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ThejacKmp

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Everything posted by ThejacKmp

  1. ThejacKmp
    Buddy Boshers was a reliever that whole time. Wilk was a starter. That's not an even comparison. Would you pick a random middle reliever from the mid 90s and choose him over Mariano Rivera while looking at his early career starting pitching stats (they're not good)? Nope. This is where stats can't explain everything. Wilk has been starting and the Twins see something in him they think will translate to relieving. It's that old adage of choosing between two guys with the same home to 1B time - one with perfect form and one with terrible form. You pick the guy with the terrible form because you can teach him to be better. We know what kind of a reliever Buddy Boshers is, we don't know what Wilk could be. I'd take Wilk every day.
  2. ThejacKmp
    I mean, all kinds of guys have bad outings. The indictment of a rule 5 pick shouldn't be one game. Haley hasn't been good but he is a Rule 5 pick. Those guys are overmatched and you're trying to sneak them through the year in a mop-up role so that you can send them down to the minors and work on things in a low-leverage position the next year. That's how Rule 5 is supposed to work. Your Tepesch criticism is right on though. That was sad and that's what paved the way for Haley on Sunday -- the Twins used a lot of pitchers Saturday so Haley was in a game that was way too close for your Rule 5 pickup. Not sure who else they should be turning them into? Tepesch is pretty awful but I'm encouraged by Wilk's potential as a LOOGY. There just aren't amazing players floating around on the wire. I'd like to see Wimmers/Burdi/Chargois get a shot as the summer goes along but I'm willing to trust the FO that those guys aren't quite ready yet and indulge them throwing things at the wall to see what sticks with a guy like Wilk.
  3. ThejacKmp
    This is how you defend the move: Thrylos posted his splits against lefties over the last three years in AAA. They are ridiculous - high K rates, low BA against. It's not crazy to see him as a reliever and though the Twins can't start him in the minors like you might prefer to, he's not going to be in high leverage situations. It's not like the Twins used him to replace Pressley, he replaced Rucinski. The Twins haven't been pressed for position players and are carrying 13 pitchers. With the lack of left handed pitching in the upper minors, it's not awful to take a shot on him with Rucinski's roster spot and use him as a low-leverage mop up man while experimenting with him as a LOOGY in the vein of Ryan O'Rourke. P.S. While looking on BR, I saw that Wilk's minor league hitting features a .596 OPS. That's not bad for a pitcher. I'm going to file that away for when the Twins play a 14 inning game in a NL park this summer . . .
  4. ThejacKmp
    David Hurlbut is a starting pitcher thriving in AAA. That's actually more of a need for the Twins. After years of tons of mediocre depth, the Twins have a pretty bare stable of starting pitching. It's Santana, Hughes and Santiago at the MLB level and Mejia, Berrios and Gibson in AAA. Then you have Tepesch and Hurlbut. With Gibson struggling, Tepesch being Tepesch, Mejia being unproven and Phil Hughes a pretty big injury risk, the Twins need Hurlbut as emergency depth. It would not surprise me at all if he started a game or two for the Twins this year. He's likely #7 or #8 in the starting pitching ranks and teams regularly hit that guy. I wouldn't mind seeing what he can do. I was pretty upset about Wilk when I first heard it. Then we heard he's not going to be starting. Then I looked at his splits against lefties. Then I looked at our current left handed relievers (Rogers and a bunch of trash). Then I realized I was wrong to be upset about Wilk. We overreacted ladies and germs. Apologies to the front office, they weren't wrong on this one. Way to do your homework. (But if Tepesch starts more than one more game I'm going to poop in the glove outside Target Field. That man is not even hot garbage, he's frozen garbage you scrape off the driveway after the raccoons get into your trash in November.) EDIT: I forgot Duffey. There is Duffey. But he'd likely need to be stretched out a bit and I like him in the pen. But there is Duffey.
  5. ThejacKmp
    Were we told or did we tell ourselves? I don't remember any member of the Twins FO saying that the picks would be studs. They understand that development is tough.
