Dantes929

If we trot out the right guys I am fine with the talent though would not go so far as to say very good. I think the disconnect is what people consider to be the 5th starter. As pointed out earlier there are a lot of teams where Milone's performance would have been closer to a 3 including a few playoff teams. If the previous poster was correct in saying the AVERAGE ERA for a starter was 4.11/ That means there are A LOT of guys that are on the wrong side of 4.11 and by a fair amount. Milone settles in quite nicely as a league average #3 guy. Duffey and Gibson did better than him and we consider Santana and May and maybe Hughes to be better and of course Nolasco wasn't signed because he was thought of as a #5 talent. If Milone ends up being the #5 guy it means we have a very good #5 guy. If we have 5 #3 guys then that will be average. If we have 2 #2 guys along with 3 #3 guys then we will have a much better than average staff. I can imagine that with this group of guys and yes I can imagine it better with May in the rotation. I like your take on slotting but our weakness was in the #1 and #2 spots. Our strength should be in our #3-5 spots.

The reason it works is what is lost in all of these conversations. Milone knows how to pitch. He does it with good control but also good stuff even though it doesn't involve high velocity. The problem here is that people think all 89mph pitchers are the same. They are most definitely not. Here is my hierarchy. 1. Guys with great stuff including velocity that know how to pitch. 2. Guys with great stuff without velocity that know how to pitch. 3. Guys with great stuff including veloicty. 4. Guys with stuff without velocity. 5. Guys with just great velocity. Huge qualifier is what I said before. No pitchers are alike which means that there are lots of variations within these categories.

Of course if Milone loses MPH or feel for a pitch things can go bad but that is not unique. As of last year Hughes had lost MPH and who knows if it will come back. One thing I noticed about Milone and I think the pitch tracking would back me up is that he got pinched by the umps more than any other pitcher on the staff. It was to his credit that he still put up the numbers he did but if he got a little respect on the corners he could be even better.

This has devolved into a Milone vs May discussion and imo it shouldn't be. If anything it should be about Milone vs Nolasco and Hughes and I think Milone has shown over his career and last season that it should be him over the other two. Then the discussion should be about Nolasco vs Hughes vs May. I don't know why Nolasco or Hughes should be ineffective as relievers. .

IF we can turn Milone for an above average reliever and put May in the rotation I am all for it. No where have I seen that Milone is a lock for the rotation and that is kind of the point of the blog in the first place. Also, if I had my druthers Milone would be a starter but with Hughes and Nolasco as the odd men out rather than May.. Lastly, I see the appeal of lights out relief staff and if you can get them fine but for the most point I don't demand strikeouts from relief pitchers. There are occasions where a strikeout is really nice but I like double plays also and if a guy can give up 2.5 runs/9 with a 5 SO/9 I prefer that over a guy with a 3 ERA that strikes out 10/9. Ground outs and fly outs and holding guys on are important also. I am not suggesting that Milone is an ideal bullpen guy but think Craig Breslow who had some real value.

First of all, the math. If you have 5 pitchers in the rotation the average is likely the #3. If the league average starter has 4.11 ERA doesn't that make MIlone with his 3.92 ERA better than average and thus slightly better than a #3? Ok, you say that might be true but he wouldn't start on a playoff team. A quick check of WS champion KC ERA's puts Milone at #3 on their staff even without the benefit of the great KC defense. #4 with the Mets, #5 with the Cubs, #5 with the Pirates. #5 with the Dodgers. #3 with the Rangers, #5 with the Astros #5 with the Blue Jays and #3 with the Yankees. But no one wants him in the Twins rotation? He would not be the ideal starter in a playoff game but if you told me the Twins will make the playoffs and Milone will start one game every series I would be just fine with that. I enjoy watching Milone because he pitches rather than just throws. In fact I never particularly liked watching Hughes pitch because it was monotonous. Once his velocity dipped and he couldn't get by with throwing his cutter most of the time I enjoyed watching him more because he seemed to become a pitcher rather than a thrower. He did much better once he changed speeds, pitches and locations. My ideal rotation would be Santana, May, Gibson, Duffey and Milone. If May is in the bullpen that makes me want Milone in there even more. If Milone has a sub 4.00 ERA and Berrios forces him out then that means we have a really good staff. Hughes and Nolasco in the pen and providing rotation depth. If you have an entire team of players that slightly outperform the average at their position as Milone has done then you probably have a playoff team.

