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ThejacKmp

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Everything posted by ThejacKmp

  1. ThejacKmp
    1.) Most Twins fans now claim to hate the move but back then, the reaction was decidedly more mixed. This is the TD version of the "I was at the Bill Mazeroski Shot Heard Round the World game." 2.) I was one of many people who liked the move back then and I like it still today. The move was reasonable (Phil Hughes salary has not hamstrung the Twins and he has not blocked any ready prospects) and just didn't work out. Sometimes the end result is bad but it doesn't mean the process was bad. The Twins got a great season out of Hughes and because of the two years left on his deal, they had the leverage to get a team-friendly extension. That involves a gamble but it was a reasonable one, especially when you think about how hard it is to find an ace. And Phil Hughes had an ace season. He was 27 with the stuff to make it seem like it could be legit. Potentially having an ace for 5 years is worth what the Twins paid. I know this because the Twins are still looking for an ace. It's hard to lure one away (Darvish showed us that non-elite markets and teams need to pay way extra to get top pitchers) and it's hard to develop one (Berrios is likely a #2, Romero might be it but it's early and Graterol looks like one but throws 100 which is scary injury-wise). I thought it was a good move then and I stand by that today. It's easy to hate on the decision because it didn't work out but 2014 Phil Hughes was probably the best shot the Twins have had to find an ace or near-ace pitcher. They took that shot and I don't fault them for it - you miss 100% of shots you don't take.
  2. ThejacKmp
    This is crazy talk, an absurd hot take. Lance Lynn has no injury and has a long track record of success. He's been bad but it would be really shocking if he just all of a sudden forgot how to pitch at age 31. He's also not signed for next year so if you want to build his trade value, you have to start him. If nothing else, it's be insane to release him since he'd be a nice arm for the bullpen as he's always had a reasonably high strikeout rate. You'd also be bringing Gonsalves up and starting his MLB Clock in order to get maybe 1-2 starts before May and Santana are back. This would be the definition of a move with no point.
  3. ThejacKmp
    "Recent performance is a pretty good predictor of short term success." That's the part I think people assume because it makes sense in your head but I'm not sure it's truth in reality. Ryan LaMarre was hot to start the season but it was because every ball he hit found grass. Just because he hit a bunch of singles to start the year doesn't mean that he's a good bet to keep doing so - he's a subpar player who is likely to revert to the mean. I'd want the guy who has been cold but has more talent. I can see it if there's some adjustment that a guy needs to make or he's in poor shape or something. But all things equal, it seems to me that the better player should play, hot streaks be darned.
  4. ThejacKmp
    I think my "expectations" are eminently more likely to pan out than the predictions of the doom-and-gloom set. I also think it's crazy how many people think that the only source of salvation comes from the minors. Very few minor leaguers come up and have immediate sustained success. Even if they do, the league adjusts to them. I thought the Twins had a good team on paper this spring. I think that's still true, I just think they're banged up or have had some guys who haven't played well. I think Logan Morrison and Dozier are going to be above average bats. I think Sano and Buxton may not be superstars but won't be as bad as they've been. I think the rotation is in fantastic shape, Lance Lynn or no Lance Lynn. I think we get too focused on recent events and ignore that bigger picture - the division doesn't have anyone remarkable and the Twins have a team where a lot has gone inexplicably wrong and doesn't seem likely to continue going wrong. It's that old adage about two guys running to first with the same time and the coach picks the one who has poor form because that one can be fixed and then he'll be better.
  5. ThejacKmp
    The issue is the oft-cited concept that Ryan Lamarre's past should not matter much because he has a "hot bat" and thus deserves a call-up more than Jake Cave - a guy with a better track record and who is four years younger. When you drill down the analytics show that the BABIP is massive and unlikely to continue but that doesn't matter -- he has a hot bat. It's weird because it feels like a phrase Gardenhire would say but it's relatively meaningless. Recent performance is less predictive of overall success than long-term historical performance. I don't think it's a big deal in day-to-day lineup construction but overall, it seems like a myth.
  6. ThejacKmp
    Yeah, I guess I'm talking more in general than specific people. The general tone in the TR era felt like "Why do we go with Old Baseball Truths and hunches" and the general tone now feels like "These guys are too smart for their own good." My hypothesis is that we like to complain no matter what.
