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Dantes929

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Everything posted by Dantes929

  1. Dantes929
    I think Robbie is underrated. He has a .371 OBP on a team that was starved for OBP in 2016 and was a big reason the Twins were 3rd in the AL in 2017. I've known guys that can arrive at a gym and start playing basketball at a high level and others that need 20 minutes of stretching. Everyone is different. Morneau had some horrible ST years and apparently needed the reps because he did quite well to start those seasons and others hit right from the get go. Maybe Grossman faces Hunter Greene every day pitching from 50 feet during the off season. I suspect his days as a Twin are numbered but I think he has been a really good player for us.
  2. Dantes929
    Not sure I understand this. Don't they do this all the time? Earlier this year they cleared two or three spots that they soon filled. If it was a trade the same logic applies as a free agent signing. If they had already made a trade, they'd just say so. Except they often don't. They often clear the space and then days later make or announce the corresponding move. Good marketing move. Stretches out the drama. Hoping its Cobb instead of Napoli. Actually, really just hoping its not Napoli.
  3. Dantes929
    "Upon being selected first overall last June, he stashed his $6.7 million signing bonus in a trust fund, opting to live off his modest minor-league wage and foregoing the typical flashy celebratory splurge." Probably more like 3.7 million after taxes but on the surface of it he's either a smart kid or has some smart advisors. Not only is he set for life he can still say "Sorry, I can't pick up this check cuz I don't have access to the money."
  4. Dantes929
    I hope he's twice as good!
  5. Dantes929
    According to this issue age 24 is about when it started being an issue. He had such a great swing but he tinkered a lot with various batting stances and became a little pull happy when Reggie said he should be pulling the ball.. He lived the way he wanted and was certainly a great player. With different habits, conditioning and using all the fields I think he could have been one of the games greats rather than one of the Twins greats. Another guy that fell in love with moon shots. Awesome to watch but I think he could have hit more 350-400 ft home runs if he didn't try to hit 400-500 foot ones all the time. http://www.startribune.com/twinscentric-one-for-the-fat-boys/188360691/
  6. Dantes929
    Someone explain to me how Sano playing so so at 3rd or at 1st increases his value significantly. I guess it might keep us from getting a guy like Thome to come in and DH but how many of those are around. Aside from Thome, it feels like we have complained about the DH production for years. Makes a lot more sense for a decent fielding ok hitting third base man and Sano at DH than it does to have Sano at 3rd paired with an ok hitting DH. I like having a big guy like Sano in the line up but having two big lumbering guys like Sano and Vargas does not appeal quite so much. Besides which Escobar kind of deserves a shot after the season he had. Him at 3rd base with Sano DH seems better than Sano at 3rd and Gorssman DH.
  7. Dantes929
    Weight and conditioning part is a bit reminiscent of Hrbek. I remember it being a pretty much annual issue with how much weight he put on. He was a great player and shoe in for Twins HOFer, but I think with different habits his ceiling was baseball HOF. Sano has a different ceiling also if he can't control his weight and condition. i don't think being an ok 3rd baseman or a mediocre 1st baseman adds that much value. Let him DH because it is his bat that plays.
  8. Dantes929
    You generally have to pay premium prices for free agents so the dollar value should be held to a little different standard. Everyone is so fixated on the top of the rotation. To me, if they think Cobb can come in with a 4.00 ERA or even slightly better for 4 years that is worth a lot because over the last 7 years the ERA average of our 5th best starter has been closer to 6. Playoffs can take care of itself. I want to actually get there and you can increase your odds by improving the bottom also.
  9. Dantes929
    Please, explain how he was terrible last year. 4.14 ERA last year would put him very solidly at our number three. How is this not a great get? We basically have the same team as last year but better relievers and a better starter than all but two of our last year's starters. I was hoping for Cobb but this appears to be a solid improvement. Twins don't get better by picking up all stars at every position. They get better by improving at multiple positions either by acquiring guys or having guys already here do better. Sanchez, I don't get. This one looks good. I've got to believe he is better than the Colon, Santiago, Turley, etc. guys we were running out there for the 4th and 5th spots last year.
  10. Dantes929
    Tommy Milone wasn't so horrible such that an improved version would be so bad. Milone mixed speeds well which is more effective when you have a higher top speed. Hoping more for David Wells 2.0. I kind of like big loopy curve balls as long as they are more vertical than horizontal. I can't wait to see him with the Twins.
