Dantes929

Except he has only played 15 games, missed 10 games while attending a trade show in Chicago and apparently took advantage of the opportunity to eat some pizza there. Does that look like a guy working on his game or a guy on vacation playing in a beer league a couple times a week? Roster management will probably work just fine if Sano comes in at around 250 lbs. Not so well if he comes in at 300 and then you will be criticizing the Twins for not keeping tabs on one of their best players or insisting that he get in shape. 300 pounds really doesn't play that well at 3rd base or at the plate either.

Who knows? Maybe he will be great. Everyone was way down on Perkins at one point, at May at one point, at Dozier at one point. at Pelfrey at many points. We will get nothing for him so forget about that but at least give him a chance and yes, my huge preference would be that he goes to the bullpen. No reason to give up on him, nor is there any reason at this point to trot him out there just because he makes a boatload of money.

Naw. All he did is win where ever he went. What's so great about that? I would maybe put Butera on there, not because of how good he was but because of how very bad everyone thought he was. The fact that he has made several different playoff teams tells me he was under valued.

The first name that came to my mind was also Shane Mack and it is supported by the fact that a guy like Doc says he didn't put up huge numbers. Mack's OPS with the Twins .854. Puckett's .837 Hrbek .848 Mauer .845 Oliva .830, Carew .841. You can't really say it was small sample size since it was 2400 at bats with the Twins. . One of the sad things is he was having a monster year with a .966 OPS through 81 games when the 2004 season came to a halt due to strike. I am guessing a reasonable case could be made to put him in the top 10 much less the top 50.

Yeah, I knew I wouldn't get away with throwing out his clunker though I think it reasonable in this instance to remark on his last 9 starts vs his first 6. If he was in his third or 4th season I wouldn't think it reasonable either. I just don't think the 4.37 ERA reflected who he was as a starter. I felt very good about our chances when he started. At the time I thought he was one of the best and I just didn't want to see him yanked out of the rotation. I think I have made it clear that I am with spycake in that I don't think he is a meh starter so its more the premise that we disagree on than the conclusion.

I think comparing May's relief numbers against numbers as a starter is a little misleading. His first six starts he had 1 quality start and an ERA of 5.4. Over his next 9 starts he got his ERA down to 4.37 (despite a one out 5 earned runs disaster against the Brewers) and 6 of those starts were QS which is very good. Throw away that clunker and his ERA in his last 8 starts was 2.88. We know his nerves got the better of him in the majors in 2014 so it is not unreasonable he was still getting his feet wet to start 2015. He has the tools and the pitches to be a very good if not great starter and I for one thought he should have been the LAST guy to go to the pen when Santana came back. So what if he was also the guy best suited for relief. I want this guy throwing 200 innings at 3.2 ERA rather than 60 innings of 2.8 ERA. I think 2015 gave him the comfort and confidence to be the Twins top starter in 2016. I've been wrong before but the biggest slam on him was his command and that has become his greatest strength to go along with some pretty good strengths in quality of several different pitches.

I agree with this completely. I imagine the prior decade is viewed as a time of complete stability and predictability. Kind of ties in with the expectations poll on the other thread. While the Twins were winning 6 division titles the predictions ran from 95 losses to 95 wins and you could always point to things do defend it depending on if you were optimistic or pessimistic. There was also the constant angst of is Ford or Tyner good enough to play full time, should Harris or Punto or Valencia start at third base, can we give Casilla 2nd base full time or should he be shortstop or a utility player and if so who should get those spots full time, can Slowey and Blackburn get by, can Baker stay healthy, is Pavano too old, can Liriano get back to 2006 form, can Span hold down center field since he is unproven, can Span have a good sophomore year or was last year just a flash in the pan, can Mauer handle the wear and tear of catching and how can we possibly have Butera as backup, is Thome washed up, can we depend on Kubel knee holding up? I ran that all as one run on sentence for a reason and it could have filled a whole page. This season has nothing like the question marks after 2011 season for starters and I don't think this season has to even be particularly jumbled. I am guessing somewhere there is a chalkboard (maybe not literally) where the Twins have the lineup, the rotation and the relief staff penciled in to start the season and everything springs off of that. For example, it will read the starters of Plouffe, Escobar, Dozier, Mauer, Suzuki, Park, Rosario, Buxton and Sano. Nothing too complicated about that. Remember it is in pencil (or rather metaphoric chalk) and will be adjusted as guys underperform and other guys over achieve. Santana, Nunez, Vargas, Arcia and Kepler are all good guys to have as depth. They have a similar chart for who is in the rotation and relief staff but just aren't sharing it. I hope the rotation is May, Gibson, Santana, Duffey and Berrios but just because the Twins have Huges and Nolasco instead doesn't mean its jumbled. We just don't know what it is. 30 seconds of searching results in an article saying the Royals are in flux because of Rios and Gordon becoming free agents, closer non tendered, need for relief depth and for a couple more starters in the rotation.

