ThejacKmp

I assume that this is to build fan pressure. In todays baseball, the fanbase can influence things. I don't see how this hurts the twins in this process or for their long-term reputation.

Anyone know why Vargas was given a 4th option year? Seems unfair to him on some levels.

The numbers don’t fit your point. You’ve taken Rosario’s entire MILB career, which involves two levels Wade hasn’t reached. You’ve also supposed they’re both going to hit .250 in the majors when Rosario has had a better average throughout the minors and has hit .268 through two MLB seasons. LaMonte Wade’s A and A+ slashes .280/.410/.396/.806 (207 AB) .318/.386/.518/.904 (110 AB) Eddie Rosario’s: .296/.345/.490/.835 (392 AB) .325/.377/.498/.875 (237 AB) Those guys are pretty similar in OPS through the only levels they’ve both done so far. Therein lies the rub – Lamonte Wade has not reached the upper levels of the minors or the majors so it’s easier to get excited about him, we haven’t seen the warts. Rosario was pretty decent at keeping K numbers down in the low minors but starting in AA, those strikeouts started to creep higher and the walks stagnated. Wade will also likely start to walk less and strike out more. Will he always have a higher OBP than Rosario? Likely. But he’s at a deficit when it comes to power potential and average so that’s more of a wash. I think it’s also important to look at those ABs. Wade’s A+ numbers are based on 110 at-bats – that’s a very small sample size and also represents a big jump in slugging (lots of doubles) that may not be sustainable. He’d have to keep up the slugging this year to even keep pace with Rosario. It also doesn’t take age into effect. Rosario is only 27 months older than Wade but is entering his third significant major league year while Wade is still in high A ball. People forget this in the woes about the very real weaknesses of Rosario’s game but he’s still absurdly young. He’s not likely to walk more but it’s conceivable that he’ll learn to control the strike zone better and put more balls in play. He’ll also likely gain some strength so some 20+ HR years are also a very real possibility. That’s really another thing about this 2020 team – we look at it and think “Ugh, Rosario still starting?” but forget that this will be a Rosario in his prime age 28 year and who is still two years removed from free agency. That should be a wildly different Rosario than the one we love and are frustrated by today. Rosario may not be a perennial All-Star but he’s got a lot of room to grow into a really nice piece for the Twins. Wade may end up that too but to me he seems more like a nice 4th OF type.

It kind of worked though

I'm not sure that Lamonte Wade will ever hit enough to be a great corner OF prospect - the difference between Wade and Rosario doesn't seem like much. Rosario needs to cut down on some dumb mistakes but those should improve with time (he did spend much of the minors at 2B) and he has the skills to be as elite of a defensive corner OF as Wade while being average with the bat. To me they're both averageish corner OFers (albeit more value with glove than bat) and that's why our upside sits with Kirilloff or a free agent acquisition. Vielma has already taken some big strides with the bat in the minors. He has improved with the bat from rookie to A, from A to A+ and from A+ to AA. He's going to need a few more years in the minors to work on things but if he could make it to a .700 OPS, he'd be a great major league SS and might move Gordon off to 2B or 3B. He's never had an OPS above .653 in the U.S. but he is only 22 and has played below his level by 1.5 to 2 years his whole career. He should get a bit bigger and develop a little more doubles power (though he's not likely to ever have HR power). If he can continue controlling the strike zone reasonably well and hit .250 to .260 in the majors, he'll have a good shot at that .700 OPS. And agreed, he'd be a great utility option already, that glove is supposed to be major league ready.

Are they resigning Castro? He's done after 2019 season. I'd like to think they'll have an internal backup catcher by then. As for moving guys aggressively, this does include three full seasons in between (2017, 2018 and 2019). Kiriloff for instance, should be in A ball this year and would then just need to do a level a year. That may be a big jump but he's a first round pick so if we're being optimistic-but-realistic, it's not crazy to think he'd be breaking into the bigs in 2020. Diaz, Arraez and Blankenhorn would also all be in a position to be ready for the bigs - Arraez and Blankenhorn will be in high A ball to start 2017. I have Diaz in AAA in 2020 (he's moved slower) but he'll be in low A to being the year so he also could be ready by 2020 as well. Rortverdt may be the biggest stretch since he's a catcher and could start the year in Rookie Ball.

Yeah but over the seven years none of that has turned out or lead to good teams. The 2020 team isn't filled with nine all-stars but that's a given, they're not the 27 Yankees. Sano/Buxton have the talent to be the best core since Mauer and Morneau and the guys around them seem way more solid than the rest of the lineup around M&M in the early 2000s. Kepler has All-Star upside and all of the rest of the guys have the potential to be above average major leaguers. There's not an easy out in that lineup. We don't need to have strength everywhere, we just need to not have gaping holes. I think we'll be okay.* * Pitching is another matter entirely, I have some hopes but that's what worries me, not the Twins hitting.

