ThejacKmp

W What else would a DH bring to the table? DHs hit and that's it. A young developing 26 year old switch-hitting power hitter who may have taken a big jump last year (but otherwise is a slightly above average hitter) seems like exactly the guy the Twins should start the season with!

Agreed. Hard to see Palka being an opening day starter for even three years, let alone 5-6 years like you can project for Kiriloff. That K rate is just troublesome and unless he can cut it in AAA, he seems like a 4th OF or platoon DH or 1B at best. That's not a bad thing to get for Chris Hermann, I'm not complaining. But I'd say that Palka is rated a bit too high even.

Agreed. Gimenez was brought in because of JRM, not Garver. I support the FO wanting Garver to play everyday in AAA and work on his receiving a bit more. I'm hopeful that JRM has the edge on Gimenez because he offers upside but I like that they have another option for backup catcher that isn't "Garver sitting on the bench most days". Next year, a Garver/Castro platoon looks really nice with it tilting towards Garver as he gets more comfortable at the MLB level.

As to the organizational weakness at corner infield, it's certainly not a strength but a look at the MLB squad shows you why this isn't particularly dire. Sano is penciled in at 3B (or 1B potentially) for the next half decade. Vargas is a nice switch-hitting prospect. Mauer is an acceptable platoon at 1B for the next two years (and if he prospers as a platoon bat, there's no reason he couldn't come back after this huge contract is done - Mauer for $5-8 million per year would be very palatable in the right platoon/bench bat role). Third base depth is a bit weak but as long as Sano can stick there for two to three seasons without being a total disaster, there should be some nice prospects coming up the ladder (Goodrum, Cabbage or one of the Twins many SS/2B prospects who are blocked). Not to mention that 1B/DH are places that regularly have cheap solutions via free agency, especially as the Twins begin to be a more attractive destination as the young guys start to mature. I'm not worried about the Twins corner IF. It's not the source of strength that the OF or middle infield is (weird to say that latter one) but it's not going to be crippling. The starting pitching on the other hand . . .

You can't judge a baseball player solely on extra-base hits and RBI. Joe Mauer faded due to injury down the stretch but still finished with the second best OBP on the team after Robbie Grossman. Grossman had a career year at the plate, Mauer had a down year. Not crazy to say that Joe Mauer is clearly the best OBP option for the MLB club this year. I know HRs and RBIs are sexy and we get stuck behind outdated concepts of what a first baseman is but if we ignore that drivel, Mauer's OBP is really valuable. It is especially vital for a team like the Twins that has a lot of pop and a lot of high-K guys (e.g. Sano, Buxton, Rosario). Mauer being on base (hopefully in the 2 hole) should lead to a lot of RBIs for guys behind him. Joe's skill set may not be worth $23 million anymore but the Joe-bashing goes way too far. Someone was talking about DFAing him on another thread - that's insane. In spite of injuries, Mauer put up close to an .800 OPS against right handed pitchers last year (70% of pitches thrown are by right handers) so he'll be a vital part of the Twins this year. He'll likely be platooned more than he has before -- and that's a good thing. He'll be less likely to be injured if he's getting regular rest and his stats will jump if he's used mainly against right handed pitching (though unlike many Twins platoon options, he hits lefties well enough that it isn't dire if a team brings in a LH reliever late in a game). I'm excited to see what Mauer can do this year if he's used more judiciously. He'd be one of my top candidates to have a better-than-expected year.

You take that back.

That's the real thing. There are likely 5-10 of teams that would take him in a heartbeat as a platoon at 1B/DH or even as a nice left handed bench bat - but only once he cleared waivers. Then they could sign him for the minimum while the Twins pay the rest.

Problem is he bats left. Ideally, the 4th OF is a right handed guy who can take some at bats against lefties from Rosario and Kepler. Granite's best path to the majors is likely an injury to Rosario or Kepler (or one of them crappin' the bed).

What about option C - Grossman in LF, Vargas at 1B, Sano at DH, Polanco at 3B, Escobar at SS. Not bad to give Sano some days off in the field.

First of all, Palka is no good as a 4th OF because he hits from the left side as well and doesn't project to be a defensive upgrade over Kepler or Rosario. I can see bringing in someone better than Grossman but hitting from the right is a prerequisite. That really sums up why I'm a little bearish on Palka. Unless he finds room at DH/1B or Rosario really craps the bed, it's hard to see a role for him going forward. Unfortunately, Granite is also left-handed and isn't ideal for that 4th OF role. His splits aren't terrible (Palka's aren't either BTW) and his defense is better than Palka's but it still isn't a great fit. That's why Travis Harrison is a guy I'm excited to see in AAA this year. He mashes left handed pitching and has the added bonus of being a potential backup option at 3B (not someone you'd want to depend on but he's played it in the minors and that positional flexibility could come in handy.) If I had to bet money, I'd bet on Harrison being your 4th OF to begin the 2018 season. As for the age thing, three points: 1) I think that age thing speaks more to the quality of prospects the Twins MLB outfielders were. Kepler and Buxton came in young and moved up relatively quickly while Rosario was a really fast riser. The story is "The Twins MLB OF is super young", not "The Twins AA and AAA OFs are too old." 2.) Shuck and Strausborger are AAAA filler - 4th OF subs if Grossman went down and you didn't want a real prospect to come up and sit on the bench. They don't really count. If you just look at prospects - Palka, Harrison and Granite - you get appropriately aged guys. They're all 24 and are over a year younger than the average player at their level. 3.) Same thing in Chattanooga. There are two organization filler project types and two real prospects. The prospects are right around the right age for their level (though neither of them are very exciting to me). Non-story in my eyes.

