ThejacKmp

The Twins payroll will go down next year but that's almost entirely due to the large salaries going off the board (Mauer, Dozier, Santana, Lynn) and the lack of open spots they need to fill (corner infielder/DH, maybe a starter, always a pen guy). Unless the Twins get extension happy (I hope) or land a big free agent (seems unlikely) it’s hard to see how salary wouldn't go down. It's also hard to see how the team wouldn't have $10-$15 million to spend on a 1B/DH type. That’s really the only spot they need to fill due to young internal talent. The issue is who will be available. I may have missed someone who could switch to 1B (Tulowitzki springs to mind) but the list I found is: Danny Valencia Justin Smoak Mark Reynolds Hanley Ramirez Steve Pearce Brandon Moss Marwin Gonzalez Lucas Duda Victor Martinez Nelson Cruz Evan Gattis Pedro Alvarez Matt Adams Didn’t include Mauer because he’ll be a Twin or nothing I imagine. Cruz, Matt Adams, and Justin Smoak are the top tier of that list while Marwin Gonzalez has some upside even in an off year but none of those guys are that amazing and all are aged. After that, it’s a lot of Logan Morrison types. The Twins have a team option for Morrison at $8 million. You might be able to get him lower on the free agent market but if you let him hit it, he may go elsewhere (and probably will, guys don't usually resign where an option was turned down for whatever reason). It’ll be interesting to see if the Twins tap that market again or go with what’s familiar at a reasonable price in Morrison. I imagine the next ten weeks will tell a lot about that.

I can't find stats on this anywhere but I'd be surprised if Morrison was getting shifted more than he was in the past. Lefties with pull power were early targets of shifting and I imagine that the biggest jumps were years ago. Hard for me to see the shift being the reason for this season's lower BABIP.

But not above where they've been playing for their careers. I'm not asking Joe Mauer to hit 10 home runs or Jorge Polanco to be an MVP. I'm asking them to play up to their potential. No one is saying Cleveland isn't good but I don't think it takes blinders to say that they're catchable. No one is saying the Twins roster doesn't have some issues but the other side is that all of those problems are solvable with internal personnel playing up to potential. There isn't a problem on this roster that needs outside help. Except maybe catcher and even that isn't that bad if Garver can just step up.

Splitting this in two. I’m not sure your point – we’re both saying that his underlying numbers haven’t changed. What seems to have happened is he’s popping the ball up more than driving it to the OF and his BABIP is crazy low (54 points is a lot). The first part may be approach (but also may be a sample size thing or a pressing thing) but the second part is the definition of luck. He’s put about the same number of balls into play and suffered way worse than expected results. I agree that his age is a potential concern but he’s only 30. Also, generally you see other numbers change when a guy starts to lose it. His LD rate drops, he strikes out more, he’s swinging at pitches out of the zone he never used to. That hasn’t happened to Morrison (with the exception of infield pop-ups which to me are pressing more than anything with age though I of course could be wrong). I’d be on him returning to form (not 2017 LM but 2014-2016 LM). That wouldn’t be big for a Twins team with Sano healthy and Escobar 3B/DHing but it is for a team giving Jake Cave and Grossman regular DH ABs.

See, weirdly, I’d be worried if they had been playing well. This team has more talent than it’s show so far which means they have the potential for another gear. Consider: Dozier goes nuclear like he does for two months sometimes. We’ve seen signs of this the past week.Mauer gets hot and is on base, taking professional at-batsPolanco isn’t even 2nd half Polanco, he just isn’t AdrianzaMorrison and Kepler get a little better luck and start hitting some balls out (Morrison is getting hotter)They get an injection of talent from a revitalized Buxton or Sano (too much to ask for both but one seems okay)The starting pitching stays the same and they get a bit of an infusion from Romero/Gonsalves/Santana down the stretchDoes it seem crazy to think that they could go on a run? On paper they’re better than this and have been hurt by injuries/back luck. Cleveland is vulnerable with that pen, a top-heavy lineup, and the number of head-to-head games.

