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Dantes929

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Everything posted by Dantes929

  1. Dantes929
    I wish people would get over this whole velocity thing. It is stuff that matters and not all guys throwing 88-91 mph are created equal. Velocity is an element of "stuff" but command, movement, change of speeds and break are all part just as big a part. 90 MPH is plenty fast if the other elements are there. I would love a guy that throws 97 with all the other elements but guys that throw 97 are not all created equal either and that guy that has it all is pretty rare.
  2. Dantes929
    I like the idea but also like the idea of the best pitchers pitching the most innings. If Hughes and Nolasco are among the best 12 pitchers then they should be on the team but I would also hope that salary considerations alone don't put them in the rotation. May, Berrios, Duffy, Gibson and Santana with Nolasco, Hughes, Milone, Jepsen and Perkins would be fine with me. I only want to be rid of Noalsco because I am afraid salary considerations will give him preference. I remember defending Liriano when people criticized him and wanted him gone because he didn't fit their definition of an ace. I said forget about him being an ace and confine your judgment to whether or not he is one of the 5 best starters or could be one fo the best 7 in the pen. Likewise with Nolasco. I don't care if he doesn't earn the contract. If he is useful as a relief guy then great. If he hates it and demands a trade that is all right also. If he actually earns a spot in the rotation that is all right also. If they give it to him because they are paying him a lot of money, then not so great.
  3. Dantes929
    How about 4 time champ first? Even though Sano missed a full season it is impressive that Kepler has made it this far this fast. Very anxious to see what he brings to the plate.
  4. Dantes929
    I would not write off Milone off after two lousy starts. He deserves to go out there at least one more time. I really, really hope the 2016 rotation you list of Santana, Duffey, May, Gibson and Berrios is what we see for a good chunk of the year. It appears to have the potential of pretty awesome.
  5. Dantes929

    10-3

    Dantes929 replied to DaveW's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk

    I gave them 10% chance at the start of the year. Their odds from this point seem to be at least twice that. Baseball prospectus doesn't agree with either of us. They are currently at 5.5% with Cleveland, Angels and Astros ahead of us. Surprising that the Indians are better odds when they are still behind us. Doesn't really bother me since a week ago the Twins were at 33%. It just shows what a week can do to the odds. I think if they knew the Twins would go 8-5 their odds would go up to about 35%. Like I said I would bank 8-5 right now if I could.
  6. Dantes929

    10-3

    Dantes929 replied to DaveW's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk

