ThejacKmp

I joined in the 12th after I came home drunk from bowling. Regretting and not regretting it today.

This Twins rotation could be pretty solid for a potential playoff series (knock on wood) if Berrios is a #1. Santana is an acceptable #2 when he gets healthy and Lynn/Odorizzi/Gibson are likely to include okay #3 and #4 options. The big thing would be if Romero/Gonsalves is ready to come up and Liriano this thing to be a #2/#3 option. Obviously doesn't match up with the Nationals or Cleveland rotation but it's not far off of the rest. Of course that's in an ideal world.

Ryan LaMarre has a 1.000 BABIP that will not stand. Part of that is that he has struck out 5 of his 12 at bats. And he has no extra-base hits. If he had a normal BABIP we'd be calling for him to be cut. He's a nice story but he's not someone who deserves a role any bigger than the one he currently has. Morrison doesn't look good but trying to trade him or DFA him is ridiculous. You couldn't sell any lower. He's only 30 so it's unlikely he's dropped off a cliff. He's got a career 109 OPS+ so he's got a track record of success. He's just in a big slump. I'd like to see the Twins give him the Tampa series (revenge games sometimes shake a guy out of a rut) and, if that doesn't work, sit him for the Yankees series to give him a breather and get out of his head. Logan Morrison will be fine long-term. We just have to be patient. Robbie Grossman I'm more worried about. 2016 looks more and more like an outlier the further we go into this season. It's looking like the Twins should be thinking about upgrading their 4th OF at the deadline.

Why do you say he obviously isn't this good? He's got great stuff, a great motor and he's young enough to be taking a step. I'm not saying he will stay this good but Berrios always had ace ceiling. He just might be reaching it.

Not taking it personally. Just saying that if your interest is to spark a discussion and learn, "you're not going to convince me" tells people you're not interested in them responding. They then are not likely to respond. Too many people take this attitude towards subjects vastly more important than Mauer (gun control, abortion, race) and it makes the world a worse place.

Yeah but what's your chance to score multiple runs? Your scenario works if we're talking tie ballgame bottom of ninth and need to score A RUN but we're not. We're talking high leverage situations - late in a close game. That could be Twins up 5-4 or Twins down 5-3. It could be the seventh or it could be the 10th. There could be one out or two outs. Getting multiple runs makes you more likely to win and multiple base runners make those runs more likely to score. I find it hard to believe that multiple runs is the same with those two situations. P.S. "you're not going to convince me" is a bad way to contribute to a discussion. It ends the inquisitive process and makes it about forcing other people to agree with you.

Joey Votto takes that pitch. Is he not a great hitter? Your definition of great hitter is pretty narrow. Mauer is pretty widely considered to be a great hitter. Not a great power bat but a great hitter. Never has bad at-bats, always goes up there with a plan.

Okay. In that situation, there was a guy on first with two outs. Every model of scoring runs would say that you are better off getting a walk and getting that guy into scoring position. Grossman isn't particularly fast so most doubles don't score him. Mauer isn't a homerun hitter, that isn't his game. Sano already hit a single off of Kluber earlier in the game so he's not helpless up there. You also don't know that Mauer wasn't sitting there looking for something. He might have been sitting on a breaking ball or a changeup. He may have been looking for something on the outside half and it was inside half. P.S. "Mauer hate" means casting shade Mauer's way, not that you actually hate him. These kids and their lingo.

Also, Sano was facing left-hander Andrew Miller, not right-hander Corey Kluber. So by taking the walk he got the platoon advantage working for the Twins. This criticism makes no sense. The walk was absolutely an ideal outcome.

This is an interesting way to look at things but I think it's flawed. There are two positive outcomes in a late-inning situation, not one. Getting the run in is obviously ideal. But so is "not making an out". Your research didn't take this second positive outcome into consideration. If a batter doesn't make an out, he gives the hitters after him a chance to hit - with a chance to score even more runs since more guys are on base. Since Mauer generally hits #2 or #3, that's a pretty good hitter after him (you could make an argument that a guy hitting 7th should swing away more since the guy after him is likely weaker). He should get some credit for the success of guys who hit after him. I don't want Mauer to change his approach. It works. It predicates his overall success. If he's switching approaches, who can say that he's able to continue his typical success? Hitting is about repetition. Mauer seeing pitches and having good at-bats is a great thing for young hitters - they get to see the pitcher and they get to see what professional hitting is like. P.S. I see people ragging on Eddie Rosario for swinging out of his shoes trying to win games, striking out easily. Same thing with Buxton and Torii back in the day. And yet we rag on Joe for consistently having good at bats. Think about it. When's the last time you saw Joe Mauer have a bad at-bat? I can't think of one. That's something that should be celebrated, not criticized.