Wait, is there a new president?

I also think the Twins can use him in a lineup more effectively. If he's batting later in the lineup (6th or 7th) he'll have guys on base more often. He'll get better pitches and that aggressiveness can be an asset. Really excited for the Twins lineup this year - there will be no dead innings.

I'm also not as worried about Rosario in the outfield. I know he makes some boneheaded plays out there but he also makes excellent plays. He's young and should cut down on the boneheaded with good coaching. I think we also forget that he played 2B for big chunks of his relatively short minor league career. He's going to get better as he settles in more in the OF. Very excited to see a Twins OF of Buxton, Kepler and Rosario. That's going to help Twins pitchers a lot.

My big thing is wanting to see more of a platoon on the major league level than a starter-backup relationship. Castro has no business starting against most lefties - I'd like to see JRM playing those days (and I'd like to see Garver in AAA so he can get a ton of playing time).

I think it's a different thing for the playoffs and the regular season. The Native Americans may have been thinking that since they have weak hitting catchers they might want three so they could pinch hit twice during an extra inning game. That's a luxury they had because the playoffs requires less starting pitching. Hard to see that being a focus during the regular season for a team that isn't expected to compete.

The only ones that worry me are the pitching ones. The Twins don't need to have big position player prospects in the minors right now - the guys who will determine the next 5-7 years of Twins hitting are already in the majors. The Twins have lots of nice position player talents to fill in any gaps and provide depth. I do worry about the lack of ace-upside pitching. It's why that Dozier trade was a good turn-down for the Twins. JDL wasn't really a strong likelihood for a #1. Will the Twins maybe regret not dealing Doze if he swoons beginning of the year? Yeah, maybe. But the best path to a #1 comes from the draft (years away) or trading Dozier so holding out was smart.

Nice work. And a rather large oversight by the Twins. It seems like teams would be more wary of this, especially with players who are kind of middling prospects who might be up and down. (To argue against myself though, I guess you also have to ask how often this happens. It takes a pretty big confluence of factors to make something like this happen). Not the worst thing for Polanco to be guaranteed a roster spot. I'm not sure that AAA would do him much good. And for a Twins team that would see .500 as a real nice year, maybe a half year playing SS 3-4 times a week and other IF spots a few days a week isn't the worst thing in the world (in spite of his likely subpar play at short).

Agreed mostly. I don't want the Twins to do something just to maybe have a guy. It would have to be a guy who just doesn't have a market for a full year deal but who you can reasonably see a Nunez half-year from. Napoli actually might fit that build - he's only two years removed from a string of 120 OPS+ years and in 2015 he had a nice 35 game stretch with Texas where he put up a 143 OPS+. Plus I get the sense he is viewed as a Proven Leader (I think that's overrated but baseball doesn't) and a Veteran Postseason Bat (even though his 2015 and 2016 postseasons were awful). He's the kind of bench bat/platoon partner GMs love to add for the stretch.

I'm not saying Napoli is necessarily the guy - though he might be, teams do make moves at deadlines for well-liked veterans to play a bench role. Jeff Francouer made a career out of that. Napoli is a guy who can play 1B, which should be a prerequisite for any DH signing (and a guy who can play corner OF would of course be even better). I'm not saying the Twins are going to get an elite prospect for a Napoli-type 1B/DH but they could get a nice promising relief arm or a young A ball prospect. That's worth keeping one of Park or Vargas in the minors for a 1/2 year. It would be one thing if Park or Vargas were both legitimate awesome prospects but neither of them has really forced the Twins' hand. I'd be comfortable seeing what they're made of this year if no one interesting opens up for the Twins at DH on a 1 year deal but neither is such a great player that the Twins should be standing pat. Important to note that you're also only talking about one of them being in the minors. Spring training would be a battle between Vargas and Park for a bench/platoon spot at 1B/DH. That might not be the worst thing - I can see one of them having a nice year but the odds of both of them is perhaps a bit too unlikely to have it be the only plan.