  7. ThejacKmp
    1.) Most team's third catcher is Bobby Wilson. That's just the nature of catching. 2.) What RH OF should they have found? Go look at the free agents signed - none of them are any good. The best of the bunch was Carlos Gomez and he's not been great. Also, they never even had a shot at Gomez because they were offering a 4th OF position while Tampa was offering him a starting job. It's easy to complain the Twins should upgrade Grossman but hard to find the actual upgrade (before the season, the deadline is definitely easier to do that). 3 and 4.) Escobar was the backup plan for Sano and middle infield. Then Polanco got suspended. Hard to see where they should have been looking - you can't just find capable middle infield players when someone gets suspended 2 weeks before the season. Adrianza has not been great but he's been acceptable. Once Sano comes back, Escobar will play a decent amount of SS and the Twins will be okay. Adrianza has been overmatched as an everyday SS but that's the nature of injuries.
  8. ThejacKmp
    Grossman OPS the last 20 games = .848. He's been producing. LaMarre career AAA OPS = .718. He is who we thought he is, recent BABIP-driven hot streak not withstanding.
  9. ThejacKmp
    Outside of Gordon, this is pretty extreme. Wade makes no sense for the Twins roster. He hits lefty and is not an ideal 4th OF for platoon purposes. He's also never sniffed AAA so lets not rush him to the majors where he's a clunky fit. Grossman isn't amazing but his OPS the last 20 games is .848. Hard to see Wade doing better . . . Lynn has a track record of being a solid starting pitcher. The Twins should give him until Santana returns (or May forces it) to get things right. He's still striking guys out, he's just wild. That can change. Releasing him now is tough - he doesn't need many starts to rebuild some value. Plus, Gonsalves has only started 8 games in AAA. He can use a few more. I can get into Gordon for Petit but I hope that's a stop gap. Polanco/Sano will be back eventually and then Gordon will be in Adrianza's role. I'd rather he's down in AAA playing every day. The jump from AA to the majors is not an easy one. Funny how TD used to rail against TR FO for not following analytics. Now we're back to the "hot bat" theory and want the Flavine FO to react to recent results rather than long-term data.
  10. ThejacKmp
    I think you are. The Twins were smart to give him 10 days to get fully recovered. I imagine he'll be itching to get back before that is half up.
  11. ThejacKmp
    Even with his insane start, LaMarre only put up a .718 OPS in the majors. He's hot now but his OPS in 256 AAA games is .734. Jake Cave has a AAA OPS of .809 in 203 AAA games. And he's four years younger than LaMarre. And he's hit the ball well so far. I'm glad to see that the FO doesn't ride the hot hand theory or let a week of high BABIP influence the decision. Cave has a better track record and is a better prospect. He deserves to be called up ahead of LaMarre.
  12. ThejacKmp
    See I feel positive. Dozier is bound to get hot. He's just up and down,Sano will be back and since he's taking at-bats from Grossman/Cave, he doesn't need to be that good.Buxton will get it going. Maybe not MVP style but he's just shaking off the rust of a long absence.Kepler and Rosario look really good.Castro went down but Garver is a better bat anyways. It'll be great when the Twins get healthy and he's batting 8thYour angst on Morrison is crazy - he had a bad start but he's consistently been an above average hitter and he's raking it now. A very nice piece.The rotation outside of Lance Lynn has been great. Odorizzi is underrated, Berrios/Romero show flashes of dominance, Gibby is backing up last season with a few duds.Lance Lynn has 2-4 more starts to figure it out and then May/Santana will replace him. Lynn is better than this but there's an expiration date so either way the Twins should be okay.The pen has stabilized. There isn't anyone shutdown outside of Reed but it's a deep group that should get better with May/Lynn entering at some point.The Twins have had just about everything go wrong that could and they're still only 2.5 back of an Indians club that just doesn't look as good as people thought. That's great, things are bound to get better for the Twinkies as they get more games against the division.
  13. ThejacKmp
    I'm always sad that the Brewers went to the NL and not the Twins. When I think about those mid 00s teams that were starting Jason Tyner at DH, I think "We could have been an NL team, we could have been an NL team." Because that's what you are when Jason Tyner DHs.
  14. ThejacKmp
    I hate when we face Lefties. Especially without Sano and Polanco. DH Grossman and give Morrison the night off?
  15. ThejacKmp
    Would he accept it? He's going to want to start to build value for his next contract. Going to the pen would hurt him financially. Then again, pitching like he is would too so maybe he'd go for it?
  16. ThejacKmp
    I can't see why they'd pull him for a promotion. Trade or injury but I think we'd have heard rumblings of a trade by now.
