ThejacKmp

I assume that O'Rourke's place will be taken when Glen Perkins comes back - hopefully/likely before we make any starting rotation changes. So you're talking about Fien/Tonkin etc.

I'd like us to also consider the concept of moving Phil Hughes to the pen. I know he's got a big contract but the bullpen could more readily use a righty than a lefty and Hughes has had success pitching out of the pen earlier in his career. He hasn't pitched particularly well this year (though his FIP is low, SSS acknowledged) and is likely the starter who is most useful out of the pen. Just a thought.

Nunez did that on Tuesday too. The Twins have the depth to bench guys who do that, Molly needs to get on that.

Yeah. Tonkin got squeezed on that Braun at bat where he eventually walked him too. And to not be one-sided or biased, Sano's 4th ball on a 3-0 count was one of the most criminal calls I've ever seen. It wasn't even borderline, it was just a strike.* My wife who thinks baseball is as interesting as golf (hint: not interesting) was watching for once and she laughed out loud when it was called a ball. Insane in the membrane. * Loving the new/old Arcia but he immediately swung at the first pitch after a reliever came in and walked the bases loaded with an ump who clearly had a schizophrenic strike zone in calling a 4 pitch walk. C'mon man, take that first pitch!

Agreed. There are no stats to back it up and its entirely subjective but I have seen insane strike zones for both the Twins and their opponents in a bunch of games. Hopefully the umps will settle down a bit? :-)

I was very happy to see Molitor PH for Murphy yesterday and then stick Suzuki back there. Only two of Park/Sano/Rosario/Arcia are going to get to play today (my votes are Arcia vs. a righty and Sano because he's Sano) but at least we will have two very fun bats on the bench in Park and Rosario that might actually be used in a meaningful situation for a poor hitter. And that's not even mentioning hitting for pitchers!*

I'm not sure that any of them would be any better. Park has never played RF and is much older. Plouffe could do it but then you'd have worse defense at 3B and no real improvement in the OF. Mauer at 1B might be a better option but again, he's 32 and doesn't seem like he'd be any better. This is likely the best formation for the Twins until Kepler forces his way up and they have to choose who goes - likely Plouffe.

I was surprised looking at the stats on that - the Royals BA was third best in the AL but their OPS was just about exactly average. That media narrative that they got on base all the time just wasn't true. Interesting. Yeah, clearly the Twins aren't a World Series team or a favorite in their division. But they have the pieces to have a good back end of the pen and the young developing arms to weather injury/ineffectiveness. It's not crazy to say that the Twins pen could take a solid jump to be an asset. Defense will hurt the Twins though, at least until they can get Kepler into the OF and move Sano to 3B/DH/1B. At that point though, they'll have three CFs in the OF and a relatively average to slightly above average infield. Catcher remains an issue of course.

Very much agreed. That's where keeping Plouffe actually makes some sense. The Twins can really weather almost any injury. Even (knocks on wood, throws salt over shoulder, chases down a leprechaun) Sano wouldn't create a hole as the upgrade to Kepler's defense would mitigate some of that loss. It's going to be good. Also, I can't remember a Twins team where you had so much hope about starters 6-8. Yeah #5 sucks but the arms coming up are great. Not too worried about injuries in the rotation. I know spring training doesn't mean much, but I'm most excited for Danny Santana this year. He seems perfect for that utility role with his speed, extra base pop and positional variety. He's going to get a ton of time this year and could be ready for a huge bounceback year.

Yeah, and Rosario was an OF at the beginning of his career who was moved to 2B due to resource allotment (bad IF prospects, tons of good OF prospects). So moving back to OF isn't him learning a new position but returning to his original one.

I'm not as sure that the narrative about the Twins pitching holding them back this year is so true. Look at the Royals last year. They won the World Series without dominant pitching - Edison Volquez was their ace with a FIP of 3.82 and Yordana Ventura was maddeningly inconsistent (same with Johnny Cueto in his end of the regular season campaign). If you look at the Royals last year and the Twins staff this year, there's not that much of a difference - lack of an ace, veteran arms with #2 upside and some unknown but promising young guys. Last year's Royals made it on a strong bullpen and a strong lineup. Their lineup was good (league average OBP, SLG and OPS) but it's not crazy to see the Twins having a pretty good lineup themselves (albeit with way less OBP/BA and a lot more power). And the back end of the pen looks strong to start the season and the farm system has plenty of impact arms to inject as the season goes along. The Twins rotation certainly isn't a strength and we're going to need some guys to step up and have good years but I don't think the rotation prevents the Twins from making the playoffs. The key is going to be getting out to a fast start and then betting on improvement in young guys like Buxton, Kepler, Berrios and Duffey to bolster the team in the second half. Let's be optimistic today!

That last part will be interesting. Plouffe is a nice insurance policy for a lot of the unknowns (man we have a lot of unknowns this year!) but if most of them work out (Buxton stays in the majors, Rosario doesn't slump, Arcia/Park is a capable DH, Kepler is ready) then the Twins are going to be forced to move him at some point, likely this year. Hopefully a market will open up and we'll get something back? A nice bullpen piece or a prospect? The rotation is harder and likely doesn't totally clear up until next year. Milone is likely not going to be worth $7 mill in arbitration next year and you have to think that Nolasco will be traded/bought out by the upcoming offseason. That opens two spots in the rotation but you're also likely to have May back in the rotation next year when the Twins (hopefully) don't have the bullpen needs they do this year. Hard to see Hughes/Gibson/Santana moving on so you'll still have two spots for Duffey/May/Berrios. That rotation going forward will be very interesting.

