ThejacKmp

Vargas has hit better against lefties that righties in his career. This year is the definition of a small sample size. Monitor has also shown no desire to move Sano from 3B and play him extensively at 1B. The last time Sano played 1B was on April 22nd. We are much more likely to see Sano playing 3B with some DH on days off and see Mauer, Vargas and Grossman playing the vast majority of the time at 1B/DH.

Hate has multiple meanings. I don't mean hate like you would spit on him if you saw him in the streets. I meant that you hate on his game. I think that's pretty obvious from the context if you actually read the whole thing. You are, you found an essentially meaningless stat to use as an argument rather than examining the full picture. I can tell you haven't really looked at the numbers by you last sentence. If you looked at Vargas's numbers you'd see that his MLB OBP+ is 105, decidedly average. Take a look at his minor league numbers: .809 OPS in AAA, .849 in AA. This isn't to say that Kennys Vargas is a bad player, just that you're hyping him a little aggressively. I think you'd also benefit from going back through this forum. You keep switching the argument and ignoring the vast majority of what people say to focus on some small detail you can nitpick.

Yeah but he's tailed off playing against lefties since Vargas has come up. Before that the Twins right handed 1B option (assuming they wanted Sano to play mostly at 3B for continuity) was Gimenez. Now the Twins have a real option and they have been sitting him against lefties the past ten days or so. I imagine that will continue now that the Twins have Vargas.

But this year he'll be getting time off as he is rested against lefty starters. That's 30% more rest (and the loss of at bats with the least likelihood of success). He should be able to stay healthier. The Twins also have options should he need a few days off - he won't have to play through things and watch his numbers drop.

So glad to have Berrios going for the shut out tomorrow. And I hope the Orioles throw another lineup with 7 righties up against a right handed starter. Underrated part of the Twins is their ability to match up with the switch hitters and balance through the lineup.

I am decidedly unconcerned.

Who are these great table setters? The best was Span and after that it's a bunch of weak hitting middle infielders. His approach likely has something to do with it and shows why RBI is a dumb way to look at it. Mauer's OBP has been insanely valuable and shouldn't be dismissed because he doesn't fit the 1986 version of valuable. RBIs aren't "not the best number"- they are literally useless. Meaningless. Crap. They mean nothing. If you want RBIs to matter in judging an individual player (that is what we're doing, we're not saying "what helps a team win"), you need to find some other variable: number of attempts, OBP with guys in scoring position etc. Never use RBI in an argument, it will never ever help. Finally, that doesn't help. Kennys Vargas has 66 at bats and is the definition of short sample. Same with last year's 152 at bats that were buoyed by a hot streak against September pitching on the worst team in the majors. You're cherrypicking. Mauer had a slow start to this year but as the article shows, his peripheral stats are very good and he has bounced back considerably over the past three weeks. It's early. He may be down but he's had a great BB to K rate, has hit the ball hard and has a low BABIP. He'll trend up. The Mauer hate is so overblown.

Target Field is the house that Mauer Built. They built that stadium so they could afford to keep him.

Who is he blocking? Sano is fine at 3B and Vargas has not seized the DH job so it's not like there is no spot for him. There's no one in the high minors being blocked at 1B (or 3B if you want Sano at 1B). Not Park. Maybe Palka but he isn't doing anything in AAA that makes you want him up. That could change in a year or two with Lewin Diaz or however the Gordon/Vielma/Dozier/Polanco pileup shakes out but for now, he blocks no one. The Twins are in first place. They are better with Mauer playing against righties. He absolutely deserves his roster spot.

Agreed. Unless Sano needs to play 1B and the Twins already have someone at DH, if Mauer puts up an 800-820 OPS playing mostly against righties, he's worth well more than that. I'd feel comfortable going $8 mill a year on a series of 1 year deals. Maybe his brother will be manager by then?

Again, RBIs are a stat you should stop using. They don't prove anything other than "This guy hits with guys on base in front of him." Also RBI does not equal good hitter.

I listen until you say Morneau had more RBI. That can't be the crux of a well-presented argument. Morneau hit behind Mauer his entire career, Mauer hit behind Luis Castillos and Nick Puntos. RBI are utterly meaningless. Morneau had a 120 OPS+. (I know this isn’t the grandmother of stats but it’s an interesting quick way to look at it) Not sure Puckett is real either. If you go by OPS, Mauer has a 127 and Puckett a 124. And that's with Puckett not having a downslope of his career because of Glaucoma. If you take just the first 12 years of Mauer's career his OPS is up to 129. I think it's hard to make a convincing argument Puckett is better than Mauer - especially when you consider how differently bullpens are used these days. Mauer faces tough lefties later in games, not starters on their 4th time through a lineup. Or that Mauer caught 120+ games his first ten years, much harder than playing CF. Tony Oliva is interesting too. He’s at a 131 OPS+. That again doesn’t include catching/concussions/relievers who throw 100 in the 8th etc. Ditto for Bob Allison. And Kent Hrbek (128 OPS+). I’m not saying Mauer is for sure better than all of these guys (except Morneau) just that none of them are for sure better. If we’re go to ranks, I’m comfortable saying that Harmon Killebrew is for sure the best hitter in Twins history. Carew is only a 131 OPS but I’m willing to say he’s unequivocally better because he did it for 19 years which is just insane. After that, I’m not sure you can say that Mauer isn’t #3. You can make a good argument for Puckett or Oliva and a stretchier argument for a Hrbek or an Allison. But to me it’s Mauer and I can’t see how someone could call me a fool for thinking that.

