ThejacKmp

Can you explain where you think his point isn’t proven? The original source is a very well-respected source and the author did a nice update job by showing the few successes and many failures of the free agent relief pitching market since then. I don’t see where you say that the point wasn’t proven. Yes, he didn’t look at other strategies and investments but basically, signing high-priced free agent relievers is so risky with so little bang for the buck that almost anything would be better. The Twins have had demonstrable success investing money in the international prospect scene, they have a bevy of high upside arms coming up the pipeline and they’re not rebuilding an entire pen – with Jepsen, Perkins and likely May/Milone/other starter, they’re really just looking for 3 guys or so to fill out the back end of the pen. The author’s point that big contract free agent relievers are iffy at best is pretty solid; trusting the young arms and getting some lower priced free agents on 1 year deals seems like the best way to preserve roster flexibility in upcoming years while investing the money in a bunch of prospects (international or shifting through the waste of other organizations) will better help bolster the pen in 3-5 years.

I'm not saying give them a bullpen spot on the MLB squad. Give them a shot in spring training and if anyone looks good keep them, otherwise send them to Rochester to work on it. It will take time but the Twins literally have nothing to lose by trying this. Remember the Perkins. Logan Darnell's fastball sits at 91-93 range and Pat Dean sits in the low 90s. If you add a couple of MPH you have a decent middle reliever speed. Especially since they are lefties and outside of the closer, the Twins are bereft of good left handed relievers. Another factor is that relief pitchers don't throw four pitches. Settling down to 2, maybe 3 pitches can help improve any of these guys too.

I think the point of the article was that that is exactly the kind of investment that frequently pays no dividends. That money could be better spent signing extensions, in the international pool, on posting fees or bringing in a bunch of minor league free agents to see who sticks. Signing a reliever on a 3/15 deal is super iffy. You're likely flushing that money away.

Erroneous. Logan Darnell's K9 in the MLB was 8.2 and is consistently above 7.0 in the upper minors. In the minors, Taylor Rogers sits around 6.5 while Pat Dean is around 5.0. That doesn't take into consideration the jump in strikeouts one would imagine when they throw harder as they shift into a relief role. For comparison's sake, as a major league starter Glen Perkins averaged 4.3 K/9 and now averages 9.3. Mariano Rivera jumped from 6.8 to 8.3. For non-stars you see Anthony Swarzak jumping from 4.9 to 5.9 or Liam Hendriks jumping from 5.4 to 10.1. I'm not saying that these three guys will automatically jump like Rivera or a Perkins (Pelfrey actually dropped from 5.1 to 3.9) but their K rates are within the range that you could see them become swing-and-miss pitchers. These three serve no real purpose to the Twins as starters, it's time to see if they are more Hendriks or more Swarzak. If just one of them became a very good reliever that would be huge for the team. And again, we're not asking them to become elite relievers with elite K rates, we're saying that these guys could become good decent middle relief prospects. They would also be cheap, as the Twins would control them for years to come at a low cost. There's no reason not to try it - the Twins lost out on Liam Hendriks during a period they weren't competitive because they didn't push all failed starters into the pen. Lets not make that mistake again.

The Twins have such an overabundance of back of the rotation starters, it's time to start converting some of those guys to relievers. Logan Darnell, Taylor Rogers, Pat Dean - these guys are unlikely to get a chance starting in the bigs so it's time to see what they can do in shorter stints. If the Twins can't unload Ricky Nolasco, it's time to see what he can do from the pen too. I'd also like to see the Twins go after the veteran guys who don't profile as starters anymore - I hate to use the P word but the Pelfreys. These guys are unlikely to start in the majors again but a guy like Pelfrey could be a nice middle reliever out of the pen. The nice thing for the Twins is that they have two of the three 8th and 9th inning guys you need* in Jepsen and Perkins so they don't need dominance, just guys who can soak up those innings between starters and the elite pen arms. * Note that I'm being realistic - as much as we'd like to see Perkins used in the 6th with the bases loaded, it's not going to happen. So we have to think like Molly with 8th and 9th inning guys. Sadly.

