ThejacKmp

That's judging two players on a pretty narrow basis. This argument doesn’t pass muster when you examine it closer unless the sole way you judge players is by home runs – which I hope we’ve moved beyond. Power alone does not make a better player. Arcia has objectively been far, far better at every single rung of the ladder: Elizabethton: Arcia OPS 1.096, ABW .805 Cedar Rapids: Arcia OPS 1.124, ABW .844 Fort Myers: Arcia OPS .875, ABW .743 AA Ball: Arcia OPS .955, ABW .807 Arcia has also hit well at the AAA and major league levels for extended periods of time, which ABW has not done. And that’s not a matter of age since Arcia is only four or five months older (that shocked me by the way, I thought Arcia was much older than he actually was). ABW is likely a better fielding option than Arcia but it’s not like he has CF range – his best attribute is “not Arcia” in the field. Since you’re talking about a 4th OF who is likely to be replacing Miguel Sano a good chunk of the time (I assume Sano will move to DH/1B/3B whenever rest/injury allows), you’re not talking about some insane drop off in the Twins OF. And whatever that fielding advantage is, it is more than alleviated by Arcia’s significantly more polished track record. So I can’t see any reasonable argument where ABW is a better 4th OF option that Arcia. And that’s not even factoring in things like Arcia being out of options and ABW being chock full of options or that ABW hasn’t hit above AA pitching and can’t stop striking out. That said, don’t paint me into the ABW hater camp on Twins Daily - I’m super excited for him too. With some work on pitch recognition he could be an all-star. You can teach patience, you can’t teach that crazy amount of power. Even if he never does work out the strikeouts, he profiles as a really fun 4th or 5th OF and pinch hitter. So I’m not talking crap about ABW – I’m just saying that it’s ludicrous to say that ABW should be above Arcia on the depth charts. There is a very sizable gap between the two players and the Twins would be insane to rate ABW over Arcia. Arcia is criminally underrated - he is an elite former prospect who is incredibly young and has a really nice track record. Would not be surprised to see him have a breakout year if there is an early injury that gives him playing time.

As far as your last question goes, should we forbid him from changing his walk-up-to-the-plate music or from changing his sock color? Because those have an equal chance of screwing up his swing. If he doesn't hit well it won't be because of where he plays or what deodorant he uses or if he starts dating Jessica Simpson. It will be because the league figures something out about how to attack him.

(1) Michael Cuddyer is a terrible example because he had arguably his greatest stretch as a Twin in 2009 when Morneau went down and he switched to a new position, 1B, for the remainder of the season. Rather than being overmatched by his new position, he raked (OBP as 1B 1.052; as RF .817) and helped drag that Twins team back to the playoffs. He got MVP votes out of it. Clearly position doesn’t matter to Michael Cuddyer, who is comfortable playing wherever. (2) But let’s pretend that’s not the same because it’s when he was an old vet. So let’s go look at Cuddy as a youngster. Michael Cuddyer's OPS+ while playing mostly third from 2001 to 2005 was about 100 making him a pretty solid player - he didn't go into the tank because he played third. A more likely explanation for him hitting better in 2006 was that he turned 27 and entered his prime. (3) And let’s take an even closer look at Cuddy’s splits from that pre-RF time (2002 to 2005). In every year but one he hit significantly better when playing 3B than when playing corner OF. And that one season doesn’t weight it down - in aggregate he hit much better at 3B than as a corner OF. (4) And Cuddy is a terrible example for this anyways. Cuddyer played mostly 2B and 3B with the Twins in the minors, with less than 100 games in the OF. So he was moved to a position he was less comfortable with (like Sano may be asked to do) and then he hit better. A better example would be to find a player who played well at his natural position, was asked to move somewhere else where he sucked, and then moved back to his natural position and was great. The anti-Danny Santana really. (5) Did you ask a bunch of major leaguers and scouts? What is this feedback? How do you know so many managers and players? Because otherwise it’s just you making that claim and that doesn’t pass muster. That whole last bit sounds like one of those terrible columns full of platitudes and clichés that we all grew up reading in the Pioneer Press or Star Tribune. The point is that there is no evidence to show that a player’s performance in the field has huge effects on his hitting. As long as Sano is playing everyday he’ll be fine – being able to play OF makes that more likely and is thus a good thing.

