ThejacKmp

He hasn't had a good enough year to get anything at the deadline. At this point he's just depth. But it wasn't crazy to think he could have a good/lucky start to the season and be moved if some twins minor league guys seemed ready. Didn't work out but the concept want awful. Hopefully those moves are based on scouting structures that go beyond one gm - they have guys they like in a list somewhere.

Agreed. I'm not sitting here saying that TR should still be there or is a genius. Just saying that it's naïve to say that TR wasn't skilled at finding talent outside of the draft. Every GM does some of it and TR is no exception. To those points: Tommy Milone got expensive but I'd still place him in the "well-done" pile as I'm confused why Oakland gave him away. With the way that starting pitching cost has escalated, it isn't until next year that it becomes a no-deal to pay Tommy Milone. He hasn't worked out too well this year but $4.5 million is a pretty cheap price to pay for back of the rotation left-handed depth. If he'd had a better start (and the Twins had better options) he could've been flipped for a minor prospect too. Not saying Tommy had a bright future but he was nice depth at a cheap price. Eduardo Nunez is more interesting but with the Twins looking to potentially flip him for something interesting at the deadline, he could turn out to be a nice little move.

Yeah, that's why I use the TR/Twins throughout. I also think it's impossible to think of the Bill Smith era without including TR. He was a senior advisor involved in the decision-making process and the guy making the final call was his protege. I think it's fair to give TR some credit/responsibility for the Smith era.

Your top 5 thing makes no sense: - Few of the Twins best prospects in the high minors/majors were drafted in the Top 5. Berrios was picked late 1st, Rosario/Gonsalves were picked in the 4th and Kepler/Sano/Jorge/Polanco/Thorpe were astute international signings. Yes the Twins have Buxton but to say that the Twins prospect depth is based on Top 5 picks is naïve. - And TR should get credit for the Top 5 picks he’s made. Picking in the MLB Top 5 isn't like the NFL or the NBA, where most guys turn out to be at least rotation players. Baseball is more of a crapshoot, even in the top 5. Less than half of top 5 picks become successful players. The Twins should actually get credit for some very astute drafting in the top 5 or 6 as Tyler Jay, Nick Gordon, Kohl Stewart and Buxton all are still legitimate prospects who look to play key roles in the future of the Twins. That isn’t a given and TR and the Twins should get some props for that. I also think it’s incorrect to say that “practically every attempt TR made to supplement [Top 5] talent went bad.” Terry Ryan has also done many good things acquiring talent in other ways: - His trades for May and Meyer were good trades. The Twins got legitimate prospects while trading from a place of depth (Revere especially - replacement level player). Just because Meyer has been hurt and May has stagnated a bit this year doesn’t make the value gained in those trades any less. Both players are still part of the Twins plans for the future and besides, you can’t judge a move on how much WAR the player gets. Injuries happen and there are no givens – both of those trades were good value and were smart moves I would do again. - Terry Ryan (and Bill Smith before him) is actually pretty amazing at getting value for useless players. TR got Daniel Palka for Chris Hermann (amazing to get anything!), Tommy Milone for Sam Fuld and Nunez for Butera (via Miguel Sulbaran). That’s not super sexy but being able to get something for basically nothing is really pivotal for building a 25 man roster. The Twins have to hope that Anthony is as good getting useful parts for players with limited upside like Plouffe and Suzuki. - TR’s done a pretty good job not losing players via the Rule 5, which is harder than it seems when you have lots of young unproven players. TD has slammed him for this but Jones came back from the Brewers and Sean Gilmartin has pretty conclusively shown that last year was a fluke. TR even picked up Ryan Pressly and J.R. Graham from the Rule 5 – Pressly at least seems like a good bullpen option for the Twins to come. - Robbie Grossman was a nice pickup who might have some value either as small trade bait or as a 4th OF in the future. This isn’t to say that you couldn’t highlight mistakes TR has made but it’s really unfair to say that (A.) anyone can pick well in the top 5, (B.) that the Twins enviable prospect depth is based on Top 5 picks and (C.) that TR was unable to add talent outside of high draft picks. It is likely time for TR to go (though if the Pohldad’s don’t stop being cheapskates I don’t see how the next guy is going to do better than TR – not sure why that isn’t the story) but I think we should give credit where credit is due: TR has done an admirable job restocking the Twins minor league system after it bottomed out in the early 2010s. The Twins are a year or two away from contention but the fact that the future looks that rosy is a testament to TR.

