ThejacKmp

Not sure I believe this. The Twins will carry 13 position players most likely. The starter at every position except DH is relatively clear (SS is perhaps a bit more up in the air but hard to see Polanco not at least starting the year there, god help us all). So that leaves four bench spots and DH. A backup C will be one of the bench spots (#1). Hard to see Escobar not making the team since he can back up short while Polanco covers 2B and 3B (#2). Grossman also seems like a lock as a 4th OF and bench #3 (maybe one of the other AAAA OF options will play his way onto the team but I can't see any of them that has a clear path - they seem more like injury insurance). One of Vargas/Park will likely start at DH. So it's all about that 4th bench spot. With the 12 above, the Twins are a bit light on middle infielders (just Escobar) and a defensive outfielder - though there isn't a real defensive liability among the starters so maybe that gets de-emphasized? It'll be interesting to see if Escobar gets time in the OF this spring - he played 35 games there in 2015, poorly if I remember. That would be a sign that the Twins may be willing to think more IF options, be that middle or at first. It'll likely come down to whether the Twins want to carry a big bat or another infield/outfield backup. So really, the loser of Park vs. Vargas will likely be up against Santana or Adrianza for the last spot. I think Santana has the edge due to positional versatility (he provides an extra option in middle infield and all three OFs which has it's use) but if Vargas and Park are both hot, the Twins could very easily justify keeping both. Not sure it's a pick two.

All are RH and garver has no options issues. Agreed on garver in AAA, want to see him catch a lot.

JRM and gimenez both hit rh as well. That's no advantage for anyone. JRM should not be defined by last year. He has hit before and I'd say he's a better hitter than gimenez.

Plus Byung Ho Park should be able to match last year's line for at least the next five years . . .

And I don't think i said he sucks. He's a good player, just not a guy you pay $82 mill through age 35 for. The things he does well are not likely to age well. That said, I get nervous every time someone says that a guy has intangibles that can't be measures. It's like when someone says guy is a eat defensive catcher - that just means he can't hit.

Strongly disagree. Fowler is a very good player but he's not a great player and that contract was huge - 5 years $82 million. He'll be 31 to start the season and last year represents a career year (840 OPS that's likely to sink back closer to 800 - his career is 778 and that's buoyed by six years in Colorado). Even if Fowler keeps it up the first two years of the contract, by the end he'll be 45 and will have moved off CF into a corner where those numbers are way less palatable as his skill set inevitably erodes. I was actually more surprised that the usually sound Cardinals made the deal - it's the kind of deal they've by and large avoided in the past. The Cubs have good internal options too. Heyward can move over to CF (where his bat struggles are less magnified) while Zobrist and Schwarber man the corner OF spots. For 4th OF (and days the Cubs move Schwarber to C or Zobrist to DH) the Cubs have a nice platoon of John Jay and Almora – a cagy vet and a young guy with upside. That’s a really nice OF and one that actually gets crowded by Fowler being around. Good teams know how to let non-core guys go while keeping momentum and message going (e.g. Spurs). Fowler got more expensive than he was worth and he never really lined up with the position player peak of the Cubs. I imagine the Cubs will have a similar decision next year if Arrieta seems very good and not great this year. They’ve got a window of 8-10 years and gotta know when to hold, know when to fold em.

Wow, that's a crazy reach. (But first, yeah no way the Cubs do this. If they move Baez it will be for young pitching, not for a late 20s hitter due an extension in two years. Why trade MLB-ready upside for a proven veteran when your team is stacked?) And we're back to the crazy reach. Javy Baez is a fun guy with some Q factor from the playoffs but you clearly haven't looked at his stats. He didn't even put up a 100 OPS+ in 2016 and he struck out in 24% of his plate appearances while walking 3.3% of the time. (His number are actually incredibly close to Eddie Rosario's - not the best comp right now, even with the positional help of 2B vs LF.) Baez may turn into a great player someday but he's nowhere near Dozier's level now. Over the past three years Dozier has a 118 OPS+ with much better pop and a K-rate of 19.7% and walk rate of 10%. He's hit over 20 HR three years running with 40+ last year obviously. Dozier even stole more bases at a better clip than Baez (side note: Dozier had a really nice 90% steal rate last year on 20 attempts - not something you hear much about). Brian Dozier will likely regress a bit but he's a good bet to put up some nice numbers in a Twins lineup that provides some protection but looks to be trailing in a good number of games. Javy Baez's defense may make him a better player fairly soon but from a numbers POV, this 75% assertion is pure folly. I'd say Baez has a less than 10% chance to have better numbers that Dozier this year. Even with a big jump by Baez and a regression by Dozier, Baez would likely just pull even. Baez is a young guy with a lot of talent but a lot of things to work out. Dozier is a guy in his prime who may have just had his career year but is a solid MLB veteran.

