ThejacKmp

He knows about Reed.

I forget where it was but I saw it here on TD. It might have been the game recap where Adrianza pinch-ran for Grossman? They had a chart with everyone's speed: Grossman surprisingly fast, Adrianza, surprisingly slow. Eye test is influenced by position I imagine. SS are supposed to be fast. Morrison makes a bad 4th OF too since he's left-handed. And sucks in the OF. It's just a shame if that happens - every concept indicates he'll likely be a decent player at some point. Guys don't generally just lose it at 30!

I guess that depends how well you think Adrianza can handle outfield? Is he an emergency guy or is he a guy who you feel is on a par with Grossman? Grossman is much maligned in the OF but he at least played it a decent amount. Mauer and Buxton mean bye bye to LaMarre and Cave. Maybe they'll try Escobar as a 4th OF? He's played the equivalent of 30 full games out there but it certainly wouldn't be ideal. I'd hate to give up on Morrison this early. He's got too decent of a track record against righties to be this bad.

The Twins are 1-0 in Matt Belisle Era 2.0

Adrianza gets a lot of deserved crap here but he's not a bad utility infielder. You could ask for a bit more speed on the basepaths (most shocking statistic of this year is that Grossman is faster than him) but he handles the glove well and is a switch hitter. He's just been overmatched playing everyday. Too bad his days are numbered when Polanco comes back. Hard to see him sticking on the roster then.

The Twins are 1-0 in Matt Belisle Era 2.0

Nick Punto really is amazing. He made $23 million over a 14 year career ($6200 per plate appearance) with a career OPS+ of 78. He had one year over 100 OPS+ (125, the ultimate outlier and only in 166 plate appearance). How did he last so long? How did he get teams to pay him once he wasn't cheap? It would be like Adrianza playing another 8-10 years. Batty.

Yeah. But I think if they had a decent pen, they might have stuck with Matt a bit longer. He wasn't pitching all that badly and the sample size was tiny. But sometimes you need change just to have change. And no one is likely to miss Belisle terribly.

I think he wants to have faith in him and is predisposed to have faith in him (kind of like how we all probably feel safer with an older doctor than a young gun with the fanciest training) but he still won't just give him the role. The Twins pen has set roles and they're not going to disrupt that for a guy they got off waivers, no matter the history.

Maybe. This seems pretty baseless, it's just your opinion man. I could see him being ahead of Magill but I think he's behind Rogers to start. The difference is that Molitor trusts him as a vet (and a guy who helped the Twins last year) and if he pitches well early, he may move up to more meaningful innings. But he'll have to earn that role almost certainly. Molitor isn't an idiot, despite what the TD boards claim.

Not sure you’re right in saying he was facing guys in low-leverage situations. 2015 Belisle had 2/3 of his opportunities were when the score was within two runs. If you extend that to his team being anywhere from -2 to +4 (teams tend to trot out capable relievers in that range, sneaking in bad guys down three but not playing with fire at 4 runs or less above) that number is up to 85%. So while he wasn’t a closer or elite set-up man, he pitched meaningful innings when you’d expect batters to be playing “normally”. As far as inning goes, he only pitched in the 5th or 6th inning five times out of 34 appearances and four of those were close games. He pitched most often in the 7th or 8th and seems to have been a solid setup man. 2016 More correct here. Belisle had half of his 40 appearances when the score was -2 to +2. The other half were in low leverage situations. He pitched much more regularly in the 4th to 6th innings (about 40% the time). That said, 2016 was the rare decent Nationals pen as they had some proven arms in Teinen, Kelly, Papelbon, Solis and Felipe Vazquez in the pen. So perhaps it’s not surprising that he pitched in lower-leverage situations and was more of a 2018-Taylor-Rogers type. And again, half of the time in close situations suggests he wasn’t a long-man mopping up innings. Elite is incorrect and overstated, you're right. But those two seasons are some really nice numbers and they're back-to-back. I don't think it's a stretch to think he might have something else left. Depends how they use him; we should wait before we riot. EDIT: Looked into 2016 a bit further. He started out the year getting 7th and 8th inning games that were relatively close but then hit the DL for 6 weeks. When he came back he seemed to have been passed by a guy or two but still pitched meaningful innings. He really started pitching much earlier when the contending Nationals traded for Melancon and Rzepczynksi at the deadline. So perhaps 2016 lower-leverage innings is more the result of being with a better team than anything else. FWIW, his ERA was pretty steadily around 2.00 throughout the season.

Matt Magill pitched 5/29, 6/5 and not since then. So the Twins are already doing it. My silver lining for this (again, I don't think it's a great move, I just don't think it's disastrously inexplicable) is that perhaps the Twins are going to start using Magill more often, spreading out the workload for Reed/Pressley/Hildy. He may turn back into a pumpkin but he's had some nice K numbers in the minors and is only 28 so perhaps he's found something. I'd like to find out and maybe Belisle is part of that?

Where do you get the sense he's going to pitch in the 7th/8th inning? I've seen nothing indicating his role. If he pitches in that inning he'll have earned it in lower-leverage situations. Alternative view: Cleveland has so many pen spots going poorly that they can't afford to stash a guy Like Belisle at the end of their pen (like the Twins did with Hildy early in the season). He's expendable and they're at "throw things at the wall to see what happens" panic-level now. Not saying that view is right but there's any number of reasons that Cleveland might be blowing up its pen. You can be sure that if the Twins pen was falling apart, a guy like Duke might get cut so they can bring up a young arm to stop the bleeding. Luckily, the Twins have been an average pen (#13/30 in an ESPN thingy today) so they've worked through some struggles and not panicked.