  6. ThejacKmp
    There's a Salt N Peppa lyric about opinions that you should Google (it's a bit too vulgar for here, Google "Opinions are like"). Opinions are awesome but they matter when they are backed up by logic and facts - that's what moves them from "could bes" to "probablys" or even "certainlys". No one here was mean or disrespectful during the whole process and no one got testy until you started coming back full of fire at very reasonable arguments (Kohl Stewart is underperforming but he's still super young, we shouldn't give up hope). You made an emotional assertion that multiple people showed to have little validity using logic and numbers. Doesn't mean you're a bad person or dumb, we all do that from time to time. Like I did that last week about Kyle Gibson. Things seem one way in the moment and then time shows that we overreacted (see Dozier, Brian or Sano, Miguel). Not surprising that happens more often in sports and politics. Fandom is an emotional thing - the reason we come on this board is to take that emotion and subject it to some scientific process in order to find a bit of larger truth. And because we have nothing better to do. One advanced hint: when someone throws numbers at you, look at 'em and go find numbers of your own. If one person says "This is true" and the other person says "But numbers" the numbers always win. Numbers vs. Numbers is a whole different ballgame.
  7. ThejacKmp
    Yeah, I just mean when he's back. Adrianza adds nothing of value to this team - we don't particularly need to replace Polanco late, Escobar has been a great utility guy per usual and he isn't going to be an upgrade over Santana with the bat or the glove in the OF. I also think the Twins minor league IF depth is much better than their OF depth - Escobar is ready to step in 2B, SS and 3B and the Twins can always being up Tommy Field or Vielma to take over that backup role. In the OF you have Granite and Palka - Palka seems more like a DH/1B type and Granite isn't exactly ready for the majors. I'd've kept Santana til Park was ready because he can pinch run and steal a base. And then I'd bring Park up for him.
  8. ThejacKmp
    Danny Santana is clearly better than Grossman. And I have a hard time believing that Adrianza, who has never played OF at the MLB level and whose entire MILB experience in the OF is three games at Rochester, is going to be anything but a disaster in the OF. He's a good SS but I've seen enough of Escobar and Nunez in the OF to say that most IFs look like garbage in the OF. Santana was at least relatively competent. The Twins were playing Santana too much but Buxton is an injury risk - Grossman is going to be playing a decent amount of OF and that should scare us. The silver lining is Vargas is going to get all of the time at DH he wants. This is a very lateral move and any injuries in the OF could make this something the Twins really regret.
  9. ThejacKmp
    See I don't want Adrianza in the OF. I remember Escobar in the OF and it was awful. I want Grossman as 4th OF against tough lefties and I want Escobar as primary utility IF. Adrianza should be used as a defensive replacement I guess? Not sure I know how much better he is than Polanco. I'd much rather have Park for pinch hitting.
  10. ThejacKmp
    Is he? He's a step up in the IF and a step back in the OF. If he takes PT from Escobar that means you traded Escobar's bat and D for Grossman's bat and D (he's now the 4th OF). I'm not sure that's a win for the Twins. It's a super lateral move. I'd rather see Park as a PH. Might actually win you a game. Santana could at least steal a base, I don't see what Adrianza adds to this team.
  11. ThejacKmp
    Rucinski is unlikely to actually pitch in the one week stint he's up, perhaps they want to bring a guy who isn't in the long term plans because they're not wasting development time.
  12. ThejacKmp
    Interesting to see if Adrianza's May 10th deadline means Danny Santana is in his last week with the Twins. Perhaps the strong showing by Vargas makes this more likely? If Grossman isn't going to be your everyday DH, he deserves more opportunity as the 4th OF. That makes Santana significantly less valuable. That said, the Twins haven't really needed a middle infielder - Sano and Polanco have not demanded defensive substitution late in games and Escobar has hit so well I wouldn't want to see Adrianza taking his PT. Not sure where I fall on it. Santana has the ability to steal a base and play a better OF, Adrianza has that new (used) car smell and plays a better IF. They're even both switch-hitters. I guess I'd stick Santana for the pinch running ability but I can't blame anyone who feels the opposite. It's just so hard to know where the Twins will have a need - OF or IF. My gut says the OF. I think this mainly shows that the 25th man is not that important.
