ThejacKmp

Yes. The Twins clearly came into last year saying that they didn’t have a lot of obvious long-term needs except for pitching. They were only going to multiple years for high-end relievers (Reed) or starters (Darvish). They were in on both of those markets but didn’t over-react when the market went outside their comfort. They instead pivoted to guys available on one-year deals and spent aggressively, knowing that they had money to spend in the short term and wanted to preserve long-term flexibility. That’s smart GMing – know your priorities, follow your limits, pursue value. I said the market fell out on Lynn and Logan for long-term deals. The Twins swooped in and made competitive one-year deals (with a nice team option for Morrison if he did well, a great touch) that were in no way bargain shopping. The Twins signed guys who were in the top 10-20 free agents available. That’s a far cry from Rondell White, Tony Bautista, Rick Reed. I really think you must’ve only started watching the Twins the last five years if that’s your concept of shopping the bargain bin. The bargain bin are the guys who are two years past being productive. The guys who were in Japan a year ago. The guys who have been cut twice in the past three years. If you think that Lance Lynn and Logan Morrison would be sitting at home waiting still if the Twins hadn’t scooted in, I don’t know what to say. You’re not living in reality. There was interest for both of them but the Twins moved quickly to make competitive offers financially and PT-wise in an environment with a reasonable chance of competing (which is important to FA who want more exposure).

See but I think you're saying that it would have been a mistake. It would not have been. Five years $100 million is a reasonable price to pay for an elite pitcher if you're the twins. There's risk but the payoff is worth it. I think the thing I say the most on this site is Joe Mauer is the best. And the second is that we need to review the process, not the results. Hindsight GMing is worthless and unfair. The Twins handled Darvish well this year, getting in when it made sense and backing out once it didn't.

This to an extent. The sinking part. I would've signed him for 5 years. It was reasonable to expect him to be good for 2-3 years and then decline. $20/yr isn't crazy for a 4th starter, especially with inflation over a half decade. We've also all written off Darvish but there's nothing preventing him from coming back and having a nice years 2-4 on that deal. There's no TJ or major injury that anyone can point to. It's just hard for the Cubs to lose year 1 when you know years 5 and 6 won't be pretty. Glad the Twins didn't but I won't pretend I thought 5 for $100 was a stupid gamble for the Twins. It actually felt just about right to get a potential ace pitcher. (and FWIW I would've done the Arietta deal in a heartbeat as well).

Not being a crank a-hole in any way. It's c'est la vie. Just FYI, an easy spelling mistake to make. Stupid French. I concur on everything you said and think it's important to emphasize that the Twins tried to extend Escobar before dealing him. That was smart. And he was smart to want to hit the market. This is likely his only shot and a big kick down the stretch could really set him up. I'm assuming the Twins weren't dumb and didn't offer him a contract based on the expectation he will regularly lead the league in XBH.

Meh, I don't think its this. There's nothing inherent about the Twin Cities that makes a guy not choose it. Especially a summer sport. Guys go where the money is, period. The real issue is that for elite players, there’s always going to be more money in big markets. Those markets can afford tax payments, they can offer more years and eat the bad years, they’re just always going to win. It’s like me going to a silent auction with the Vanderbilts and the Du Ponts. When the fancy items come up, they’ve just got deeper pockets. If they want Manny Machado, they’re going to be able to make him an offer he won’t refuse. I’m going to be stuck shopping the next tier down. Which is fine – the Manny Machado contracts regularly turn bad and I might do better in that lower tier. But it isn’t going to be flashy. It isn’t anything but money. Players go where the money is.* * To a point. No one is going to the Royals. But the Twins have an exciting core and were in the playoffs a year ago. They’re not the Royals. Thank Flying Spaghetti Monster.

C'mon. Lynn and Morrison weren’t the bargain bin. How long have you been a Twins fan? Rondell White was bargain bin. Tony Bautista was bargain bin. Juan Castro was bargain bin. Lynn and Morrison were two guys who the market fell out on. Lynn’s qualifying offer, the (over?)valuing of draft picks, the desire of big markets to stay under the tax for this offseason, and increasing analytics meant that Lynn and Morrison weren’t going to get the long-term deals they wanted. At that point, the Twins paid fair market value for one year deals. Both guys saw a chance to come to a team that could contend and build up their value for 2019 when teams are likely spending again. The Twins didn’t play it cheap – they played it conservative. They weren’t in on either guy long term because they have a young team and wanted to keep payroll flexible. They waited out the market and made two smart signings. Neither worked out but that’s the way it goes sometimes. They weren’t in the bargain bin though. Maybe the sale aisle but that’s just smart shopping.

It can absolutely be both. They were smart to be in on Darvish for 5 years at $100 million. That's a reasonable price and though the contract will likely suck by year 5, you can certainly justify it for years 1 to 3 or 4.The Twins got into the deep end (not the deepest end but that's reserved for larger markets) for sure. They also were smart not to sign Darvish at what he got. That sixth year is tough for a small market team with a bunch of young talent. That cuts into resigning guys (not a problem right now but FO couldn't know that at the time) and makes it much more likely you're sitting on multiple terrible years at the end of the contract. They knew when the contract got too large to be justifiable and were smart to back off. Wanting Darvish last offseason doesn't make anyone foolish. Taking future events into consideration when evaluating past decision making is.

