stringer bell

Three competitors for one spot. Nunez is the best hitter, has base stealing speed and plays five positions (although not well). Herrmann can catch acceptably, hits LH, and adds versatility of playing all the closest positions to the chalk lines. Robinson plays all three outfield positions and is a good defender. Added to the decision is Herrmann has an option, Nunez has none, and Robinson isn't on the 40-man.

Day 3 in Fort Myers yielded similar weather and the start of a pattern before heading to the ball fields. The morning ritual would be "bathroom, blog, breakfast". The minor league activity yesterday was well covered by Thrylos and Ashbury John. I will add only a couple things: when Perkins pitched, standing behind the screen with us common folk, were Strib writers Lavelle E Neale and Patrick Reusse. I shook Patrick's hand and chatted with him for a moment. The scribes left when Perk did. We arrived early enough to watch some major league BP. Hicks, Robinson and Torii were one group. We watched five or six turns and Hicks hit rightly for all but one turn versus Phil Roof, a rightly. The other group we watched was Mauer, Suzuki, and Plouffe. Tom Kelly was at the minor league games, in uniform with his fungo bat, but not sitting in the dugout. He looks pretty good, but isn't moving real fast. That's all for today. More tomorrow.

Nunez is out of options. If the Twins value what he brings to the table, he is on the team. I hope Pinto isn't pigeonholed as a "bat only", that really decreases his value.

Day two of my Fort Myers experience featured baseball. After a bit more room jangling, we got to Century Link hereafter known as Hammond or Twins Spring Training camp at 10 AM. We checked the minor league fields and watched pitcher's drills. The Rays were to be the opposition for the Twins farmhands on this warm spring day. Well before first pitch, we made the acquaintance of TD's own Ashbury John, who is in Fort Myers, living it up while his significant other slaves over a hot computer (I jest). John is a nice guy, much younger than me, who has somehow managed to escape the bonds of employment (voluntarily). We had a nice conversation on several light topics--life, death, family, marriage, WAR, Aaron Hicks--and agreed on many things,but not Shane Robinson. Ash and I tried to smoke out TD's Halsey Hall, using Trevor Plouffe references as bait, but either Halsey wasn't there or he was too smart for our ploy. With my precision timing intact, I left the minor league games just when they started just in time to miss the first inning of the tussle with the O's. I didn't miss Ervin giving up three straight hits and two runs in the second inning. Santana yielded another run the next inning, but looked better in the fourth. Ash joined us with the score 3-1 and together we witnessed some squandered opportunities resulting in a 3-2 defeat at the hands of the Baltimores. If I have more to say about the Twins, I will put it in the game thread. I want to close with an endorsement--a Fort Myers trip for a frozen Twins fan is a good thing. More tomorrow.

My journey to Fort Myers started with a phone call at 3 in the morning, notifying me that the shuttle would arrive at the Kwik Trip at 3:50 instead of the already too early 4:20. I arrived at "Terminal 2" at 5 AM for an 8:30 flight, but couldn't go through Security because I had arranged to help my brother when he arrived. The flight was fine-left on time, arrived on time--but still felt a bit like a sardine in the can. We upgraded our rental to an SUV and headed to our hotel on Sanibel. There the real fun began. The room wasn't ready. We ate outside by the pool under an umbrella. An hour and a half later, the room still wasn't ready. After at least a half-dozen trips to the front desk, things were pretty much settled. However, we will be in a different room tomorrow, more fitting with my brother's needs. We went out, grabbed a quick bite, got some incidentals at Pubinx and returned to our room at 8:30. It was then that I realized how tried I was! Today I repack, check out the minor leaguers and take in a day game. Hopefully, I will have the energy to do something later this afternoon and this evening.

I would go with Nunez, because Herrmann hasn't shown that he can hit at all. I do like a 25th guy with Herrmann's versatility.

The only player I know of that I think would really help the Twins is Peter Bourgos, who would be a major upgrade defensively over anyone the Twins would put out there. I understand that Bourgos would only be in center for a portion of 2015 and that he isn't a great hitter, but IMHO the biggest need the position players have is improving outfield defense.

