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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    Puts a damper on my trip down to Phoenix this weekend, as well.
  2. ashbury
    Hadn't noticed that, but it wasn't stellar, was it? Checking the guys with the most innings in RF, I would suggest both Bautista and Cruz as having markedly better seasons at bat than Torii, and Victorino was at about the same level. Still, it's a vote, not just a ranking by OPS or whatever, so they can make it whatever they want; maybe it's not as much fun to vote for a lower BA player like Bautista.
  3. ashbury
    The defense.
  4. ashbury
    Terry may believe you need a MnPASS to ride on 94.
  5. ashbury
    My particular response was to Thrylos's comment about MiLB FAs. I should have used Reply With Quote, in order to be clearer, although I thought that would come through when I said "organizational filler". But your scenario probably has a feasible exit strategy: deadline (or earlier) trades of the suddenly expendable pieces. Note, this is not the same as the strategy of signing guys with the express purpose to flip them. Would be a nice problem to have, wouldn't it?
  6. ashbury
    I'm hopeful someone with better knowledge of the particulars than me will explain who among this lengthy list isn't being blocked by... their own progress.
  7. ashbury
    Organizational filler is signed all the time. Who's being blocked?
  8. ashbury
    A guy who is 37 and still playing for his original team is probably so good that he was up in the majors well before then. Even this year's class of 37-year-olds who have moved around, which of course is the majority, include guys like ARod, David Ortiz, and even Torii Hunter (who we all thought took FOREVER to reach the majors) who were getting starters' playing time before even their 24th birthday. This is not to say older rookies aren't worth cultivating, just let's not go overboard.
  9. ashbury
    To me, free agency is the penalty the FO pays for not developing all the pieces they need for a winning roster. Just plead guilty, pay the fine, and move forward.
  10. ashbury
    As someone who raised a girl and lived through the teen years and listened to the stories, I too challenge the notion.
  11. ashbury
    Like I said, intimidation. It's what brings it beyond harassment. What would compel a 300 pound tackle to hand over thousands of dollars to a similarly-sized teammate? Certainly not because it's continued or systematic; junk calls come to my phone daily and I don't give anyone money, I just hang up. It's because Richie Incognito located a weakness. I don't think we know enough yet to guess what that weakness was, although the voice mail transcript gives several possible leads. No, that is neither fair, nor correct. I use the term bullying not for emotional purposes but to describe something that went beyond either hazing or harassment.
  12. ashbury
    Really? Between the transcript of that phone message, and the allegations of huge sums of money being demanded, this sounds like someone's lunch money being taken on the playground, on a grownup scale. Bullying seems like the right word to me. Harassment is when you can't get the other guy to stop. Bullying is when you find you have practically no choice but to say yes, or fight. Persistence, versus intimidation.
  13. ashbury
    Go big or go home. SIGN ELLSBURY OR CHOO. / disclaimer - this is not my own recommendation of signings
  14. ashbury
    Looks approximately correct. There are a couple of sources I know of for verification. baseball-reference.com currently has links on their front page, when you click on teams in the standings, that show their financials for 2014 and beyond, and Cot's Contracts at Baseball Prospectus has similar spreadsheets. So, we don't have to guess, or rely solely on friends in other cities. For StL the specific links these bring you to are: 2013 St. Louis Cardinals Current and Future Payrolls - Baseball-Reference.com https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0Ah4PW47PiAi-dGJnWFhuY3I1SjZTNkdRN01JNy1OaVE&output=html Both these show a commitment of $75-76M. They don't seem to take into account approximate expenditures on arbitration-eligible players, though - that's down in the "noise" region of financial forecasting, I guess, but still puts the team on the hook for a somewhat higher total than shown, maybe $85M when all is said and done. In any case, yes they'll have room to acquire some serious talent.
  15. ashbury
    There's a bit of difference in a 23-year-old coming up to the majors and needing a season to adjust, and someone 26. It's not impossible that Florimon improves at this age, but it's unlikely he reaches Gagne's level on offense; he also could regress.
  16. ashbury
    Morneau's chart wasn't drastically different. But the tool does allow you to select by zone, i.e. slivers of the field going from home plate to the outfield, and maybe that makes it easier to spot small changes. Try turning off all the zones, then turn them back on one at a time, say starting with zone #1 (down the 3rd base line) and 2 and 3, plus 11, 12, and 13 (down the other line). Seems to me it makes clearer that when he made outs Justin was going the opposite field a bit more in 2013. Don't know if it qualifies as a significant change, or what use to make of that insight; SSS is a risk. Picking someone like Jason Kubel who had a qualitatively different season in 2013 than 2012 maybe is a bit more interesting to look at (when he pulled the ball he had trouble getting it to the outfield grass), but then you don't necessarily need a tool when a guy is going just plain badly.
  17. ashbury
    Moderator's note: Guys. A slippery slope is being descended these last few posts, each time the words are about each other rather than the points you're trying to make. Find better ways to state your positions - it's a matter of fine-tuning.
  18. ashbury
    There comes a time to spend on an average major leaguer (they don't grow on trees). That's when you are a contender and there is a gaping hole at a position, where even an average guy would shore things up. But we're not there now, and I agree with looking for higher upside than Morneau can offer, however much we respect his past contributions.
  19. ashbury
    Houston, did not copy; over.
  20. ashbury
    The tool does, by hook or by crook, pair him up with Gaetti, Rolen, and Santo, none of whom were considered shabby with the leather. Rolen could get in, Santo's already in (by the epidermis of his molars). Beltre's in good company, and could get in; I'm not ready to proclaim he's IN.
  21. ashbury
    The SB could be a plus. From everything I've read, the defense could be a minus despite the tools. Another Florimon rehab project at bat and in the field, in other words. I wouldn't give up much for him.
  22. ashbury
    Scratching my head a little over this particular direction of analysis. Someone good enough to be brought up to the majors for good at age 23, and then takes the ball essentially every five days injury free for five years, with a better than average ERA until a somewhat off-year this year (but an xFIP suggesting a bounce back)... and the innings are a red flag? He's thrown a lot of innings because he's pretty good.
  23. ashbury
    Moderator's note: the back and forth between two members on the side topic of metrics has probably about run its course - if by chance either of you feels motivated to pursue it further, how about starting a fresh thread on it?
  24. ashbury
    I don't see him as a good fit anymore.
  25. ashbury
    I don't trust inflated PCL stats for batters. Hard to see him as an upgrade over Florimon at all.
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