But it's not on me to name an example, it's on the person claiming that struggling in the field will effect a player's hitting to provide evidence to support their claims. My whole point is there is no evidence for the claim, be it statistical or anecdotal. The fact that you can't come up with one example is evident that there is really nothing to back up this idea. There's a difference between a fact-based argument and "Well I think that this will happen." Evidence is what turns an opinion into a rational argument - and it's missing in this case. And throwing made up numbers about HRs dropping isn't evidence, it's just a fairy tale. Baseball teams shouldn't be run by the Brothers Grimm.

I firmly believe we'll see Sano-Buxton-Rosario in the OF. Time will tell. Even if Buxton doesn't make the team because the Twins are insane I think you'll see Sano-Mastrionni/Benson/Sweeny-Rosario in the OF. This concept that Arcia has a spot without Buxton has never made sense to me. He would need a monster spring to get a starting job locked up. Otherwise I think the Twins have shown that they are willing to have a CF who can't hit much start the year with the idea that a young gun will come up. And I like Arcia. I just think he's a 4th OF this year pretty much no matter what.

Even two years in Kepler was an incredibly raw prospect. If you had dropped him into the amateur draft at age 18 he would not have sniffed the first round (interesting side topic on where he might have gone - my guess would be that 3rd/4th round where players with tons of potential but a low floor go?) like Hicks. Even with two years working with the Twins, Kepler was nowhere near the prospect Hicks was going in the mid-first round. And that's why I think it's pretty useless to compare the two. The type of prospects they were, the reasons for their original struggles and the nature of their AA year (Kepler's is far superior to Hicks' in every measurable way) all make it a pretty iffy comparison. And that's even ignoring the fact that saying "Player A did this so therefore we should worry Player B will too" is always a weird argument. Denard Span made a jump from the minors to the majors after an abnormally strong year (much more dramatic of a turn around than Hicks) and has been a very good major leaguer ever since he made the jump. That doesn't mean that Kepler will do well because Span did well anymore than it means Kepler will struggle because Hicks struggled. Kepler has a pretty unique path to where he is now and some pretty good evidence (both statistical and scouting/background wise) to support that he will be all right. Using Hicks as a cautionary tale seems dubious to me.

Sano has never been a guy who lacked confidence. He has professional at bats and isn't somebody prone to bouts of self-doubt (like a Hicks for instance). Even when he isn't hitting the ball, he goes up there and takes quality at bats. I have no worries that he is some head case who will fall apart because he's around grass instead of dirt. Also, name me a player whose hitting suffered because his fielding wasn't good. Even Knoblauch continued to hit when he became unable to throw to first. Guys regularly take their hitting woes out to the field but I can't remember seeing it go the other way around. If Sano doesn't hit this year it won't be because he's in the OF, it will be because pitchers are figuring out how to attack him. That said, I agree that Plouffe should also get some time in the outfield and I imagine the Twins will do some of that in spring training. He played 31 games out there in the majors in 2011 and 2012 and while I don't remember him being good, the stats and memory don't find anything to awful.

It's not Kepler's youth we're talking about, we're talking about experience. Those two aren’t the same. Hicks grew up playing in CA, home of the best youth baseball competition the world has to offer. His dad played in the high minors and he grew up in a culture where most of the kids he knew played baseball – and if they didn’t at least they knew how to play. He was scouted starting in his sophomore year and was drafted #14 overall with comparisons to Daryl Strawberry and Adam Jones – the real question was whether he was an outfielder or a pitcher. He did not have to make a cultural transition or move across the world when starting professional baseball. Kepler grew up in Germany, where most kids don’t know how to play baseball, let alone play it at a high level. His parents were ballerinas with no experience in MLB and while he played in top German leagues, the competition was incredibly weak. He had great potential and a nice build but was rated extremely raw by scouts and was a gamble since no one signed players out of Europe. He moved to the U.S. by himself at age 16, making an extreme cultural transition while finishing high school and working out with the Twins. Those are two insanely different paths. Hicks was a highly touted and polished high school prospect who had some struggles in the low minors before having a good AA season which earned him a promotion to the majors. Kepler was a raw prospect from Europe of all places who was expected to struggle. He did that but then had a fantastic AA season, fulfilling the Twins hopes that after a period of adjustment to American life and to playing against elite competition for the first time, he would develop into a stud prospect. Hicks’ path after AA success and Kepler’s future after AA success are not a good place for comparison because the context within which each happened is so different. When Hicks had his success, there were reasons to doubt it based on him struggling in the lower minors (though Span did the same thing and was fine). Kepler, on the other hand, is a prospect following the path the Twins hoped he would. It’s basically a story of regaining prospect status versus developing into a prospect. Kepler’s success may be a mirage but it won’t have anything to do with Hicks’s experience before him. To argue that is mistaken and neglects the historical context of the two seasons.