I have no problem going in with a rotation of Santana, Gibson, Duffey, Hughes and Milone. Honestly, if I had my druthers it would probably be May for Hughes rather than May for Milone because Hughes would probably be all right out of the pen. The rotation has been bad but for every year of his career Milone would have been the #2 pitcher on our staff with his ERA except for 2012 when he would be #3. You can call him a back of the rotation pitcher if you want to but he hasn't been the back of our rotation starter. I will be thrilled if he pitches the whole season with his career ERA of 3.97 and shows up on baseball reference as our 5th best pitcher. That means we will have had 4 better ERA's. I don't think I have ever discounted him. He can beat anyone because he has stuff and command. I hate when fans heap all softer throwers together. The guy has proven he can pitch sub 4 ERA over 106 starts That is not such a small sample size. 87 Twins would have been thrilled to have him.

Is it fair to point out that Moore took over the Royals in 2006 and for the next 7 years AVERAGED over 93 losses a year? I am not so much about defending Ryan as just being fair. Twins averaged 93 losses for three seasons since Ryan took over and now have a winning one under their belt with a lot of potential going forward. I don't like everything he did but take a look at predictions for the Royals the last three years. Sometimes you just get lucky and things come together and players play as well or better than you think they will. What I don't really care for about the Twins are giving extensions when players are hot and I didn't care for all of their pitching signings. I believe part of it was the fans demand to spend money but lets not kid ourselves. Nolasco was a disaster because he has been terrible. If he pitched great and Hughes had pitched great and we make the playoffs and got hot then Ryan would be the genius. That is what I was talking about luck. Players perform and GMs and managers look like wizards. Kelly and McPhail didn't know an aging Morris would rebound with 18 wins, 23 year old Erickson would get 20 wins and Knoblach would get rookie of the year. If all three had years like Hicks and Nolasco we would be talking about that 91 team that went .500 if we talked about them at all.

Its a higher bar than you might imagine. Very few people agree with me. But no, its not the only requirement. I'm not that superficial. Looks and wealth factor in as well.

He agrees with me. Of course I respect him.

That cat has already been skinned and is irrelevant. Would he have a spot on 2016 Royals postseason rotation? Very likely. Would he have a spot on the 2016 Mets postseason rotation? That is what we are talking about. If you think his ceiling is that or not. I think it is.

Not all pitchers are created equal. Some have an arsenal that plays really well for an inning or two but would not hold up through 6 or 7. 200 quality innings means less wear and tear on the pen. Quality starts means more high leverage situations that would not exist given a poor start which is a good thing. Quality starts also means fewer high leverage situations because of a lead that would not exist with poor starts. Also a good thing. I don't know who John Stickels is but he predicts all star performance for May in the rotation. If he didn't have this kind of perceived upside no one would be making the case for taking May out of the pen. The Mets got to the WS by having a great rotation. The Royals got there with a great relief staff. Lets not get too carried away with the result of a 7 game series. There is more than one way to skin a cat (not sure what those ways are or why you want to skin a cat but trust me its a saying). There aren't many Wade Davis's around and I don't know that May has that kind of potential as a reliever. Likewise I am not sure Davis could do what I think May can do as a starter.

SSS on May. I would look to his minor league stats in his last year to get a better idea of QS. I also look a little deeper at his major league career because it was pretty obvious he was either too nervous or too pumped to start his career. Broken down his QSs numbers were 3 for his first 16 games and 6 for his last 9. :Swarzak was ok but he wasn't going to continue at 73% whereas I do believe if given a full season May can do much better than league and team average.

