ThejacKmp

One issue might be if the Giants continue to compete (they're 19-17) and thus aren't selling. However, it's hard to see that continuing with Cueto out for 8-10 weeks and Baumgardner at least a month away from coming back. The NL West looks pretty competitive with the Dodgers bound to bounce back and the Rockies and D-Backs off to hot starts. I'm definitely checking to see if the Giants lose each day. There isn't another great option as a RH OF (lots of LH ones) so it'd be nice if McCutchen was an option (and if other contenders didn't need the same thing).

I was thinking about the trade deadline today. If the Twins are still in it after the All-Star Break and don't have any huge injuries (knock on wood), they're a pretty solid team. It’s hard to see where they’d need massive upgrades. • The starting rotation almost has too many options so outside of an ace, it makes little sense to get a pitcher. Even then, not sure there’s going to be a starting pitcher available who moves the dial that much. • The bullpen has struggled at times but is deep with a lot of options in the high minors. You could make a move but the market on elite bullpen arms is always high and I’m not sure the Twins will have a need that excuses the cost. • The starting lineup looks set. Escobar papers over any infield issues and the starting outfield is strong. And with Polanco coming back in the second half (though not the playoffs), SS seems like somewhere the Twins can hold off on an upgrade. The Twins biggest targets might be more cosmetic and involve the bench. Assuming Castro isn’t gone for long, catcher is set. Infield seems good too with Adrianza and Escobar (elephant in the room about who goes when Polanco comes back). The big hole for the Twins is a RH 4th outfielder who can soak up some DH at-bats. Rosario and Kepler have hit lefties well but it’d be nice to not be trotting out Grossman so regularly against LH starters. Ryan Lamarre has been a nice story but there’s room for improving the outfield depth on the MLB roster – Grossman can become a 25th man as a switch-hitting bench bat rather than an often-overmatched 4th OF. The Twins will have some options to upgrade this spot but I’m hoping that Andrew McCutchen will be available and willing to come play a more bit role for a contending team. That last part is no small matter but the Giants have lost Madison and Cueto and look like a team that could plummet down the standings. McCutchen might be interested in tasting the playoffs again? He would be an ideal fit. He has a career .963 OPS vs. LHP (and 1.131 OPS last year so that's not weighted by early performance). That would be solid in the Twins lineup and would also give them that big bench bat they're looking for when teams bring in left-handed relievers late (McCutchen has a higher OPS vs. LH relievers than LH starters). He’s also a capable corner OF even if he’s no longer a CF. The cost would likely not be prohibitive. McCutchen is in the last year of his deal and has struggled at times this year. He fetched almost nothing this offseason – middling RH reliever Kyle Crick and Bryan Reynolds, a 2016 2nd round pick OF who hasn’t look special thus far and profiles as a 4th OF or defensive centerfielder. If the Twins are willing to eat $6-8 million in salary, I think they could get McCutchen for someone like 2017 5th round pick Andrew Bechtold. And even that might be too high - I was siding on giving up too much instead of an unrealistic pipedream. Thoughts on this? I’d feel a lot more comfortable if our lineup against LHP was something like: 1B Mauer ( L ) 2B Dozier ( R ) DH Sano ( R ) RF McCutchen ( R ) LF Rosario/Kepler ( L ) CF Buxton ( R ) 3B Escobar ( S ) C Garver ( R ) SS Polanco/Adrianza ( S ) You could even give Joe a day off and slot Grossman in as DH with Sano playing 1B. Your bench against lefties would be Morrison, Rosario/Kepler, Grossman/Mauer and Castro. That’s not too shabby.

I'd like to see Gonsalves get a few more starts in AAA but yeah, he's looking better. What about a 6 man rotation?

This is a fantastic idea. Even if his bat slows down, Escobar doesn't need to hit as much at 2B as at 3B. And that versatility is nice if the Twins have the excellent problem of other guys knocking on the door (Blankenhorn, Javier, etc.) and run out of room for him. We've seen with Eduardo Nunez that it's not hard to trade a guy who can play all over the place, especially to NL teams. I wonder what that kind of an extension would cost for Escobar? I'd imagine something like 4 years $32 - $36 million?

Yeah, quality starts is a bad stat but there isn't something better to track it. I've always thought they could make QS better by giving you one point for a 6 inning QS, 2 for a 7 inning QS, 3 for an 8 inning etc. Sucks to lose the QS because your guy gives up two runs in the 8th but if they do, you still get credit for the 7 inning QS. Also makes a shutout worth an appropriate amount because as is, Paxton would get the same point as Odorizzi would have if he went one more inning yesterday. That seems unfair.