I saw a note on the "other baseball" thread that mentioned that Chris Carter of the Astros was available and my first thought was "not the Twins" with their backlog of DH and poor-fielding corner players. I started thinking what the Twins might want to trade for and besides high-ceiling starting pitching, I really don't see what they would be looking for. I guess they could use premier talent at any position, but they appear to have starting depth (at least now), relief pitching depth and a prospect at almost every position. My point here is that it would seem unlikely that the Twins will be trading for any out-of-options types or any guys who would be only a small improvement over what they have. We have all noted that the starting corner outfielders don't profile as good defenders. There is a competition in center between three candidates who haven't set the big leagues on fire, and there are at least three positions where significant regression is (unfortunately) pretty likely. If the Twins were to trade some pitching excess (starting or relieving) who or what should they be looking for in return?

As long as there are lineups like the Indians and hitters like Arcia with huge platoon splits, I want a lefty or two in the 'pen, even if their platoon splits aren't that great. Duensing seemed to wear down last year, but he was pretty good for the first three-quarters of the season. Starters pitching deeper into games could help all the members of the bullpen.

I have him as the starting CF to start the year.

IMHO, Brian Duensing is the Twins' best lefty reliever. If they think they can contend, they need to have him. I'm not at all convinced on Thielbar. I'd love to see a lefty, other than Perkins, who brings it up there faster than 92. With Mason Melotakis out for this year, I don't know of a single lefty who thows hard in the upper minors.

I think you are on the money, Seth. Nunez hasn't hit great, but his track record is far better than Herrmann's. With relative rhinos, Plouffe, Arcia, and Vargas all in the lineup, having someone to pinch run for them would be a plus. I think Molitor also has to be convinced of Nunez ability in the outfield and second base. He made a bad play on a ball in the ninth inning yesterday. Herrmann has to show he can hit. In addition Nunez is out of options, so if he doesn't make the team he doesn't stay in the Twins organization.

I'm pretty sure Milone has an option remaining. Further, I don't think he profiles as a reliever at all. IMHO, either he makes the rotation or he goes to Rochester (grudgingly). I think Herrmann and Rosario were ticketed for Rochester, but have inserted themselves into the conversation with good performance to date. They have to be better than their competition to win a job going north. I'm not happy about it, but I think both Meyer and May are going to Rochester to start the season. Stauffer has to pick it up or the Twins will walk away from his free agent contract. Graham is a wild card. If Pelfrey continues to throw well, he could make the rotation.

I was hoping he would make the club. I hope he gets a recall sooner rather than later.

Probably wise to send out the guys who aren't going to make the club. I don't think it means these guys are hopelessly buried in the minors, just that they need to play. I liked what little I saw of Sano and Berrios, in particular.

Another factor in this saga is that Escobar missed the Super 2 cutoff by a couple of days. He will be paid serf wages this year. Next year, he'll be eligible for arbitration.

Slightly off topic, but where does Dozier and his .241 lifetime average hit in the Twins' lineup?

Other than Stauffer, most of the pitchers have been pretty good. Thielbar struggling here, however. Nunez didn't look like an outfielder on the ball hit to him in the eighth.

I think that is fair. My concern is that Hicks has been designated by some as the favorite or incumbent for no reason (IMHO). There are a lot of factors to consider--what's best for the player's development, who fits with the rest of the roster, whether they provide versatility, options, whether they can be effective off the bench--but no player should be assured of a job (or even the inside track for a roster spot) on the basis of the performance Hicks has had to date.

For some reason, I can't quote jokin, but I found two points made in Brisbee's analysis to fit quite well--1) There are a whole bunch of "don't trust 'em" players. Yes, they do. Plouffe and Dozier are the most established regulars, other than Mauer, and both have detractors and troubling stats. Both Escobar and Santana seem to be reasonable candidates for regression, and on and on. 2) "The Twins are weird. Can't figure them out at all". I agree that they are tough to figure. In my view, that just makes them intriguing.

