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Dantes929

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Everything posted by Dantes929

  1. Dantes929
    I actually like ERA and in two of those seasons and most notably the most recent Duffey had the better ERA. I get the age point but this is not about potential. It is about who is best now. Duffey had the better ERA last season at the time of promotion and excelled at the major league level. I don't care if he is 16 or 30 for these purposes. I would not dream of trading Berrios to get Milone but hard to say Milone wasn't a better pitcher than Berrios in 2015. Below 4 ERA in the majors and 4-0 with a .70 ERA and a 15.67 SO/W ratio in AAA. Berrios is all about potential. If I needed to win a game right now there are other guys ahead of him and Duffey is one of them.
  2. Dantes929
    "Though he may be the Twins best pitcher, JO Berrios is likely to begin the season in Rochester while the other four rotation spots work themselves out" I see this a lot but don't really buy into it. I am guessing May is the Twins best pitcher but what evidence is there that Berrios is better than Duffey. Duffey was promoted because he was doing as well or better at the time and he has certainly proved it thus far in the majors. If you are looking at WHIP or strikeout rates in the minors then of course Tommy Milone owns the title. I am excited about seeing Berrios and hope he is as good as the hype but am more excited about Duffey. He has the best curve ball since Blyleven and that might be a compliment to Bert.
  3. Dantes929
    Quibbling a bit but I would be just fine with those numbers to be last or 2nd last or even the third last especially if we carry 13 guys.. On average teams his numbers would make him the 4th or 5th guy in the pen. I think the misconception is that you need 7 shut down guys in the pen and no team has that. You also need those guys that can come in and simply give you innings while keeping you in the game. 3.7 ERA guys have value. I also wish we had a shut down guy but see no reason why one we have won't emerge to be that guy. As far as the list goes people probably get caught up too much on who is on the opening day roster but I get it. I am anxious to see Buxton as well and fans are impatient by nature. People said Escobar was a great utility guy to have but was not an every day guy when the exact opposite has been true so far. Could be the same with Santana. He might actually be a centerfielder. Fast with a rocket arm. If Buxton isn't ready I am comfortable with Danny out there for a while. The one opening day spot I really care about is Dufey. If he shows anything at all in ST I will be mad if he is not in the rotation. He has earned it. I have not given up on Nolasco. :There is not reason to but there needs to be a better reason for him in the rotation than salary.
  4. Dantes929
    This is a good point if trying to perfect 3rd and 4th pitches have stopped him from perfecting any. I am not sure this is the case but am not sure it is not the case. In his 2015 season he would dominate for several starts in a row and then have a stinker or two. I can live with that. To me wildness and inconsistency plays worse out of the bullpen. If you sparkle in the rotation 6 out of 10 starts you will be worthwhile because the average starter has a 50% quality start rate and if you stink you get a quick hook. . If you are a one inning guy and you stink out of the pen 4 out of 10 outings you will not be worthwhile. 2014 makes me think he should be a starter but I don't know what to make of 2015. I suspect that if he can command his fastball he can do anything he wants but if trying to perfect 4 pitches is messing with his head then he needs to simplify. I would give him another shot in AAA as a starter.
  5. Dantes929
    I look at Perkins, May, Jepsen and :Fien and am pretty happy with the top 4 in the pen. Stands to reason that the next 4 will not be quite as good but that doesn't mean putting in any of Meyer, Nolasco, Acter, Tomkin, Berrios, etc. is like putting it on a tee. They, along with the starters, just need to get it to the 7th inning with a chance to win. With the addition of May and Jepsen this will probably be the best bullpen the Twins have had since 2010. Not saying it wouldn't be nice to have another shut down guy but the bottom spots filled by Nolasco and apprentices is not soo out of the ordinary. No player becomes a proven player without first being an unproven rookie.
  6. Dantes929
    If Plouffe is worth 20+M a year, I'm grossly underpaid in my job!. If Plouffe is not worth 20+M a year, I'm grossly underpaid in my job!
  7. Dantes929
    Hit doubles like Mauer and score from second on Sano's homers.
  8. Dantes929
    Quibbling a bit here but Sano is not guaranteed a spot in the outfield barring a Plouffe trade. He is guaranteed a spot in the outfield if he can show that he can play competently out there. Unlike many others here I see no reason that won't happen. He is athletic, pretty fast and confident in himself. If he does fail out there then you consider trading Plouffe. If we can't get much for Plouffe now it doesn't really matter if we can't get much for him later but I don't see how we have painted ourselves in a corner and will get less if we decide to trade him. I am guessing there are more than two teams for which Plouffe would be an upgrade.