No. A minor league season is not the same as a major league season. It's longer and more strenuous. There's more media attention. The Twins were absolutely right to want Berrios to hit the ground running and to think that some time in AAA might make that easier. No one is past that. Everyone was down on Park until he had a hot spring and now he's a TD darling. Spring training doesn't decide things but it does matter. The stats just aren't the thing that does it -- it matters what coaches and front office personnel see. I trust them more than your hindsight. So should they go to a six man rotation? Seven? That would create more rest days. A good team but not the offensive powerhouse that Boston is. Cleveland was scuffling and again, the road vs. home thing works for Berrios in that situation. Get some confidence going and avoid a home booing.

You can't compare Santiago and Berrios. For one thing, Santiago pitched well in the WBC and Berrios got lit up. For another, Santiago has been through 8 or 9 spring trainings, he knows how to get his body right. Berrios doesn't. And finally, if Santiago is pushed too hard, the Twins don't care that much, he isn't an integral part of the future like Berrios. The lack of big league success is not the factor either. Otherwise Vogelsong would have had the job. Mejia's path also isn't the same as Berrios' path. He was there the entire spring and won the job fair and square. He ramped up the way the Twins want a younger guy to do and he really earned that spot. Berrios would have been getting the spot based on reputation and placating fans. No way he should start the season in the rotation. Spring training stats don't matter that much but the spring training process is vital, particularly for young pitchers. I also disagree with the "4 starters is stupid." There's a value to giving guys the ball every 5th day. Yeah you want to sprinkle in some days of extra rest but you also want guys to have a rhythm. You would have gotten less Ervin starts to begin the year, not sure how that would help. The only start that was dumb was the Tepesch one. But even that may not have been that dumb - I'm glad that Berrios got to debut against the Indians on the road instead of the Red Sox at home. That Red Sox lineup is fierce and if Berrios had a hiccup his first time out, I can see not wanting him to get booed by the home fans (if he'd been knocked out early, Twins fans would have booed him). He's young and an emotional guy, they gave him a chance to breath if he had a bad first game. It's not like he has a home in the Twin Cities, he's essentially on the road either way.

I've been to the lake from the boundary waters. My buddies and I went on a canoeing trip after graduating and that was where we wanted to be. God we were poetic in our youth.

I said 4 out saves twice, not four 8th inning appearances. I think it's pretty clearly written too. He's in close games, which I think is the point. He's also being used to come into innings where there's mess on base (I didn't look at the game logs but I watch enough Twins baseball to know this is true). Duffey seems to be the guy they bring in to put out the fire and then go another inning or two. I hope he continues to be used this way, he's the guy I feel best with. Larger point: Thus far this season, Molitor is one of the most innovative bullpen managers in the game. Things may change over time but the Reds would fall in the same boat of "How good are these guys, it's that the reason for the shuffling?"

Cheap beer has it's place. On a warm summer day, an ice cold Hamms is invigorating in a way a much fancier beer isn't. I'd like to see you play four games of beer pong and three games of flip cup with some Surly. I'd also like to see a poor college student get drunk on a Wednesday afternoon on a pricey IPA without turning to drug dealing and self-prostitution. That's right, Hamm's is a force for morality and a key cog in the war on drugs. Here's a better analogy: Being the best cheap beer is like being the fastest offensive lineman. You're not the fastest on the team but you're the fastest of a vital cog of the drinking team.

I'm insulted that you don't consider Hamms a beer. It's the best of the cheap beers. For shame.

I think they shortchanged the Twins in this article. http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/19409515/the-bullpen-revolution-not-televised 1.) Brandon Kintzler has been used for a 4 out save twice this year. That’s more than most teams in the majors and is especially bold because Kintzler is not that good. 2.) Tyler Duffey, though in the starting conversation in spring training, has been used in a very Andrew Miller-esque role this season. Past Twins teams would have used him as a long man when starters get beat up but Duffey has not entered a game where the Twins trailed by more than 2 and has only twice pitched in a game the Twins were up by 4 or more runs – he’s been used in high leverage roles. Duffey has pitched single innings at times and multiple innings at others. He comes in in the 5th of a close game and has pitched the 7th and 8th as a more traditional set-up man. Though he is arguably the Twins best reliever (I’d take him over Kintzler and though Craig Breslow has a lower ERA, he is still Craig Breslow) and has pitched the most innings. I’m not sure I’d call Molitor an innovator but in today’s game where having a closer is pretty standard, he’s way closer to innovative than this article gives him credit. He’s not afraid to bring his closer into the 8th inning and Tyler Duffey belongs in the conversation of guys used like Andrew Miller was in the playoffs. To me the Twins should be in that 25-27 range with the Rays, Dodgers and Red Sox. Thoughts?