I like this guy and wreitup but have to disagree that the low walks in independent ball tell us anything. Against lesser competition he may just be able to blow the ball by guys. He may be facing guys who can't really hit breaking balls. His pedigree and track record are bigger signifiers. Go Twins!

is Also, I was looking at the stats for that time because I don't really remember Plouffe's outfield experiments (there were a lot of things in Twins Territory back then which I blocked out). He made one error and had three assists in 30 games, the latter of which speaks of a pretty good arm or guys running on him like crazy. His range was below average but not too far away from Cuddy's when he first started - and that was being thrown to the wolves with no time in the minors or spring training at the position. Plouffe is a bit older but you would think with some time working on it in spring training he might be a passable outfielder. Same thing with Mauer really. It just seems like they should be working Plouffe (and Mauer) out there along with Sano. Keep your options open and what not.

Some things should not be said and no emoji will make them okay. Not even the poop emoji. Not even the poop emoji.

Oh I hope not. I cant see Plouffe being much better than Sano and Trevor is the better 3Bman. But it does provide another option.

People also forget that Plouffe has played 30 MLB games in right and left. That's not a ton but if Sano really can't hack it in the OF, he could make the transition out there. Cuddy moved from 3B to the OF so it's not impossible, especially with a nice arm. Not pretty but perhaps enough until Kepler is up and the Twins can trade him at the deadline or next offseason (if all goes well)?

Dislike. Don't even think this. I'm throwing salt over my shoulder while crossing my fingers and toes and knocking on wood. You should be ashamed of yourself.

Agreed on the outfielders but there are still two complicating factors. First of all, even if none of your six outfielders (and I’m not sure that there are six, this Sano to the OF business could be to help drive the market on Plouffe, but the point still remains with five) is proven, you can’t try them all out at the same time. You’re going to have to make some decisions at some point next year, even if you can delay it awhile by keeping Kepler and Buxton in the minors (I don’t know what Buxton has to prove in the minors, he has hit it and just needs everyday playing time to adjust to the majors). It would be better to use this surplus to fix other areas of need (top end starting pitching prospects, catcher) by making some smart choices about your outfielders before you see who bottoms out and they end up with no value. Prospects’ stock is high when they’re young and unproven and the Twins need to identify who they like long-term. Yeah there’s a risk of picking the wrong guy but you don’t win if you don’t play the game. Secondly, Rosario’s track record indicates that there is a strong chance that last season’s efforts may represent a high point. He had a high BABIP, struck out a lot and chased pitches out of the zone at alarming rates. He may be another Ben Revere – a player who does some things incredibly well but who has some warts that keep him from being a complete player. The Twins sold high on him and even if Meyer never works out, that was a great trade. I don’t think they should give Rosario away, I’m just saying that of their outfielders, Rosario is most likely to get a strong return while also being a good sell high guy. The deal needs to be right but it should be aggressively pursued. As for the Twins outfield, I agree that it’s got nobody proven but that doesn’t worry me. Both Hicks and Buxton are capable of playing good enough CF D to make them above replacement players, even if they don’t hit. With both of them (or Kepler a few months in if one really bottoms out or gets hurt) you’ll have two ++ outfielders. It would not be too disastrous to pair those two with the abomination that is Arcia’s OF defense or Sano’s lack of range/experience. And if Kepler, Arcia and Hicks all play well, that is a scary good D. Agree you don’t have to trade Rosario but some decisions need to be made at some point this season so if we find the right deal to sell high on Eddie, we should take it.

This makes some sense but if those players don't take the step, they lose the trade value. A good franchise needs to be able to sell high on guys (e.g trading Revere - for the opposite, how they handled Willingham) and make good calls on who will develop. I agree with the original author that Hicks has very little trade value now so you should keep him. Buxton and Kepler (and Sano of course) have so much potential it would be hard to get enough back to feel comfortable about trading a potential star. So hold them. To me it comes down to Plouffe and Rosario.* You have to shop both of those guys and see what the market holds for them, targeting young starting pitching prospects and a long-term solution at catcher. You can keep both but it gets awfully crowded. Shopping both means you'll get real offers since teams know that the Twins aren't in a "We have to get rid of Plouffe" position. * Arcia can be thrown into the Plouffe-Rosario group but I see no issue in the Twins holding him into the season as a 4th OF. You'd be selling low if you trade him now - unless some team really likes him, there's almost no downside to seeing if he can get back on track. If you don't have a place for him and he rebounds, he'll be more valuable at the deadline than he is now.