1.) Incorrect. The Twins control their own destiny. If they win out, they will win the division (and like the #1 seed. And be the loose basis for a major Hollywood motion picture). You can argue that in baseball controlling your own destiny is meaningless because of the number of games but they absolutely control their own destiny. I'd also argue that they control their own destiny in a real sense of the word because if they win every game against Cleveland, they should be in good shape. Did you watch that Cleveland pen last night? That’s not a team pulling away. 2.) Logan Morrison’s BABIP is 54 points lower than his career average. His K rate is lower than last year, he’s hitting LD at the same rate, his Ground Out/Air Out is more skewed towards Air Outs than ever before, and his walk rate is the same as his career average. He’s popping up in the IF more than he did in the past but other than that, it’s hard to see any real differences in his peripherals. I think you can very concretely say that bad luck has played a key role in his struggles. He’s popped the ball up a bit more but his BABIP being down 35% is likely a bigger causative effect. Those numbers should even out. He’s not 2017 Logan Morrison but he’s not this guy either.

They do have things to lose. If you were the Royals or Orioles facing a long rebuild, yeah, sell everything. Worked too well for the Astros not to do it. If you were a team like the Nats that are hoping to contend soon and have significant assets, yeah, you gotta thing about selling. Worked too well for the Yankees not to at least think about it. But the Twins are neither. They don’t have amazing assets (Escobar is about it and who knows what he’s worth in a market glutted with middle infielders) and they aren’t looking to bottom out. The thing you stand to lose giving up on a season is the chance to put young players through a pennant race and demonstrate that the FO believes in the guys. The Twins have a non-negligible chance (by virtue of ten games against Cleveland they control their own destiny) and they have guys who could benefit from meaningful or near-meaningful August/September baseball. Again, if the expected return was more than minor league lottery ticket, I’d be more inclined. But I think you lose more by giving up that chance and that experience. Not to mention that making a run perhaps makes it easier to resign a guy like Escobar or attract next year’s Lance Lynn. Guys want to go to contenders so even getting back in and coming up just short looks better than finishing 15 games out. As for Morrison, there is a good reason to feed him at-bats. The Twins have Mauer and Sano at 1B and they both have potential issues (concussions/age and sliders/attitude). Is it crazy to think that Morrison hitting down the stretch might make the Twins want to pick up his cheap 1 year $8 million option? He’s been okay defensively and is a left-handed power bat for a team with nobody inked in at DH or 1B. He’s also well-liked in the clubhouse and has underlying numbers that show he may just be unlucky. Grossman is harder to defend. He’s going to get more expensive next year and Cave/Wade/Rooker seem likely to be in the picture next year. I think he serves a purpose now (RH OF/DHbats are hard to find in the Twins AAA/MLB) and wouldn’t be as easy to replace as you’d think. But if someone wanted Vargas an dumped Grossman, I’d get it.

I like this argument too and I don't see anyone being blocked. Gordon and Wade can wait until September call-ups. Gonsalves too. Romero is being blocked by Slegers, which I don't expect to last. I also think that trading away Lynn for very little creates the possibility that injuries put you in a bad spot. Escobar and maybe one of the relievers are the only guys you can realistically expect to get something for. Escobar creates a hole and I want to resign him. Pen guys are blocking someone. DFAing Belisle and trading Rodney to the Red Sox would neatly take care of that blockage. And maybe one of those arms can be like Hildy from last year.

how is that a worst-case scenario? Their pieces aren't worth anything that profiles to make a difference long-term. Escobar is the best bet and he's one of a dozen infielders on the market. Lynn has some value at the back of a rotation but after that, slim pickings. Going on a run to 4-5 games would give young guys a shot at some meaningful games and give the season a high note and renewed optimism for next year. And the cost is minimal - iffy prospects and a playing time for guys who are struggling in AAA (except Romero, who has PT for Slegers whenever).