I see where you come from but I think that's more the authors being afraid to do some optimistic-but-realistic projecting. When you're projecting 3 years down the road and you pick five guys in the MLB right now and 2 guys in AAA who should get MLB time this year, I think you've taken the easy route. They ignored a bunch of guys who might get you more excited than Rosario and they didn’t speak to depth. To whit: - Alex Kirilloff is young but MLB's prospect lists indicate that his ETA is 2020. He could be a nice corner OF who might be more exciting than Rosario. Ditto for guys like Lamonte Wade, Travis Harrison, Trey Cabbage or another converted corner IF. - Ben Rortvedt hasn't shown as much at the plate in a short sample but is a high draft pick with lots of projectable tools. He's also listed with a 2020 ETA. It’d be nice to have him listed alongside Mitch Garver to show some depth. - 2B/SS has other options as well. Engelb Vielma is a defensive wiz who only needs to hit .275 to be extremely valuable. He’s only 22 and is already in AA – at the very least he should be the best Twins utility IF in a long time. (Having an elite defensive substitute late in games makes every reliever better – Gordon at 2B and Vielma at SS would help close out games.) Jermaine Palacios is more of a project but he’s also a guy who should be in the upper minors in three years and could play SS or move to 2B/3b. - DH also has Vargas as someone mentioned earlier but Lewin Diaz is a fun name too. Tons of power from the left side of the plate and thus far he’s had a decent BB to K rate for a young power hitter. His ETA is 2019 so that’s projectable for 2020. What if you tweaked this and did a 13 person Twins position player roster (they’ll be at the 26 man roster in 2020) that was as follows? C – Garver, Rortvedt IF – Arraez, Gordon, Sano, Vielma, Polanco, Vargas OF – Buxton, Kepler, Kirilloff, Rosario, Palka That doesn’t include Blankenhorn or Diaz (I chose Vielma over Blankenhorn because I imagine the Twins would want Blankenhorn to play every day while Vielma is a better late-inning sub; I also think Diaz will take a little bit longer to develop so let’s put him in AAA). This also doesn’t include any free agent signings the Twins might make in the meantime (I think likely in OF since the Kirilloff/Rosario/Palka group seems the weak spot of this roster – though another option is to get Blankenhorn time in the OF if he keeps hitting and the Twins have a glut of middle infield depth.) It would yield a lineup something like: 2B Arraez ( L ) CF Buxton ( R ) RF Kepler ( L ) 1B Sano ( R ) DH Vargas ( S ) C Garver ( R ) LF Kirilloff ( L ) 3B Polanco ( S ) SS Gordon ( L ) That’s something I get very excited about. Especially with a bench that’s Vielma (utility), Rosario (4th OF/emergency IF), Rortvedt (backup C) and Palka (bench pop) with Blankenhorn and Diaz lurking in AAA. That’s a pretty good amount of depth and in Sano, Kepler and Buxton some All-Star (or MVP) type upside. More excited now?

Seems strange to me to have Blankenhorn at 2B and Polanco at 3B when each of them has spent more time at the other position. The only way I'd go Polanco at 3B was if I was on the Arraez train (which I am). Then Polanco makes sense.

Kind of agree. I think Gibson's greatest defenders who see a return to glory and #2 potential are ignoring his subpar K rate and are getting way too excited about his groundball rate. That said, the people who want to just throw Gibson away are equally insane. He's a young cheap pitcher who doesn't fit the mold of an ace but still has the potential to be a very useful middle-of-the-rotation starter. Those cost money in free agency. He should get a chance to start this year and may prove a nice chip at the deadline or in the offseason (he's not changing a playoff race but there are always teams looking for someone to fill a rotation spot down the stretch). The Twins don't have enough young guys who deserve a spot in the MLB rotation that they can trade Gibson at a low point in value (Berrios is the only one who deserves a shot IMO, Mejia/May/Duffey can compete for that 5th spot and will be used throughout the year regardless).