I love me some Rosario but he's the guy to trade. He reminds me of Ben Revere in that they do a few things really well but there are some gaping holes in their game which limit their future. (Caveat: Rosario is ridiculously young and could very well improve, though changing some of those things at the ML level would be tough). If the Twins could get an elite arm or a long-term solution at catcher, I'm down to make Rosario part of the package.

I think we often assume that a manager is a CEO when in fact, they're really just the sales manager. Gardy wasn't good with stats but that's at least in part because the organization itself was not into stats. I would definitely interview Gardy because he has some obvious strengths when it comes to daily management of a team and then would feel out if he'd fit within the framework I've constructed. People can change, particularly if it involves an entirely new system. How many players have a resurgence when they get a new environment? Why couldn't the same be true for managers?

Agreed. I would not be devastated if they did because Wieters could be fun but I can't say I think it would be a great move. The issue with the other contenders is that Suzuki doesn't have much of a split advantage that lends itself to a platoon - almost shockingly so. He's the same hitter from either side of the plate. I guess that means you can platoon him with anyone but it doesn't really give you a huge advantage. Unless the Twins can get someone like Lucroy for a reasonable package, I'm a tepid fan of bringing in Pierzynski or Avila on a 2 year deal (hopefully they're the backup year 2) and hoping that either (1) you can pry loose some catcher in the next 18 months or (2) Garver/Turner/Navaretto take a jump this year and look ready to take over. I don't have a ton of faith in those guys though so that's hard to bet on. It really feels like catcher is about to become the new version of the Twins middle infield woes of the last decade. The free agent market looks shaky at best (as many pointed out Wieters has some warts and is by far the best option) and internal candidates are not too promising.

The cost of the Cole Hamels deal was pretty crazy. I would not have wanted the Twins to make that deal. This is what the Phillies got: ·SP Matt Harrison ($28.4 million guaranteed left on his contract) ·C Jorge Alfaro (Top-3 prospect within the Rangers organization, consensus top-50 prospect overall) ·SP Jake Thompson (Top-5 prospect within the Rangers, top-100 prospect overall in most publications) ·OF Nick Williams (71st best prospect in baseball, according to Baseball Prospectus) ·SP Alec Asher ·SP Jerad Eickhoff We can quibble about it but if you translate it to Twins terms: - Nolasco (ineffective pitcher signed to long term deal) - Kepler (top 3 prospect, should be somewhere around top 50 but not a catcher so perhaps I'm thinking too much of Kepler) - Gonsalves (and this might be selling short since I'm not sure Gonsalves will be a top 100 prospect this year or even a Top 5 Twins prospect) - Rosario (this is hard because Williams is a minor leaguer, Rosario had some issues and wasn't a top 100 prospect but I think the fact he's been to the majors makes up for some of the difference in pedigree) - Taylor Rogers and Tyler Duffey (This is hard because Duffey was so good after being called up but at midseason pre-Twins call up, this is probably apt since Asher and Eickhoff are both better prospects than Rogers but not as good as Duffey. Plus I sold high on Gonsalves so hopefully I have some wiggle room adding in Duffey?) So an equivalent (perhaps not perfect but a good ballpark estimate since like most Twins fans I likely think more of Twins prospects than real life does) is Nolasco (yay!), Kepler, Gonsalves, Rosario, Rogers and Duffey for Hamels and Jake Diekman, a mediocre reliever. That's way too much, even for a nice four year deal on an ace. I'd rather the Twins sign the crazy Grienke contract than give up that level of material for an ace. And I hate those crazy contracts because the opportunity cost down the road is less ability to signing the young guys. The best bet for a Twins ace is from within. Gonsalves, Thorpe, Jorge, Berrios all have potential to be an ace. If not, the Twins might just have to hit and occasionally make the rental deal for an ace like Price or Cueto. Those prices are high for a rental but carry less risk so that might have to be Plan B.