In a 5-1 game in late innings against a top pitcher, I absolutely want him to take a walk. Every statistical model you would look at would say the same thing. The way you can tell that is that Cleveland didn't intentionally walk Mauer when it was 2-0. They wanted him to swing. Getting Sano up to bring the game within a run is 100% the right call. If he swung away on 2-0 and grounded out, you'd be wasting the opportunity. Putting more guys on base late it always a good idea. If the guy after Mauer doesn't get it done, that's not Mauer's fault. Sometimes the Mauer hate seems to be just for the sake of complaining.

I'd be interested to see where the idea that the Cubs would not have drafted Mauer comes from. Makes sense to go Tex but I've just never heard it. If the Cubs did take Mauer, his career would be interesting. He would have quickly become a fan favorite and one of the more recognizable players in baseball - Cubs have the national spotlight almost as much as NY and equal to Boston. He's also not leaving the Cubs as they would have the money to match anyone else. Being a lifetime Cub is a pretty crazy thing. He'd have been in the playoffs throughout the 2000s as the Cubs made it in 2006 and 2007 and were a competitive team much of that time. I'd think that even if everything happens the same with concussions etc., Mauer would be a Hall of Famer with the Cubs. That national attention would make people appreciate his peak that much more.

That's an interesting thought. No way the Cubs do it but Mauer by 2002/2003 was an elite prospect so it might have been a relatively fair trade. The Cubs were too competitive to make that trade but Chicago would have loved them some Mauer. I'd pick 15 years of HOF over 2-3 years of a slightly bigger WS chance (Prior helps but those Twins teams had some big gaps in the lineup), But I get the other way around.

Speaking of tangents that are not well developed . . . 1.) Mauer is the reason for the mentality of "good enough"? What evidence do you have? I hardly think Joe Mauer is responsible for how Terry Ryan and the Pohlad's think. Mauer had little effect on the Twins payroll in the 2000s and its hard to see how they would have added more players without him. In fact, Prior would cost more so you'd see less free agent purchases. 2.) How would what happened in 2010s have happened in the 2000s? The Twins would have been competitive with Santana and Prior. AJ wasn't Mauer but he wasn't bad. Nathan would be a loss but a closer is overrated. This seems like an assertion based on little - similarly, what makes you think Terry Ryan would have been out a decade earlier? 3.) Why do you think they get a ballpark with a roof? What does drafting Joe Mauer have to do with the ballpark not having a roof? Does Joe Mauer insist on living under open skies? I think it's more likely that the Twins never get Target Field without Mauer. Losing Santana and Hunter made many Minnesotans a bit more amenable to the cost of a new stadium since no one wanted to see Mauer a Yankee.

Oh this is not the real Joe Mauer. He'll certainly fall back to earth. But this fast start makes me feel better about him being able to replicate last year's stats. For one thing, he's bankrolled these games. For another, he's having great at bats so it meets the eye test. Agreed that the big thing is what the Twins other options are. 1) They don't have strong internal candidates unless Rooker goes nuts and Sano can't play 3B etc. 2) The free agent market looks pretty barren - Mauer might actually be the best candidate at 1B since he's certainly above Matt Adams, Lucas Duda, Chris Carter, Pedro Alvarez, Adrian Gonzalez and Chris Parmelee (the 1B free agents I located). DH has Victor Martinez, Evan Gattis and Nelson Cruz hitting the market. I don't see the Twins making a move on one of those three, though perhaps Cruz or Martinez might be interesting. Hard to see a better external candidate and internally, there seems to be a place. Depends on the money but Joe doesn't seem like he'll demand a ton and it's in the Twins best interests not to try to screw him. If he wants to play and is reasonably effective I'd see a 1 or 2 year deal for sure. EDIT: I'll take that back. Lucas Duda might be an equivalent option to Mauer at 1B. He is perennially underrated and underpaid. $3.5 million this year for a guy who hit 30 bombs last year and put up an .818 OPS. He hits lefty too so that makes it tougher too. Joe has more OBP and better D but they're not dissimilar value wise. I still don't see the Twins going after him since Joe means more and Duda is a bit redundant as a strikeout-prone three outcomes guy. But worth saying that Duda is not on the same replacement level as those other guys.

