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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    Brinks truck, guarded by Pinkerton's finest.
  2. ashbury
    Yeah, but I slept better at night, at least until I noticed Direct Deposit had stopped.
  3. ashbury
    When times turned tough at Control Data and then Cray Research, I found that fingers in the ears and "la la la la la la la la la" worked best for me.
  4. ashbury
    About 14 pages. <*rimshot*>
  5. ashbury
    I think the signing wasn't officially announced until today, and the team has some small number of days to add him to the roster. He may stay in DFA limbo while they work the phones to construct some sort of trade that would make room, for example.
  6. ashbury
    Carter's a one-tool player. Bad contact tool, no defense/arm/speed tools. Was there ever a time that a one-tool position player was in high demand (say, $10M+)? Power isn't even considered the most important tool, compared to hit/contact. And if there ever was a time, analytics seems to have weeded those contracts out by now; astute bottom feeders like Tampa and Oakland didn't swoop in to outbid the seeming lowball offer, either of the past two years. Carter's an especially poor example, given that he was indeed out of the majors a year later, putting up suspect PCL numbers at Salt Lake in short duty. The non-bidders were right. Carter brings absolutely nothing to the table other than the homers. An OPS+ just north of 100 is not valuable when no defensive value is combined at all. The similarity to Cruz, an arguable two-tool player, is the risk at his age that he loses a tool. His 2017 numbers are worrisome with his hit-tool, and with another degradation he's Chris Carter. I want to go back to what you said earlier, which launched this tangent: I don't think power hitting has lost market value. Anomalous bursts of power that might not prove sustainable, or power that may soon degrade, or power not augmented by anything else, probably have.
  7. ashbury
    LoMo had a breakout 2017, too, and it was discounted by league GMs. I think TheLeviathan's principle applies just as well to Cron. Show you can do it twice, stay young, and then the big money may flow.
  8. ashbury
    So far, every post, including this one, contains the word "if". Which pretty much sums things up regarding ESan.
  9. ashbury
  10. ashbury
    Not sure if this belongs here, it being Amazon Prime, but I saw episodes 1 and 2 of The Marvelous Mrs Maisel on my flight the other day, and I recommend it highly. Rachel Brosnahan does a, well, marvelous job. The supporting cast is fun too.
  11. ashbury
    Ohio, Kentucky, Indiana. Tomayto, Tomahto, Ketchup.
  12. ashbury
    Agreed. Back in the day, other teams in a tight situation would pitch to Puckett and walk Hrbek. Of course Puckett brought more to the table on defense. But Hrbek was up there. But I disagree that a team needs to limit their number retirements to national HoF standards anyway.
  13. ashbury
    I don't keep up with things. A ranch near Cincinnati? LOL, my mom grew up in southern Indiana. After viewing this video, I think I know a large farm in the hills when I see one. And, by extension, a blowhard.
  14. ashbury
    On a three-and-out, the defense gets to rest more when the clock continues running after the running plays than they do when the clock stops after the incompletions?
  15. ashbury
    Why are we bringing up the Cy Young Award in a thread about Jake Odorizzi?
  16. ashbury
    Regardless of where each of us might rank Sano on such a list today, how depressing it is to think back to 2012 and imagine someone from the future coming back to tell us then that we'd even have a discussion someday about Sano being somewhere in the second-ten in a team asset ranking.
  17. ashbury
    This kind of recap is really cool. We had a clunker or two for rookies, but also some contributors and rays of hope.
  18. ashbury
    There's agreement here that the owner is not a sportsman in the sense we had a century ago for some teams. The team is treated as a for profit business. But only a business with cash flow problems would let a perceived financial mistake limited to a prior year affect their decision making for a coming year. Decisions are made based on market forecasts etc. And conversely a windfall profit doesn't carry forward. Pohlad does not have cash flow problems, and he's been explicit in the past about not carrying over unused payroll. The way Chief stated it fits my understanding as well.
  19. ashbury
    A stat like Wins isn't really a good reason to form your pitching strategy. But rest easy. If the pitcher who starts doesn't go five, he's not eligible for the win. Then the Official Scorer will decide who should be awarded the win, and it'll usually go to a guy who does go five. Odorizzi might even get the occasional cheap four inning win, so he should actually like the Opener strategy if they go with it routinely.
  20. ashbury
    Baseball-reference.com provides average age for batters, weighted by PA and games (in some mixture). A quick sampling across the past century: 1918: 28.1 1938: 28.4 1958: 28.4 1978: 27.7 1998: 28.9 2018: 28.1 Pitching is roughly similar. If I had better database skillz I'd draw you a graph using every year. Anyway I'm not seeing a definitive trend - we're about where we were 100 years ago. I'm actually surprised by that, since a long time ago it was commonly said that a player didn't reach his prime until 30. Turns out they didn't actually believe it.
  21. ashbury
    The presence or absence of a minus sign also plays a role.
  22. ashbury

    Flying

    ashbury replied to Squirrel's topic in The Sports Bar

    I usually leave my seat upright, at least until the jerk sitting in front of me reclines his and I need the space. (BTW the article which leads off "the past couple of weeks have seen a spate of confrontations among air travelers over reclining seats" is from 2014.)
  23. ashbury
    Mod note: Agreed, characterizing another poster rarely ends well.
  24. ashbury
    I see we are on the same page in this.
  25. ashbury
    It would make for a less interesting place if everyone operated under the same definitions. I do hope that Nick can extract from these various comments a way to further refine his description of how he values assets. I have asked similar of Seth when he provides his prospect rankings. Prospect A is ranked higher than Prospect B because he is... uh, more... um...what? One way to arrive at a sharp definition is to imagine a team liquidating its assets by auction. The highest bidder would scoop up Player B for $5M, Player A would fetch $20M, etc. While we amateurs would be purely guessing at these values, even a GM would be unwilling to sign his name to his estimates - no one can know for sure. But at least it would be something pretty well defined, and would allow for a ranked list. But... since teams don't liquidate, and haven't done so for more than a century, would this neat and tidy definition correspond to any kind of actual reality? I have my doubts. Also, highest bid for each player, would not necessarily correspond to any given bidder's rankings of all the players. There are some paradoxes contained even in thought experiments (which here boil down to game theory), to say nothing of real-world complexities. It's hard. I don't forecast real satisfaction from pressing Nick too earnestly. JMO.
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