I can't believe this is even an argument. You're cherrypicking and making a case with major holes. A.) 190 once (though 186 another year makes that 190 number a bit of a cherry-pick). And he's reached 150 six times. You'd rather have 60 innings than 150? That's why starting pitching is always better than relieving. That's why even the great Mariano Rivera was tried as a starter first. Same with Glen Perkins. And Joe Nathan. And Dennis Eckersley. Clubs realize that good pitching should start until it proves it can't. And before you say "And all of those guys were better relievers" - (1) that's obviously a best-case sample, there are dozens of okay starters who never work out in the pen and (2) You predicate this on Liriano being a dominant reliever, which is unproven. It's not some magical truth where decent starting pitcher = dominant closer. We'd have all dominant closers then. B.) I'm not sure a person can call three seasons an anomaly - that's a good pitcher. An anomaly is a year, maybe two at max. And it's not three years - he had two good years with the Twins as well. So a 5 season anomaly? In some places we call that a career. He's received Cy Young votes twice (9th and 11th place finishes). Your argument makes no sense - a starting pitcher with Cy Young votes in multiple years should not become a reliever unless you're sure he's going to be one of the best closers in baseball. Do you truly think that? C.) The trade thing makes no sense either. He got traded for Eduardo Escobar, a nice MLB player. Not sure that's a bucket of balls. And it was only that low because he was a 2 month rental for the White Sox before hitting free agency. The trade to Toronto was a salary dump by a franchise with limited spending. They decided to try to go young - it's also interesting that the trade was universally panned for the Pirates at the time and has been ridiculed in every article I've seen since. Trade markets are more complicated than free agency - you're competing against who is available at that weird moment in time with teams overvaluing and undervaluing guys based on what the team's needs are (see Eaton, Adam). The free agency market is a much better concept of what guys are worth because there are more options and teams can take their time. Liriano has signed a big money starting pitching contract (3 years $30 mill and only that small because he had an extra year on a make-good deal and had less bargaining power) and the Pirates would sign that deal again in a heartbeat. D.) On that vein, the market says it all. 4th and 5th starters get paid $8-10 mill/year. Jason Hammel got $16 over 2 yrs. Ivan Nova got $26 mill over 3 years. Edison Volquez got $22 mill for 2 years. The only relievers who touch that are big-time closers and the occasional dominant set-up man. The best starters blow those guys out of the water. Starting Pitching > Relief Pitching and nothing in Liriano's career suggests he shouldn't have been starting for most of his career. If a team wants to transition him to the pen late in his career, that makes some sense. He's a lefty and could extend his career a half decade. But none of that should be applied retroactively to the first half of his career.

Lineup thoughts: 1.) Good to see Mauer sitting against a lefty. I look forward to having his bat off the bench. 2.) Escobar batting 5 makes me giggle. I guess it works but man, whose utility infielder DHs and hits 5th? 3.) The good news stops there. Castro shouldn't be starting against lefties. Gimenez ain't great but play the platoon Molly.

Meh, I can see it. In the regular season, each game means the same so the #5 is at least as important as the #1. Would you rather have an ace, a pretty good guy, two okay guys and a garbage guy or two pretty good guys and three okay guys? I'd likely go the latter (until the playoffs). I think the real point is that we fret over whether or not we have an ace in Santana when the real issue the Twins are facing is "Who is the #5 starter?" Rain may mean we can get by another week or ten days with 4 starters but at some point they need a 5th starter.* If that's a rejuvenated Mejia or Gibson we might be okay but if that's Tepesch or Wilk, uh oh. It's better to go into each game with a chance than feel favored in one and screwed in another. * The scary thing is that after this week, the Twins could have four double headers pending. That means they're potentially going to need a 6th starter for big chunks of July and August. I shudder to think who that might be.

Greene or McKay. Pitching is a bit of a crapshoot but both guys have something else to fall back on. If Wright were significantly better I'd get it but he's not a once-in-every-five-drafts type of talent.

Do you also consider Sandy Koufax an ace? If you're going with guys like Felix who used to be aces, you kind of have to. Felix hasn't had an elite season since 2014. This isn't "who has been a great pitcher during their career". Also, why didn't you explore the statistical basis theory (#4)? It's the only one that is actually interesting - #1 is barely a theory, #2 isn't particularly fascinating unless you like debating who the #25 to #35 pitchers are and #3 is basically a "which pitchers are great IMO" exercise. You stated that #4 existed but never stated anything to define or even open discussion on it. It's the only one with any scientific rigor.

Combining both leagues to get 60 pitchers? There are not 60 teams in baseball. Makes the whole article suspect.