I see the parallels but I don't know that they're entirely spot on. Kepler is different than every other prospect because he came from Germany and did not have the background a typical prospect does - he had to learn a lot about the game. So it was expected that he would struggle some at first and then hopefully take a jump. Hicks was a first round pick overall who struggled for years and then took a jump. That's a horse of a different color - he was not expected to struggle as much as he did. His jump was also more suspicious because there isn't an easy explanation like there is for Kepler. I also think it's important to take the person into perspective. Loved me some Hicks but he had difficulty with the emotional side of the game. That's not to blame him - I'm surprised more guys don't have issues with this. They're in their early 20s and they're dealing with pressures and publicity no other person their age deals with. So not blaming him but he had a tendency to magnify the bad and make it worse. I've seen and heard nothing similar about Kepler - scouts and Twins staff have been marveling for years (long before he took his jump) about his poise and his ability to handle the mental things that Hicks had trouble with initially. That's not to say that Kepler may not struggle some and your suggestion that he gets some time in AAA is apt from a "prove it" perspective and from a service time perspective. But I just think it's important to notice that Kepler's jump was expected in a way that Hicks' wasn't and that Kepler's poise differentiates him from the Aaron Hicks Experience.

To be fair, no Major League team does this. It's not a Twins Way thing, it's a baseball thing. That will likely change in the next few years and I wouldn't be completely surprised if the Twins were the team that did it - you need a right hander and left hander with closing experience with the team. There can't be that many teams besides the Twins that have that. We also need to acknowledge that there is something to people having a defined role. We've all worked jobs where there is a comfort knowing what your role is, not being surprised by things. I don't think it needs to be paramount and would love to see the restrictions loosened but it's not totally insane. And again, I could see the Twins being the ones to change it - with a righty and a lefty its not too much of a stretch to say "you two have the 8th and 9th in some order" and have that be defined enough. Molitor seems like a guy who could do that and Jepsen would likely be on board - convincing Perkins would be the key and he is a bit of a whiner but there is a shot.

Yeah, if he hits well, no way that Kepler stays in the minors past June. He'd be the obvious call up if any of the following were injured: Mauer, Park, Sano, Plouffe, Buxton, Rosario . That's basically everywhere but catcher, second and shortstop and doesn't even include that he'd likely replace Arcia as the 4th OF (I'm assuming Buxton starts with the ML squad). I'm hoping for Twins health but it is pretty unlikely all of those guys are totally healthy. That's really why keeping Plouffe is not as big of a deal as out baseball-starved winter obsessing makes it. Plouffe really means that when someone gets hurt it's Kepler stepping in rather than . . . Reynaldo Rodriguez? Maybe ABW? The Twins lineup has remarkable depth this year (second and short are covered by Santana/Polanco while an injury at catcher doesn't mean sub .200 Chris Hermann/Fryer types). That's one of the big strengths for the Twinkies this year.

If Span is really willing to take a 1 year deal (seems farfetched, he's 31 and is going to want to cash in now - I imagine that the delay is teams not wanting to give an extra year that he wants, whether that's a third or a fourth) the only thing that would take him back to MN is nostalgia. The Twins could offer to trade him if they don't have room to start him at some point but no players wants that to be the plan because it makes him less marketable the next offseason (not good enough to finish with the same team) and it takes away his choice of where he's going to play (not to mention all of the having-to-move aspects for a guy who just got married). Seems super unlikely. My guess is that if Span takes a 1 year deal it will be with the Rays. He makes his home there and the Rays need a left-handed bat and Span might be a nice upgrade on Desmond Jennings, who has never turned into the player the Rays hoped he would. Would love it though!

Knock on wood while throwing salt over your shoulder and crossing your toes. How dare you speak such blasphemy?

