ThejacKmp

How are they way above? The Orioles made the postseason in 2016, 2014 and 2012. LCS in 2014. That's 3/7 years with Machado. The Reds made the playoffs in 2010, 2012 and 2013. The Angels only made it in 2014. Mike Trout has played three postseason games. And Mike Trout is way more of a star than Votto and especially Machado. Trout is likely the best player of his generation and is on track to potentially be the best player of all time. The Angels only have him two more years and are going to have to start thinking about trading him if they don't compete by the break next year. It's criminal to make the playoffs once in nine years with Mike Trout.

What were the Royals thinking? Herrera is one of the better relief arms there and they skipped the whole arms-race-at-the-deadline thing. I know nothing is guaranteed but you know that teams are going to want in on relief arms, they are every year. It's not like they got some "can't help but take this" offer. The Nationals are all-in this year. The Twins are not. A team like the Nationals should be thinking of buying in mid-June. A team like the Twins should be thinking about playing out the string a bit to see if they should buy or sell (it'd be one thing if they needed something major but we're talking a platoon catcher and a 4th OF as the big needs - hardly holes you need to fill immediately). I'm fine with the Twins letting those two markets play out while they see if the offense can take off.

I'm talking more about this team, not two years ago. Richards makes $7 million, Shoemaker makes $4 million, Skaggs under $2 million, and Heaney and Tropeano don't even make $1 million. For a big market team with aspirations, they've invested almost nothing in their big league rotation. They haven't been in on big free agent pitchers and they haven't signed the solid depth guys like Lynn. Of those guys, only Richards and Ohtani (who they were pretty lucky to get) have upside higher than a #3. You can't go into a season with 3/5 of the rotation having missed most of the past two years and think, "We're going to be fine!" And it's not like they've spent that money on a deep lineup. They're old and ineffective. You really could only project a good season from Trout and Upton this year. They've gotten one from Simmelton but everyone else has been about what you'd expect (except Kalhoun, he's been terrible). Bad lineup, unrealistic rotation, average bullpen. That's not a well-conceived team. They were dependent on Ohtani being a superstar to make the playoffs as a wild card. They got lucky that he was and then unlucky that he got hurt. But any GM that rests a team's hopes on a 23-year two-way guy from Japan isn't doing a great job.

Polanco too. And who would be surprised if Dozier went nuclear for two months? Nice thing for the Twins is that Rosario/Escobar seems relatively sustainable (maybe more Rosario than Escobar) and guys like Kepler, Dozier, Morrison, Garver, Buxton, Sano, and Polanco all have the upside to make this offense scary. With the pitching solid, how many really need to get hot to set the Twins on a streak? 2 or 3? Didn't even mention the positive effect of having steady Mauer around.

God that would be the worst. Imagine looking at the Yankees and Red Sox and being as bad as the Orioles. Ugh. The Twins are at least looking rosy for the future. A young developing core with some high-upside MILB arms and the ability to compete now. And the Royals and Tigers are in the process of bottoming out while the Indians are starting to see the end of their window. The White Sox have tons of prospects but not all will pan out (hopefully!) It's a bit dark now but overall, not a bad spot to be in for the Twinkies in the AL Central.