Murphy is not considered to be a downgrade in defense. The infield remains intact except that Escobar will likely play more at short which will be a slight upgrade over Santana as well. Outfield has potential for being bad but why assume it will be a downgrade? Buxton would be a tick above Hicks at least and if Sano can catch fly balls this could easily be an upgrade over Hunter rather than a step back. Net result = better defense. I might be wrong but I am not assuming it. Its not like Hunter was great defensively and I haven't read anywhere that Hicks was better than Buxton.

First of all, if May is in the pen and Perkins is healthy then having Jepsen and May for an entire year makes this a vastly improved pen compared to Boyer and Fien since the rest of the pen should not be hard to replicate. Please tell me how I am wrong here so we can move on. I'm not saying another arm wouldn't be nice but Jepsen plus May are way better than Boyer, Fien. How is this not an improvement? Sano may regress but we will have him for an entire year and I am betting Buxton year two will be much better than last year and better than HIcks. Park may or may not be better. A full year of Santana and Duffey on the mound with a possibility of Berrios should be an upgrade over 2015 as well so why is there such pessimism? Every year for the last 16 years I am pretty sure without exception I have read about how the Twins have been left in the dust by the other teams in the off season. Go read last year's archives about how the Twins would lose 100 games because the Central was going to be the best division in baseball. Go to the Tribune archives for the 2002-2010 lamentations about how the Twins were going to be left behind because of all the moves that the other teams were making. I am guessing somewhere on a Royals fan page there are fans lamenting the young talent of the Twins and how they acquired a great slugger in Park. I am not going to get too uptight about it. Twins will be fine. How many here predicted Chicago and Detroit to be the top teams last year? Answer. A lot. Way more than said the Royals and Twins. Way more.

Yes. Off topic but I liked the idea that politicians should wear NASCAR style jackets that show their biggest contributors logos so we know who paid for them. This idea has the same kind of logical transparency.

Ok, I may be wrong here but I am almost positive the Mauers have a home on Sunfish lake here in Minnesota. I am also guessing that most people with 9 digits in assets would have more than one house and I am also guessing they would not have them all in one state. The idea that he has one in Florida makes complete sense both to get away from the cold and because that is where the Twins have Spring Training. As far as legal residence goes it is really just a nuance. I don't believe he avoids Minnesota tax since I believe players are taxed on how much they make at each site they play. I am guessing major league players file a dozen or more state income tax returns but of course Mauer makes a lot more than just his playing salary and thus save some in state income tax. Who cares?

What made Santana such a regression candidate was that his 2014 major league season so far outperformed his minor league history. I agree that Duffey is a regression candidate but he would basically be replacing Pelfrey who might have been a regression candidate himself. Santana for a full year and Duffey replacing Pelfrey is a good bet for improvement, IMO.

Since he listed anecdotal evidence of 250 lbers that have failed I thought I would add to the list. Though listed at 215 lbs in baseball reference it is considered by many that Babe Ruth was over 250 for much of his career. Hard to argue that his best defensive position wasn't pitcher and yet not only did they move him to the outfield they also played him in left or right depending on how which side would have the sun in his eyes. This move obviously wore him out and destroyed his career. We are left wondering what could have been had he been handled properly. Ok, seriously, anyone watching Sano get down the line before his hamstring injury would conclude that he is much faster than Mauer and likely faster than Cuddyer even in his prime and likely faster than any of the guys on the list of 250lb outfielders. As far as wearing down can someone please explain how standing in the outfield is more physically demanding than crouching at 3rd base or 1st base. He hurt his hamstring running to first base which I would think make many of you conclude he should never run out ground balls or try to take extra bases. My opinion is that playing the outfield will keep him loose which will make running the bases less likely to injure him. I have played 3rd base 1st base and outfield in my life and consider the outfield the least taxing physically and mentally. I have not seen anyone make a good case that 3rd base or 1st base is more his natural position than the outfield at this point in his life. Its not like he is Brooks Robinson over there. In conclusion the only thing that makes this move bad is one simple thing not related to weight, speed, injury or "natural position" and that is "Can he catch fly balls?"

