tony&rodney
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Everything posted by tony&rodney
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Video: Dreaming on the Twins Adding Dylan Cease
tony&rodney replied to Nash Walker's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Twins Daily has discussed this to death. There are varying views. I would suggest that the Twins put out a very strong offer of Trevor Larnach (LF), Edouard Julien (DH/1B/2B), Willi Castro (utility), and two prospects from the following: Marco Raya, Cory Lewis, Travis Adams, and Kyle DeBarge. This fills some needs for San Diego and frees up money for the Padres to sign an additional FA pitcher similar to Kyle Gibson. San Diego could not get MLB experience of equal value from another team that I can think of. If San Diego want prospects, there are better teams for them to deal with on Cease. Perhaps the Twins would agree to exchange Paddack for Suarez if Castro was withdrawn from the deal. Suarez has two additional expensive years left on a player option. Perhaps too spendy for the Twins. What do you think? -
Not so fast .... Shohei? Alvarez? Agree though, I wouldn't trade much for Casas. Maybe Julien and Cory Lewis.
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I'm not understanding the comments on here, relatively common, that assert that Falvey could easily get another job as a GM or POBO or Team President. His record with the Twins is ok. Teams will seek out better than ok, which starts with the work of front office people working for Milwaukee and Tampa Bay. I'm not down on Falvey any more than I was down on Levine. I have no idea what type of plan they use in regards to building a baseball team. Many argued that Levine would be snapped up in 30 days and I'm not privy to his current status. The key for the Twins roster is dependent on how Falvey sees the current group. There are opportunities to make deals with other teams and I will certainly suggest that the terms can be difficult to hash out. Will Falvey find a way. I think he can if his confidence level rises on those players who need to fill any holes from players sent the other way in a trade. Certainly a new owner will be aware of how Falvey approached and managed the current situation, i.e., handling the roster building this offseason.
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I'm not advocating a trade of Ryan (or Ober) but if the Twins acquired Cease and then trade Ryan the bottom two plus depth remains the same. Cease moves in behind Lopez with Joe or Bailey still as the #3 SP. There are many who dislike the idea of adding a rental such as Cease and are afraid of missing the players that would go the other way. Falvey is probably in that crowd. Cease as a Twin allows the team to see what is available and a prospect such as Basallo is not far from gathering in a Walker Jenkins type talent, which is why it wouldn't happen. It is always worth conversation to stretch ideas. Boston won't just give Casas away. They like him, just not that much. Cron and Tellez don't have the power that Casas has but Casas is slower and not as good defensively as either of those guys. Does Casas get to his power enough? Hmmm.
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If the Twins added Cease, I has suggested that I would be interested in a deal of Ryan for Samuel Basallo. The Orioles say no. Why would I suggest it even? Basallo has a bat that may be Yordan Alvarez and he has also progressed quite a bit as a catcher. I'm also high on both Festa as an MLB pitcher now and Matthews as an MLB pitcher next year. Finally, I like SWR too. So, no don't consider any trade of either Ober or Ryan unless the return is going to be wonderful. Why is Boston willing to trade Casas? Breslow (running the show for Boston) is focused on defense and a balanced roster. Thus he probes for a way to get something for Casas. Boston fans should hope that their team signs Bregman. Bregman pulls the ball and Fenway is perfect for him. He also plays a good third base which pushes the butcher, Devers, over to 1B or DH if it can be accomplished without a storm.
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I would not trade any of SWR, Festa, or Matthews for Casas. I would trade Julien and Marco Raya for Casas and i'm one of the few who actually thinks Julien can rebound. I don't see a fit above my offer.
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Casas might be ok at DH or maybe 1B, but the real problem is that he really isn't worth giving up anything that the Twins value. I would offer Julien.
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The Return of a Different Danny Coulombe
tony&rodney replied to Nate Palmer's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
With a major league contract in his pocket, we welcome Danny and hope he is excellent as well as healthy for the 2025 Twins. -
I totally understand wanting to win now. Me too. Like I said previously, I do like Casas with a bat in his hands. I'm just not seeing any deal that works for the Twins at this time. Jeferson Quero is a catcher in the Milwaukee system. He was expected to debut last year but was injured sliding back into first base and needed surgery. He is likely needing a little time to knock the rust off but otherwise ready for MLB. Quero grades as a 70 defensive catcher. He is the only catcher that has that tag. He is really outstanding behind the plate and has hit well in the minor leagues. The risk on Quero is medium/low. The risk on Casas is high/medium as a comparison.
