dozier and Arcia--while Arcia has faltered in plate discipline. Hitting is difficult and Hicks needs to show that he has what it takes to hit in the majors. It will eventually be up to both the front office and the field staff to determine whether Hicks has turned a corner. Jorgenswest wrote a good blog about the importance of spring training and it shouldn't solely be about statistics. What we know is that Hicks looked good the last two springs, particularly in 2013, but couldn't back that up with acceptable performance when the games counted. In that respect, the bar needs to be set much higher for him. The tools are there, but the performance has been lacking.
  19. stringer bell
    Will Buxton be back on the field by May 1? (Couldn't resist).
  20. stringer bell
    Danny Santana has been a shortstop throughout his career until (out of necessity) he played mostly center field last year. Where does Danny's defense stand as a shortstop? Watching him for a week in last year's spring training, it appeared to these untrained eyes that Santana had the tools necessary to be a good defensive shortstop, but lacked the focus and consistency to even by acceptable.
  21. stringer bell
    Hicks and Schafer as a platoon means that Hicks starts somewhere between 25 and 30% of the time. That is pretty close to fourth outfielder territory and doesn't allow a guy with pretty good tools to fully develop. I'd rather let Hicks get a chance to figure it out at AAA well enough to be a regular center fielder. Time frame in my opinion would be at least 30-40 games barring an injury. I have said on many occasions that since Hicks hasn't proven much positive as a major leaguer that whoever shows he is more ready between Rosario and Hicks should get the first recall. Buxton is another matter. He's younger and missed almost the entire 2014 season. He played less than one full game above A+. He needs quite a bit of AA time before he is promoted to the majors. We may or may not need Hicks as the CF, but increasing his value by being a competent hitter can't be a bad thing. He currently has little value due to his failure and/or disappointment with the Twins. While others may have succeeded with promotion directly from AA, Hicks' history suggests he needed to master each level and that means AAA time. His history is to struggle at each level, particularly left handed, and then thrive. He never has mastered AAA. After his failure in 2013, I thought it was a mistake to hand him center field without minor league time and I said so last year, so it isn't hindsight.
  22. stringer bell
    Agree 100% with Chi-Town above. I consider myself a harsh critic of how the player has been handled, but not of the player. I think handing him the center field job for the third time is wrong and short-sighted. Further, using him as the right-handed component of a platoon does basically give up on him being a starting center fielder. I am convinced that sending Hicks to the minors is the best way for him to reach his potential. If he hits well in Rochester, he could and should be on a plane back to Minneapolis before Memorial Day. The young man has tools, but I don't know if he has the skills to be a regular outfielder in the major leagues.
  23. stringer bell
    We all know that Milone was terrible for the Twins. We also know that he pitched very well for the A's without overwhelming stuff. In terms of performance, when the Twins acquired him, Milone's ERA+ was 100 (age 27), Nolasco's was 94 (age 31), Santana's was 99 (age 32) and Hughes' was 95 (age 28). Yes, his upside is limited, but his performance in almost three full years was as good or better than any of the other three veterans the Twins have acquired for considerably more money. Maybe he was injured or maybe it is the perplexing failure of veterans the Twins have picked up since things went south in 2011--Jason Marquis, Vance Worley, Nolasco and now Milone. In addition, they acquired Capps in 2010 to be their closer and he never was very good for the Twins, either.
  24. stringer bell
    I hope the Twins didn't ruin him by giving him the center field job the last two years and then keeping him in the majors too long. I continue to have the opinion that Hicks could still be a good major league center fielder, but he has proven nothing in the majors except that he wasn't ready when he was promoted. I think he needs to master AAA pitching even if that means a platoon of Schafer and Robinson in center to start 2015. Whoever is more ready between Rosario and Hicks should be the first recall.
  25. stringer bell
    I think you have more company with that opinion than you think. How many people asked if Hunter was going to play left when he signed? Quite a number IIRC. I don't think Arcia will end up always being a terrible outfielder, but he hasn't been even adequate to this point. I do think that experience and continuity will help the Twins' outfield defense. IMHO it is a waste of time for him to move to left only to move back whenever Hunter is out of the picture.
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