  11. Dantes929
    Except he outperformed the college pitchers on his own team as well. I guess what I don't buy is that over time if two pitchers have the same % of balls put into play they will have the same results. He did have good defense behind him but had enough stuff and enough control that the batters just never seemed to square the ball up. I have never considered pitch to contact a bad philosophy but there is pitch to contact that allows your defense to make plays and there is pitch to contact that no defense can make up for. The first half of this decade the Twins were the 2nd kind. Of course the defense was bad with the Twins for Nolasco, especially in the outfield and maybe it was bad on all the other teams he played for but he did seem to give up a lot of homers and other rockets with guys on base when I saw him.
  12. Dantes929
    Sorry. Over a full run in ERA better. I know its not the best stat but I think there is something to run prevention that is reflected in ERA. Whether it is holding runners on better, inducing more ground balls or just pitching better out of the stretch. I said my friend got cut from a college team but beat the pitchers that made that college team and others in the same DII. If he was beating those guys 27-20 he was still giving up less runs than the other guys were. Funny.. Anyway, this was in the aluminum bat days and his ERA was almost always under 3.00. He was the Mark Buehrle of the amateur leagues. I am sure teams that hadn't seen him before thought they were going to destroy him but just never got anything good to hit. Some guys just know how to pitch and know how to use stuff other than velocity.
  13. Dantes929
    I would say their careers are rather similar. Career ERA 3.5 in the AL East vs 3.38 in the NL. I don't think I discount advance stats but strikeout rates and FIP are just not created equal. Cobb is more than a full run better than Nolacso in his career and done it against better offenses. Its not SSS. Not all pitchers who have the same stuff are created equal. I have a friend who tried out for a college team and was cut because he didn't throw hard enough or strike enough people out. He instead had an amateur career with about a 95% win rate against the same kind of pitchers he lost out to in college. He did it by being smart and living on the corners with pin point control. Cobb and Nolasco might have similar stuff but that does not make them similar pitchers. Cobb and Lynn do not have similar stuff but they are similar pitchers.
  14. Dantes929
    Cobb and Lynn are not Hughes and Nolasco. Hughes with New York had a 4.52 ERA with no particularly great season. Nolaasco had a 4.32 ERA and it was NL. Lynn is NL also but with a career ERA of 3.38. Only injury I know of was in 2016 arm surgery which would scare me off except he came back strong with a 3.43 ERA in 2017. Cobb also had 2015 arm surgery and came back strong after a slow start in 2017. In his last 24 starts 16 were quality. His injury history besides that is blood clot and a concussion which is why he hasn't gotten the big inning season but shouldn't ring any chronic injury bells.. Cobb would be my choice. He had a solid return season without his signature pitch. If that is what we get then that is a good solid middle rotation guy but he has upside also. It is said the changeups are the last pitch to come back after surgery and if Cobb can get the feel for the splitter change he could jump to front line and be a steal. I would be fine with Lynn as well..
  15. Dantes929
    How about Rooker at 1st and Sano DH?
  16. Dantes929
    Of course it can be done. Astros scored 7.5 runs a game in their wins in the WS. They gave up 5.5 in those same games. Citing great offenses that didn't win the WS as proof that great offenses can't win the WS pretty weak logic. Your also basing your premise on the idea that the top 3 Twins pitchers can't pitch well if they do make the playoffs. Nick Blackburn shut down the Whites Sox in game 163 and did the same with the Yankees in the playoffs. Were Jeter, A-Rod, Jackson, Mantle, Maris, Gehrig, Ruth, and Dimaggio shut down in the playoffs? Astros were 1st in scoring and 11th in pitching. Indians and Dodgers were 1st and 2nd in pitching but 12th and 17th in offense. It takes both sides and there is anecdotal evidence to support either side but very little proof of either. I am more a pitching and defense guy but the worse the pitching the better the offense needs to be and vice versa. Twins should absolutely go get a good pitcher. Hughes is not the answer. If they can improve the offense also, all the better.
  17. Dantes929
    Sometimes I think it would be smart to just flip the rotation. I think the perception out there right now is that we will at a large disadvantage at every spot in the rotation. I think the reality is that we will be at a slight to moderate disadvantage at every spot in the rotation, at least until Santana gets back. If you flip the rotation you are at a disadvantage in the 1st two spots, slight disadvantage in the 3rd spot and a slight to moderate advantage in the 4th and 5th spots. Just seems like the numbers would come out a little better that way. If we get a guy like Cobb then we would have the advantage in maybe 3 spots. Of course this all depends on the opponent. Maybe not so smart this year but I still think the idea of having Berrios start in the 3rd or 4 games instead of the 1st is reasonable.
