stringer bell

I come down somewhere between you two (Chief and RB). I think every member of the team is important and each has a role to play. Beyond that, I recall many people giving credit to Tom Kelly for "putting players in a spot where they can succeed". The 2020 Twins appear to have a position player roster where there are nine regulars and will have a deep and versatile bench with Gonzalez and Adrianza adept at multiple positions and a pretty close to ideal platoon partner for Garver, in Avila. Baldelli's challenge will be to get the maximum out of the players he has. In order to get the maximum, he needs to get the bench players enough reps that they can help the team win games and he needs to give the "regulars" enough rest that they stay as fresh as possible throughout the season. What is the right number of games for each player? Difficult to answer in a vacuum, but it would seem that less than 150 is desirable for most. Another consideration is when to rest guys. It would make sense to rest them when the bench player has as good or better of a chance than the so-called regular. In the Garver/Avila scenario, it would make sense to give Avila at-bats against right handers, since he is stronger against them and Garver is weaker versus same-handed throwers. Switch hitters Adrianza and Gonzalez can also provide a platoon advantage in certain spots. Both Arraez and Polanco were weaker against left handed pitching and Ehire had a higher OPS against lefties than either player. Meanwhile Gonzalez hit lefties better than Rosario did. So a case could be made in those cases that against left handers, Adrianza and Gonzalez should get many, if not most starts. Right handed hitters Sanó and Donaldson will also need some days off, which would give either Adrianza and Gonzalez more at bats. I see no such edge for Cave over either corner outfielder and Jake isn't really a center fielder, so I'm still not convinced he will even get a spot on the roster. Beyond that, I really don't see him as an ideal fit for the 2020 Twins, even though he has put up satisfactory numbers so far in his career.

If Cave's role this year is "fourth outfielder", he needs to be able to help the club win if he is getting a start or two a week. Last year he did not do that. When Cave got more regular play (from August on when Buxton got 0 plate appearances) he did quite well. Based on that admittedly small sample (and his 2018 season) I see him as not that valuable to the 2020 Twins. If the Twins had two right handed hitting regular corner outfielders, I would see a decent role as something of a platoon with Cave getting plenty of starts versus right handers, but that is not the case.

Twins' "starting pitching depth" is for this year only. Odorizzi, Bailey, Hill and Chacín are all on one year contracts. No matter what happens to the team this year, there will be turnover next year. So, if any of these three guys has a good year, they will have a very good chance to be with the big club sometime in 2021. Beyond that, we all know that every club deals with injuries and ineffectiveness. Last year, the Twins used 30 pitchers. It is not unreasonable that they will use in excess of 20 again this year, so all three guys might at least get a shot this season.

Chacín technically is on a minor league contract, which means he could be sent to Rochester without optioning him. Most likely, he has an opt-out clause, which would mean either he's on the team or let go altogether. I think Chacín has the inside track on the fifth starter competition. If he doesn't perform, the Twins still have Dobnak, Smeltzer, and Thorpe available, along with the return of Pineda and Hill.

Jake Cave has had a nice year plus for the Twins. He has a total of 537 plate appearances, so basically full-time play for a year. Last year, he picked up his OBP and played the outfield corners much more frequently than center. in 2018, Cave was basically a regular from the point he was recalled and in 2019, Cave spent quite a bit of time on the bench until Buxton was injured and basically lost for the rest of the season. My problems with Cave are 1) it is my impression that he does far better when starting consistently, rather than getting a start or two per week. I don't have any stats to support this, but my memory is that he was unproductive until he get his shot at regular playing time in 2019. 2) Cave is redundant. He is a corner outfielder who hit left handed, not a superior defender and doesn't offer explosive speed. I really can't see that would favor Cave over Kepler or Rosario.

Another way of looking at the additions to the trade is now and later. Right now the Twins get $10M when their payroll is as high as it's ever been and the Dodgers get Raley, a viable recall option at some point this season. Later, the Dodgers get a competitive balance pick and the Twins hope to cash a lottery ticket on Camargo, who isn't on the 40-man roster and plays a position of scarcity and has some tools.