Stating blatantly obvious truths wouldn't be needed but what makes this a blatantly obvious truth? Average is underrated. If a team is made up of mostly average players and have just a couple that are above average then the team will be above average. Specifically if Milone is an average starter then statistically that equates to a #3. There is no reason to think that Sano will fail as a right fielder and if you think the risk of injury is too great then you might as well just tell him not to run out ground balls either because the risk is probably much greater there. The guy started as a shortstop and I am guessing is faster than Arcia, Hunter, Willingham and just as fast as many others on the roster. The question about whether he can catch a ball will be answered soon enough.

That is the crux of it all and if that is the Twins viewpoint as well then it is defensible. If the decision is made on those merits I am fine with it. If they are doing it because they are paying Noalsco a lot of money then I am less fine with it. I personally think May would be our best starter, at least in terms of most quality starts. Its just an opinion and I have been wrong before and if May is stuck in the pen we will never know.

This was a discussion point with Chief on another board. If you think he is a #4 starter then the bullpen is a very obvious choice. That is not the ceiling I see on him at all. If I had to qualify it I would expect him to be a #2 and don't know his ceiling. The big rip on him was always his command, not his stuff. Now he has made command a strength instead of a weakness. I discount his final starts in 2014 and his first ones in 2015 to nerves and confidence. He looks like he is in control now and I think what he showed in his last 9 starts and his bullpen stats as what we can look for in the future. He has command and stuff which I think would result in much closer to a 3 ERA. I don't know what that makes him in peoples's mind as far as a # of starter. I just know a 3 ERA is almost a run better than anything we have had in quite a while. While I understand May can be an asset in the bullpen and will be disappointed if he doesn't start I won't be mad about it. If Duffey pitches well in ST and is not in the rotation, then I will be mad. He earned his shot in the minors and was the best starter down the stretch last year. This should make him the guy that has a spot to lose rather than be the guy that has to prove himself over others. If May is in the pen the pecking order should be Santana, Gibson, Duffey, Milone, Hughes, Berrios and Nolasco. The first three should be written in ink. Milone and Hughes can be switched and Berrios and Nolasco can be switched but Duffey should be in there til he proves he shouldn't be.

Darnell would probably be just as good as Rogers and I am not a big we need a lefty just to get one out every other game either and Berrios probably won't start the year in the rotation and as was pointed out by dman Hughes and Nolasco in the pen isn't a very good bet either. This isn't my prediction of what the Twins would do but just pointing out that the cupboard isn't bare. It is pretty close to what I would have penciled in even though I don't like May out of the rotation. I have no problem with rookies taking some spots. They have to start somewhere and I just want the talent to start falling into place. IMO May, Duffey, Gibson, Santana and probably Milone have earned a spot in the rotation and Berrios has earned a shot to pitch with the Twins. I am not down on Hughes or Nolasco but don't want them given the spot based on pre 2015 years or on how much they are paid. They can be assets in the pen.

I am hoping May starts but if he doesn't then we are talking Jepsen, May and Perkins. IMO a lot depends on Perkins but if he is good that makes a pretty good three inning group. Maybe not Wade Davis good but good nonetheless. Rotation of Santana, Gibson, Duffey, Berrios and MIlone with a pen of Jepsen, May, Perkins, Hughes, Nolasco, Rogers and Burdi. Looks to me like an improvement in the rotation and the pen over last year. Adding Park, Buxton, Sano and Murphy looks like a likely improvement to the offense and slight improvement to the defense. Now I don't like that we have 8 likely candidates for the rotation and that my favorite (May) is probably going to be an odd man out but I don;t think it is unreasonable that the three that don't make the cut will make serviceable depth for the pen. I think this is reasonable. I am an optimist. Some one can poke holes in this analysis and be reasonable also. :That's baseball.

I think Hicks has more upside than Murphy but Hicks is not better than :Rosario and does not have the upside of Buxton, Kepler, Park or Sano. Hicks has done very little at the minor or major league level that says he can hit left handed which makes him a platoon player. IMO a very good platoon player that could have paired with Arcia with excellent results but that probably wasn't going to happen so I am not going to cry over it.