I get your reasoning Brock. I probably even agree with you. I will say that Hicks and Rosario should start even in their pursuit of the starting center field spot. Hicks has done nothing in games that count to show that he belongs in the big leagues (same as Rosario). IMHO, both should be sent to AAA and the one that plays best should take over center from Schafer/Robinson. If that isn't what the Twins want, then whoever plays better this spring between Rosario and Hicks should get the first crack. I don't think Rosario's AFL stint or some good at-bats in spring prove anything, but they also might be clues that he has made a big leap. His play on the field and the evaluation of the field staff should determine where he is placed at the end of spring training.

I'll dispute one thing with Parker's analysis--Escobar has a plus arm. As others have stated, he makes the routine plays and he is versatile (in the infield). He probably won't ever hit for more extra base power than he did last year and I doubt he can hit .270 every year. I don't think Escobar qualifies as more than average in range/running speed. I don't think he would ever steal a lot of bases in the big leagues, even if he were a full-time player. I am among the unconvinced about Santana's ability to be an everyday shortstop and I know that he can't continue to strike out as much as he did and be a .300 hitter. I think Escobar is fairly likely to get regular reps at short before mid-season. As far as trading Esco, I think there are too many question marks to deal him right now.

To Thrylos points above, two things: 1) Dozier, more than most, made adjustments in 2013 which changed his hitting. The change is more dramatic than most and seems to sacrifice BABIP for slugging. Your graph shows this. 2) The thing that Dozier needs to do which would increase his BA (and OPS) without changing his BABIP much is put the ball in play more. Dozier led the club in Ks last year, if he could reduce that number to 90 or so, he could add 10-12 hits and still carry that low BABIP to an average of .260 or so. It's not as easy as saying it and it will happen, but there is room for considerable improvement without wrecking what Dozier is good at.

Danny Santana didn't project to hit .319 with an OPS of .824 in 2014. Aaron Hicks projected to perform much better than a .201 batting average with a .606 OPS. Eduardo Escobar was penciled in by most as a utility player and until the Twins acquired him, Jordan Schafer was a failed top prospect. All four of those guys got chances in 2014 and three performed well above expectations. Are we, as fans, supposed to ignore that performance because other players have better tools? I am influenced by performance on the field much more than an 80 rating from a scout. In my book, Danny Santana earned a starting position for 2015 by his performance in 2014. That doesn't mean he will be the starting shortstop because Escobar also performed well enough to deserve a starting shortstop job. Schafer only played two months for the Twins but he performed well for the team. I don't think he should be handed a job, but on the other hand, he shouldn't be ruled out. He has, after all, earned a chance to start for the Twins. Certainly he shouldn't be given a lot of rope, but he should be given a chance. Escobar, Santana, and Schafer are all candidates for regression. I just don't think it should be assumed it will happen. Sometimes, players defy the odds. The Twins should be ready for a downturn in performance, and have other options in place. It is great to speculate on the potential of the Sanos, Buxtons, Mays, Meyers, and Rosarios and they probably will get their chance sometime this year. I won't assume they will perform well as big leaguers just because they throw hard or run fast. Let the prospects earn their way by performing, not just looking good in batting practice or in the bullpen.

I am a Brian Dozier fan. There is a lot to like about his game, not the least of which is the way that he has improved. I've said before that while their personalities were polar opposites, Dozier reminds me of Chuck Knoblauch. Knobby kept improving facets of his game until he was a legitimate All-Star, and Dozier appears to be doing the same. In 2013, Dozier added power to his "toolbox" clubbing all of his homers from mid-May on. In 2014, as Seth noted, he added OBP by being in the top five in walks in the AL. I expect that Dozier will try to be a better two-strike hitter, raising his average while reducing his strikeouts. There is room to improve on defense, as well. I thought BD was terrific in 2013, and something less than that last year. Finally, there is clutch hitting. I know it is supposed to be random and no one is truly "clutch", but Dozier's numbers in close and late etc. were quite a bit worse than his overall stats. I think he overthought his ABs and got himself out quite often.