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In a way the Yankees have a good reason to whine about the Dodgers. The Dodgers only shared their revenue based on what MLB estimated the next media contract during the debacle of the 2011 (?) bankruptcy proceedings. The Dodgers then (right after the signed agreement) negotiated a massive media deal and saved about $600 million of money that should have gone to the revenue fund in the next decade. The Yankees would have liked to have saved $600 million too. The terms were not on a level field even for the wealthy teams. A can of worms or Pandora's box resulted. The problem will be the next step and it will be very difficult unless the 18-20 smallest markets stand together. That has never happened yet in baseball history..
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I'm (admittedly) high on Matthews. I'm suggesting he could be where Woo and Miller were last year in two years (one at AAA, one in MLB rotation). He does have to develop more movement on the edges, which is really similar to what both Woo and Miller did. I'm not feeling a fit for a trade for Casas. I love his power and bat. He is similar to Wallner, although Wallner has better speed and should be able to improve enough to be close to an average outfielder. (I will note here that if Emmanuel Rodriguez is real and Walker Jenkins arrives next year, Wallner gets pushed to DH most likely.) The problem with Casas is similar to too many current Twins - the glove is below average to poor. I find it ironic that people go off on Julien for his defense, a criticism he has earned, but give a pass to Lewis and Miranda and then want to add a guy like Casas. The goal should be to balance the team in order to reduce the players who cannot play defense, are slow, and who strike out too much. I agree that bats are needed but am holding out for better. If Duran is a topic for trading, ask Milwaukee to send Jeferson Quero over. That seems fair.
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Matthews is worth the same as Casas right now. He had a meteoric rise through the minor leagues last season and found out in a rough fashion what he needs to work on now this year in AAA in order to stick in an MLB rotation. In another year Matthews will be similar to Woo or Miller (Seattle pitchers). Breslow would take Matthews for Casas right now. Of course if the Twins want to help a former Twin (Breslow) they could send Duran too. You are right though, Boston would love that deal.
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Sunflower seeds.
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That is not a deal I can see helping the Twins. I would trade Duran and Kyle DeBarge for Jordan Lawler. However, Arizona would not trade Lawler. The Twins need to look over how they are constructing their team in terms of defense, speed, strike out percentage, and such. Casas would join a number of other Twins as slow, defensively challenged, and prone to striking out a ton. Breslow is working to balance the Red Sox offense/position players according to these characteristics. Back in October it seemed like the Twins needed to make several moves. It still feels that way.
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This is an interesting take. I am wondering if you listen to music or watch any television shows or go to movies or have ever been to a Walmart or bought a car or buy gas or have any type of insurance? Professional sports are one of the only professions that require excellence to get to a top salary. While plenty of people (probably the majority) earn their way in all walks of life, there is a ton of wealth that is inherited by idiots (not all who inherit are morons) and a ton of people gain high positions due to their knowing someone. Additionally much of the wealth of most companies comes from government aid. I can't think of a single baseball player who was paid because they were cute or earns a top salary because they knew somebody or inherited the shortstop position. If you want to reward hard work when you seek out entertainment that is professional you can't do any better than going to a baseball game. However, if you just don't support anyone making more than say $500,000 per year and prefer to watch amateur sports, that I can support because if we take away all wealth in the country above that limit a ton of problems could be solved. Maybe that was your point.
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That is exactly what crossed my mind when I saw this article. I have also wondered if the Twins could pull off a deal for Cease and follow it up with a Joe Ryan for Samuel Basallo move. Opportunity is there. Craig Breslow was a pitcher who depended on his fielders to turn the batted balls in play into outs. You can be sure he is very aware of the defensive assets and liabilities of each of the Red Sox players. It is an easy explanation for why Boston wants to move Devers to 1B. They have already moved Yoshida to DH. The Red Sox are also still courting Bregman, a player who is good defensively and fits Fenway Park perfectly. Tristan Casas is a solid power hitting DH, but his glove will make us call for Miranda and Julien at first base. I can see why Breslow wants to get something for Casas and I would do the same. I can also see the value of Casas as a DH for the Twins. I have a hard time thinking of who to surrender in a deal for the lefty slugger though.