To play devil advocate: isn't this team better than 2015's playoff contender? I'd argue the rotation (while not good) is likely better than 2015, when Gibson, Pelfrey, Hughes, Milone, 1/2 season of Santana, May, Duffey and Nolasco started multiple games. I think we'd all rather see Berrios, Santiago, Mejia and maybe Gonsalves than Pelfrey, Milone and Nolasco. Again, not a strength but the rotation has a good chance to be better than 2015. The lineup (with or without Dozier) should be pretty good too. There's a lot of young talent that could take a step up - Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Rosario, Vargas, Polanco, JRM, Garver etc. They're going to strike-out a lot but there's a lot of pop and potential there. 2015 had a lot of guys with OPS+ a few points either side of 100 and then Miguel Sano carrying a team. This 2017 lineup is much more balanced and looks potentially dangerous 1-9, especially if Dozier doesn't go anywhere. The bullpen is a big question mark but most bullpens are. The Twins at least have a bunch of young power arms so what they lack in proven veterans they can hopefully make up in depth. Listen, I'm not betting my house on the Twins being a contender in 2017 (though I did drop $20 on them winning the World Series because, hey, why not). But I will say that this team on paper looks better than 2015 and if things break right could do so again. Very rarely do I think a baseball team comes into a season with no chance and the 2017 Twins don't fit that definition.

Woah, that's a heck of a claim. Is there any basis for that?

That's like saying that an aspiring lawyer could have chosen to not take the bar and become a food delivery guy - it's true, but it's not what he or she spent most of their life preparing for so its not much of an option. ABWIII spent his whole life pursuing a baseball career and was forced to become an indentured servant to a Twins team that can basically do whatever it wants with him. I disagree that baseball is as capitalistic as it could be - it has an antitrust exemption for a reason. I think the issue is your definition of capitalism. Capitalism is based on competition and the ability for new businesses to form to fill in for market inefficiencies. That isn't baseball. Baseball is a cartel and cartels are not real capitalism. MLB has consistently used the legal system to fend off any competitors and even appointed a judge (Kenesaw Mountain Landis) as its first commissioner to help this effort. If baseball were as capitalistic as it could be while still being a sport, it would look like soccer in Europe. Anyone can form a soccer team and build it up to compete at the highest levels - that's where most of the biggest clubs began. The odds are stacked against you but there's free flow into the system.

Yeah, I can see that argument - I was dreading the Twins would go after Wieters as a big splash move. Wieters is the top of the free agent class though - he's going to get at least 4 years and more money per year/overall than anyone else.

Yeah, actually the thing that I like least about the Castro signing (and I like it obviously) is that it does put a bit of a roadblock up for Garver. That's not the worst thing - he won't be rushed to the majors (he went from "you're up in June because JRM can't hit!" to "Hey, outside of injury we're going to get you up in September unless you force our hand"). So it might be the best thing for his defensive development but as a fan, I was hoping he'd be up in June just to see what he could do. He really had a great 2016. In a best-reasonable-case scenario, the Twins start 2018 with Garver as the clear starter providing .800 OPS upside and Castro providing a solid veteran backup who can hit tough righties. And maybe JRM is a third catcher/bench bat option as rosters move to 26 players. All for under $10 million.

I mean Wieters is the top player at catcher. And Ramos is likely second depending on where you sit as far as waiting for a C to be healthy. But Castro was the top of the second tier of catchers, which is where the Twins should be shopping.

Absurd is a huge overreaction. It's not unusual for a new GM to keep the prior manager for the first year. It keeps there from being a huge upheaval, provides him with someone who already knows the lay of the locker room and gives him a chance to evaluate the prior manager on the job. If things don't work out after the first year, the GM can then hire the guy he wants at a time where he doesn't have the distraction of trying to absorb all the information about the organization. I think it was a very strong move to keep Molitor around for next year and I imagine Falvey/Levine didn't give it a second thought. I also don't agree that Paul Molitor is going to be hard for the GM to control. He knows that without the GM's support, any bad start next year could cost him his job. And it's not like Paul Molitor is a veteran manager who has earned the right to do things his way - he's been on the job two years and should be pretty amenable to trying things a new way. He was amenable to shifts, has used some platoons in the past and is certainly not an old school Gardenhire acolyte. No reason to freak out about the manager this offseason. Next year maybe.

There's a new boss in town and he likes platooning, Molitor is going to have to adjust. If I get a new boss at work and he really likes something done a certain way, that's the way it gets done.

JRM had a disastrous year last year but even with that he has put up a .691 OPS against left-handed pitching for his career. The average OPS for a catcher in 2016 was .704 (.682 in the AL) so even with a terrible year skewing his OPS down, JRM is pretty close to an average hitter against lefties - and there's reason to hope last year was a nadir. More promisingly, Garver had a .802 OPS against lefties in AA and AA last year and .733 OPS against lefties in A+ and Fall League in 2015. Those numbers may not extrapolate to the pros but he seems a good bet to be at least average against lefties. Obviously neither of these guys is proven but they both have the potential to be solid platoon-mates with Castro. It's also important to realize that platoon doesn't mean a 50-50 split. 70% of at bats will come against righties, who Castro had a .757 OPS against last year. We're talking about some uncertainty (but promise) on the smaller side of the platoon. I think the Twins are in a good position for catcher for next year. They found a nice solution for only $8 million.