I also don't think it's wise to say "Because Carlos Gomez turned into an All-Star, therefore Aaron Hicks will as well." As much as you may want to compare the two, they have nothing to do with each other. Being afraid to make a strong move because you think a previous unrelated move went poorly is the height of folly. I use that "you think" very purposefully. Let's stop pretending like Carlos Gomez came back to bite the Twins in the butt - that was a fine deal. His OPS+ for the next two years in Milwaukee was 76 and 82. If you want to broaden this a bit, we'll go with a four year span after the trade, where Gomez's WAR was 13.6 (most due to an insane 8.5 year in 2013 which more and more looks like an outlier). JJ Hardy's WAR over that same four year period was 12.5. The issue was never the Gomez for Hardy trade, that was a fine trade. The Hardy to the Orioles trade is where it went wrong. If the Twins learn anything from the Gomez experiment it shouldn't be "don't trade outfielders from a position of strength to cover a postion of weakness." It should be "Don't get frustrated that Murphy isn't fast and then deal him so you can sign a fast base-stealing Japanese catcher." Hicks is super different than Gomez. Gomez was too aggressive and prone to stupid mistakes but showed flashes of greatness at age 23. At age 25 Hicks still has never shown the ability to hit right handed pitching (70% of ABs are against righties) and has hit lefties well for 6 weeks. That was a fun six weeks but the Twins traded from a position of strength to find a solution to a position of weakness. No matter what Hicks does (though its unlikely he's more than a very good platoon outfielder, it is entirely possible he leans how to hit righties), the Twins will likely be set going forward with Buxton, Rosario, Sano, Kepler and even ABW coming up the pipeline. And just take a look at the free agent catching market for the past three years compared to the free agent corner OF market for the past three years. Even if several of those guys don't pan out and the Twins need to find a replacement, it won't be particularly hard to do. Catchers are impossible to find without settling for mediocrity or paying for Russell Martin's inevitable decline. Buxton's defense plays at the ML level. He should start there and move down if he needs to (at which point someone like Kepler can come up if they deserve it).

I'm not saying AAA doesn't matter at all, just that I don’t think guys development will be blocked by five or six minor league free agents. The difference comes partly from the fact that I don't look at all of those AAAA players as necessarily a good thing – teams facing the Red Wings last year faced guys struggling to hit major league pitching and stalled prospects. Now I get that's just the Twins and I'm nowhere near expert enough to say if we are different than other organizations but I haven’t read anything from the people on this site or baseball writers indicating that Twins are any different – all teams get five or six minor league free agents and stick them in AAA for organizational depth. It just seems like AAA has become a place for lots of MLB teams to stash the minor league free agents and the older prospects that may be fated to be 3rd catchers, utility guys or who have tried the majors and need more seasoning. AA teams are where the impact prospects are and even if the whole batting lineup isn’t amazing, those are the guys you want your up and coming pitchers to face as they develop. Two other things: 1) Last year Kepler, Buxton and Sano all made the jump from AA to the majors. While Buxton did some injury time in AAA later and Kepler was a cup of coffee and may end up in AAA for a few months this year due to crowding/service time, these guys were all judged to not need AAA. And it’s not just last year, Mauer did the same thing a decade ago. If a guy can master AA, AAA seems to be skippable and I haven't heard a ton of evidence that these guys were hurt by not facing AAA pitching. If you want evidence on the pitching side of things, Berrios was primarily in AA all year and when the Twins decided not to bring him up it was because of innings, not because he hadn't seen AAA batters. If he doesn’t make the major league rotation this year it won’t be because he hasn’t faced AAA. So AAA is not necessary to making the jump, indicating that the Twins view the two leagues as relatively equivalent. 2) These minor league free agents won’t all be on the team all year. The Twins exciting relief prospects can start the year in AA and then if they push up to AAA, a lot of those minor league veteran guys can easily be released. But if the AA prospects stall out or the Twins have some pen injuries early in the year, it’s nice to have some options in AAA.

I'm not worried about that. Guys can make the jump from AA to the majors and the difference between the two leagues isn't all that crazy - AAA has more of the AAAA players and guys who are organizational depth while AA often has your up-and-coming arms. Basically, the talent level isn't as big a jump because AAA has a lot of guys whose careers have stagnated while AA tends to have pitchers with velocity who can hit their spots and hitters who go up with a solid plan. The real issue for me would if the backlog builds up and guys are in High A who are ready for AA because that's a huge jump. But I trust the Twins to manage this - they know what their priorities are and I can't remember them blocking young guys up the system by holding onto useless guys in the high levels of the minors.