    Not sure why 5 of the wins have to come from the Indians. If they only won 3 they would still be ahead of the Indians and it would mean they go 5-1 in their other games while the Indians would have to sweep their other games. If the Twins go 8-5 Angels would have to go 8-5 to keep pace and the Astros would have to go 5-7. I would bank 8-5 right now as long as at least 3 come against the Indians. The odds on that scenario are not good but not horrible even given the position they are in and probably the most likely thing to happen for them to make the playoffs all things considered. . Its like the old Steve Martin bit. How do you make a million dollars and not pay taxes? Well, first make a million dollars. How do the Twins go 8-5 and make the playoffs? First go 8-5. I can even see 7-6 doing the trick though maybe then it would be akin to Halsey Hall going 2 under assuming he is a 4 handicap golfer. . I remember in 2006 everyone saying the Twins absolutely had to sweep their last series to even have a remote chance at the division title because the Tigers were playing 100 loss KC at home. Twins went 1-2 and the Tigers got swept. Anything that happens for the Twins to make the playoffs this year is probably more likely than what happened that year.
  7. Dantes929
    I considered both of those facts to be problems but not huge problems for the 2015 team. In fact, while he was hitting well Hunter was a great asset. Funny how his leadership was considered so valuable when he was hitting well and not so much the rest of the time. I was ok with the signing last year because I thought he would still be an upgrade over what Willingham gave us in 2014 but I wasn't thrilled with it. I would be less ok and less thrilled with it now that we have some confidence in Rosario and Hicks so that Hunter truly would be blocking the likes of Buxton or Kepler.
  8. Dantes929
    See, I used to be naive like this. In theory there was no reason in the world to not give Kubel or Bartlett a chance. If they do well in ST and then are successful in the minors and earn their way to the Twins this is a no lose situation. No promises and no expectations. Instead though these two did little in ST and were automatically given playing time with the Twins and this wasn't the first time it has happened but the last time I am fooled by it. Again, in theory, no promises and no expectations is very reasonable. The reality is quite different.
  9. Dantes929
    Sacrifice was not done in order to score Robinson on a base hit but on a wild pitch, infield grounder or mainly a sacrifice fly. Again if any of these things happen no one comments on what a mistake it was to have Buxton bunt. On the other hand if Buxton swings away and makes an out without advancing the runner and the next guy hits a deep fly ball I promise there would be posts saying what a lousy move it was not to have Buxton bunt. My general rule of thumb is to respect a post criticizing a move that the poster thinks was dumb even though it worked out or praising a move that the poster thinks was smart but didn't work out. Needless to say I don't read a whole lot of either of those.
  10. Dantes929
    I have read these and other boards enough to know it would be about 70 pages much like every other manager's would be a page for every loss.. No one questions the moves when Jepsen has a clean inning or Mauer (or Santana or whoever) gets a game winning base hit.
  11. Dantes929
    I certainly don't think it has anything to do with physical conditioning but that doesn't mean a day off here and there wouldn't help mentally. Just like the all star break often seems to break momentum either good or bad I think a couple games off in a row might give him a fresh start. Its not like putting Nunez out there would be a step down the way Dozier has been playing. All these guys should be thinking hit it up the middle and then let pitch location dictate where it is hit. He will still pull the ball a lot because that is his swing but it shouldn't be his goal..
  12. Dantes929
    It mitigates the disparity among the divisions a little bit. In 1987 the Twins were one of the two teams in the American League playoffs despite having the 5th best record. Great for us but not so great for teams 2, 3, and 4.
  13. Dantes929
    I will never understand why a pitcher or a batter just gets inserted into the lineup after a month off. The rotation has been just fine of late but they pay Hughes a lot of money so they need to put him in there? Put him in the pen. See how he does there for a week in lower leverage situations and then see how he does. Duffey's arm is just fine as evidenced by how well he has thrown. Stop making such a big thing about innings. As Bert says, his arm hasn't fallen off and won't fall off. I am guessing he is more likely to hurt his arm in the first two months of next season than he is the last month of this season. I don't have any evidence to back up this statement but I doubt there is any to refute it. Arbitrary innings limits are just that. Arbitrary.
  14. Dantes929
    Yes, Dozier should bunt as should Hicks, Mauer, Buxton, and anyone else who has the odds shifted in their favor by either slumping swinging away or having a shift against them which makes bunting a statistically good option. Though for some reason I like watching :Santana play and do not like watching Escobar, Eduardo has absolutely earned the SS spot. What about anything they have done makes people think Santana has more potential or that Escobar would do better by playing less? Their minor league stats are not far apart and Escobar has done really well when playing full time and has played like a utility player when playing as a utility player. Twins OBP is 20 points lower than last year. As bad as Mauer has been he still gets on base 34 points higher than the team average and so his value is higher than it might be if anyone else was getting on base. This team already has more homers than last year but is on pace to score 16 fewer runs. OBP is just too important. For those that say we hit more homers and have a better record the reason e have better record is run prevention. We are on pace to give up 71 fewer runs than last year. The rest is either statistical anomaly or the intangibles of baseball since the Pyth shows we should have had 5 more wins in 2014 and 4 fewer this year.