I'd assume because you want to have him pitching regularly in AAA rather than sitting at the end of the bench sopping up innings? Will also be interesting to see if the Twins use Belisle for longer outings when he does come in. They have no reason not to push him.

Not comparing the two at all, just giving a best case scenario for dumpster diving. It’s the job of a GM to shift through the rubble for value. Some of that is bringing in starting pitching options, some of it is bringing in the LaMarres and Caves of the world and some of it is bringing in relievers who you think might catch for awhile. Magill has been a great example of the last, albeit in low-leverage situations. Maybe the Twins are about to trust him a bit more and want Belisle for the junk reliever role? And again, I’m not saying this is the greatest move of all time. I’m just saying there’s not really cause to freak out on the Twins taking a chance on a liked veteran over sitting a prospect in the back of the pen where he pitches once a week.

Maybe they want those guys to get to pitch regularly. Any one of those guys is going to be 5th or 6th guy on the totem pole in MN. There's something to be said for having a guy you're not invested in who is liked in the clubhouse be your last bullpen guy. Terry Mulhullonding it.

The numbers are the numbers. The batters don't change when you're a middle-inning guy. Maybe the approach a bit but he had two years where the numbers are really good. And he treaded water in a more serious role with the Twins last year. I can think of weirder things to do with the last bullpen spot for three weeks.

Agreed. Really surprised they didn't give cash to the Cubs for Gimenez when Castro went down. Gimenez understands the staff, would be a great mentor for Garver and isn't useless with the bat in small doses. I can't think the Cubs would stand in the way of a veteran catcher getting a chance to play in the majors, especially in the other league. I get the Cubs wanna keep some depth but Gimenez isn't that good and maybe you get a lottery ticket prospect?

At the same time, part of being a GM is working through the retreads to find something useful. Yeah it goes poorly but you get a Jake Arietta sometimes. I'm glad they like relief arms over utility infielders. Nick Punto is probably the upside of reclaimed utility guy. At least relief arms have a chance to become important parts.

He was bad for Cleveland but he was pretty decent for the Twins last year and is only two years removed from an elite two-year stint. I wouldn't make any judgements based on 10 2/3 innings from this year. Relievers are a weird bunch: after all, Brian Duensing is still in this league and is a solid setup man for a contender. How many of us would have predicted that? I'm not going to defend it to the death. I just don't think it's bad enough to get worked up about. Maybe they saw something in his delivery that they think they can fix. Maybe they want him as a mentor who slots in at the end of the pen for a month or two. Who knows?

I wonder how permanent this is. Petit hasn't been playing but when Mauer, Polanco and Buxton come back, a pitcher will likely have to go (you can drop LaMarre and Adrianza but after that there's nobody to drop). Will they drop Belisle then or send a young guy down. This is likely a meh move. My level of frustration will depend on whether they use him in a high-leverage situation. I don't mind giving him some up-big or down-big innings to see if he can become an okay piece. But I don't think he will and hope they have a quick hook when the third of Mauer, Polanco and Buxton come back.

That ’06 pitching staff was so top-heavy though. Yeah the ’18 Twins have no one like Johan but Liriano only started 16 games – I think a full season of Berrios would beat that. The ’06 Twins had Radke on the downslope of his career, Boof Bonser, Carlos Silva, Scott Baker and Kyle Lohse. I’d take the Twins current #2 through #6/#7 starters. That ’06 team had better starting pitching for the playoffs but during the season not so much. Different eras but starters in 2006 had a 4.50 ERA and in 2018 they have a 4.23 ERA so pretty equivalent. Bullpen is no question, 06 was really good. Where I think the 2018 Twins could be markedly better is hitting. That 06 team was so top heavy – Mauer and Morneau with OPS+ over 140 but only two other guys over 100: Cuddyer and Hunter. Having five below average hitters in your lineup is pretty brutal (to be fair Bartlett was a 99 OPS+ so slightly below average). By contrast, the 2018 Twins have struggled at the plate and still have five guys (of the 10 with 100 AB or more) at 100 OPS+ or higher (and Rosario and Escober have a higher OPS+ than Mauer in 06). The guys below 100 are Garver, Adrianza, Sano, Morrison and Grossman. Adrianza will be replaced by Polanco, Garver should get some help at the deadline, Grossman will be replaced by Buxton/Mauer, and Sano and Morrison’s track record shows they have a good chance to pick it up. The 06 lineup was top heavy and the 18 lineup has been top heavy as well. But in 06 the big moves were Punto and Bartlett. Those were fine but the 18 Twins have a lot more potential to explode with Buxton, Sano, Morrison, and Polanco ready to come back and step it up. You could very readily have an 8-deep scary lineup by July 1st – and Garver also has the potential to be a decent stick. These Twins could go on a run like 2006. They have deeper pitching and the lineup is scarier. The pen will have to step it up but it's not a liability. And maybe you won't need the pen if you're suddenly scoring 6-8 runs a game and getting consistently decent starts?

You're not the only one.

Agreed. Get he's young and could develop but as a plodding 1B/DH he's gotta hit for power and strike out less. It'll be interesting to see if he drops in midseason lists.

A lot of Troy Williamson references on the boards lately. Did he do something recently that put him in the public eye?