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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    Probably a sinker does the trick, as well.
  2. ashbury
    If I'm reading b-r.com right, May's opponent OPS changed hardly at all in his second year in the Eastern League, .759 -> .757. Maybe the coaches planted some seeds of change that will pay off at AAA this year. I hope so.
  3. ashbury
    I'm not quite sure whether the focus of these ratings is on 2014, or maybe on 2015. Catcher, for instance, seems covered in one way or another for 2014, regardless of whether Joe plays an inning there, so I don't see it as a one-bobber, but may be a problem in 2015 if Pinto doesn't turn out to be capable and when Doumit is gone, so the position bears watching. Third base and Center are problems on opening day 2014 unless one of the touted prospects is actually ready, but likely are both strengths by 2015, so depending on the focus they could be one- or three-bobbers.
  4. ashbury
    Not to harp, but are you saying a) he'll accept your $9M contract in preference to some other team's 3/$33M?, or no other team will offer remotely that much money (which is my own number, but not that far from TD's Offseason Handbook guess of 3/$30M)? What better/longer deal do you think is the tops any of the other 29 teams will offer?
  5. ashbury
    My guess is he'll accept the $33M three-year deal some other team offers. Do you match/raise?
  6. ashbury
    In that case add him to my untouchables list.
  7. ashbury
    Approves: Jose Uribe Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com
  8. ashbury
    No, his son is named III Ortiz.
  9. ashbury
    Not that Bill James's similarity scores are official or anything, but take a look at Beltre's "most similar to" list on b-r.com, and compare to his "most similar through age 34" list. As it stands, he's ranked with members of the Hall Of Very Good, but he's on track to be an Outer (Not Inner) Circle HOFer if he can keep going at his present pace. To me, this confirms my view that he doesn't pass the (What If He Got Hit By A) Bus Test.
  10. ashbury
    In his favor, his last name anagrams to Belter. I have trouble getting excited about him, though. To me it's not a hall of Stats, it's a hall of Fame, and I'm fine with it being partly subjective. But he's got some more time to win me over.
  11. ashbury
    Yes, and Edwin Encarnacion wasn't the least bit happy about it.
  12. ashbury
    I'm more than fine with minor league signings too. I just took issue with the part about replacing Duensing.
  13. ashbury
    This year the Rawlings Gold Glove awards have a SABR-inspired analytic component. Jack, any thoughts about that?
  14. ashbury
    At AAA this year Thompson had a 1.4 WHIP, and he didn't have a lefty-righty split that would suggest a LOOGY role either. Nothing else in his career leads me to forecast him to do even as well as Duensing if he got the chance. I'd see him as organizational depth only.
  15. ashbury
    For present discussion purposes I don't think Stewart can even be traded until June or July, per league rules.
  16. ashbury
    Moderator's note: Let's keep the signal-to-noise ratio at a record high level, folks. Parker didn't mention, but it's probably obvious, that this is a thread the moderation team is watching closely. Review the Comments Policy if you need a refresher on where the "risks" lie; most members have nothing to worry about.
  17. ashbury
    Baseball-reference.com has a tab for players who have played in Japan, so if you go to Randy's page there and click on it you get this: Randy Messenger Japanese League Statistics & History - Baseball-Reference.com
  18. ashbury
    Pulling this question of mine from the other thread... Jack, have you been tasked to look at the business side of things as well as player evaluations? For example, airlines and hotels have expertise by now in a well-developed field of Revenue Management (or Operations Research, more generally) - do the Twins engage in anything that might fall into that category, for example to consider the business ramifications of losing 100 versus keeping it below that threshold?
  19. ashbury
    I am interested in a non-rhetorical version of this question, and more generally would like to ask Jack if he's able to tell us whether he has been tasked to look at the business side of things as well as player evaluations. For example, airlines and hotels have expertise by now in a well-developed field of Revenue Management (or Operations Research, more generally) - do the Twins engage in anything that might fall into that category?
  20. ashbury
    S'il était français, il serait en effet le dire de cette façon. / disclaimer - Google Translate is entirely responsible if this means I actually just ordered a bowl of stewed umbrellas
  21. ashbury
    Way more nuggets than I had any right to hope for. Thanks for the thoughts.
  22. ashbury
    A related question: what advice would you give someone young who has an interest in the field of baseball analytics eventually as more than just a hobby? Say, I don't know, somebody's son who is currently a junior in college and majoring in statistics? (Just to be clear, he's at school in Seattle and thus anything useful you suggest would cause him to pester the poor Mariners, not you.)
  23. ashbury
    That may be because you're not, to my recollection, someone we've needed to remind about the TD Comments Policy, where it is explained in a little more detail. To buttress glunn's post above, here is a link to it: http://twinsdaily.com/minnesota-twins-talk/8837-revised-comment-policy-september-2013-a.html
  24. ashbury
    It's been like this forever.
  25. ashbury
    Splendid taste in women, my friend. I believe my wife and I raised our daughter to be a similar catch.
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