Buxton should be your leadoff hitter. Hopefully by the end of 2017 we're having fights about whether it's better to have your most dynamic batter in the leadoff position or farther down in the lineup where he can hit when guys are on base. That's a good argument to have. My hope for a Twins lineup June 1, assuming no additions to the squad: VS RIGHTIES CF Buxton R 1B Mauer L 2B Dozier R 3B Sano R DH Vargas S RF Kepler L LF Rosario L C Castro L SS Polanco S* VS LEFTIES CF Buxton R SS Polanco S* 2B Dozier R 3B Sano R DH Vargas S LF Grossman S 1B Park R C Murphy R LF Rosario/Kepler L That's not a bad lineup either way you look at it and either way you have a nice bench: on RH starter days you have Park and Grossman to PH if teams bring in lefty relievers late in games and on LH starter days you'll have Mauer** and Kepler/Rosario to do the same. The Twins may have no pitching but the hitting half of games should be fun to watch. * Let's not turn this into a "Is Polanco at shortstop a good idea" discussion. That's been done elsewhere. I get every argument against it but we're building a lineup here and I'm going off a "Dozier wasn't traded and Polanco should play everyday" rationale. It won't be pretty in the field I'm sure. ** It would be great to see Mauer get a healthy number of at bats in the 9th inning of close games against closers and set up men (most are RH and the Twins lineup against LH starters has lots of guys you'd be pinch hitting for) and add to his walk-off total. Very ironic if in the twilight of his career Mauer became Mr. Clutch, something fans have held against him for years. :-P

I think the reason not to would be to consider the trade deadline. You invest half a year in a guy you plan to flip at the deadline. During that time Vargas and Park are in AAA working on their game and they're up for the second half of the season. If it's the right guy and a 1 year deal, the Twins should definitely take a shot on this - it's what good rebuilding teams do.

Kennys Vargas does have a 4th option year. The Twins got a fourth option year for Vargas. "Major League Baseball grants a fourth option to teams when a player has five or fewer professional seasons under his belt but already has burned through three optional assignments." These professional seasons often don't include years spent in short-season ball because the player isn't on an active roster for more than 90 days. Vargas started playing full-season ball in 2012 so this is his 5th professional season and he's been in the majors three different years. I imagine the rule is designed to give teams the ability to bring a young guy up quickly for a taste or to cover a short absence without worrying about losing an option that might be valuable later. Jorge Polanco will likely have similar eligibility should he need it. For Vargas, this makes it less likely he'll make the majors since the Twins can stash him in AAA if they want. It might not be the worst idea to make him earn MLB time since his admittedly great success was in a short sample last season. I'm not as sold on Morneau being the reason for this - I'd like a guy who might make a better trade chip than Morneau, who seems likely to bring back a C level prospect at best. SOURCES: http://www.twincities.com/2016/11/17/minnesota-twins-joe-mauer-derek-falvey-share-a-shapiro-connection/ http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/major-league-players-who-qualify-for-a-fourth-option-in-2013/#VbhE2QelkCYjuEZT.97

Dozier does come with another year of control (and the ability to negotiate an extension for whatever that is worth) so he's not a rental. I think we can all look back and see deadline deals that involved significant pieces going out. There are a lot of teams with pressure on the GM - The Dodgers and Nats are going to be gunning for it, the Blue Jays and Rangers may be in the same boat. There's luck involved in any trade deadline thing but if Dozier hits, teams should be looking for a way to make him work, not trying to plug an existing hole. That's kind of my point.

Again, that's why they play the games. On paper the 2015 Twins don't belong anywhere near a playoff race - but there they were. I don't think the 2017 Twins are going to the World Series but I also think saying, "The Twins won't be a contender in 2017" is a bit premature. It takes a lot but it's not that hard to see: 1) The Twins offense is a legit top 5 offense - Dozier approximates 2015, Buxton and Sano take the jump to All-Stars, Vargas, Kepler and Rosario are above average for their positions and the rest of the Twins lineup finds ways to contribute. Maybe even a bit of a bounce back year for Mauer as he settles into a platoon? 2) Bullpen performance is extremely variable and the Twins hit on a good year. They certainly have the talent to do that - this might be the most doable thing for a good 2017. Some of the young arms impress in spring training and carry it into the regular season. The Twins lack the elite relievers but have a lot of quality depth and some nice reinforcements in the minors. 3) The least likely - the rotation holds it's own. Santana is a reasonable guy at the top of the rotation, Berrios harnesses his potential and is an okay #2 starter and between Hughes, May, Santiago and Gibson the Twins have a lot of guys who aren't spectacular but keep them in games. Maybe even a little Gonsalves later in the season ala 2015 Duffey. There's no reason the 2017 Twins rotation can't outperform 2015 (that's not asking much, that rotation was garbage). That's a team that could very well compete for the Wild Card. I didn't make anyone a superstar or anything, I just took a best case scenario. The Twins need a lot of things to break their way so it's not super likely but I just think assuming the Twins will suck in 2017 is pretty pessimistic and ignores the potential upside. There's a team every year that no one really expects much from that makes a run for the Wild Card. That's why they play the games.

Or the Twins are a contender and don't deal Dozier. Also a legit possibility. This is why they play the games.