  9. Dantes929
    I guess I didn't notice a deficiency in taking the extra bases. I thought they were fairly aggressive and I don't feel like they got thrown out a lot, except for Buxton. Just my own eye test. Plouffe, Susuke, Hunter and Arcia appeared to be pretty slow but Buxton, Rosario, Santana are burners with Escobar, Sano, and Dozier coming in at average or better. Overall, I would say that when we have Buxton and Rosario our team speed is decent but what really hurts is that as a team the Twins don't get on base enough to use what speed they have. Getting thrown out gets magnified when just getting on base is too rare. Mauer and Sano were the only guys that got on base at a decent rate. You can't steal first base.
  10. Dantes929
    Rosario might disagree with your statement about the other teams taking additional bases.
  11. Dantes929
    Based on what exactly? Funny seeing that the other clubs in the central have improved to varying degrees once again. According to preseason reports and analysis of many fans here and on the Trib page since 2002, every single team in the division has gotten better every single year except the Twins who have either done nothing or gotten worse every single year. 6 division titles, 4 lousy seasons and now a 2nd place finish. Probably one of the biggest mysteries in sports history.
  12. Dantes929
    I think the consensus is that we haven't been offered much for Plouffe. I am guessing they can get the "not much in a trade" any time they want to. I don't see how they are painted in a corner by keeping him. If he is rated an average third baseman and I am guessing there are several teams with below average third basemen that would rather have him so any negotiating power is among the teams that want him rather than lost negotiating power because the Twins might not have a spot for him. Therefore, the first question is can Sano play the outfield? I think he is actually quite fast so I think he will but if he cannot then the question is can Park hit? I have no idea but if he can then we think about trading Plouffe. Honestly, if Arcia is working that hard and it can come together I would rather have him batting than Plouffe. I think the idea that Sano willl struggle at the plate because he has to go to the outfield is not giving him much credit. He knows he will be in the lineup and he knows it will be because of his ability to hit. The only logjam is if Sano cannot play the outfield and he, Arcia, Park, Plouffe, and Mauer are all hitting really well. What a disaster that would be.
  13. Dantes929
    I don't recall being all that excited about Nolasco when they signed him but no reason to write him off. There was a reason he was signed and he has had injuries so I see no reason he can't be decent out of the pen. I would hate for him to get a rotation spot over any of the guys named above. All of those guys have earned their spot through performance for the Twins.
  14. Dantes929
    Comeback (Mauer?)
  15. Dantes929
    Of course regression or failure is always a possibility but I never minded that he was promoted before Berrios much like I didn't mind that May was promoted after Pinto last year. Both guys earned the promotion at least in terms of ERA over other guys. I have no problem with promotions based on performance rather than potential. In Duffey's case he has 265 innings in the high minors of being very good. The SSS in the Bigs is just a punctuation mark. No guarantee but a very good sign. His minor league numbers say he was actually kind of wild in the majors. His fastball looked average or better and his curveball was very Blylleven like. He should be penciled in to the rotation with moist lead. The kind that is hard to erase.
  16. Dantes929
    Kind of interesting. Everyone is excited about Berrios and I am as well but what about Duffey? He actually had a better AAA season than Berrios at least in terms of ERA and has better numbers overall at AAA. Plus, after a lousy start was fantastic in the late season pennant race. Santana was quite good after a slow start also. Why isn't there more excitement about Duffey? He has the stuff and a better physical build than Berrios but still seems like an afterthought. I am very excited at the prospect of him for a whole year. In fact, he is the main reason I am not more bummed that May probably won't get a chance in the rotation.
  17. Dantes929
    I thought of Thorpe right away also but kind of thought he already had a breakout year. Since he had the surgery at the beginning of last year I am hoping to see results a bit earlier.
  18. Dantes929
    Its a few years away from happening so not worried about it. I really didn't like the way Dozier looked the second half last year so maybe Polanco will be the guy the others have to beat out. BTW, I assume Gordon is slated as the leadoff hitter of the future so I don't care if he adds power or not. He needs to get on base.