Oh man, I think this is revisionist thinking, First of all, no one saw Darvish struggling this year. People thought the end of that deal would be a bear and people overreacted to Game 7 and said he wasn’t a true #1 pitcher but no one said “Darvish is going to get hurt year 1.” I don’t think we’re saying anything bad about the FO in saying they were in on Darvish. If the Twins had gotten him for 5 at $100 million, everyone would’ve thought that a good deal. Anything else is MMQBing. Front office personnel never pretend to be omniscient, it’s the fans talking afterwards who do (and then expect the FO to have been so beforehand). And I also think you’re forgetting that the Twins were very much in. They had the top offer on the market for a good amount of time (3-5 days?) Darvish’s agents did the right thing and used that offer to drive up the price but it took a long while for the Cubs to bite. No one else was in on it – Yanks and Dodgers were watching luxury tax, Red Sox were interested in hitting, Astros went with a trade. The Twins came much closer than you’re giving them credit for to getting Darvish. (Thankfully they didn’t!) That deal almost did get it done. Arietta got three years $75 and that was the other big arm out there. The market was depressed last offseason and it was a chance for a smaller market to be able to afford the biggest pitching name on the market. If not for the Cubs, we’d be bemoaning the albatross contract and Target would be selling Darvish T’s on the clearance rack.

I don't know. They were in on Darvish to the end and simply couldn't match the Cubs financial might. They also made fair market offers to Lynn and Morrison, dropping $20 million to take advantage of the market. I think all three of those set the stage for the Twins to be players in free agency. They're not going to get Bryce Harper or Machado but they'll be able to make some moves.

Amazingly for Glenn Williams too was that three of those 13 games involved him pinch-hitting. He only got once chance to get that hit.

He kind of reminds me of Glenn Williams and Josmil Pinto. They weren't that good and it's not like they had a long future in the majors (not a ton of power) but they put together a hot stretch when the debuted. Glenn Williams might be my favorite stat of all time. He played 13 career games and got a hit in every game, tying the MLB record. In that 13th game he hurt his shoulder diving back into 1B and never played in the majors again. Moonlight Graham-esque!

Okay looked it up. Josh Donaldson will be on the market, Marwin Gonzalez, Moose, Mchado, Jung-Ho Kang, Luis Valbuena, and maybe Adrian Beltre. I don't know who needs a 3B but that's a pretty deep pool with Escobar. Perhaps the Twins can bring him back on a reasonable deal. He'd be a nice 2B/3B security blanket.

Oh I don't think the Twins will sign Machado (and don't think they should really, he's going to get an amount of money that would leave the Twins utterly devastated if he shattered a leg or something). But a market that has Machado, Moose and other guys I'm not even thinking of will make guys like Escobar cheaper. It's not a good year to be shopping for a 1B type (a reason I think Mauer will be back if he wants to, albeit on a 1-year deal) but it's not the worst 3B market.* * I don't know who needs a 3B either. I'm not very smart.

Brian Dozier is on any top 5 lists of problems the Twins had this year. Likely #3 after Buxton and Sano. He's put up a 91 OPS+ while taking the second most at-bats for the Twins this year. He's been pretty awful. Not sure how you think his .708 OPS is only "a little bit short" of his career .772. Especially when you compare it to a more recent sample of his past two years, when it was .871. Dozier was godawful this year. Godawful. Morrison and Lynn and the bullpen were bad too but Dozier was a guy you depended on. The others were icing on the cake.

The pessimism of TD is astounding. A week ago everyone wanted to blow it up. Now they're mad it's blown up and call it a rebuild. This is why I regularly take weeks off from this site (why do I come back? I can't quit you!) No reason the Twins won't be competitive next year. They have massive payroll space, interesting young players (including Kepler, Buxton, and Sano - all of whom are young enough to bounce back), and play in a still-weak division (and the Indians will be worse next year as they lose Miller and Allen). This is not even a retool. It's just realism. They weren't going to win, they got a nice haul and they're ready to go for it again next year and beyond.

They made him an offer. In the month leading up to the trade, they talked to him about an extension. Reasonably, he was not interested since he can hit free agency for the first time and should have some suitors. Unless the Twins blew him away (hard since he was at peak value), he's unlikely to take it. Also, you're likely delusional if you think Escobar is signing a two year extension. He will be looking for a long-term deal of at least 3-4 years. I think any extension would have had to be 3 years $36 million. The Twins are wise to see if he keeps up this hot year and how the market develops. There are other 3B out there (Machado, Moose) and they may be able to get a better deal in the offseason. Plus they get the prospects they traded him for, who were not insignificant.