I don't see too much to gain by putting Buxton in the minors so assuming he is up, I love a Hicks/Arcia platoon. Hicks will still get at bats against righties when he comes in as a defensive replacement so if he shows improvement there, you can wean him into an everyday role.

Disagreements: 1) Sano can be the team MVP, I am down with that. The reasoning not so much. If you had said that Sano’s presence in the lineup was unprecedented except for Harmon I would take that on the narrow focus that the Twins haven’t had that 40HR threat since Harmon. But saying since Kirby? Kirby wasn’t a power hitter so you’re not going on power. That means you are severely underselling Mauer and Morneau’s performance in the 2000s. Both of them were fearsome presences in the middle of the lineup (and both have years with better OPS than anything Kirby put up and more than anything Sano has done in a half year). 2) Torii Hunter??? I mean, unless he taught Aaron Hicks how to hit it’s an insane tribute to his “leadership”. Like he should be manager. Rosario has been significantly better at the plate (more XBHs in 100 less at bats, better OPS) and is a markedly better defender (not just because people run on him and he kills them dead but because he has better range, arm etc.) 3) I love Joey more than anyone but Eduardo Escobar belongs on this list. He’s played 122 games and has hit better than Joe while playing a premium defensive position. He also plays a position where the Twins would have no one else, whereas Joey playing first base keeps other strong candidates from playing. Should be: Sano Dozier Rosario Gibson (I guess, I can't get excited about too many pitchers but if you want Gibby, that's fine by me) Escober

Unfair to say that about Gardy since his late 2000s teams were insanely resilient. The teams of the past 4 years just weren't very good. No amount of resiliency overcomes PJ Walters being your #3 starter in August.

But at the end he had Kepler, ABW, Polanco - it's not like he had no elite prospects. I think the main issue I have with this is not what you're saying (Dougie seems like a fine manager and the Twins should worry about losing him if Molitor blocks his way) but the proof you use. I'm not so sure that win loss record means anything for ML managers, let alone minor league managers with the constant roster changes and the focus on development over winning (e.g. Tim Hudson wan't allowed to throw his ML-ready splitter in the minors because they wanted him to work on his change up - it's not about winning really). A better argument for Dougie would center around players he had got better under him, that elite players moved up quickly and struggling prospects improved their trade and their stock. Or that he is maximizing bullpen performance with smart moves and has clear strategies for who to play. Wins and losses mean nothing. We also haven't seen Dougie manage the media, a big part of the ML job. I also am not sure that the best solution is moving Dougie to the majors on the staff. If you want to keep other teams from noticing him, keep him in the minors. I can't remember another team raiding another's minor league system for a manager (I'm sure it happens but very rarely) but they go after ML coaches all the time. Obviously you run the risk of Doug leaving the organization if he feels slighted but barring that, he seems more useful in the minors. The Twins need to let Dougie know he is next in line and have a clear concept of what Molitor's long term outlook is.

Naw, a sweep would be nice. Two out of three is needed. If they can then go 5-2 on that road trip (tall order of course but we are at a time of the year where greatness is needed) then they should come into that KC series in very good shape. You can't control other teams but the Astros don't seem like a team that is going to go streaking, especially given six road games and their dismal road performance.

Yeah, the NBA has this issue too. The minute both LCS's are over, they should take a day and start the World Series. You have to trust that your product is good enough that people will tune in no matter the day of the week.

I disagree here. I love that there is less of an incentive to move players at the deadline. It's always made me a bit uncomfortable that teams can add significant pieces at the deadline. Hopefully the wild card makes it so teams just add some small pieces and there are less huge transformations.

Agreed, I love that teams have to fight so hard for the division because it's worth it. The Wild Card has become a true Wild Card - totally random.