If we don't get that much and it doesn't change moving forward what difference does it make if we move him now or later? If we don't get that much for him now then I am just fine with keeping him. Too early for this? 1. Buxton 2. Mauer 3. Sano 4. Park 5. Plouffe 6. Escobar 7. Dozier 8. Rosario 9. Susuki/Murphy Right now this is better than anything we put out there if Sano does not play outfield, at least until Kepler is up.

Hit the nail on the head there. He is right 50% of the time as opposed to us dumb amateur shmucks who are wrong 50% of the time.

Fortunately, in the first half of the season he was ALL and the 2nd half he was NOTHING. He should be less all or nothing and more all or something. They pitched him away and put a big shift on him and he still tried pulling it all the time. I think he is capable of a lot more.

I never criticized the Nishioka signing and won't criticize this one At least we didn't let go of Hardy because of this signing. :We have some depth in case it doesn't work out. I do hope Sano in the outfield is temporary because I am hoping to see an outfield of Rosario, Buxton and Kepler

I have confidence in all the things you have listed including the ???. Fans want sure things and fantastic plan B's for everything that might fail but its not really how it works. In the Twins case plan B is simply depth. Santana, Kepler, Buxton, Sano, Mauer, Plouffe, Park, Arcia, Vargas to fill 3rd base, 1st base, DH and two outfield spots seems like a reasonable bet. Not really worried about catcher. Platoon to keep guys fresh and low bar for offensive production.

If Buxton starts the year in center then this all works out rather nicely. If Park fails, if Plouffe is traded or if anyone has injury Kepler is hopefully on the near horizon. After next year I am really hoping for a long stretch of Rosario, Buxton and Kepler in the outfield.

Except maybe center field IS his natural position. Speed and a rocket arm. Escobar was considered a utility player who would fail if playing every day instead so far has shown us he is a very mediocre utility player while being quite good as an every day player. Likewise Santana might be best suited to be an outfielder. SSS says he hits well when roaming the outfield and not so much as a short stop. I still like the guy but think outfield or utility is his forte.

Its even better. You would expect an average ranking of those 3 1/3 to be 50 but our 5 comes out to 47. Average for our top 3 comes out to 22. Pretty good considering Sano and Rosario graduated.

its true. If, as many think, Buxton starts in the minors we have Rosario. I am really hopeful of having an outfield by the end of the year of Rosario, Buxton and Kepler and do not want to go backwards in terms of outfield defense. As far as Revere goes, speed plays best in center field regardless of arm. If he has not lost any speed he will get more batters out that advance on his arm. Because of his lack of power I always said he needed to get on base around 35% of the time to be worthwhile whether with hits or walks. He came close last year and as was pointed out did better than any of the current Twins except for Sano. He would be a very good leadoff hitter and I would put Mauer in the #2 spot with Dozier either 3rd or lower in the lineup. Mauer is still the better OBP guy. I don't think it would be a bad move at all given the loss of HIcks, the uncertainty of Buxton and the lack of quality defense among the other candidates.

Not for me. Not going all in does not mean conceding. I believe they are entering a 7 year stretch where they are going to have a better than 1 in 30 chance of winning it all. I will take a 5% chance every year over an 8% chance for two years followed by years of 3%.

I wouldn't give that for Kershaw. You still have to defend and score runs.

Berrios without a doubt. He is not that big and throws pretty hard so would not surprise me to seen surgery in his future also. They somehow scored fewer runs despite all their position players seemingly outproducing ours. They could use power so maybe Plouffe and Berrios or Berrios plus anyone not named Sano or Buxton. Their rotation looked very weak after Fernandez and Harren age 34, so maybe Berrios, Hughes, and Ploouffe. What is messed up about the Twins is that if we didn't have Berrios and wanted him I would not be willing to part with May or Duffey to get him and Gibson and Santana would be iffy as well but I would give up any of the others for him which just tells me the rotation next year should be May, Duffey, Santana, Gibson and Berrios.