You're way to focused on opening day. Berrios is in the minors due to service time and it's exactly the right thing to do. 33 starts in his prime versus four right now. Easy call. Duffey looked bad this spring. If he pitches well this spring and nolasco predictably falls flat, the twins won't hesitate to call him up. Again, with Duffey struggling it makes sense to see if you can make nolasco tradable. May is not as ideal but as long as this isn't permanent and he's competing for a spot next year, may makes the most sense as a back of the pen arm. I can live with it for a year.

Roid rage from Ortiz is no surprise.

Agreed. The trade was terrible because of the level of prospect and the return received (not because of Capps performance but because you got a non-elite reliever) but Ramos has never turned into more than an oft-injured catcher.

1) no way Santana gets a shot before Kepler unless service time is involved. Santana is a utility guy whose best shot at an everyday role is in the middle infield. 2) it would be really insane if no one outside of catching and the middle infield gets hurt this year. After service time considerations are no longer an issue, he's the first guy up if park/Arcia/mauer/plouffe/Sano/Buxton/Rosario goes down. I would love if everyone stayed healthy but that's just not very realistic. He may not play every single day but molitor would find a way to get him out there 3 or 4 times a week (like he will hopefully do for Arcia). 3) even if that happens, if Kepler is tearing it up at aaa, you'll see someone moved in June or July (likely plouffe?) the twins love Kepler and he can absolutely force his way to the majors. Particularly if it's in conjunction with Sano moving to third if his rf defense is unplayable.

I really disagree that it's worth mentioning. It has happened one year, not multiple years. There's no thread to show that this is anything but a random occurrence. His GB% didn't change in any meaningful manner that suggests some new approach at the plate - this is the definition of a random occurrence. There were more guys on base with less than 2 outs when he hit his ground balls this year. That is not something worth mentioning when considering Plouffe's future. If it happens again this year, then we have something to talk about. For example: Pedro Alvarez is a 29 year old corner infielder (1B) who is not known for his speed. His 2015 batting and games played numbers are very similar to Plouffe's. He has a much higher GB to FB ratio (1.16 to 0.69) and a similar LD%. So you would expect Pedro to have hit into more DPs that Plouffe. Yet he grounded into 6 DPs (7% of his 91 opportunities) while Trevor Plouffe grounded into 28 DPs (22% of his 126 opportunities).* They both hit into 12 in 2014 and have generally maintained percentages around 10%-12%. Pedro Alvarez is as unlikely to hit into 6 DPs in 2016 as Plouffe is to repeat his 28. They will both almost certainly regress to the mean. It's really not worth worrying about Plouffe's supposed double play propensity or taking it into consideration when thinking about Plouffe's upcoming year. This "propensity" is based on one flukey year and has no statistical basis for recurrence. I wouldn't value Alvarez any more because he has a newfound ability to avoid double plays nor would I value Plouffe any less because he is suddenly prone to double plays. It has nothing to do with my projections for the two in the upcoming year. * I understand there are other ways to make a DP but I think we can call them all grounded for brevity's sake.

Yeah, I think the larger point would be that these lists are largely variable year to year - Plouffe would never get credit for "only" hitting into 12 DPs the year before so there's no reason to constantly mention his 28 DPs last year. There's not much rhyme or reason to the thing (exception: Tejada, Miguel). At some point you're assigning numbers for things that are largely beyond a guy's control. We all had caution last year about Danny Santana's BABIP and should do the same here. Plouffe is unlikely to see that spike in DP% again. Interestingly, in 1997 Craig Biggio had 619 at bats without grounding into a double play. And in 1935 Augie Glen batted 646 times without grounding into a double play. Those are kind of amazing feats.

Thank you for addressing the idiocy of focusing on double plays hit into. it's a variable stat based on opportunity - basically rbi and babip in the same stat. Time to stop obsessing about mauer and plouffe on this front.

I think the other issue is that there are two managers. A manager could set up a guy to face the heart of the other team's order only for the other team to start subbing in different guys. It seems like an interesting tool for some insight but not something to make a call on?

Agreed. I hope the Twins give him days off for Nunez/Santana/Polanco so he isn't gassed down the stretch like last year.

This doesn't seem like the dire situation everyone is saying. Ricky's agent answered a question and said he wanted to start. There's no indication that guys in the clubhouse are upset or that Ricky is sulking or anything. He's out competing for a job and this seems like one of those bridges one crosses when one gets to it.

I'd like to see him do well because I'd like to see him establish some trade value - injuries before the season or as an added bonus out of the pen. I just don't see how he can make the starting rotation. May and Berrios may be out of the running but Hughes, Santana, Duffey and Gibson are all locks or near locks and I can't see the Twins giving up having left-handed Tommy Milone in that 5th spot. Nolasco seems like a long-reliever/spot-starter, which is not a bad spot for him. So I want to see him do well because I think it would take an injury to get him into the rotation and if that happens, I'd like to see him pitch well for a few months before giving way to Berrios.

I dunno, maybe I'm just 2014 Dozier obsessed but I heard so much talk using raw numbers from half to half on FSN broadcasts and on the Twins Daily site. I don't think people have such a clear concept of the difference. In fact, I think you seized on a big part of that in showing that the Twins played 83 and 79 games in 1991 and 89 and 73 last year. That's a 12 game swing in a shot period of time - maybe people are used to a more equal halves thing which is no longer true?

Yeah I was referring to people (this site and in the media at large) saying that Dozier has a pattern of bad second halves, as they mistakenly use raw numbers and the difference in games played to characterize 2014 as a Dozier fade. My bad for not making that clearer.