Agreed. Though I also think that Lynn has more value than you'd think (capped at maybe a lottery ticket prospect). He's been bad but teams know he's not that bad, he has a track record. And he costs less and less (though of course you get less and less) as time goes on. Just because the Twins won at $12 million doesn't mean other teams weren't in for less (or that Lynn didn't choose the Twins over an equal offer due to playoff potential, reputation, rotation role, Midwest love etc.) I don't think it's a desperate need thing either. Lance Lynn is a solid MLB starter, terrible Twins start not included. In spring training, everyone has their own plans. By the end of May, some of those plans have fallen through. Lynn would be a safe low ceiling, low floor move for a lot of teams with a spot to fill in the rotation.

I don't know, I think I might have grabbed him. The Twins hit enough that he'll get wins (unless your league is progressive enough to get rid of wins) and those K numbers are pretty useful. He's at least a nice streaming option in two start weeks.

You're correct that you won't get a quality shortstop for him but it's erroneous to think he'd make it through waivers. Teams have injuries to starters, teams have young guys who need more seasoning, teams are suddenly competitive . . . there are openings. The Giants would take him in a heartbeat with Cueto and Madison down already. I think the big point is that Lance Lynn will almost certainly improve. He's young enough that it's unlikely the wheels fell off and he has a consistent track record. I know nothing about baseball but maybe starting spring training late hurt him. Give him May and if he hasn't turned it around, then we know who Ervin replaces.

Did you pick him up?

This second wave of Twins prospects is going to be so pivotal for the Twins. If they can add a new wave as Buxton, Rosario etc. enter the final stage of their career, that could put the Twins over the top. Really excited.

You forgot the Thorpedo in the Top 20.

But it's also about how you are likely to help the team. The Twins have a ton of minor league depth that would appear to be above him on the list: Mejia, Santana, Gonsalves, Jorge, May etc. He seems unlikely to crack the Twins as anything other than an emergency starter. On the other hand, a third left handed reliever has real value. The Twins don't have Duke past this year either. Knowing that Enns can fill the #2 or #3 lefty reliever void likely has significantly more value than having an 11th starter.

Not arguing that they weren't hits. Arguing that those hits are not indication that similar outcomes will follow. It seems to me you are ignoring/minimalizing/discounting the larger context. Not all hits are created equal. With you on often but I think real-a-tor is kind of funny in a Modern Family kind of way. Woke and narrative aren't bad and have real meaning but I get you on authentic.

I didn't reply on this but I thought the Hughes extension was a good idea then and I don't feel differently now. Sometimes the thought process is okay but it doesn't work out. We can't be results driven. First point: Phil Hughes has not been the reason the Twins have not been great. His salary hasn't been so onerous that the team was screwed and its not like ownership would've spent that money on some ace pitcher. Secondly, at the time it made sense. Phil Hughes looked like a potential ace pitcher. The Twins had no reasonable internal ace pitchers in the high minors. They weren't a team that was going to spend huge money on the elite free agent (and as we saw with Darvish, even being willing to do that doesn't get you results if you're in an smaller market). So your choices were to find the next Arietta (easier said than done) or take a reasonable gamble that Phil Hughes had turned a corner. I'm not going to fault them for a reasonable gamble on locking up an ace for five years for very little money. Hughes didn't have huge injury risk written on him, he had a good pedigree, he had plus stuff, he had success as a reliever and a starter (at the time I argued that even if he turned out to not be a great starter, he was still an elite reliever). Yeah you ripped up a great deal and made a longer, less advantageous deal but the money wasn't that crazy and the upside was both unique and real. Sometimes bad things happen but that doesn't mean the process was wrong.

Ugh, so sick of this fake news and alternative facts B.S. It's easily the most annoying language trend in the last year. A phrase that allows you to dismiss someone without making a reasoned argument yourself. Where would Western Civilization be if Socrates' discussions always ended with "Nice alternative facts"? I think I made a reasoned argument - he is striking out a lot, which is rarely the sign of a great hitter; he has no extra base hits, which means he isn't driving the ball; he's being helped by an unsustainable BABIP. When someone describes a "hot bat", I'd expect a lot more than that. Which of those were alternative facts? (shudders)

I wrote catcher, not sure why you think I didn't. He does profile to catch at least 1/3 of the time. A typical 3 game series involves a day game after a night game and he catches that. The Twins also just haven't faced many lefties this year.

Also, we have a lot of underlying numbers for LaMarre. Those would be his minor league numbers and his struggles at the MLB level in the past. It would be one thing if LaMarre had solid minor-league numbers like Grossman (.772 OPS in AAA), Garver (.905 OPS) or Granite (.830 OPS). But he doesn't. His AAA OPS is .726 with 19 home runs in almost 1000 at-bats. Guys with that track record better be elite CF or have elite base running skills to hang on as 4th outfielders. Ryan LaMarre is not that guy; he profiles to have a sub .700 OPS in the majors with little pop and average corner outfield defense and base running.