  13. ThejacKmp
    The military academies don't get one-and-done athletes so it's not like they're not trying to get guys a diploma - see Jax coming back for his senior year. The military suffers because they don't get elite recruits. If you tell a guy, "Going to our college means you can never play pro", that's a tough decision. It's a much easier sell to say, "We expect you to graduate and serve your country - however, if you develop into a pro prospect, we'll let you follow that dream too." Wouldn't you rather have your recruits be really good athletes, many of whom won't be pro prospects and will be elite rangers/Seals etc.? This rule makes it so anyone with a dual dream of pro sports and the military has to choose - and the academies get worse recruits as a result. Dumb. And as several people have said, the DoD makes money off of these guys from alumni and video games and what not so it's not like they get nothing from the experience. Terrible decision -- any info on whether this was a WH decision? A DoD decision? Unless it causes major morale problems in the Army (hard to see that but possible), I don't get it.
  14. ThejacKmp
    I don't disagree with the overall theme but Mauer is a weird counterexample -- people have been castigating him his entire career.
  15. ThejacKmp
    And now it's time.
  16. ThejacKmp
    He's battled well. I like leaving him in. It isn't like the Twins bullpen is amazing. Knocks on wood.
  17. ThejacKmp
    Can't believe they didn't walk Sano.
  18. ThejacKmp
    Sano passes Pujols for most RBI. Man, that Pujols contract is brutal. 4 years $114 million after this season
  19. ThejacKmp
    I'll take credit for that Castro single with my well-timed insult. Rosario's mom smells.
  20. ThejacKmp
    Time for Castro to bat 9th. I get playing the hot hand early in the season but that's two weeks ago. He's a real rally killer. I like having Polanco, Rosario and Buxton in a row so we have speed on the bases but they can do that as easily 6, 7, 8 as 7, 8, 9. Dozier isn't that fast, Castro won't cramp his style. Also, related point, I love a Twins lineup that has no inning I'm not excited about. Kepler, Sano, Mauer? Awesome. Vargas, Castro, Polanco? Fun too. Polanco, Rosario, Buxton? Get them boys running. I don't miss Jason Tyler and Nick Punto at all.
  21. ThejacKmp
    Time to get Engelb Vielma up to AAA. He's now got 110 games at Chattanooga with a .684 OPS. There's no one blocking him at AAA (Gonzalez is organizational filler and Adrianza is headed to the majors in the next few days) and Vielma and Gordon both need to be playing SS 75% of the time. Time to see if he can hit AAA pitching. If he holds his own, the Twins have a really nice shortstop ready to take over if they trade Dozier and move Polanco to 2B. He may just keep it warm for Gordon but at the least he's a nice utility option (if not trade bait if he shows he can hit on an MLB level).
  22. ThejacKmp
    He is 21 and has shown an ability to adjust.
  23. ThejacKmp
    No offense but this makes no sense - the whole point of exit velocity is that no matter where you hit the ball, the harder you hit it the more likely you are to get a hit. For every DP that a guy gets because he hit it hard, he's likely to lose one because a fielder can't get to the ball. If we were going to guess who would hit into DPs you'd pick someone who doesn't hit the ball super hard or soft - someone in the middle. Also, it's time to stop rippin' Mauer for grounding into an obscene number of double plays. Throughout his career, Mauer has hit into a DP in 13% of situations where a double play is possible. The league average is 11%. He is slightly above average but not by some obscene amount.
  24. ThejacKmp
    Unfair to criticize the Twins for not buying a year of Dozier's free agency. No way that was ever on the table on his end. Because he came up in his mid 20s, he won't hit free agency until he's 30. He was absolutely not interested in hitting free agency a year later - the later he hits it, the less likely he is to get that massive pay day. Dozier at 30 might get a big deal, Dozier at 31 is significantly less likely to get a big deal. I'm not saying there's no number you could give him that would make him give up a year but I am confident that that number is so high that the Twins would be insane to think about it. The deal they signed was the right deal and only possible deal.
  25. ThejacKmp
    Obviously its always easier to win two series than three but I'm not sure that the Twins wouldn't have done it. They were a perfect playoff team - they hit like crazy with a ton of HR power and they really only had two pitchers so being able to start those guys 5/7 or 4/5 games was a huge benefit (most teams did three pitchers back then). You only got one or two games of Les Straker. Oh and they had a relatively nice pen. Sometimes a team gets hot. The 87 Twins were that team.
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