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ThejacKmp

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Everything posted by ThejacKmp

  1. ThejacKmp
    This is crazy talk, an absurd hot take. Lance Lynn has no injury and has a long track record of success. He's been bad but it would be really shocking if he just all of a sudden forgot how to pitch at age 31. He's also not signed for next year so if you want to build his trade value, you have to start him. If nothing else, it's be insane to release him since he'd be a nice arm for the bullpen as he's always had a reasonably high strikeout rate. You'd also be bringing Gonsalves up and starting his MLB Clock in order to get maybe 1-2 starts before May and Santana are back. This would be the definition of a move with no point.
  2. ThejacKmp
    "Recent performance is a pretty good predictor of short term success." That's the part I think people assume because it makes sense in your head but I'm not sure it's truth in reality. Ryan LaMarre was hot to start the season but it was because every ball he hit found grass. Just because he hit a bunch of singles to start the year doesn't mean that he's a good bet to keep doing so - he's a subpar player who is likely to revert to the mean. I'd want the guy who has been cold but has more talent. I can see it if there's some adjustment that a guy needs to make or he's in poor shape or something. But all things equal, it seems to me that the better player should play, hot streaks be darned.
  3. ThejacKmp
    I think my "expectations" are eminently more likely to pan out than the predictions of the doom-and-gloom set. I also think it's crazy how many people think that the only source of salvation comes from the minors. Very few minor leaguers come up and have immediate sustained success. Even if they do, the league adjusts to them. I thought the Twins had a good team on paper this spring. I think that's still true, I just think they're banged up or have had some guys who haven't played well. I think Logan Morrison and Dozier are going to be above average bats. I think Sano and Buxton may not be superstars but won't be as bad as they've been. I think the rotation is in fantastic shape, Lance Lynn or no Lance Lynn. I think we get too focused on recent events and ignore that bigger picture - the division doesn't have anyone remarkable and the Twins have a team where a lot has gone inexplicably wrong and doesn't seem likely to continue going wrong. It's that old adage about two guys running to first with the same time and the coach picks the one who has poor form because that one can be fixed and then he'll be better.
  4. ThejacKmp
    The issue is the oft-cited concept that Ryan Lamarre's past should not matter much because he has a "hot bat" and thus deserves a call-up more than Jake Cave - a guy with a better track record and who is four years younger. When you drill down the analytics show that the BABIP is massive and unlikely to continue but that doesn't matter -- he has a hot bat. It's weird because it feels like a phrase Gardenhire would say but it's relatively meaningless. Recent performance is less predictive of overall success than long-term historical performance. I don't think it's a big deal in day-to-day lineup construction but overall, it seems like a myth.
  5. ThejacKmp
    Yeah, I guess I'm talking more in general than specific people. The general tone in the TR era felt like "Why do we go with Old Baseball Truths and hunches" and the general tone now feels like "These guys are too smart for their own good." My hypothesis is that we like to complain no matter what.
  6. ThejacKmp
    1.) Most team's third catcher is Bobby Wilson. That's just the nature of catching. 2.) What RH OF should they have found? Go look at the free agents signed - none of them are any good. The best of the bunch was Carlos Gomez and he's not been great. Also, they never even had a shot at Gomez because they were offering a 4th OF position while Tampa was offering him a starting job. It's easy to complain the Twins should upgrade Grossman but hard to find the actual upgrade (before the season, the deadline is definitely easier to do that). 3 and 4.) Escobar was the backup plan for Sano and middle infield. Then Polanco got suspended. Hard to see where they should have been looking - you can't just find capable middle infield players when someone gets suspended 2 weeks before the season. Adrianza has not been great but he's been acceptable. Once Sano comes back, Escobar will play a decent amount of SS and the Twins will be okay. Adrianza has been overmatched as an everyday SS but that's the nature of injuries.
  7. ThejacKmp
    Grossman OPS the last 20 games = .848. He's been producing. LaMarre career AAA OPS = .718. He is who we thought he is, recent BABIP-driven hot streak not withstanding.
  8. ThejacKmp
    Outside of Gordon, this is pretty extreme. Wade makes no sense for the Twins roster. He hits lefty and is not an ideal 4th OF for platoon purposes. He's also never sniffed AAA so lets not rush him to the majors where he's a clunky fit. Grossman isn't amazing but his OPS the last 20 games is .848. Hard to see Wade doing better . . . Lynn has a track record of being a solid starting pitcher. The Twins should give him until Santana returns (or May forces it) to get things right. He's still striking guys out, he's just wild. That can change. Releasing him now is tough - he doesn't need many starts to rebuild some value. Plus, Gonsalves has only started 8 games in AAA. He can use a few more. I can get into Gordon for Petit but I hope that's a stop gap. Polanco/Sano will be back eventually and then Gordon will be in Adrianza's role. I'd rather he's down in AAA playing every day. The jump from AA to the majors is not an easy one. Funny how TD used to rail against TR FO for not following analytics. Now we're back to the "hot bat" theory and want the Flavine FO to react to recent results rather than long-term data.
  9. ThejacKmp
    I think you are. The Twins were smart to give him 10 days to get fully recovered. I imagine he'll be itching to get back before that is half up.
  10. ThejacKmp
    Even with his insane start, LaMarre only put up a .718 OPS in the majors. He's hot now but his OPS in 256 AAA games is .734. Jake Cave has a AAA OPS of .809 in 203 AAA games. And he's four years younger than LaMarre. And he's hit the ball well so far. I'm glad to see that the FO doesn't ride the hot hand theory or let a week of high BABIP influence the decision. Cave has a better track record and is a better prospect. He deserves to be called up ahead of LaMarre.