Garver is rated a B-/C prospect by most lists (B = could be an everyday player, C = likely a role player). He's not an elite prospect and has been built up a bit too much on TD. I like Garver great as a backup catcher who also profiles as a nice bench bat and spot starter at 1B/DH. It's also nice that he can play corner OF in a pinch and has some pop. But he's not some elite hitter and he shouldn't be the Twins DH when he's not catching. Maybe the occasional DH spot against a tough lefty?

Grossman is far more likely to be an enduring part of this team than LaMarre. The Twins should invest at-bats in him over a guy who is a fringe 25-man guy. I'm also always baffled by the hot bat thing. I agree that there are times that guys look dialed in. And maybe it works for guys like Dozier or Mauer where the hot streak runs for 2-3 weeks. But for a guy like LaMarre, aren't you also going to get two 0-5 games at the end before you find out that the hot streak is over? You've gotten maybe two games of hot streak and gotten two games of "Oh yeah, that's why we got this guy for nothing." There are reasons to worry about Grossman and reasons to upgrade on the 4th OF at the deadline (Andrew McCutchen is my target) but Ryan LaMarre is not likely to be that upgrade. Grossman has proven himself on the MLB level and deserves a little more time before we write him off. Same thing with Logan Morrison.

LaMarre should definitely get one of the games. I'm not sure he should get both. Grossman is a better player historically and is much more likely to be an enduring part of the Twins team than LaMarre. It'd be smart for the Twins to get Grossman one of those two games. Garver DHing is not a bad idea though again, the Twins might be better off getting Grossman some RH DH at-bats that game and keeping Garver as a PH for Castro late in the game against a lefty reliever.

But he does have enough at bats that he qualifies as a "hot bat"? Can't have it both ways, either he has enough at bats for us to draw conclusions or he doesn't. People are arguing that his results this year demand more playing time. That couldn't be farther from the truth. His hits are all singles and every ball he puts in play has landed safely. He's been striking out a lot - 5 times in 12 at-bats. The only thing keeping it going is that 7/7 batted balls are hits. If he had a regular BABIP of .333 he'd be 2 for 12 with five strikeouts and people would be fishing through the Rochester box scores to see who should be brought up for him. We need to get some perspective on Mr. Lamarre. People are setting themselves up for disappointment.

Archer has pretty pronounced splits that make having left handed bats vital. Removing Grossman or Morrison from the lineup for LaMarre would be reverse strategy. If we want to get LaMarre a game, great. But let's make it against a lefty. Same thing for benching Castro for Garver. You want left handed bats. More fair is to sit Sano for a game and get Adrianza a shot to hit from the left side.

LaMarre doesn't have a "hot bat". He has struck out a lot, has no extra-base hits and literally every ball he's put in play has happened to not get caught. He's showed weakness in the form of striking out, a lack of strength with no XBH and he's been lucky. If we're going to get mad at Molitor for not taking statistics into consideration, we need to be consistent. The underlying numbers on LaMarre clearly show that his hot streak is a mirage.

SF gave up a middling reliever, international money and their 2016 2nd rounder (a college OF) for McCutchen. If you go to midseason and the Giants are out of it, I'd think that Andrew Bechtold would get it done. Might even be an overpay by the Twins, depends what the market is for OF help and depends what McCutchen does this year. If he continues to slump early, it could even be just a salary dump where the Twins hope he bounces back to the norm a bit.

I don't know that you need to replace him. He's not a bad bench bat for situations where you need baserunners (not all pinch hitting is in a 1 run game). He's just maybe not a great 4th OF who is getting a start or two a week. I think the ideal would be to find a 4th OF who is a RH power bat and shift Grossman to that 25th man spot. That RH 4th OF isn't coming up within the organization so you have to go out and find it. It'll depend who is selling at the deadline but to me it's someone like Granderson last year (but RH). A vet on an expiring contract who wants to play for a winner before hitting free agency. LA gave up Jacob Rhame, an utterly forgettable reliever, for Granderson. So it doesn't cost much at the deadline but it shifts roles around a bit. Grossman is a Sano caddy on the bases late and is capable of coming in and having a decent at-bat. Veteran is the guy in that HR pinch-hit and start a few days a week. I did a very unscientific look but guys like Carlos Gomez or AJ Pollock might make sense. In an ideal world, McCutchen might be available if the Giants flop. Not sure he'd be a willing 4th OF but that would be a great pickup and likely wouldn't cost much since he's on an expiring deal.