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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    At higher salary, probably, than the Astros will be paying Gregerson. And for roughly similar reliable results, but maybe Beane likes him better (Fangraphs projection for him is a little better too). EIther that or Gregerson simply would not consider re-signing with the A's, which I suppose a player might do if he doesn't like the ultra-small market dynamic there. Kind of a loss for Beane, all told, considering he gave up Seth Smith to get Gregerson, whom the Padres flipped for starter prospect Brandon Maurer. With perfect hindsight, and ignoring the 2014 contributions of the players, Beane could have acquired Maurer, and still had the salary room to obtain the Yankee Nat Clippard.
  2. ashbury
    Painstaking research1 reveals it to be the 2012 Oscars. 1Meaning, I googled for 45 seconds and made the call
  3. ashbury
    Every Costello needs his Abbott to set things up.
  4. ashbury
    Least optimistic scouting report I've seen on them to date.
  5. ashbury
  6. ashbury
    Yeah, that's the problem. In effect, a minor league contract will still end up with a 40-man decision by Opening Day, in all likelihood. You can say that the 40th man on this team isn't worth worrying about - but is an aging Johan the guy you want to trigger such a move?
  7. ashbury
    That little crow-hop at the end of his delivery, in the "Before" picture, can't signify anything good either, can it?
  8. ashbury
    Yep, by cracky, you're right.
  9. ashbury
    Pure AAA contract, that's a no-brainer. But even a AAA contract with a March 30 opt-out (or April 15, or April 30...), that starts to represent an opportunity cost (even if a minimal one), where innings that go to him during the critical decision-making time in Spring are taken away from someone else who might be more relevant to the team's future. As always, it comes down to the fundamental scouts' opinions, and if they say he can still bring it, as opposed to "maybe he'll get better by Opening Day", the potential benefit starts to outweigh the small cost. A guaranteed major league contract? Whew, the scouts need to be right about him then, because there really is no room at the inn.
  10. ashbury
    http://media.youthink.com/images_quiz/2014/07/26/full_698552038.jpg
  11. ashbury
    Baylor had a nice postseason though. Memorable, even. In a 7 game World Series, tiny differences could have swung it a different way.
  12. ashbury
    My snap reaction would be to reach out to people who have been working on defensive metrics for a long while. Two names that come to mind are Chris Dial, and Vince Gennaro. Both are SABR members so I could put you in touch with them if you wanted. The purpose would be to ask if this is a computation that has been looked at in the past; it's not good to be trapped by the orthodoxy of the "experts" but neither is it good to ignore their experience. Just as things like BABIP are in principle supposed to even out but sometimes don't, I think a year's DP and TC totals could be skewed for an individual player if the total opportunities are far from the norms, and I don't know how to easily get the number of situations where there is a man on first and fewer than two out.
  13. ashbury
    This would be a good explanation for Ryan's slightly cryptic remark, that wouldn't be hiding something bad, merely difficult to state tactfully.
  14. ashbury
    Nous sommes tous Charlie.
  15. ashbury
    That could be because Ryan was referring to something that might not be known to fans during the season. Inside Baseball, indeed. I love the frankness, but was surprised Ryan went there.
  16. ashbury
    I was pleasantly surprised to see this post from my friend Dan, and just want to take this moment to recommend anything that comes from his word processor. You can expect a meticulously researched treatment of the subject; but you guessed this already from seeing his writeup here. Should be good reading.
  17. ashbury
    I wish I knew where it went wrong. I replayed some video from his introductory press conference. http://www.foxsports.com/north/clips?s=172306 Of course, you wouldn't expect anything amiss in that situation. But the benefit of hindsight often lets you see things, or at least think you see things. No red flags waving for me there.
  18. ashbury
    Here's one more thing from the interview, right at the tail end. Asked specifically about Nolasco, he said, "we need to fix Ricky Nolasco.. and [get] him engaged with this franchise... it was a little bit of a struggle for him to want to belong." You like frank comments from a GM? Wow. Pretty damning, particularly about a player who had just signed a large contract the previous off-season, though he tried to soften it a bit by going on to offer praise for pitching hurt. It ties in with the infamous Nolasco tweet about wishing he was back in LA, which at the time I wasn't sure was corroborated by any particular rumors or rumblings.
  19. ashbury
    Too many players have cluttered the 40-man these past few years, where the addition has been accompanied by "and if nothing else, he can always DH."
  20. ashbury
    Old saying: nobody needs left-handed pitchers, what is needed is pitchers who can get left-handed batters out.
  21. ashbury
    Lou Grant: You know what? You've got spunk. Mary Richards: Well, yes… Lou Grant: I hate spunk. / why yes. I am old. Thank you for asking.
  22. ashbury
    From the TD Comment Policy: A minimal level of grammar and spell-checking is required. Nah, we'll let that slide. Oh, and yeah: the bickering and overly personal take on things. The poster you (I think) were responding to has reiterated that he's not saying TR doesn't deserve to stay GM1, so there's been no call for sword-falling etc. It's a Terry Ryan thread, so some of this can be expected, but enough. Time to dial it down a notch, everyone. 1Double negative there, but I think I'm following the logic
  23. ashbury
    Fair enough. Hopefully you can see how the shorter wording could be subject to misinterpretation. I'll offer in response to your view, that Ryan might not have made the same moves in a different market with a different franchise. The expectations in that market might be proportional to the team's revenue, and maybe Ryan's plan would still have been to build up the farm system but slightly less aggressively (trading only one of his CF, say), and the answers to "how do we bridge to that coming wave of players" could have involved players different than Willingham and Doumit, for example. His job security in that unnamed other market could well be about the same as here and now.
  24. ashbury
    I won't speak for Gunnar but when I saw "Job security he likely wouldn't have in any market that stressed winning" I thought it amounted to "undeserved job security", which in many discussions would be followed by "he should be fired". Help me out here, since it's now sounding like you meant something different.
  25. ashbury
    I expressed my share of skepticism (and maybe then some), but share your hope.
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