The Twins should be making much more targeted decision than “Sell everyone and bring up the young uns”. Especially because bringing up the young uns generally means giving up. Gordon is having trouble in AAA (he’s young and a testament to why we don’t promote guys after a month) and doesn’t look like he needs anything more than a September call-up. Trading Dozier now means you’re getting almost nothing, even if you pick up the salary. If he booms down the stretch, you can give him a QO and get a draft pick when he signs. Much more upside to hanging onto Dozier.Wade is also struggling in AAA a bit and doesn’t really fit this team. Robbie Grossman has little trade value but is a nice piece for the end of an MLB bench. Wade would mean having four LH outfielders and feels redundant. I’d like to see him finish strong in AAA, get a September cup of coffee, and compete with Cave for that 4th OF spot next year.Gonsalves and Romero could pitch in the majors but they’ve both struggled in AAA (or the majors) a bit and could use some time in AAA to iron things out. And even if they put it together, it’s also not like the Twins 5th rotation spot is set since Slegers is a #5 starter if all goes well. Trading Lance Lynn feels like giving up and I’m not sure you’d even get all that much for him. He’s definitely a guy you should wait til right before the deadline (both to see if the team storms back and to let him build more distance between his early season struggles) and then decide whether or not to move.• The bullpen is a place the Twins should be making some targeted sells. I’d shop Rodney, Reed, and Duke but I wouldn’t be taking “whatever the best offer is” and I wouldn’t sell all three. The Twins have some replacement arms coming up that would be interesting to try (and in the case of Rodney and Reed might not be much worse) but I don’t want to gut the pen. The Twins need to get the right thing back and balance getting something back vs. staying strong for another three to seven weeks.• Escobar is the interesting one. He’s a guy who profiles to get you something back (Nunez got you Mejia for example and his season was nowhere near Escobar). At the same time, with Dozier likely out after this season and Gordon/Sano scuffling in the minors, resigning Escobar (a team leader who speaks Spanish) seems like a good idea. You’re much more likely to sign him if you don’t trade him away. I’m not against trading Escobar but I’m looking for the right deal because then I have to go overpay in free agency. And I’m not sure you get that deal – there’s a ton of middle and corner infielders available this year so it’s a buyers’ market. I’d hold onto Escobar, especially since he’s a team leader. I might even start feeling him out about a contract extension, pointing out the glut of infielders hitting the market next year and the fact that he likes the TC. I guess overall, I don’t see why the Twins should be selling unless they can swap a bullpen arm for something. They don’t have a strong chance to win the division but they have an outside shot. Most of their free agents aren’t worth much and those that have some value are guys that you may want to keep long-term (Escobar) or guys where the return might not be worth clearly waving the white flag (Lynn). None of the youth is demanding playing time that isn’t readily available. Shop some pieces and see what happens into the deadline.

I think the risk/reward is higher. Scratch that. I know it. A 5 game series gives you at least three playoff games, one at home. The second wild card gives you one away game. Even if you win the one game, you then have a 5 game series where you've already used your best pitcher. The reward for making a run this year is much higher than last year, when the Twins were chasing the second wild card and not the division.

If the Twins sneak their way to the top of the Central, they won't play the WC game. They'd play in the ALDS. There's realistically a better reason to go for it this year than there was last year. You stand a chance to win 5 games vs. 1

The Twins play 10 more games against Cleveland. If they go 8-2 in those games, they only need to make up 2.5 games. It's not about the overall record, it's the head-to-head. That 2006 team was full of all-stars but it was also full of below replacement level players. Very top heavy. This Twins rotation doesn't have Santana but it has a much better 1-6 that can keep the Twins in games. The lineup has underperformed but that's what you want when making big comebacks - a team that should play better than it has. The reality is that the free agents they have aren't going to fetch much (Lynn and Escobar might if the right team has a need but most of the AL is realistically looking to sell so this isn't a seller's market). If they can move Rodney, they should and bring up a AAA arm that might be better overall. Keep Escobar and sign him to an extension this offseason. See what happens. The Indians are flawed and the Twins have the potential to play much better than they have.