Huh? Just because no one got paid that much in 2013 doesn't mean that no one was worth that much. Players can have extra value beyond what they're paid if they perform well. In fact, this most regularly happens with star players. By stats and on-court performance, Lebron James and Kevin Durant are worth two and three time what they're paid in the NBA but because of the cap, they get paid less that that. Your third center who gets paid $5 million is getting way more than his value - that's the result of collective bargaining. Baseball isn't as drastic as the NBA because of the lack of a cap but owners are constantly using their leverage to drive salary down. I'm not going to get into collusion this past offseason but it has clearly happened in the past. Guys like Kershaw, Harper, Trout etc. produce way more than they are paid, even with astronomical salary. Mauer in 2013 is similar. He was early in a contract that was set up so that, in an ideal world, he would exceed the yearly value on the front end and come up short on the back end. The concussion changed that but it's not weird that he would exceed the $23 million on the front end of the contract.

What's your argument for him not being worth it in 2013? He put up 5.6 WAR. For context, that would put him around Pedroia, Rizzo and Lindor territory last year. That's pretty solid company. I know he played 113 games but 75 were at catcher and were gold glove quality. Definitely worth $37 million with that offense at catcher. As far as steroids, that's ludicrous. Mauer was in line for a big extension no matter what, that year aded some dollars but wasn't the reason he got a big deal. It also wasn't a contract year, he was a year away from free agency. If you look at those home runs in 2009, almost all of them were in the first five rows in left and left center field. He hit most of them at home and took advantage of the Metronome having a short field. Also, you just don't know Joe if you think he was on steroids. There's no player in baseball I'd be more shocked to hear was on roids than Mauer. He only drinks milk. I'm violently opposed to saying anyone was on steroids (ball juiced is ridiculous since it wasn't juiced for just Mauer) unless you have more proof than "He hit 28 home runs one year and never hit more than 13." That's irresponsible, even for an opinion.

Yes.

Can we take a minute to say how crazy it is that his OPS is 7th with no HR or 3Bs? I know it's small sample but even so, you'd think that enough guys would've hit 5-8 HR and be ahead of him. Speaks to the insane OBP he's been putting up this year.

That table is a creation of my own but it's based on reputable sources. Fangraphs lists a player WAR and calculates what each point of WAR is worth per year. From there it's just multiplication and addition. Feel free to check the math but I did it twice and got the same numbers. Not sure about your 2013 point either. Mauer had an .880 OPS and played 75 games at C. That's pretty valuable even if it isn't 120 games at C. No one is saying the contract paid off. If you read the chart, it says that Mauer has not provided the value of the contract. Says it pretty explicitly. He'd need a 6.0 WAR season (basically Joey Votto) to make the contract with it. He'd basically have to play pretty near the level he's playing right now all year. My point is that he's close to being worth the contract (conservatively assuming he ends up with 2.0 WAR he'd end up being $40 million under the contract - which averages out to like $5 million/yr) and that's with a pretty-close-to-worst-case scenario: concussions forced him from catcher 3 years before we expected and cost him basically two years without being a big enough injury the Twins got insurance money. P.S. For fun, I also looked at 2006 to 2010. On a $33.4 million contract, Joe Mauer produced $164.51 million of WAR. That's pretty insane. P.P.S. If Mauer puts up 2.0 WAR season, it's be worth $20 million+. Now he's not going to get that because the upside isn't there and the downside isn't but $8 million is really low. I'd see $10-$12 million and think the Twins could be getting a nice bargain. P.P.P.S. Are you suggesting that Joe Mauer is on steroids? That seems pretty unlikely