Cleveland rocks! Cleveland rocks!

That’s a fair point but I still think it’s off to say the Twins should have known Mauer would be done. Two thoughts: First of all, Mauer was done in by concussions, his knees are fine. I don’t think taller guys are more likely to get concussions. That said, I take the point that Mauer had some overall health issues. If Ramos had been traded in 2012 when Mauer was 29 I’d understand the consternation more but he was traded when Mauer was 27. The Twins had a reasonable expectation Mauer could at least play half the season at catcher as he got to age 31 or 32 and keeping Ramos for 5 years as a back-up or at best platoon catcher is not an ideal use of resources. Secondly, there are a lot of taller catchers who have had fine long careers. Gary Carter was 6’2”, Mike Scioscia was 6’2”, Javy Lopez was 6’3”, Matt Wieters is 6’5”, Sandy Alomar Jr. was 6’5” and Mike Piazza was 6’3” (according to baseball reference). If Salvador Perez became available, I think most TDers would be ecstatic and not worry he’s 6’3”. Height is likely not ideal for a catcher but it doesn’t mean a great player (like Joe) can’t succeed at an unusual size for his position (and trends change as well – big shortstops were frowned upon until A-Rod and co. showed you didn’t need to be 5’8” to be a SS). P.S. The tallest catcher in MLB history was amazing. Loved corn whiskey, fought teammates and opponents all the time, was suspended for drinking repeatedly in the wild era of the early 1900s when it was harder to get suspended, ended his career suspended for brawling with his manager in a hotel lobby, and was killed a few years later when he was shot while trying to attack a bartender. I would bet that Joe Mauer has never even tried corn whiskey. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larry_McLean

(1) The Twins signed Mauer to that big contract with the idea he would catch for more than the first 3-4 years of it. They knew that he would likely not finish the contract as a catcher but they thought they'd be able to ease him out of it in the past few years, not lose him at age 30. I'd challenge you to find a single newspaper article at the time of the signing that said Joe would be done catching in 2013. Sometimes bad things happen to good people and saying "You should have known" isn't helpful or fair. (2) Ramos was traded in 2010 and Joe was a full-time catcher until 2013. The Ramos trade didn't leave a hole, you would've had a backup who was overqualified for the job with no real end in sight. It was fine to trade him. The Twins options since haven't panned out which leaves you where half the league is most years - treading water with replacement level catchers and fishing the murky waters of catchers in their 30s on short term deals. You can't win them all. (3) As far as a free agent contract goes, large free agent commitments to catchers are almost universally a poor idea. Since 2012, it's hard to find a marquee signing you wish the Twins had made. The big contracts that went bad are Russell Martin (ugh), Saltalamacchia (double ugh) and Carlos Ruiz (not worth it). Matt Weiters is too early to tell but that's not one with a ton of upside. The only one that looks maybe okay is Brian McCann and that's a huge maybe since he has two more years on the deal at age 35 and was paid $17 mill/year. Catchers generally aren't available by free agency. (4) This leaves the draft, which is of course a crap shoot. If there isn't a catcher available where you pick, you can't reach and grab one. Maybe someone who is better versed in the draft can highlight a place where the Twins chose not to grab a catcher but didn't but I can't remember one. A brief look at the first round doesn't show much hope. Of catchers taken in the first since Mauer, the only names of distinction are Posey and Weiters (both of whom were taken before the Twins picked that year). There are 10-15 other first round catchers taken who either never made the majors or never turned into even decent average catchers. By far the best of these is Jarrod Saltalamacchia of the career 0.4 WAR. The Twins have tried in the draft but again, you don't always win. Hindsight is 20/20. What would you have done differently? Who would you have signed/traded for/drafted? Catching is thin - if you lose your franchise catcher at a surprisingly early age, you're likely going to struggle to replace him for awhile. It's the QB of baseball, not the punter.