I like any thread that devolves into a discussion of the Thorpedo.

This. Stewart has the stuff that should result in a higher ceiling - it's truly baffling and worrying it hasn't yet. Gonsalves has less tools but uses them better. It's the old adage of the coach who watches two guys run to first in the same amount of time - one with terrible form and the other with perfect form. When told he can have one he takes the guy with terrible form. That guy can be coached to be better, the other guy has already peaked.

Meh, I don't even really blame TR and Antony that much. Yeah they could have thrown him at short sometimes but I think they really never saw Polanco as a shortstop. Circumstance last year forced their hand as Nunez (not much of a SS either) was dealt and Escobar was pretty awful while Polanco's hitting forced him up to the MLB level. It feels like the same thing is happening this year - no one really wants to play Polanco at SS but Dozier not being dealt and the lack of other options on a rebuilding team makes it not the worst idea. I see no indications in Polanco's demeanor that struggling in the field is going to set back his offensive development. I guess TR and Antony could have worked him at SS but I see no way he's in the Twins SS plans next year so I can let it go. You can't predict everything and if Dozier had been dealt, I'd be wanting Polanco to have concentrated on 2B. The Twins' success this season isn't going to hinge on Polanco's play at SS. It isn't going to help but in a year where .500 would be incredible, getting him MLB at-bats is almost certainly the reason the Twins are playing a 2B at SS.

I think the issue is when guys get banged up a bit and day to day (ahem, Buxton) and then you're down to 3 outfielders, one atrocious. You want to at least have an option in the OF for those types of situations. That's why outside of Escobar showing decent chops in left, I think it's hard for Ehire Adrianza to make this team. Danny Santana could very well sneak in because he can play lots of positions poorly.

1.) I imagine Mauer will still play 80%+ of games. 75% of starting pitchers are right handed and Mauer will pull some starts against lefties, I doubt it's a straight platoon. 2.) I'd be surprised if Garver made the team. I don't think it's his job to win, I think it's JRM and Gimenez's to lose. Again, in a straight platoon (which Castro's splits make likely), he plays 25% of the time. I just think the FO is going to want Garver catching more often at least the first few months so JRM or Gimenez will be given the opportunity to start the year (my hope is JRM, at least there's some upside there). 3.) Ehire Adrianza is out of options so the Twins risk losing him if they don't keep him. That said, I still think Danny Santana is the 25th man again. The Twins will have a need for 5th option in the OF and I don't see it elsewhere on the roster. It'll be interesting to see if Escobar gets some time in OF this spring (or maybe even Mauer?) 4.) I too would like to see Buxton hit this spring before anointing him leadoff. If he struggles at all, get him at the bottom of the lineup so there's less pressure. That said, if he hits, reward the young man. He could be one of the funnest national stories if he continues his September renaissance. 5.) Agreed with Jeremy on Hughes making the team. I'm not sure how long of a leash he'll be given but unless he craps the bed in training camp, I think they'll give him a shot. He's also a long-shot candidate to be moved at the deadline if he has any success.

I mean, Vielma can't hit isn't a legend - he's not particularly adept at that yet and it keeps him a fringe prospect. The nonexistent power tool means that MLB pitchers are going to make him hit so that OBP is not as likely to translate as he ascends to AAA and MLB. He's got to continue to hit, one reason I think he should be in AAA this year. He'll face more guys with an MLB mindset so we can see if he can potentially hit .260 on the MLB level. I say this as a huge Vielma fan. I love having a top defensive shortstop, especially on a team that often eschews defense for power (Vielma makes Sano at 3B much more palatable for instance). But Vielma can't hit is a relatively valid concern. He's still only 22 and I'm hopeful he could be a big riser on this list if he can take a step at the plate but there are concerns.

I think the difference is that Mejia is 23 (and will be this entire year) and cost controlled for years to come (including multiple years at the rookie minimum) while guys like Milone, Nolasco, Pelfrey and Santiago were more expensive with less room to develop (and perhaps closer to #5 than #4). There's a big difference between a guy you can slot in at the back of the rotation and don't have to pay for several years and a guy earning $14 million a year (or a guy with a $5-$10 million arbitration award coming). Enormous may be too much but considerable seems fair. We're all so starved for top-of-the-rotation pitching that we're not appreciating the value of a solid, cost-controlled back of the rotation arm.