  11. ThejacKmp
    See I feel positive. Dozier is bound to get hot. He's just up and down,Sano will be back and since he's taking at-bats from Grossman/Cave, he doesn't need to be that good.Buxton will get it going. Maybe not MVP style but he's just shaking off the rust of a long absence.Kepler and Rosario look really good.Castro went down but Garver is a better bat anyways. It'll be great when the Twins get healthy and he's batting 8thYour angst on Morrison is crazy - he had a bad start but he's consistently been an above average hitter and he's raking it now. A very nice piece.The rotation outside of Lance Lynn has been great. Odorizzi is underrated, Berrios/Romero show flashes of dominance, Gibby is backing up last season with a few duds.Lance Lynn has 2-4 more starts to figure it out and then May/Santana will replace him. Lynn is better than this but there's an expiration date so either way the Twins should be okay.The pen has stabilized. There isn't anyone shutdown outside of Reed but it's a deep group that should get better with May/Lynn entering at some point.The Twins have had just about everything go wrong that could and they're still only 2.5 back of an Indians club that just doesn't look as good as people thought. That's great, things are bound to get better for the Twinkies as they get more games against the division.
  12. ThejacKmp
    I'm always sad that the Brewers went to the NL and not the Twins. When I think about those mid 00s teams that were starting Jason Tyner at DH, I think "We could have been an NL team, we could have been an NL team." Because that's what you are when Jason Tyner DHs.
  13. ThejacKmp
    I hate when we face Lefties. Especially without Sano and Polanco. DH Grossman and give Morrison the night off?
  14. ThejacKmp
    Would he accept it? He's going to want to start to build value for his next contract. Going to the pen would hurt him financially. Then again, pitching like he is would too so maybe he'd go for it?
  15. ThejacKmp
    Do you have any evidence of bad offseason habits or are you just being Mr. Negative again? I have literally never heard this line and I thought we'd heard every way to rip joe. Mauer is #7 in the AL in OBP. He would lead off for many teams he played with. It's not 1980 anymore, teams don't need to have a base stealing threat bat first.
  16. ThejacKmp
    I can't see why they'd pull him for a promotion. Trade or injury but I think we'd have heard rumblings of a trade by now.
  17. ThejacKmp
    Mike Pelfrey's first 11 starts that year: 8-3 with a 2.28 ERA and a .654 opponent OPS. It didn't start out a bad decision. People forget it because Duffey was the story at the end of that year but Pelfrey carried the Twins through the first half of the season. And then the wheels came off.
  18. ThejacKmp
    Perhaps it's a matter of argument. If you're arguing "release Hughes so we can get Buesnitz or Vargas up" it's maybe not as convincing "We need to release Hughes to get Santana into the mix."
  19. ThejacKmp
    Can you move him to the minors? He can't have any more options. He'd have to pretend to be injured and make rehab starts.
  20. ThejacKmp
    But subtract the WAR you lose from Castro/Garver for next year (and to be fair, add what you're giving up in Bobby Wilson!). And then the WAR you could get from Gonsalves and Gordon (and whoever else) in the future.* It's not just adding a 3.6 WAR catcher, it's what you give up. It's easy to say "Go get the best available player" but harder to take the cost into consideration. * We've been talking Gonsalves and Gordon but that could very easily not be enough. The Red Sox, Brewers and several other teams have been listed as Realmuto targets. The Marlins have no incentive to make a trade now when the market may develop further by the deadline - unless you make an offer they can't refuse.
  21. ThejacKmp
    I've made the second point all over this board so not disagreement there - the twins should look for a better backup and trust Garver. I vote Lucroy if the price is low. But no way your specific point remains valid. Go find the five Castros. Actually, find three. You find three third catchers (minors or MLB) who aren't hotshot prospects, hit at Castro's level (to make it easier, let's say 10% better that Castro MLB in AAA and 20% better in AA), and are considered at least average defensively. Find those and your point has teeth. But that's not going to happen. Guys who can hit at Castro's level are at least backup catchers. Your park argument doesn't make much sense: Houston's stadium is #21 in park factor while Target Field is #24. So Castro hitting better at those parks than the others has nothing to do with some inflating park factor. In fact it's impressive he hit better at home since it's harder. Even if the park was a factor, the new guy would also get to hit at Target Field so it wouldn't change anything. Most players hit better at home than on the road so not sure what the bigger point you're making. There's no rational reason to throw out Castro's home numbers, which are based on a large sample of success. The Twins won't be finding a catcher they only use on the road so throwing out Jason Castro's home numbers is bizarre at best. His hitting is his overallUsing math doesn't mean that the logic behind it makes sense. Unless I'm missing something.
  22. ThejacKmp
    Pretty lame how many didn't answer the question by saying "Something will happen next two weeks to make the decision for you." Even if that's true, answer the dang question. What do you do if they're all healthy? I only heard two good ideas: 1.) Lynn to the pen. He knows he has two weeks, if not he's pen bound. 2.) Six man rotation. This maybe makes you cut Hughes but that's something you might just have to do. But overall, answer the question.
  23. ThejacKmp
    Weird how we're not hearing anything right?
  24. ThejacKmp
    Agreed on #1. For #2, one reason is that Realmuto is very unhappy to be the last guy left on the Marlins. He's asked to be traded several times. He's also unlikey to be this good when the Marlins are good in 3-5 years. He'll be a catcher in his 30s. P.S. "Once in a generation" seems hyperbolic. He's a good catcher, he's not Buster Posey. Or Joe Mauer.
  25. ThejacKmp
    He's talking about the Marlins.
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