1.) Catching matters, especially with young pitchers. If you want Gonsalves, Mejia, Romero etc. to develop, you want a veteran catcher. Astudillo is not a long term solution and is not worth jettisoning Wilson. 2.) This is just the first deadline. LoMo will make it through waivers and Rodney may as well. Those two should keep playing as a result, we don't know what will happen over the next month and who might need reinforcements. 3.) Belisle should be gone. Depending on who can come up, Grossman would be okay too, though there is something to be said for having a veteran maybe? 4.) Disagree with many September call-ups. Guys who aren't ready for MLB don't gain anything by being overmatched and can lose confidence and develop bad habits. Gordon isn't ready. Rooker isn't ready. Arraez isn't ready. Other guys make sense but not all of them do. 5.) You also should keep playing a reasonable squad for fans. A mix of some high-level prospects (Gonsalves, Wade) and some older fan favorites (Mauer) is likely best.

I mean, they brought in and have kept Belisle so its not a veteran thing. They traded veterans and fan-favorites because they were on their last year of a contract and that's what a team should do. What contract wouldn't be a pay cut after $23 million? Are you talking a $3 million insult offer? Or something $8-10 million? Cuz I think he'd take that. He wants to play another year and for 2019, he fits the Twins plans. Barring some extensive free agent signings, which seems unlikely, he's likely to get as many games as he wants - even if Rooker and Austin are ready, the former of which seems unlikely. 2020 may be another matter.

Up to now, the Twins next two years had Mauer, Vargas and a lot of nobody at 1B/DH. Rooker looked like a second half of 2019 debut but not someone ready at the beginning of the year. Nothing standing in the way of Mauer except the Twins moving Sano to 1B and picking up Morrison’s extension or getting heavily involved in free agency. Given that they have no depth at 3B, Morrison has been awful, and the free agent pool is terrible at 1B unless you really like Nelson Cruz nearing 40, it seemed likely the Twins would bring back Mauer. Not sure if that has changed or not. They acquired Tyler Austin, who seems likely to be in the 1B/DH group next year while serving as a 5th OF. But that certainly doesn’t eliminate Mauer as Austin hits righty and seems to slot into a platoon nicely with Mauer. Luke Raley is another matter since he bats lefty and has spent over half his time at 1B. He figures to start next year in AAA but could make a debut later in the season. Seems to me that neither of these makes Mauer expendable for 2019. Could be a different matter in 2020 when you’ll potentially have Austin, Raley, and Rooker in play for 4th OF, 1B and DH at bats along with Sano and any free agents. Seems like if the Twins do bring back Mauer, it may be on a year-to-year basis rather than a 2 year commitment.

Does the Twins picking up marginal 1B types in the past two days have any impact on Mauer's place with the Twins in the future? Raley may not be a guy you build around but they seem to have gotten some 1B/corner OF types that provide an option to bringing Mauer back. As a Joe Mauer lover, I am scared.

I mean, it depends what you can get for Dozier. The market for him sure looks limited with most contenders solving their middle infield problems. Really the only remaining deal out there is the Indians trading for him and moving Kipnis to center. Kipnis has already looked bad out there so that's a tough call. At some point, the Twins may decide that keeping Dozier makes more sense. Reasons: 1.) He is a marketable name down the stretch. 2.) Gordon doesn't really deserve time at the MLB level and should stay in AAA. So really, you're clearing a lineup spot for . . . Adrianza? Not a real need. 3.) If you are playing for that 1% shot, it's hard to see it happening without Brian Dozier. No one would be super shocked if he hit 18-20 home runs in August and September. He's done it before. If you're not getting anything decent for him, might as well see if he can go nuts. 4.) Along those lines, if he does go nuclear, Dozier may suddenly be worth the one-year qualifying offer. If he finishes strong, he'll likely turn it down due to pride and the ability to get a three year deal for $30-$35 mill. That 75th overall pick (and the pool money it comes with) might be more valuable than the bag of balls a team is offering you right now. Maybe the Twins get blown away but I'm fine keeping Dozier. He blocks no one, adds some excitement down the stretch, and there's a chance he blows up and you get a better asset anyways.

Dozier should stay. The Twins aren't that far out of the Central. Any chance of doing well involves: a.) Dozier going nuclear b.) Sano being competent c.) Bullpen piecing it together d.) Young starters being okay They'd have to do well in nine games vs. Cleveland but in baseball anything is possible. It's not crazy to see the Twins going nuts and making a run. And it would be hilarious.

It would be absolutely amazing if the Twins swept Cleveland and were only six back. Part of me wants them to keep Dozier on the off chance he goes nuclear and the Twins can keep it a race into September.

even more amazing since they only hold 12 position players a lot of the time. You're making a strawman argument. I didn't say they'd bring up 13 prospects in two years. They will have at least five of Garver, Mauer, Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Kepler, and Polanco. Plus a free agent or two. They really would only have 4-6 new players. Some of those will be next year (Gordon, Rooker) and some will be later. This is not an audacious ask I'm making. My point is that they have ready reserves to handle the guys going out. That's a natural cycle in baseball.

And Mauer missed almost a month and struggled coming back from a concussion.