  19. Dantes929
    I am a little middle of the road on this. Santana regressing was easy to figure much like Valencia was back in the day (so far beyond their minor league numbers) but I don't just assume guys that have success will be unable to maintain it much like I don't assume that Mauer will continue to struggle or that Dozier won't be able to adjust and get on base more. I am an optimist. Buxton may very well continue to struggle but I can also certainly imagine him putting in a lot of work in the off season and maybe getting off to a fast start will get him some confidence and get him to sustainable success quicker than people think. I have seen slow starts from him at each level and quick learning. Who knows? I just want him to get off to a quick start so he can perform without the stress that a slow starts produces. Natural vs pressing. As far as the rest of the team goes I am always optimistic guys can have good years but if everyone produces like above and given the unearned runs and bench production of last year I figure they would finish at 765 runs which would have put them in 2nd place of all baseball last year. That just seems a little too optimistic even for me. One thing people also have to remember is that acceptable stats nowadays are not the same as they were 10 years ago. AVERAGE runs per major league team is down about 100 runs from a decade ago. Subtract 6 RBI per player and the peripheral stats that go with it from the above estimates and the Twins will still score more than average and likely in the top 10. I would be very happy with top 10.
  20. Dantes929
    Incredibly optimistic on the OBP for most guys. Sano and Mauer were the only guys to beat .309 last year. Now you think everyone but Rosario beats it. Funny that I think Rosario might be one of the guys that does beat it. As Jimmer stated above, if Mauer comes anywhere close to old form (and probably even if he doesn't) you want him batting 2nd ahead of Sano. Last season Mauer counted for twice as many of Sano RBI as any other guy.
  21. Dantes929
    Hard to tell for me but I think 11 of Sano's first 13 homers were with guys on base. He drove in Mauer 12 times and I think most of them were on home runs. Underscores the need to have guys on base in front of him. Looking at the OBP stats for 2015 is kind of depressing. Mauer was way down at .338 but still led everyone but Sano. Mauer and Dozier need to get on base more. Simple as that. Or Buxton needs to become the leadoff hitter we think he can be and Dozier moves down the lineup.
  22. Dantes929
    I have always liked Dozier but in the minors he hit .298 with a .370 OBP. His last year in high minors he hit .320 with a .399 OBP. I don't doubt that he can still pull some home runs on the outer half but I don't want that to be his goal. It seemed the vast majority of his home runs were up and middle in. I just think he can be a more complete and valuable lead off hitter if he uses all fields. I would gladly sacrifice a little power for a rise in OBP. From Morneau to Cuddyer to Valencia, to Young to Kubel to Mauer to Willingham I have never liked when it appears they have tried to pull the ball. They have all been most effective when stepping toward the pitcher and letting the natural pull work for them. Dozier is talented enough to turn on inside pitches while still taking what the pitchers give him on the outside, imo. Same goes for Sano. Pull middle in and either go the other way or up the middle with outer half or let it go.
  23. Dantes929
    I am not against power by any means. In fact, I love when our team hits 3 run homers. Problem with hitting 3 run homers is that you need 2 guys on base for it to happen. For all Mauer's detractors, much of which is justified based on his performance it seemed like many of Sano's homers had Mauer on base in front of him. As alluded to above it would be nice if Dozier were on base as well. (or Buxton, or Mauer more often)
  24. Dantes929
    its also worth noting that the Twins were 11th in scoring in 2015 while ranking 16th in homers. They were 7th in scoring in 2014 while ranking 19th in homers. Twins once outscored Toronto despite hitting 100 fewer home runs. More home runs don't equate to more runs. Its interesting to me that there has been a big deal made about KC and their pitching and how everyone thinks that is the new model that teams should strive for but no mention is made (I also believe their great defense is overlooked but that is a different conversation) about their formula for offense.. Everyone talks about the necessity for having strikeout pitchers while ignoring the fact that KC also won the WS by being the toughest team to strikeout. To sum up everyone wants strike out pitchers and power offenses saying that it the necessary combination to win in the playoffs while KC won it all by refusing to strikeout against strikeout pitchers and scoring without hitting a lot of homers. They have been the hardest to strike out two years in row and been 24th and 30th in home run and have gotten to the WS twice and yet no one is modeling their offense after KC.
  25. Dantes929
    I buy into all of it except for Dozier. I really think it wasn't just him tiring out but also him trying to pull the ball at all costs and the pitchers trying to prevent him from pulling the ball at all costs. He has power but I do not think he will hit for those totals again and should not be trying to. He needs to hit the other way and get on base way more often. If he does that they will shift him differently and pitch him differently.
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