Maybe I'm missing some joke here and you're going to make fun of me for being square but Joe Mauer? AJ Pierzynski? the vastly underrated Brian Harper? Even Tim Laudner threw up some above average years at the dish. Strangely if you think about the Twins post-Mauer, if you were to pick the Twins best positions throughout the years, it probably goes CF (Puckett, Hunter, Span, Lyman Bostock, Jim Eisenrich) and then C (the aforementioned plus Earl Battey). And it's pretty close there too. You could make an argument for 1B too with Killebrew, Hrbek, Morneau, Dougie. This actually seems like an interesting side topic. Perhaps I'll start it next time I'm bored at work. So next week.

The real thing here too is that we have no idea what the trade deadline will look like. IF the Twins have a log jam at the break (no one gets injured, Park is good, Buxton seizes CF, Plouffe has a good season and Kepler is chomping at the bit to be in the majors), that’s a great problem to have. And if any of those don’t happen (e.g. injuries or Park struggling or Mauer bottoming out) they have a nice insurance policy with Plouffe all year. The Twins also can likely get a similar deal to what they’d get right now at the trade deadline and perhaps something even better – if there’s a contender at the deadline with a hole at 3B or the need for a right handed bat, they will likely be willing to pay more than they are now. Unless the Twins can get a great package for Plouffe, there’s no reason not to keep him. Having too many guys is not the worst problem and there's a solid chance Trevor is just as valuable or even more valuable at the deadline.

Hicks is not a Gold Glove defensive player. He has never won a Gold Glove and would not be considered for it this year. He also has some upside but I would not call it a TON. He has hit for about 2 months at the major league level and struggles mightily against righties (70% of at bats are against righties). He has potential but was by no means an elite prospect. John Ryan Murphy is not a backup catcher. He a young prospect catcher who looks to split time with Suzuki before eventually taking over the job full time. He's not going to be Joe Mauer but most teams don't have that. He seems like he has a decent chance to be an average catcher who is under team control for 6 years and maybe has some upside to be more than that. That's not insignificant. Hold off on saying that Sano can't play OF and handing out grades. The Twins can cover a lot for him with Buxton and Rosario and you never know how a guy will play out there. Cuddy was never amazing but he was smart and had a good enough arm to mitigate some of the range out there. There's just too many unknowns to go around throwing out final judgments. No one knows if Park will translate to MLB (in which case Sano can DH and Arcia/Kepler will in OF), if Sano can play a passable OF (in which case they have a stacked lineup), if everyone will be healthy (right now the Twins can take an injury at 1B, 3B, DH and OF and not miss a beat - that's a nice thing!) or how Molitor will handle days off (there's room to minimize Sano in the OF with regular days off for Park, Plouffe and Mauer). The fact is that Plouffe gets you nothing useful now so you might as well keep him and deal with the nice problem of having a surplus of guys you want to play. Have we all forgotten Jason Tyner? Remember the Tyner! Remember the Tyner!

What he said. Particularly the service-time consideration aspect. Max Kepler is 22 years old, by delaying until May you likely get an extra season of team control at 28-29, in his prime. The only reason to risk that would be if he makes the team as a starting outfielder – the difference between Kepler and Robinson as 4th OF for two months is not even a win. While I enjoy a lot of the author’s material, he’s dead wrong saying that the Twins need to be laser focused on winning in 2016. This is a Twins team set up to compete for 5-7 years, not one set up to compete only in 2016. We are not the Tigers. We are NOT the Tigers. That’s not to say we need to play the rebuilding game – just that we still have to weigh the benefits now versus the costs in the future. Kepler as 4th OF is too little benefit now and too much potential cost later. The same might be true of Berrios in the rotation too.

Especially had to hide when you think about those inevitable times when a few guys are banged up and need a day. It really reverberates down your roster to have a bench guy you don't really want to play. Michael will be fine.

They did trade for a second reliever, Neil Cotts. You may not like that trade but they did get a second guy.