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Paddack? Trade with Philly on the horizon? Padres? Henriquez seems like the odd reliever out if none are dealt.
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Derek Falvey must have an incredible amount of confidence in the future (as in 2025) performance of all of the current Twins because there have not been any steps taken to acquire new players for the roster. I'm not counting minor league invites as roster additions. The only addition, as of today, to the 26 person roster is a Rule 5 pick. I would say the Twins are counting on all of these guys to be healthy and productive, so ...... all make it.
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Preller will believe that Cease will return more and Falvey will believe the price is exorbitant. That's why no deal. The reality is that the Padres could use Paddack as a starter more so than the Twins and the difference in money, if Suarez is added to the deal, allows San Diego to sign up an inexpensive free agent while filling holes that they cannot buy on the free agent market. If the Padres look for prospects they can do better talking with either of the Cubs or Mets but I'm not seeing why Preller would shift to prospects to help the team this year. Larnach, Julien, and the minor leaguers C. Lewis and C. J. Culpepper have years of control left, while Paddack and Castro strengthen the team this year. Preller does this deal if offered because it helps the 2025 team. The Twins would hesitate because Castro has been valuable across the field and Larnach had some growth as a batter last year. Minnesota also almost certainly still has positive ideas about Julien, despite the groans from many on Twins Daily. Agreeing to take Suarez is risky too because he still has 2 player option years at $8M. If he bombs, that money is quite a hit. Falvey/Zoll does this deal because it is a splash for boosting public notice of the team. The deal: Larnach, Julien, Castro, Paddack, C. Lewis, and C. J. Culpepper for Cease and Suarez.
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Good. Little late to the show though, don't ya think? 84 wins?
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Who Is Mickey Gasper – Major League Contributor or Minor League Depth?
tony&rodney commented on Paul D's blog entry in Paul Danesi
Mickey Gasper? This will be an interesting look. I know nothing about him except for the statistics, which means I know absolutely nothing about him. -
The simplest solution going forward will be a monstrous difficult task. All attendance and media revenues need to be combined into one pot and distributed evenly. Stadium advertisements, executive boxes, adjoining real estate income, etc. will still give large market teams a big advantage but Milwaukee will no longer need to pretend that running their team perfectly, selling out their stadium, and maxing out their media contracts puts them on anything close to a fair level as the large market teams. It takes two teams to play the games. There are zero reasons why a New York, Houston, LA, or Boston team makes more money off of their media than an opponent. No opposing team, no TV or radio.
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As shown by my byline, I'm a huge Rod Carew fan as well. I have often quoted his dominance over every batter in baseball using the measure of batting average, specifically that 1977 season. It irked me that George Brett, a very fine player and fellow Hall of Fame member, received more national press than Rodney when George hit .390 with 515 PA and 175 hits versus Carew's 694 PA and 239 hits or if you prefer GB=9.4 WAR vs. RC=9.7WAR. An interesting point that started Carew's career is that Calvin Griffith "ordered" the manager to start Carew from Day One of the regular season. Rod had only played as high as "A" ball to that point. Cal knew baseball talent.
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New ownership may have a different view on contract extensions but I would expect that the POBO and/or GM would have some expertise or guidance for an owner on that front. Even Cohen (NYM) has not gone nuts with contracts and extensions and he certainly has the do-re-mi to do whatever he wants to with his money.
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Well, I initially just hit quote for the entire comment but it didn't seem necessary. No foul play was intended and sorry if it seemed so. I'm a Twins fan and not picking on Minnesota but San Diego does support their team more completely from the numbers. As for competition, there have been fifty plus years of economic studies that refute any benefit of a sports franchise to an area based on a simple principal. People have spending habits that include forking over their money for entertainment which is a constant whether there are ten teams or one or zero. The competition for entertainment dollars has been studied to death. However, you have a very good point, winter is different. Perhaps I lost the point you were making. Did I? Was it that Minnesota has more professional teams?