  15. Dantes929
    You can easily put Nunez and Escobar in the middle and give Dozier a break if needed. Nunez has had a much better year than Dozier's 2nd half.so statistically he should be in there full time and Dozier relegated to utility status. I am not endorsing this but the idea that we can't sit a struggling player has hurt us in the past and just goes against all logic.. In 2008 we may have lost the division because Morneau played 163 games plus the all star game plus the home run derby. Ended up batting .171 the last 16 games of the season. I've never cared for the idea that stars play better than replacement when hurt or fatigued and in Dozier's case, his whole 2nd half is pretty bad. A breather at the very minimum is in order.
  16. Dantes929
    Minnesota (- games with New York) 72-63. or better yet - games with New York and Toronto 70-58 Not really going anywhere with this.
  17. Dantes929
    Not really what I said and in fact very much not what I said.. I like the move. He has done great. Maybe May would have been 7 for 7 in save opportunities and not blown the latest game and we actually are a game better. That is very unlikely but do you think we would have blown all 7 of those games? If we just blow 2 of those and there is no other impact that means Jepsen's very real WAR is 2 which statistically is an awful lot in 7 games. That would now put us at 3 games out of the wild card race. Is that out of reach? Pretty sad if you think it is. That was my only point. Jepsen has been very good but statistically it is unlikely he has been worth 7 games just because he has 7 saves. I never said anything to detract from his performance but to question the idea that we would be out of the race without him.
  18. Dantes929
    Without doing too much (any) research I would say this is spot on. A little spoiled by AJ and Mauer and while we complained ad nauseum about Butera he did land on a couple playoff teams which suggests that nearly everyone has issues with depth. If Perez went down Butera is who KC would be left with. I was fine with :Butera as a backup catcher but until I hear a clamoring of posters saying they wish we had Butera I am also not going to stress about :Ryan not having a plan B. What exactly is wrong with Hermann's catching. His arm is decent and he works hard. This all smacks of people saying Gardy shouldn't have played Punto or Tyner when those were his best options or saying Mauer should have been batting 7th (better case for that this year) when he was still leading the team in hitting and OPB so in other words there were not 6 better hitters to go ahead of him. . I want a better catcher. I can't tell you who that is or what it would take to get him so I am not going to complain about it.
  19. Dantes929
    Just guessing I could take every series loser in history and point all the moves that should have been made because hindsight is 20/20.
  20. Dantes929
    That is an interesting and probably pretty accurate take. I think he did a decent job in the early years but thought his worst year managing was his Manager of the Year season in 2010 Probably his most talented team but the moves that were forced on him due to injury (Valencia for Punto) were moves he should have made anyway but would not have but for the injuries. These moves worked out so writers said "Hey, Gardy had to deal with all those injures and still won the division." It really wasn't to his credit.
  21. Dantes929
    Managers make a lot of good moves that backfire and a lot of bad moves that work out. When they were winning all those division races Gardy did some good things but by and large I gave him very little credit so have no problem giving him little blame in the playoffs and the losing seasons but am just fine with seeing the last of him.
  22. Dantes929
    Yeah, its like all of a sudden in the playoffs he would put Joe Nathan in there at the end to protect a lead. A good playoff manager would not have put their all star closer in a situation like that. Its fine for the regular season but in the playoffs you need to find a different way to hold the lead. Sorry for the snark. I was not sorry to see Gardy go but would have been just fine with our chances if we had continued to get into the playoffs. The Twins were not the better team but eventually the team would have won some games or series. The players won the regular season games and they lost the playoff series. Managers have less impact than you think, IMO.
  23. Dantes929
    That point has little foundation. Some games someone else may have stepped up. Some games someone else may have failed and we still win. Maybe with the different group we lose a couple but win a couple others. I love that he is dong well and appears to be a significant asset but I am skeptical that his absence would have put us out of the race. You just never know. It is a move that has worked out well so far and should be to Ryan's credit.
  24. Dantes929
    I am ok with shopping anyone but do not see the urgency in deciding this offseason who the odd man is. I am fine with keeping them all.
  25. Dantes929
    First of all lets cut way more slack for Buxton. He has extremely quick hands without loading at all. Reminds me of Molitor in that regard. He has struggled to start at other levels as well. I don't know if Rosario is the real deal offensively. I don't expect this to happen but a platoon of Hicks and Rosario might be the best option. Who knows? Add Kepler and Arcia to the mix and the Twins have a lot of options and hopefully excitement for their future outfield.
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