I don't know that you can say that it should be apparent that Mauer wouldn't be able to catch at 31/32. There are tons of catchers still active at that age. They don't tend to be as good but Mauer as a catcher was amazing (if he was a catcher right now, no one would be complaining about his hitting, he'd be a very good option at catcher). He suddenly and unexpectedly couldn't catch and I think it's hard to blame the Twins for not being ready for this - you can't prepare for everything. Trading Ramos made sense for a team with eyes on the postseason - they just needed to get more than Fat Craps. Stupid Bill Smith. I also don't think you can say the Twins haven't invested in the position - they have, it just hasn't turned out perfectly, which happens in a world where we don't have the benefit of hindsight. The Twins have drafted some high-upside catchers in Garver and Turner who have taken some time (as catchers tend to). They also had Pinto* set up and concussions and fielding issues just never quite put him into the mix on the MLB level. The Twins even traded for JRM - it hasn't worked (yet) but was the right move to make. They didn't do the stupid thing and go sign a Russell Martin (woof to that contract BTW - a warning sign about pursuing Ramos this offseason). Suzuki hasn't been amazing but he's been an okay stop gap and likely worth the money invested as he has certainly better over the past three or four years than anyone else in his pay slot on the free market. Catcher is a probably the hardest position to be set at (maybe shortstop too?) so sometimes you have trouble with it. I like (but don't love) the future options for the position and understand the reasonable moves that left the Twins in this position. It happens, we'll be better in the future. * Was looking at Pinto because I'd forgotten about him. He's tearing it up in AAA for the Brewers (.965 OPS with lots of doubles) but only catching about half the time, playing first the rest. I don't know if that's a catching depth thing or a "he's not much more than an emergency backup catcher" type thing. Would love to see him do well, always enjoyed the way he played.

Also, while I have loved Chih-Wei Hu for years and was sad to see him leave, his upside is #3 starter right? And more likely he's a back of the rotation starter? It's sad that Jepsen fell apart but I don't think this is a "this will haunt the Twins" trade, more of a "oh well, we took a shot and came up on the short end of the stick" trade.

Coming into the season I would have said he was more legit than Jay and Stewart, trailing only Berrios. Nothing this season has changed that. As much as we worry about Twins pitching in 2017 (rightfully so), a June 2017 rotation of Berrios, Gonsalves, May, Hughes and Gibson might be pretty decent. Enough to be in playoff contention if some of the hitters take a jump. And the next wave of pitching talent (Jay, Stewart, Jorge) would be right behind them. All Star break positivity!

The Twins were always going to trade Ramos since they understandably thought that it was a position of strength given the presence of one of the all-time greats at the position. People had a concept that they would eventually move Mauer to 1B or 3B or somewhere but it was expected that move was years away and that it would be a slow transition. Concussions are the worst. Ramos needed to play everyday so he became trade bait (same thing may happen to Polanco if the Twins remain committed to Dozier). So it's not trading Ramos that is the issue, it's the fact that all they got was Fat Craps for him. Stupid Fat Craps.

I think 2-3 would count as a good many. I kept it vague with "good many" for a reason! If you were to set an over/under I think it would be 2.5. I'd take the over in that case - I think at least three of Abad, Suzuki, Plouffe and Santana will be on another team come September 1st (and in that order for likelihood of being traded goes). It's also hard to base "how many guys traded" on more than the past few years because the 5th wild card really changes things in favor of sellers. There are only 4 "clearly selling" teams in the AL and 7 in the NL (though a hot streak out the break from the Rockies could make that 6). Hopefully the Twins are active right out of the gate in the second half before some of the .500 teams can swoon and become sellers.

Not as high on Granite, still profiles as a 4th OF (though a relatively nice one of course!) rather than a leadoff hitter and regular OF.

I mean, I get some negativity towards the front office but they do get this team is not going anywhere. The front office can read the standings and is playing for next year. You can make good arguments to trade and to keep Dozier/Nunez/Tonkin/Pressley but Plouffe, Suzuki, Abad and Santana will all be on the block. They won't give Santana away but the rest will be readily available. As for the former guys, I think they'll trade them if they get a nice offer and feel comfortable keeping them if not. That's probably as it should be. Dozier and Polanco are a bit messy but Dozier is tradable in the offseason if need be. Tonkin and Pressley are decent controllable relievers. Nunez depends on what you think of him going forward and what other teams are willing to pony up. We make a sport out of hating the Twins FO on these blogs but you have to be really negative to think they're that out of touch. The Twins will be open to actively trading a solid 1/3 to 1/2 of the roster and a good many will go.