I don't think Kelly is saying that people go just to see Mauer - she's saying that Mauer has value beyond what is on the field. For one thing, he certainly sells memorabilia that benefit the bottom line. I'd also argue that while you may not be going to see games to see Mauer, plenty of Minnesotans still see him as a big draw. No one goes to a game for one position player (well, maybe Bonds back in the day?) but Mauer is a big part of the Twins experience. I can't tell you the number of times I've been queueing for a day game (hooray "working" downtown in the summer!) and heard people in line talking about whether or not Joe will get the day off. He's no longer the face of the franchise but he's top-5 player on a given day for most Twins fans. For me still #1 but I'm an extreme Mauer-lover. I think some sense of decorum plays into this. The Twins could likely go out there and find someone cheaper with more upside, especially since they have Sano and Morrison for next year at 1B if need be. But there's a sense of doing the right thing - if Mauer can play at an MLB level and isn't asking for $18 million/year, it seems like you're picking a fight for no reason. It also can't hurt to have demonstrated that kind of loyalty, especially when you think about the Twins FO need to sign guys like Berrios, Buxton, Kepler etc. in the coming years. Showing you take care of your guys has to have some impact. I was thinking about that when Joe was getting his standing O for #2000 - you have to think that Kepler, Buxton and co. were thinking about whether that could be them someday. These guys play for the money but they were all little kids too, thinking about being the hero in the big game. All of this will be a moo point when Mauer hits .400 for the year of course.

Because those are the only two options

Um, no one said it did? I a!so never made the argument he was in the Wizard of Oz.

Twins have no obvious internal candidate to replace Mauer. They'd need two of the following three things to happen for Mauer to not make sense in 2019: 1.) Miguel Sano shows he absolutely cannot play 3B but is a big enough bat to demand full-time DH. 2.) Brent Rooker is ready for the bigs but cannot play corner OF. 3.) Logan Morrison hits 40 homers and needs to play everyday. #1 seems like a huge stretch - the Twins don't have an obvious 3B candidate to replace Sano unless you want to play Escobar every day and the Twins have every reason to keep Sano at 3B and maximize his value as long as he's not putrid. #2 seems unlikely since Rooker should at least be a capable 4th OF and also has a long way to go to be a sure-fire MLB player. I can see him needing at bats in the second half of 2019 easily. Being a for-sure guy in spring training? Unlikely. #3 seems most likely in spite of Morrison's struggles. However, it seems more likely that Morrison hits okay and can be the LH half of a DH platoon next year. Perhaps platooning with Rooker/Sano? I can't see any reason the Twins don't go year to year with Mauer going forward. Or sign a two-year deal with an understanding that he may be in a platoon at 1B with Rooker/Sano in the second year of that deal. Three years from now may be a different story. Mauer'd be 39 and the Twins would have Diaz etc. on their way up (or potentially Dozier at 1B if they resign him). But sign him! Two years, $15-$18 million. He's not going to want to break the bank and it's time for Twins fans to deal with an underpaid Mauer.

Let's take it a bit further and look at the huge Mauer contract: 2017: Mauer has 2.3 WAR. WAR is worth $10.5 mill. Mauer is worth $24.15 mill 2016: Mauer has 0.9 WAR. WAR is worth $10.2 mill. Mauer is worth $9.18 mill 2015: Mauer has 0.2 WAR. WAR is worth $9.6 mill. Mauer is worth $1.92 mill 2014: Mauer has 1.6 WAR. WAR is worth $7.7 mill. Mauer is worth $12.32 mill 2013: Mauer has 5.2 WAR. WAR is worth $7.2 mill. Mauer is worth $37.44 mill 2012: Mauer has 4.5 WAR. WAR is worth $6.2 mill. Mauer is worth $27.9 mill 2011: Mauer has 1.2 WAR. WAR is worth $7.4 mill. Mauer is worth $8.88 mill. Thus far Mauer has been worth $121.79 million in all but the final year of a $184 million contract. He needs a pretty big throwback season to make the whole contract worth it. If WAR is worth $10.5 million this year he'd need a 6.0 WAR season. So far he has 0.6 WAR and is on pace for 8.8 WAR. Let's rewrite this narrative and make that contract worth it!