The added parts of the Graterol deal come out about right. One for one, the Twins would trade Raley for Camargo and "win". Camargo is not on the 40-man roster and plays a position of scarcity while Raley is effectively blocked and has two players with higher ceilings in the pipeline just below him. The Dodgers wanted a higher valued prospect and will probably get him with the Competitive Balance pick next year. For that (future) prospect, the Dodgers are giving the Twins $10M. While it won't break the bank for LA, it does give the Twins a bit more money to play with this year if they choose to do so. Most here are saying that they would rather the Twins kept the pick, but I think it balances things for trading Raley for Camargo.

Between the lines, I had become a big fan of Marwin Gonzalez. I like the way he goes about his business on the field, never complained about moving around the diamond and was a good defender at multiple positions. Of course, I was also hoping he could have an encore of his career season in 2017. Off the field, I never heard much either positive or negative. Now we have verification that he participated in the scandal and he has expressed his regret. I guess I try to put myself in his situation and wonder if I'd do the same thing, particularly if everyone else was doing it. I'd love to say I would do the right thing, but I really don't know. I don't know what else Gonzalez can do, particularly when it wasn't just him. Also, he's no longer an Astro. I said earlier that the small price Gonzalez pays will be on his next contract. With career season nullified and also three years ago (four when he is a free agent), and with this scandal in the public, it is possible Gonzalez' career will be over after this contract or he will make considerably less money than he might have. Is it enough? Probably not. I suspect that cheating, in one form or another, is far more widespread than the general public knows. I guess those that get caught and express remorse do what most would do, no more no less. While I will forgive Gonzalez for what he did, I won't forget and I doubt I will continue to be a big fan of Marwin for his (most likely) final season with my favorite team. I will, however, hope that he helps the Twins win. I happen to believe the things Marwin provides will help the Minnesota Twins win games.

I doubt Chacín spends a day ay Rochester. Either he makes the rotation or they cut him loose, much like a young player who is out of options. That situation means he likely has the inside track for what is slated as the fifth spot in the rotation. He will have to show that 2019 is an outlier and that he isn't finished. I will predict here that one of the last two guys last in the rotation even when Pineda and later Hill are added to the available starters. Things happen and injuries or ineffectiveness from the three guys slated to front this year's rotation. As far as the last guy on the bench, I think it will be the versatile Astudillo over the redundant Cave and/or Wade. I expect that if one of Astudillo or Cave has a clearly superior spring, they will win the last spot, but I'll pick the Turtle.

Hamilton signed a couple of days ago with the Giants. I wanted him as a pinch-runner and defensive replacement for last year's postseason run. If the Twins are in a similar position this year, I think that would be a good move on or about August 31.

I don't want to sound all "sour grapes" on Graterol, but it is not a guarantee that he'll will be elite, even if he does stay healthy. The wipeout slider a triple-digit fastball are great, but we were saying the same thing about Fernando Romero. I wish Brusdar the best and hope he's real effective until the Dodgers play the Twins in the World Series. I wish that if the club was going to cashier a top prospect, they would have gotten top value, but Maeda is an intriguing arm and I think he will help this club this year.

Absolutely no reason to add Chacín until the last day before the Twins play their first regular season game. They now have a spot to claim someone who might help them, and with Hill going on the 60-day they'll essentially have two spots. Raley is an OF/1B. The Twins have higher rated prospects that play outfield corners and first base. I think Raley will reach the majors this year and he might be a pretty good player, but the Twins have Rooker, Larnach and Kirilloff.

The other thing on Maeda is that he's under contract for four more years, with minimal financial risk. At best he makes $13M a year and earns it by being a functional part of the rotation for the next four years. At worst, he costs just north of $12M and the Dodgers gave the Twins that much money anyway. Yes, the Twins traded the potential of Graterol, but they get a surer bet in Maeda.

I have to disagree. This club is firmly on a win-now path. They have added depth in their rotation and versatility with Maeda. With both Pineda and Hill out for more than the first month, they have veteran options and it is entirely possible that some of the veteran options they have acquired will stay in the rotation when (first) Pineda and (then) Hill become available. For the first two-thirds of 2019, the Twins had the five-man rotation start more than 90% of their games. I doubt they will have the same fortune this year. I don't want to dump on prospects, but Dobnak, Thorpe and Smeltzer are not top prospects. They did each have moments last year and I think it wouldn't be a disaster if any of them made the rotation to start the season. However, to count on them and need them to be positive contributors is not the blueprint of a team that is trying to win a championship.