  18. Dantes929
    I've seen people say he is not worth our starting right fielder plus 3 of our top prospects but have not seen anyone say below average. I might have missed it.
  19. Dantes929
    Says he threw 24 straight curve balls. They didn't look straight. Ok bad joke. They actually didn't look like they were great curve balls either. His best and his average for those curve balls did not look as nasty as the best and average of the clip of Enlow. Just more evidence that a guy with a curve ball and fast ball can do just fine without a third pitch if the two pitches are good enough and used in different ways. I think I could have watched a game pitched by Duffey in 2015 and one in 2016 and concluded that it wasn't the batters adjusting to the fact Duffey had only two pitches but simply that Duffey did not throw those two pitches as well.
  20. Dantes929
    So you are saying you can be a one trick pony like Bert if you do it well? Might not be what you meant but I agree with it anyway. Duffey did quite well as a starter when he had good command of both his fastball and curveball in 2015. He mixed big breaking sweepers with sharp biting 12-6 pitches. He had command of neither in 2016 quite possibly because of trying to develop a third pitch which I don't think he needed. There are a lot of variations in arm angle, speed and break with curve balls that essentially give you enough different looks from that same pitch. Heck, a slow curve ball IS a change up. Then even a mediocre fast ball placed well can be very effective. Duffey lost the well placed part, a little downward plane and a little bite from what he had in 2015. . It looks to me that Enlow has enough stuff right now to do well. If he can get the pin point control down I think his future is very bright.
  21. Dantes929
    While its true not all high prospects become above average players it is also true that ALL above average players were once prospects. If 3 or 4 in your top 20 and one outside of your top 20 end up good and the list cycles every 4 -6 years and each of those players has a 7-10 year career I guess it comes out ok since I am guessing most teams go through quite a few replacement level players to fill out rosters. I'm just pulling numbers from a cloud here but you get the idea. As far as Enlow goes, I knew very little about him before now but his delivery looks pretty good and I love stuff that doesn't just involve velocity. I also hope he gets on the fast track through the system. I know HOFers don't come through every day but I often ponder how long it would take Blyleven to get to the majors nowadays. especially considering pitch counts and innings limits.
  22. Dantes929
    "But here's the thing: Minnesota absolutely should NOT have been counting on the same impact in 2018. For a variety of reasons, Santana was all but certain to see regression this year. I've been banging that drum all offseason, and the recently released PECOTA projections from Baseball Prospectus express similar reservations, forecasting Erv for a 4.76 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. Even before this injury news came out, expecting the same Ervin Santana from 2017 to return in 2018 was folly. If the Twins held any such expectations (and their lack of urgency to add rotation help would seemingly suggest it), those are now out the door." So he was really lucky last year? His ERA, WHIP and SO/BB were almost identical in 2016. Was that lucky? He keeps himself in really good shape, has great control and apparently is using his slider, which is one of the best in baseball more effectively. You and PECOTA might be right. I put it at about the same odds as you and PECOTA being wrong.
  23. Dantes929
    I wouldn't be surprised if he has the best season. He is the most likely to do so but I wouldn't take him against the field. I hope we get Cobb. There are no guarantees there either but he also is a year farther from his surgery and his first year back , while it doesn't wow a lot of people, wowed me. If a year farther from his surgery allows him to get the feel for his change up (considered his best pitch) then it wouldn't be a stretch to say he could be a front line guy. His two seasons prior to surgery were sub 3.00 ERA. His first one post surgery was sub 4.00 in the AL East. At worst, it feels like we would pay free agent pricing (inflated) for a #3 and that is what we get. At best we pay free agent pricing for a #3 and we get better than that.
  24. Dantes929
    Some of his pitches did look really smooth and I would like him to get away from max effort if possible even it costs him a couple MPH which it seems he can spare but maybe it won't. I liken it to a golf swing. Max effort might get you the farthest distances but on average it produce much worse shots. Effortless 250 yards is way better than occasional 280. 100mph is fun but really shouldn't be his focus. Feels like it is just wasted in the lower levels anyway. He seems to have a bit of a Trevor May build, but more so.
  25. Dantes929
    I wasn't so high on Nolasco because he was another NL 4.0 type guy but however he was considered, Santana has put up top numbers for us and still seems to go underappreciated. I think the Cubs would be really happy if Darvish has 6 years of putting up the numbers Santana has the last two.
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