Not sure what Angels team you’re looking at. This Angels team is top heavy and frankly, has overachieved. It’s not an awful team but the role injuries have played for the Angels has been overstated. • Ohtani is obviously a big loss but he was also markedly better than anyone would have expected coming in. He wasn’t a guy you could pen in. • Garrett Richards is really the only other major player who has missed time. And Garrett Richards missing time should be expected at this point as he’s started a total of 12 games the past two years. He’s a good player but not someone who should make or break your season. • Guys like Zack Cozart and Kole Calhoun have also hit the DL but those guys have been pretty awful so missing them hasn’t been a big deal. The Angels have had 15 guys hit the DL but they haven’t been particularly good players. The real issue is that this was a pretty risky team to begin with: LINEUP: The biggest issue for the Angels is their lineup is pretty awful – it feels like those top-heavy Tigers teams. They have Trout and little else. The Angels have gotten a career year from Simmons and what counts as a bounce-back year from Pujols and even with that are pretty deficient. The non-Simmons infield is super old and ineffective – Pujols and Kinsler have predictably struggled, they bet on Cozart after a career year out of nowhere, and Luis Valbuena has taken a big step back at 32. Upton is having the season you’d expect and is a good player but he’s really the only guy besides Trout who is having the good season you’d expect. Calhoun and Chris Young have both been awful at the other corner. In short, the Angels once again trotted out a lineup of Trout, a few good players and a lot of drivel. They haven’t developed any cheap, effective position players and that’s killing them. Again. Trout is great but you can’t depend on him every game. ROTATION: Those Tigers teams were hit-and-miss but they got away with it some years because they had dominant pitching. The Angels had Ohtani and Richards but other than that, they’ve actually been way luckier than they could expect. Skaggs is outperforming his FIP by a half run and Barria by 1.7 runs. Andrew Heaney is having a bounce-back year but he’s started even less games than Richards these past two years. The Angels rotation was “hope Richards pitches a full season, Ohtani is an ace, and we can cobble it together otherwise”. They’ve gotten luckier than they should have on the back half of that but depending on Richards and Ohtani seemed pretty risky and has turned out rather predictably. BULLPEN: The Angels pen sits middle of the pack. They’ve lost some arms to injury but no one especially damaging. This is about the pen they could expect to have. I don’t see a well-put-together team. I see an organization that continues to try to take shortcuts and is paying for past mistakes. Pujols salary hurts their ability to cash in with free agency and they make strange decisions with the money they have (Zach Cozart was one of the more questionable offseason signings and bringing in Kinsler was a pretty risky proposition). They’re dependent on catching lightning in a bottle with guys like Simmons and Kinsler and while those work out sometimes, you’re almost always better off using young guys who might develop into something better than expected. Poorly constructed team. They only have two more years of Trout and they’re wasting it. No one should be surprised if he ends up in pinstripes halfway through next year.

Complete and utter aside. I was reading an article about Mike Trout and started playing around with his stats on Baseball Reference. Turns out the AL team (interleague has small sample so excluding NL teams) he has the hardest time with is the Twins. However, this year we only have two payers (Rosario and Escobar) with a higher OPS than Trout has against the Twins (.873). And we're the team he plays the worst against. That's crazy. Mike Trout. It's sad the Angels seem to be intent on wasting his talents.

He knows about Reed.

I forget where it was but I saw it here on TD. It might have been the game recap where Adrianza pinch-ran for Grossman? They had a chart with everyone's speed: Grossman surprisingly fast, Adrianza, surprisingly slow. Eye test is influenced by position I imagine. SS are supposed to be fast. Morrison makes a bad 4th OF too since he's left-handed. And sucks in the OF. It's just a shame if that happens - every concept indicates he'll likely be a decent player at some point. Guys don't generally just lose it at 30!

I guess that depends how well you think Adrianza can handle outfield? Is he an emergency guy or is he a guy who you feel is on a par with Grossman? Grossman is much maligned in the OF but he at least played it a decent amount. Mauer and Buxton mean bye bye to LaMarre and Cave. Maybe they'll try Escobar as a 4th OF? He's played the equivalent of 30 full games out there but it certainly wouldn't be ideal. I'd hate to give up on Morrison this early. He's got too decent of a track record against righties to be this bad.

The Twins are 1-0 in Matt Belisle Era 2.0

Adrianza gets a lot of deserved crap here but he's not a bad utility infielder. You could ask for a bit more speed on the basepaths (most shocking statistic of this year is that Grossman is faster than him) but he handles the glove well and is a switch hitter. He's just been overmatched playing everyday. Too bad his days are numbered when Polanco comes back. Hard to see him sticking on the roster then.