I guess you could argue that the Twins might want to keep Suzuki and try to trigger the option since it would be only 1 year and $6 million and they'd want that since they have no one. However there are a lot of holes in that: (1) As indicated above, it's hard to get Suzuki to 485 plate appearances. One DL stint or even one minor injury that costs him three days and you have no shot. You'd get nothing for him and he's a free agent anyway. (2) The $6 million seems about the most Suzuki's going to make this offseason on the open market. And even if it bumps up to $8 million for example, you'd have to think the Twins would value the prospect they get back more than the outside chance it costs them $2 million more to sign Suzuki. (3) I guess you could argue that Suzuki is going to get more than one year as a free agent, which the Twins may not want. That still seems unlikely since he's 33 going into next year with over 1200 games on his knees and a pretty poor track record for ongoing success. He seems to be in the "1 year deal with a team/vesting option" territory from here on out. And if he isn't and some team gives him 2 guaranteed years, well, you can always get someone similar on a 1 year deal. (4) The Twins don't have great internal options for next year but JRM is a decent option for a bounce-back year and Mitch Garver is doing okay in AA. Neither is amazing but either could be a backup/platoon catcher to a vet you bring in and potentially take the starting job. Trade Suzuki. If they can get Palka for Hermann and Miguel Sulabran (later traded for Eduardo Nunez) for Drew Butera, they can get something worthwhile for a half-season of Suzuki.

I think the keeping Suzuki vs. trading him is a moot point since he has very little chance of vesting his 2017 option by getting 485 at bats. He currently has 212 plate appearances while appearing in 59 games which comes out to about 3.5 plate appearances per game - that's a bit below the average 8 or 9 hitter (who hits about 3.8 times per game) but not unusual since catchers often are pulled for a pinch hitter or get credit for a game appearance when they only catch the last inning or two. Suzuki is unlikely to hit above the 8 hole for any contending team he is traded to. Most teams have played 89 games at the break, which leaves 73 games to go. If Suzuki started 90% of his team's remaining games (that seems unlikely but could happen) and we bump him up to 4 at bats per game (again unlikely but we're creating a most-plate-appearances scenario here), he'd end up with 263 additional plate appearances. That gets him 475 for the year, still 10 under his limit. And again, that's assuming 4 plate appearances instead of 3.5 and 90% of games played. It also assumes that the team that traded for him sees him as more than a one-year solution and isn't actively trying to keep him under 485 plate appearances. If the Twins want Suzuki back next year, they will be able to get him on the free agent market. Wanting him for next year is no reason not to trade him.

I also love reading these reports - they keep me coming back in this dreadful season. That said, this headline is super deceiving. Berrios didn't almost no-no, he gave up a hit in the 7th and then was pulled. Almost no-no is when a guy gets into the ninth (or maybe eighth if he finishes the ninth?) Keep up the good work!

This article made me go look at Hrbek on Baseball Reference where I saw he was 2nd in the MVP race in 1984. What a weird year for the AL. The first and third place guys were closers who saved 32 and 44 games. Willie Hernandez seems to have won it because Detroit won 104 games (though Kirk Gibson would likely have been a better choice if that was your criteria - Hernandez only saved 32 games and had a K rate under 1 per inning). Quisenberry finished third even though his K/9 was an anemic 2.9 (2.9!!!!!) - likely because his Royals won their division with 84 wins and there doesn't seem to be a better representative. Hrbek is an okay choice for second but you could make similar arguments for Murray (#4), Mattingly (#5) or Winfield (#8). All three of those guys played for above . 500 teams so there's nothing too amazing for Hrbek, whose Twins finished .500. Perhaps the fact that the AL East race as a romp while the mediocre AL West was close mattered? Perhaps the weirdest thing is that while Cal Ripken hit the same number of HRs as Hrbek, played every game (duh) vs Hrbek's 149 and had a .884 OPS versus a .906 OPS while playing SS versus 1B, he finished 27th in the MVP voting, showing up on only one ballot. His Orioles had a better record than the Twins and though he finished 20 RBI behind Hrbek, he also scored 20 more runs so it doesn't seem like counting stats would be that big of a deal. Ripkin had a WAR 2 points higher than the next player receiving votes. I know MVP wasn't based on modern stats but you would think that Ripkin would do better hitting .304 with 27 home runs, playing 162 games, scoring over 100 runs and driving in 86 runs for a team over .500. Super weird MVP race.