I have a clear understanding of FIP and a working understanding of fWAR and dollar valuations (they’re not very complicated and you come across as really really patronizing BTW) but that’s not what you and I were talking about, that’s what you were talking about with other people. I was talking to you narrowly about the depth of the Twins farm system, other ways to spend that money and the bogus way you were trying to exclude certain players. None of that involved FIP or fWAR so I didn’t engage on that level. Silencing those who disagree with you is the tool of the despot but I’ll bow out. Someday you can have a discussion with yourself and guarantee everyone will agree with you.

This is pretty dubious throughout. Both League and Broxton fit Cameron’s profile of non-closers as both have been setup men shortly before and shortly after signing their deals. Broxton signed a $4 million deal in the offseason of 2011-2012 with the Royals. He closed for them in 2012 and then moved to Cincy at the deadline where he was a setup man who closed four games in mid-September when Chapman was getting some rest. That offseason he signed the deal that Cameron is taking about, a 4 year $30 million deal. He saved no games in 2013 (not sure where you got the Broxton was signed to close thing, the team played with it in spring training but named Chapman closer two weeks before the season started - it was never really in doubt, Chapman said he wanted to close and was resistant to starting) and had seven saves in 2014 while again filling in due to injury. I don’t see how you exclude his contract, which has seen him shift to and from three teams while providing 1 WAR in three years. He was a former closer but has served primarily as a set-up man since the traded deadline before he signed the contract. If he’d been a true closer, he wouldn’t have resigned with the Reds where he clearly was going to have little-to-no chance to close. Brandon League signed a 3 year/$22 million contract in 2013 with the Dodgers. He’d already lost his closer job with the Mariners in 2012 and became closer for the Dodgers after the deadline by default after Jansen had an irregular heartbeat. He quickly lost the job back to Jansen the next year and has been a mediocre setup man ever since (-0.8 WAR so far, missed the entire 2015 season). Another guy it’s hard to call a true closer since he signed his deal with a team that did not offer him the closing job. Cameron is fine to include him. As for Fujikawa, he was being paid $4.5 million a year. That’s not a “gamble”, teams don’t just throw that kind of money at guys they don’t expect to be key members of the bullpen. If you read articles from the time of the signing, his expected role was to set up Marmol, be the 8th inning guy. Ten other teams made runs at Fujikawa, suggesting he was not some guy who could only latch on to a bottom feeder. He was a serious free agent signing who backfired and to suggest otherwise is preposterous. I don’t see how you can in good faith try to mess with the scale on this one by selectively excluding guys. They were signed as setup men, none of them was given a sure-fire closer job.

No one is claiming Cameron is infallible – all anyone is saying is he’s a respected writer for a respected website so his conclusion bears some weight. We can disagree all you want about the exact definition of 0 WAR players but in the end, they’re not the kind of guys you want pitching for your team, certainly not on multiple year contracts. Who cares how high or low the FIP is? All that does is highlight Cameron’s point – bullpen performance has incredible variance and is very difficult to predict making free agent contracts in the pen incredibly risky. I really disagree about the farm system too. Jake Reed, JT Chargois, Alex Meyer and Nick Burdi are all exciting arms entering the upper levels of the Twins farm system. That doesn’t even count guys like Tonkin and Oliveros who should be competing for bullpen jobs this spring. Most of that first list likely won’t be on the opening day roster but they all have the potential to be forcing their way up onto the roster during the season, especially with the way a lot of them have been performing in the AFL. If you sign the 3/15 contracts you want to sign, those guys likely don’t get a shot. Most teams are loathe to cut bait on a struggling guy if he’s signed for the next few years –veteran pitchers with money on the books get a chance to ride things out. I’d hate to see cheap young guys blocked by an aging vet who is underperforming. That’s the beauty of the one-year contracts and the minor league deals for fallen prospects. The Twins can evaluate them in spring training, see who sticks and it’s easy to cut bait if the farm system does well. Why wouldn’t we want to maintain flexibility, especially since there is such high risk with longer contracts for relievers? You make some nice points around this topic but they seem like nitpicking and don’t really address that the Twins are not in a place where they need those arms. With Jepsen, Perkins and perhaps two guys who don’t make the rotation, the Twins really only have 3 spots to fill. They don’t need to remake the entire pen, they just need to retool its back end. They have plenty of interesting internal options and can augment that with some low-risk flexible one-year deals and minor league contracts. A long term deal for a reliever runs a strong risk of being a waste of money that cripples flexibility and targets spending on an inefficient area where the Twins have strong internal candidates.