"It is easy to write projections off as "guesses" but they are based on a significant amount of historical data." I choose to discount significantly. First off not all ERA's are considered equal. Someone that gives up 4 runs every game for 20 games is going to lose to someone that gives up 3 runs 11 games and 5.22 runs the other 9. The latter kind of defines Gibson and Santana. Secondly, according to these stats the Twins with a mediocre bullpen and average offense should be in the 60 win category. Instead the rotation was smack in the middle in ERA last season and I expect them to get better, not worse. Thirdly, it is based on a significant amount of historical data but how does it fair in historical projections? Last year Milone, Pelfrey and May outperformed their projections by a full run. Santana and Gibson by over half a run and Nolasco and Hughes under performed by a run or more. In other words, none of the projections came within a half a run of the actual results. Now with all the historical data they project Milone, Gibson, May and Duffey to be worse in 2016 than they were in 2015. They expect Nolasco to be as good as Santana. Of course it could happen but anyone want to bet on it?

Just a small word of caution. Yes, if we add Berrios, Buxton, another pitcher like Thorpe or Gonsalves along with Polanco, Burdi and Kepler we can consider the rebuild as pretty much complete. That is not to say success will immediately follow. One could point to the Royals in 2012 and say the rebuild was complete because many of the pieces were in place but they were 72-90 that year. It took them two more years before they made the playoffs and success there notwithstanding it took them another year to be really good. 87 Twins rebuild didn't happen in 86 but the several years before that. It may not happen with this group at all but I am fine with rolling the dice on the chance.

Ok, here's one and I am sure to be mocked like I was in the past. With this latest contract the guy will have made about 40 mil so far in his career not including any endorsements. Yes, he may get injured but is more likely to make a lot more in the future. Maybe he likes Baltimore, likes where his family is, likes his team, wants to stay where he has played his entire major league career and doesn't want to chase every dollar he can. If I had 17 million in the bank (quick check of net worth) with 15 mil more guaranteed I am pretty sure money would no longer be the deciding factor in anything I would do.

I always thought Revere made up for his weak throwing arm by having the speed to turn hits into outs. I don't think his average makes up for his lack of power and always said for him to be a useful leadoff hitter he didn't need to hit .320 but he needed to get on base one way or the other 35% of the time. He came close this year. Denard Span was always considered a good on base guy and he is at .352 for career so I think anything over .350 would be considered good. I don't know how much this tied into Mike's article about adding one power guy being more valuable than one OBP guy but they often are not mutually exclusive. Adam Dunn struck out a ton and had a low BA but got on base .367 of the time. Killebrew was similar. Thome was great at getting on base. Some of this is due to intentional walks but it all has value. I know Park has a lot to adjust to and I expect a lot of strike outs but a lot of strike outs does not mean few walks.

"Willingham, meanwhile, yanked almost every pitch he swung at and did so with authority. He eventually passed the wisdom down to some of the current Twins. As he told Brian Dozier “the fences are a lot closer in left.” Both Dozier and Trevor Plouffe have since passed Willingham for the home run lead at Target Field but each has credited Willingham with the power guidance." This kind of anecdote always bums me out. Willingham had a great natural pull swing but in 2013 he didn't force it. He was very balanced and he always stepped toward the pitcher as Park does on that low outside pitch above. Whether in an effort to pull the ball or by trying to cheat because of injuries to me it looked like Willingham steeped a little left of center and the results dropped dramatically. Its like a long hitter in golf opening up too soon or starting out with shoulders and stance open. The result is less solid contact and less pull...Plouffe is at his best when using all fields and Dozier was exposed in the 2nd half as well. I have nothing against pulling the ball but you should't be going up there trying to pull the ball. I would not want Park to try to pull the ball like I do not want Sano to try to pull the ball. Good balance in their stance and striding toward centerfield is going to work for them and they will pull plenty of balls. I have seen highlights of several of Parks home runs and if those are any indicators he doesn't need to fear any parks dimensions. Are there any stats about how far he hits his home runs on average? If so, how does it compare to Thames?

At least in his league Park has shown he is both. OBP has been over .430 each of the last three years. I have no idea how that translates. I have always been an OBP guy but they don't need to go out to get tthree of them. Dozier needs to use all fields even at the sacrifice of power. Mauer has been elite in OBP category and needs to be more so next year and Buxton, Rosario and Escobar can all make improvements over 2015. Toronto once had 100 more home runs than the Twins but scored fewer runs. That is astounding. This year they led in home runs but also OBP and led the league in runs. Power and OBP are not mutually exclusive. Morneau, Kubel and Thome were all high OBP guys. I expect Sano and Park to be the same.