Interesting that Jerry Dipoto is now the toast of the town and signed an extension with the Mariners (they’re playing well but I can’t see how Dipoto’s leadership suddenly made them unstoppable in close games). If I recall, the reason the Angels canned him was Scioscia didn’t want to use analytics and he did. There’s room for improvement over the past (hard to do worse) but the reality is that their backs are against the wall. Trout has two more years. It seems more and more unlikely Ohtani will pitch during that period of time and the roster is still a mess. They can go and spend a bunch of money in free agency (they’ll have to since the farm system is bottom 10) but that generally has mixed results. Especially since Simmons is unlikely to repeat this year and Upton is hitting the age where the wheels can start to come off. There’s not a lot of upside on that roster, not even taking the fragility of the rotation into consideration. To make matters worse, the AL right now is a tough spot to be. The Red Sox and Yankees are young and good and apt to spend a lot this winter. The Astros are in the division and are deep and talented enough to make the division title hard to find. So really, if you’re the Angels you’re hoping to be the second wild card next year? That’s a tough sell with this roster. I think the Angels are going to have to seriously consider moving Trout at the deadline next year which means you may really have wasted a guy who may end up the best baseball player of all time. That’s pretty rough.

Yeah. The Twins don't have such insanely good pieces to sell that they need to move now. Rodney is the only guy I'd be shopping right now because of his ability to implode and then be worth nothing. See where you are at the end of July and if you're out of it, sell Dozier, Reed, Duke, Escobar etc. for what you can get. It won't be much so you don't have much to lose playing the string out on this.

I think it depends what else the Twins have going. As is, Sano can play 3B and Rooker can play OF so there's no one who needs to play 1B, especially with the DH spot open. Joe being left-handed helps too since those guys both hit righty. I think a 1-year deal makes sense. 2 years gets tougher because Rooker should be up by then and the Twins infield gets more crowded with guys like Javier, Gordon, and maybe Lewis coming up. Take it one-year at a time, he's not playing anywhere else.

Strange to release the 24th best prospect huh?

Its a matter of value. No one is going to value him as a closer. But he's not a bad third reliever for a good team.

Don't sleep on Adrianza getting DFA'd. With Polanco up, it would not be strange to see a middle infielder go. Wilson also makes sense. Morrison doesn't. There isn't an easy replacement there (do you want Grossman DHing everyday) and they'd be better off playing him, hoping he gets hot, and can be traded at the deadline.

He's not going to move quickly but not because of the Twins Way. He's new to baseball and they're going to have to teach him significantly more than they do most players.

Under your definition, every starting pitcher who pitched a complete game and won 2-0 would get a save as well. That's a hard no.

2018 is a small sample size but lets go with 2017. Slightly below average. That's passable to me, especially if he hits like the Miguel Sano of yore. Alas he did not do this. Again, if he had a .900 OPS no one would complain about his fielding. In the end a player is the sum of his parts. Sano's a passable 3B defensively and has enormous value at the position if he's hitting. If he's not, then the defense doesn't pass muster. Kind of the opposite of Buxton.

The Twins should be taking the money they spend and investing it in contract extensions. Sano and Buxton, this offseason. Take a shot, only one has to go off for it to be worth it. Get Berrios inked. Take a shot at guys like Polanco, Romero, etc. Machado would be okay except that he wants to play short and isn't any good at it. Not going to break the bank for it and some big market team is going to.

Where are we getting that Sano is not a passable third baseman? He's seemed fairly decent there. Not above average or anything but great arm, passable lateral range, decent range coming in, good effort. It's at the plate he's struggled. If he had a .900 OPS no one would be worried about his ability to play 3B. Do you have any statistics to show that Sano is not a passable third baseman or is this just a hot take? Because otherwise we should go with the Twins professional coaching staff and minor league system who have repeatedly insisted that Sano is an acceptable third baseman. You have to prove what you say, not just say it.

I think it's amazing that people (not Vanimal specifically) who have criticized Mauer's contract for years and talked about how it's held back the Twins (it hasn't BTW) now want to replace it with another massive contract. I don't think Machado's a terrible idea but I also don't think he's what puts the Twins over the top. The Twins need to be patient with the still-young-but-not-that-young Sano and Buxton and trust that the rest of this year/next year will be better. The future is still exceedingly bright, despite the doom and gloom of the TD boards.