#4 starters regularly get $10 mill per year these days, he absolutely has enormous value. He's not sexy with upside but his floor is pretty high too. Even if he never fits the twins rotation (say he's lapped by our AA quartet) he'll have considerable value as a trade chip. Would love to see him get 5-6 mlb starts and make a name for himself.

Yeah, you wonder if it might help to tell him, "You're going to be in AA this entire year and AAA next year, no matter what. We want to work on these three things and we're not as concerned about the results."

I had such a big crush on Lewis Thorpe two years ago. Hopefully this is the part of the rom com where he storms back into my life, fulfilling all of my wildest dreams and dirtiest thoughts. A boy can dream.

Not as down on Blankenhorn as others. He has flaws but that's why he's in A ball. He'll be 20 most of the season - he's got 3-4 more years in the minors to get bigger and hone that glove and the power/patience tools. Solid #9 prospect.

Oh yeah. Mauer. National media talks about a Mauer resurgence year as he hits around .300 for most of the season before dropping down to .290 in September when the Twins feed playing time to younger guys and he's thinking about his golf game. This is in fact due to him being platooned more aggressively and some of his ill luck with BABIP regressing to the mean. Twins fans still don't appreciate how much he's meant to the organization and how much they will miss him when he's gone.

1) Perhaps bold but Twins finish second in the AL Central. The Indians are good but the White Sox are rebuilding and the Royals and Tiggers are not that strong. Not crazy to see a .500 Twins team that plays well in the division making it to second place. 2) Molitor survives to 2018. He embraces platooning and shows that being old doesn't make you old school. The Twins do well enough he makes it another year, though he's still on the hot seat (with Jake Mauer waiting in the on-deck circle?) 3) Danny Santana makes opening day but is DFA a few weeks into the season and TD celebrates (while a few speak wistfully of his role as a brightly burning star in a dismal 2014). 4.) Though people are down on Rosario, he plays well enough to be the everyday LF. Kepler, on the other hand, has some growing pains and makes a month-long trip down to Rochester to work on his hitting. We freak out but then remember he's young and his parents are ballerinas. 5.) Buxton is the Twins All-Star representative and leads the league in triples. 6.) Gibson rebounds and has a solid season, the Twins move him (not Santana) at the deadline to make room for some of they young starters coming up. 7.) Dozier ends up on the Dodgers at the deadline as Logan Forsythe's versatility covers for an injury at 3B/OF and 2B is open again.

Yeah I don't know if they're down on him either. I think they just looked at the 40 and said, "Park's contract and the depth of the 1B market makes him the guy we are least likely to lose. We'd like to keep all of our chips on the table." There should be space on the 40 as bullpen and backup decisions are made in six weeks - easy to move Park back on. Still likely Vargas's job to lose. The switch hitting is nice.

There are other threads on this but I feel like we didn't give enough kudos to the new regime for the Park waivers process. I know people are deservedly down on Danny San and Tonkin but those guys have some value (Tonkin has upside and could make the pen while Danny Santana's versatility could be useful if the Twins get banged up coming out of spring training and need a utility guy for OF and IF) and the Twins bought time on both guys. The FO read the waiver process perfectly and were able to get Belisle while losing nothing. I'm not sure that TR would have had the imagination and guts to do it - definitely a good sign that no one on TD even saw it coming and it worked out so well.

Castro doesn't interest me as how the battle for the right hand side of what is hopefully a platoon ends up. I'm going to be very disappointed if Gimenez is on the opening day 25. I hope it's JRM's position to lose - he's got some upside and this is his shot. Gimenez is a nice backup-backup (with Garver as a Castro-backup so he gets PT) but it will be thoroughly dreadful if he isn't in AAA to start the season.

No. He's 19. He would need to shoot up through the high minors at a dizzying pace. He's still 3 years away. Luckily, 1B is not a position of need for the Twins.

I mean, every minor league player's floor is Matt Moses. Kirilloff has a way higher ceiling and the only reason his floor is lower is that he's five years younger. Palka is already potentially hitting his head on the ceiling. That power is nice but the AAA to MLB jump is tough for someone who K's as much as he does. I'm excited to see Palka in AAA but I'll be paying little to no attention to his power numbers - I want to see him get that K rate low enough that I can be excited about him as more than a September bench bat who goes on a power binge before pitchers adjust to him.