  17. ThejacKmp
    Mike Pelfrey's first 11 starts that year: 8-3 with a 2.28 ERA and a .654 opponent OPS. It didn't start out a bad decision. People forget it because Duffey was the story at the end of that year but Pelfrey carried the Twins through the first half of the season. And then the wheels came off.
  18. ThejacKmp
    Perhaps it's a matter of argument. If you're arguing "release Hughes so we can get Buesnitz or Vargas up" it's maybe not as convincing "We need to release Hughes to get Santana into the mix."
  19. ThejacKmp
    Can you move him to the minors? He can't have any more options. He'd have to pretend to be injured and make rehab starts.
  20. ThejacKmp
    Pretty lame how many didn't answer the question by saying "Something will happen next two weeks to make the decision for you." Even if that's true, answer the dang question. What do you do if they're all healthy? I only heard two good ideas: 1.) Lynn to the pen. He knows he has two weeks, if not he's pen bound. 2.) Six man rotation. This maybe makes you cut Hughes but that's something you might just have to do. But overall, answer the question.
  21. ThejacKmp
    Would not get it done. It will take at least two top prospects (think Gordon and Gonsalves) plus mid-range guys.
  22. ThejacKmp
    Two thoughts: 1.) That's got to be crazy to have to tell a pro athlete that they're done for the year AFTER you do surgery. They're knocked out and you don't have time to chat with them when you make the discovery. It's just bad news to break as they wake up. 2.) Gotta upgrade Bobby Wilson somehow. I don't want Realmuto because it'll be too expensive but Lucroy at the deadline wouldn't be the worst idea. Depends on the cost.
  23. ThejacKmp
    Realmuto would cost significant prospects. When Lucroy was traded in August 2016 with 1.5 years left on his contract at age 30, he cost the Rangers Baseball America's #16 prospect and #64 prospect (though the Rangers got a decent reliever as well). Realmuto is 27 and has 2.5 years of control left. He would likely cost you multiple top prospects - think Gordon and Gonsalves plus something else. That seems like WAY too much to solve a 4 week problem. Not sure what Lucroy would cost. He's more of a rental player but it's also early in the season so you have to overpay to get a guy like him (the A's may want to wait for the deadline, especially since they are 20-21 and not out of it). Stand pat at catcher. It's 4-6 weeks and Garver has looked good.
  24. ThejacKmp
    1.) Lamonte Wade solves nothing offensively. He's an upgrade over Grossman defensively but does not profile to be some power bat. The prospect hype far exceeds reality. 2.) Nick Gordon is an interesting idea. Not sure the defensive drop off from Adrianza to Gordon will be worth the offensive pickup but it certainly makes sense to drop Petit and bring up Gordon. I'm not sure I'd play him everyday and I'd send him down when Sano gets back so he can get more seasoning (unless he forces your hand) but he'd be a nice spark potentially. 3.) Castro is back in 4-6 weeks. No need to go crazy dropping prospects for Realmuto (whose OPS+ is not much bigger than Garver's) because what do you do when Castro gets back? Not play Garver? Seems like a crazy overreaction to a 4 week problem. I also think it's not fair to blame the Twins for not having a great third catcher. Almost nobody has a great third catcher unless they have a prospect in AAA. Bobby Wilson is likely similar to most other guys you can get (though Gimenez would be fun to bring back for a reunion). 4.) The biggest thing is to just wait. The Twins are winning games against good teams and they're not getting blown out of the games they lose. There are natural lulls to offenses and this is just one of them. The solutions are all in house (Sano back, Polanco back, Buxton healthy, Castro back) and none are all that far away. Tread water around .500 and make a push in the second half.
  25. ThejacKmp
    Certainly most trades take place in July but there are trades of consequence that happen in June. 2016: James Shields traded to White Sox by Padres 2015: Mark Trumbo moves from ARI to SEA as ARI ties to dump payroll These two both seem like decent comps. Veteran guys who are biggish names but who don't fit a fading team are dumped early because of payroll concerns and a need by a team that wants to contend. The Twins have a definite need for a 4th OF who hits RH. I guess here's a question: Would you trade Wade or Granite (and the five to six years of control) for McCutchen (and his salary) today? I wouldn't with Wade (he's only 24 and may develop a power tool that could make him useful) but I think I'd pull the trigger with Granite. He's almost 26 and seems like a 4th OF - that seems reasonable to get a guy who makes more sense for a team with hopes to contend. Thoughts?
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