JT Chargois hasn't distinguished himself? I know he had 2/3 of a bad inning in the majors but we can all agree that's a small sample right? In 26.1 minor league innings this year he has an ERA of 1.02 and has struck out 36 (12.3 K/9) and walked only 9. Last year he put up a 2.62 ERA with a 9.9 K/9 and only 25 walks in 48 innings. There is absolutely no reason to think that JT Chargois will not be the Twins closer of the future. He has better stats than Nick Burdi and is closer to the bigs.

If he had allowed two three-run homers, his numbers would look average as well. We can't fault guys for home runs they haven't given up

This may be stupid but since an unsigned pick becomes a compensatory pick one slot lower in the next year's draft, is there any point to the Twins saying, "Screw you Braves, we're picking Ian Anderson 15th and offering him $2 million"? Ian Anderson then has to decide if he wants to be in the majors or go to junior college and wait a year. The Twins either get the same pick next year (small loss of a season of development but not too awful - especially for a loaded system like the Twins who don't desperately need the infusion of talent right away) or get a very good prospect who agrees to sign for $2 million because he wants to start his pro career. And they screw over the Braves. Perhaps the reason not to do this is it hurts your reputation with prospects and agents? Though I can't see how, it's gaming the system the same way the Braves would be.

And if he does, you can no longer afford him because he's a year away from free agency, has done it two years in a row and you're competing with every other team in the league. You just don't get that same deal if you wait a year - you'd be paying $20 million per year. The Twins aren't going to do that - if they wanted to keep Phil Hughes longer, after that season was when to do it, right or wrong. The Twins didn't extend him into his mid 30s, they extended him a few years of his early 30s - gambling that Phil could remain a #1/#2 and would at least be worth a #4 if he regressed some on HR or BB rates. It turned out to be a worst case scenario but hey, that's life. You take risks and hope they pan out. This one was reasonable and the outcome doesn't make it a bad one.

I'm saying go look at all of the free agent catches. Outside of trading for Lucroy or signing Russell, it was a bunch of retreads and guys who profile to be similar to Suzuki. And yeah, some have performed better. But the point is that before you had the benefit of hindsight, none of them looked like they would provide substantially better performance than Suzuki. Catchers who become available, almost by definition are pretty weak hitters with a lot of miles on them. Suzuki wasn't a great choice but there weren't a lot of good options. It's kind of like when you're buying a $1000 car. Yeah in hindsight you could have bought the civic which ran another three years but there was no way of knowing that the civic was better than the accord - they were both $1000 cars.

Sorry, was at a wedding all weekend. I'm glad you found the article but I don't see much in there that changes my mind. I'm always siding with a guy knowing his body well enough to know he doesn't have it. If the pen had done its job, this wouldn't be much of a story. We're once again looking to assign blame in hindsight. That said, the Twins should be sending him to the pen after hearing this. If you're not feeling well enough to go more than 70 pitches, it's pen time.

Disagree on all of those being “paying for a career year”: Mauer: you had to sign Mauer. You built the stadium in large part because you argued that you couldn't keep Santana/Hunter because of the Dome. You can't get rid of Mauer even if you wanted to. He doesn’t fit the “paying for a career year” model, he fits the “paying the guy who got you a sweet stadium” model. Suzuki: I think the Twins looked at the free agent market for the next offseason, looked at what it would take to trade for a catcher and decided that Suzuki was as good as any other option. And I think they were right. Look at the free agent signings the past two years. If you weren't signing Russell Martin, you weren't getting anything better than Suzuki. I think they paid him a bit extra because they wanted continuity for pitchers. Hughes: They gambled he had turned a corner. They paid #4 starter money for a potential #1 starter. I liked that gamble, even if it has failed miserably. Dozier: That contract just bought out his arbitration. You can argue they should have done more or waited but it's hardly a crazy contract - they maintained some cost certainty and Dozier saved himself from getting hurt. On TD we mostly wanted the Twins to sign him longer - we seem to be wrong so far this year, not that we'll ever admit it!