I agree that anyone saying, "This is the most amazing signing ever!" has fallen a bit too hard for baseball's latest craze, pitch framing. (It's important but we're probably overstating its value due to its newness - recency bias!) But to say that this isn't a strong signing is pretty shortsighted. The Twins were going to look to bring someone in behind the plate because their current options did not provide a reasonable expectation of competency. Looking at the free agent market, they had three options: (1) Go the Wieters (and maybe Ramos?) route and spend large amounts and commit to 5 years on a premier guy heading into his 30s. (2) Go the cheapskate route and sign the next Kurt Suzuki placeholder for a 1 or 2 year deal. (3) Find something in the middle that doesn't commit you at C but provides a reasonable option. The strong possibility of Wieters not finishing the contract behind the plate makes #1 unpalatable as it would interfere with Twins prospects who are already creating a logjam at 1B/DH. We've all seen #2 and while it doesn't cripple the team, it also doesn't help it - the old band-aid on a bullet wound analogy. #3 is clearly the best option. Castro is very much #3. $8 million seems like a lot but it's not that crazy in today's baseball and it's money the Twins can afford to spend. Castro bats LH and thus provides a nice platoon partner for both Garver and JRM. He put up a very respectable .757 OPS against right handers and provides some nice pop from behind the plate. It's a strong signing. Not a home run signing but that option likely didn't exist this offseason (or almost any offseason when it comes to catching). The Twins found someone who can stabilize catcher in 2017 and help their young pitching. The fact that he also provides a nice platoon backup at a reasonable cost should JRM or Garver take a step forward this year is icing on the cake.

1.) No way the White Sox are going to trade Sale in division. Just not happening. 2.) Getting Chris Sale is not "strong". Depends what you give up. I think the price is going to be too much for me. Chris Sale doesn't make this a good team - developing young controllable pitching (perhaps obtained by trading Dozier) will.

It wasn't really his choice. The Twins drafted him and his choices were to play for the Twins or to not play baseball in the minor leagues that year. Guys drafted out of high school have more of a choice as they can always go to college. A guy like Walker, a college junior when he was drafted, has much less choice. If he goes back for his senior year, he loses all leverage; unless he has a fantastic senior year he's going to have to take whatever offer he's given (or hope he doesn't stagnate taking a year off and going back into the draft). This is veering way off topic but this draft process is one of the reasons my normally moderate political sensibility is all for the nationalization of baseball. Let's stop pretending this is a capitalistic business - baseball is a cartel that cuts off competition and achieves a monopoly by avoiding anti-trust laws. It treats it's employees as inhumanly as possible (even the highly-paid stars only got to this point by defeating collusion and other robber baron tactics - and the owners won't even put Marvin Miller in the Hall of Fame). We should nationalize baseball (paying the owners market value) and then cities/states should take over the teams they hold. I'd be much more willing to build the Twins a stadium if taxpayers would gain the profits it enables. Also, imagine how awesome it would be if GM was a locally elected position - Terry Ryan would've had to be public with their plan. Again, sorry to veer this off topic but the minor league system just makes me so upset.

If we moved to this system, perhaps more teams would leave a 40 man spot open. A guy like walker might go through ten franchises and then have a real choice.

I disagree and think this is perhaps the crux of it. It sometimes does matter which organization Walker might get stuck in - there might be an easier path back to the 40 man and MLB in one over the other or a hitting coach Walker thinks might make a difference or a AAA location closer to family. If we want to do this fairly (I know, I know, not MLB's motivation but whatever) we should let Walker decide. If the Twins drop him and the Brewers claim him to their 40 and then drop him from it with no one else claiming him, he gets to choose which organization to join. And if the Reds picked him up and dropped him too and then no one else claimed him, he'd be able to choose from all three organizations. I'm all in favor of anything that gives MILB players some small semblance of a choice.

You make interesting points overall but I loathe the "a few less X means that difference is negligible" argument when people make it. It's true - but so is the fact that the difference could have been 10% of the couple of stolen bases went the other way. We can't erase statistics without acknowledging they could be wrong the other way. Also, I have a different interpretation of your PB and WP stats. I don't think we should blame catchers for wild pitches - they are pitches a catcher is not supposed to get. I do think they provide an insight into how wild a pitching staff is - if a catcher has a lot of wild pitches, it likely means he's getting more balls that are tough to handle. This may also help explain some of the discrepancy in passed balls - it seems reasonable to assume that a catcher under duress trying to block wild pitches would be more prone to making some mistakes of his own. His pitchers have wilder stuff and it's harder for him to anticipate where the ball will be. Not sure that's right but I think it's an argument that we should take a moment to think about what stats might mean before using them for a narrow purpose.