Even though Graterol is younger, has MLB experience and throws harder, I believe the Twins think that Balazovic has more value because his arm can stand up to the rigors of starting long-term. I am not convinced that Graterol is going to be great this year and I am also not convinced he'll stay healthy even as a bullpen pitcher. He might be special and there is no guarantee that he won't be a starter. Time will tell.

Well Chacín will now have to be better than Smeltzer, Dobnak and Thorpe. Now there will be a bullpen opening for either Stashak or Romero, or one of the non-roster left handers.

Bobby Kielty was one of the guys I had an irrational affection for. He never amounted to more than a platoon guy and never became the five tool slugger I envisioned. I hated it when they traded Kielty for noodle-armed Shannon Stewart (and I was totally wrong).

Reading the MLB Trade Rumors writeup, it appears that Maeda could earn an additional $10M in incentives based on starts and innings. $13M per year is hefty, but it also provides protection in the event of injury or ineffectiveness. $13M is not too much to pay for a reliable 1-3 starter. He is under contract through his age 35 season. I really hope this trade pans out as the Twins could be looking to restock their rotation in 2021 no matter what the results for 2020 are.

I've also wondered about Graterol's body. type He's not tall and he weighs 265 according to the Twins web site. I'm not calling him out for conditioning etc., but questioning whether a guy with that type of body can be durable while throwing triple digits.

We shall see.I have not been as high on Graterol as most here. I just looked up Maeda on BBRef--he's a pretty solid arm in his early 30s. This club needs starters most of all and getting a guy for four years might to worth it.

I played golf down there several years ago with some locals and was concerned about some of the wildlife on and near the course. I was told that I should worry about things that "have their bellies to the ground" i.e. snakes and gators. I agree that a waterlogged ball is not worth the trouble given what is in the water hazards in SW Florida.

Signing Walker to a two-year contract would entail losing a player off the 40-man roster. Secondly, since he has five years of service time, it would require that he agree to be sent to the minors on something other than an injury rehab and, of course, injury rehabs are limited to a certain number of days. Finally, in a scenario such as this, if he's not available until after Pineda and probably Hill are ready, is there really that much for him to offer to a "win now" team? I like that Walker is youngish and he does seem to have plenty of upside if he can get fully healthy and down the road the Twins do need to fortify their starting rotation. I'm not sure if this is as good a fit as Walker can find right now.

I agree that cheating by using PEDs and cheating by using illegal means to know what pitch is coming are not exactly the same, but both are against fair play. Marwin hasn't been convicted or charged with anything yet and even if he was, he played last year without such aid (presumably) and was the player he was. Some in this thread have said essentially "throw the bum out" because they assume he cheated in 2017. If so, do they have the same opinion on those players who were suspended for PED (and masking agent) use? If we are only discussing the merits of Marwin Gonzalez the player, of course he belongs on a 26-man roster and he'll most likely be a vital cog on a good team. If he is a disruption for the team (I really doubt this), that would be another matter altogether. The whole Astros Cheating Scandal has not been divulged. If it is much, much worse the league will have to take further action. If it stops where it is, the organization and it's players (including Marwin Gonzalez) will have a stain on them.

It's up to the league to discipline any players involved, not the teams. Gonzalez was a good, well respected teammate, who was valuable on the 2019 Twins team. I would expect a similar performance this year in probably fewer plate appearances. If the league does nothing, Gonzalez' penalty will come with his next contract, most likely. At 32, he may not even get a major league contract especially if his offense doesn't improve in 2020, and his spike in 2017 will be chalked up to cheating. Before we get too ethical, remember there are three other players on the roster who were suspending for cheating with PEDs or their masking agent. Whether cheating with drugs or stealing pitches, IMHO cheating is cheating. If we can forgive Cruz, Polanco and Pineda maybe the same should be done for Gonzalez.

Something was very wrong with Chacín last year, but he has been a pretty good pitcher in the NL. His lifetime numbers are as good or better than Bailey's for example, and he's a year and a half younger. His lifetime ERA+ is 108, Odorizzi's is 106. Maybe his style is not conducive to everyone trying to lift the ball and hit it out of the park, but there's a chance he'll have a nice comeback year. I wouldn't be at all surprised if he makes the rotation out of Spring Training and I am not sure that would be a bad thing.