That ’06 pitching staff was so top-heavy though. Yeah the ’18 Twins have no one like Johan but Liriano only started 16 games – I think a full season of Berrios would beat that. The ’06 Twins had Radke on the downslope of his career, Boof Bonser, Carlos Silva, Scott Baker and Kyle Lohse. I’d take the Twins current #2 through #6/#7 starters. That ’06 team had better starting pitching for the playoffs but during the season not so much. Different eras but starters in 2006 had a 4.50 ERA and in 2018 they have a 4.23 ERA so pretty equivalent. Bullpen is no question, 06 was really good. Where I think the 2018 Twins could be markedly better is hitting. That 06 team was so top heavy – Mauer and Morneau with OPS+ over 140 but only two other guys over 100: Cuddyer and Hunter. Having five below average hitters in your lineup is pretty brutal (to be fair Bartlett was a 99 OPS+ so slightly below average). By contrast, the 2018 Twins have struggled at the plate and still have five guys (of the 10 with 100 AB or more) at 100 OPS+ or higher (and Rosario and Escober have a higher OPS+ than Mauer in 06). The guys below 100 are Garver, Adrianza, Sano, Morrison and Grossman. Adrianza will be replaced by Polanco, Garver should get some help at the deadline, Grossman will be replaced by Buxton/Mauer, and Sano and Morrison’s track record shows they have a good chance to pick it up. The 06 lineup was top heavy and the 18 lineup has been top heavy as well. But in 06 the big moves were Punto and Bartlett. Those were fine but the 18 Twins have a lot more potential to explode with Buxton, Sano, Morrison, and Polanco ready to come back and step it up. You could very readily have an 8-deep scary lineup by July 1st – and Garver also has the potential to be a decent stick. These Twins could go on a run like 2006. They have deeper pitching and the lineup is scarier. The pen will have to step it up but it's not a liability. And maybe you won't need the pen if you're suddenly scoring 6-8 runs a game and getting consistently decent starts?

You're not the only one.

Agreed. Get he's young and could develop but as a plodding 1B/DH he's gotta hit for power and strike out less. It'll be interesting to see if he drops in midseason lists.

A lot of Troy Williamson references on the boards lately. Did he do something recently that put him in the public eye?

How about getting rid of an Adrianza and using an Escobar/Polanco? And getting rid of a Robbie Grossman and using a Joe Mauer? Getting rid of a Ryan LaMarre and using a Byron Buxton? The Twins have been banged up. Health would be a big step.

That's a good call. If Sano or Morrison is DHing you worry but with Mauer back that won't happen. It does mean a lot of Escobar at SS but you live with that for the bat.

Yeah Buxton back means Cave and LaMarre both go down (unless Cave really hits and forces you to keep him up and platoon with Buxton) and you get that 13th pitcher. To my mind: Polanco = Petit down Mauer = LaMarre down Buxton = Cave down Kind of tricky since Mauer seems likely to be first back and Buxton might be third.

This offseason I was arguing that the Twins should look to move Escobar. They had Dozier and Polanco with Gordon, Javier, Lewis and Arraez coming up. He was superfluous and about to get expensive. Man was I wrong. The Twins missed an opportunity when they didn't sign him this offseason. They probably could've gotten him on a 3 year, $15 million deal. Now they may be paying $15 million for a single year. Oh well, hard to predict this explosion but what a missed opportunity.

I think a better idea would be to drop Petit. It leaves you a little thin in the middle infield and in danger of losing the DH/needing to play Rosario at 2B in an emergency but Petit isn't playing and is 20 games from being superfluous when Polanco comes back.

Really good to see all the Dozier hate. That means he's about to bust out in a big way. Strangely, I predict no one will be commenting "I really thought we should bench him for Gordon, my bad".

Great work, how many catchers move to SS and are known for their glove? Disclaimer: I understand that I'm about to comment on a life that is not my own and choices that are not my own. But . . . A little taken aback by Hocking talking about missing so much of his kids' life. He made $5 million as a pro and is eminently qualified to be a high school or traveling baseball coach in his local area. He presumably missed a lot of their childhood when he was playing. I guess I just really don't get being so absent when you have no financial reason to be. Is being a minor league hitting instructor or coach so much more validating than coaching high school? Does he have a shot to manage in the big leagues? Again, I get its not my life but I really wouldn't make the same choices and have a hard time wrapping my head around why someone would. Not seeing your daughter play in the World Cup would be a deal-breaking moment for me.

I'm eternally bothered by MLB scoring on plays like Navarez getting thrown out at 2B in the 7th. He was clearly safe at 2B and then came off the bag. To me, that's a double, not a single. If he ran around 2B and then tried to make it back and got tagged, it'd be a double but because he overslid, it's a single?

Woah chill. Just a harmless joke at the expense of a former twin, not a personal attack on you. Take it easy. Ben Revere had one year with an OPS+ above 100 and that was 103.That's tough for a noodle-armed OF who is best in LF as a result. I think Ben Revere would be exhibit 1 for people putting a bit too much emphasis on .300 (and batting average).