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Dantes929

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Everything posted by Dantes929

  1. Dantes929
    Sorry, no time to do the research but it sure seems to me that when Gibson throws a lot of breaking balls and change ups he is way more successful because he has great movement on those pitches. When he struggles he reminds me more of the bad Blackburn where every pitch looks similar.
  2. Dantes929
    "Buxton had a pair of bunt hits in the first game of this series at Toronto that left a lot of people wonder why the heck he didn’t bunt more often. With how easy he made those hits look, it was a valid question. Well, here’s why. Byron showed it all this weekend in Toronto. We already saw the speed. We already saw the defense. Sunday he flexed his muscles. This is the kinda stuff that made him the top prospect in all of baseball. There is nothing he can’t do on a baseball diamond." In that first game the pair of bunts scored a run, moved two runners and got him on base twice himself. Every one of the runners he advanced scored as did Buxton and was the difference in the game. I made the first absurd comment that if he could maintain a .450 average bunting he should do it every time. It was to make a point. My real position is that however many times he could bunt and maintain more than a .400 average or better by doing so (9-19 thus far) that is how much he should bunt and I still believe that. If you try to convince me that by hitting 3 home runs in one game means he should bunt less my response would be the second absurd statement that if he can hit 486 home runs in a season (3 per game) then yes, he should never bunt at all. I don't know how high an average you need to maintain to make a bunt hit worth it given his steal rate to equal how high an average and slugging percentage by swinging away but some one should figure it out. I just used the .400 average as a guess. The higher he can average and the more power he shows by swinging away the higher the bunt success percentage needs to be. To me he was a huge part of winning the first game and a huge part of winning this game. He did it by using all the stuff Tom referred to in the first paragraph. To bunt less would be utilizing less of his talents and skills.
  3. Dantes929
    Nice counter article. For whatever reason Sano is not my favorite guy to watch but that doesn't mean I don't appreciate what he brings to the table. Vargas just isn't in the same class and Escobar should be batting 7-9 rather than cleanup. Buxton and Mauer are my favorite. Dozier, Polanco and Rosario have been very good and Kepler is a useful piece. With the roll Polanco and Buxton are on, having Sano and Grossman in this lineup makes it formidable.
  4. Dantes929
    I've loved watching it since Carew because he was so good with his placement and so smooth running but this guy is in a different category and I don't know why others don't love it also. Bunting just to the left of the first baseman and seeing the fielder get to it quickly but simply cannot go one way, field the ball and shift his weight toward the line fast enough to catch Buxton because he is too fast. And if he fields it and the 2nd baseman covers forget about it because he is too fast. And if the 2nd baseman has to charge in and forget about it because he is too fast. Or bunting it down the 3rd base line and he can't get to it and throw because he is too fast. Its just exciting and fascinating to me. What makes it all the better and I will be honest here because I didn't think he could do it is that Buxton has become a really good base stealer. He has obviously worked very hard on his bunting and his base stealing and it has paid off. Don't stop now.
  5. Dantes929
    Would you have said that if Curtiss had put them down? He had a good performance the day before and has had a good minor league season. All they got was a bloop double off him. Any one else think Kepler could have and should have gone hard after that blooper. If Mauer is in there maybe he just plays backup but it is so much easier for an outfielder to come in and make a play than an infielder going back. Really looked like he was coasting when he should have been aggressive. Announcers made a good point that if Garver hadn't made that throwing error then that bloop gets caught pretty easily by Dozier because the infield wouldn't have been playing in. That's baseball but boy, a comeback win would have been awesome.
  6. Dantes929
    I remember several years back against the Rays where it seemed like their outfield got a bunch of balls I didn't think they could get to and our outfielders were missing balls they should have caught. It was literally the difference between sweeping the series and getting swept. I don't think Buxton gets to one ball a game that other center fielders don't get to but it sure feels like it and it sure makes a difference in the team ERA. I should add that Rosario vs Dyoung and Kepler vs Willingham makes a pretty big difference as well.
  7. Dantes929
    I will disagree with qualifiers. For starters hits and especially extra base hits are far less automatic so it is simply a matter of percentages and individual abilities. At what point is the success rate of bunting better than the benefits of a lower success rate of swinging away? If Buxton bats 600 times, bunts 100 times and gets a hit 45 of those times it is a great thing to do if he is a .250 hitter otherwise by swinging away with decent power. If by bunting 150 times he gets 50 hits the incremental success rate of the next 50 is 10 percent and that means he is bunting too much. Sparingly doesn't enter into it, IMO. Best analogy I have got is basketball. If you can shoot 50% from 2 point distance and 40% from 3 point distance then the 3 pointer is a better option. If you can shoot 30% from 3 point distance then the 2 pointer is the better option. Of course adjustments are made for the situation and what the defense gives you much like baseball but the team that maximizes the percentages over the course of a game and season has a better likelihood of winning. Simply put if Buxton can bat .450 by bunting every at bat he should do it Of course he can't but at what number can he maintain a .450 or even .400 average? I don't have the answer but whatever it is that should be the number.
  8. Dantes929
    Wow! With those kinds of numbers maybe the pitchers were begging Mantle to bunt. Of course it matters who bats behind you also. With bases empty and no one out getting Mantle on 1st base with Elston Howard, Yogi Berra and Bill Skowron batting after probably meant good things were going to happen.
  9. Dantes929
    Depends on the league. He hasn't had his finest catch yet. I wonder if he gets in batters minds. Like "I don't even want to hit up the middle or the gaps. What's the point?" According to WAR he is for the season. I was going to say Polanco is hard to beat the last two weeks but Buxton's OPS is better in that stretch also.
  10. Dantes929
    He had two bunt singles yesterday. One moved Dozier to home and Mauer to third. The second moved Mauer to second. Ok, extra base hits move them up more. He currently is getting an extra base hit in 6% of his plate appearances.
  11. Dantes929
    Maybe I should have put it in caps. Buxton is currently batting .243 with a .305 OBP. When not bunting he is batting .229 with an OBP of .296. When bunting HE IS 9 FOR 19! Works out to an average and OBP of .474. I know you can't just isolate this stat and project but if you could he should be bunting every single time he gets up. Also as pointed out above he is getting better at it, he draws infielders in and he creates havoc when he gets on base. I know some envision him as more of a Puckett (who also bunted a lot even in his good power years) but I am thinking more like Ricky Henderson who batted lead off, got on base a lot, stole a ton of bases and still managed 300 home runs.
  12. Dantes929
    Big Sexy would have been a great name on the back of Colon. Really wish it would have happened.
  13. Dantes929
    I am pretty luke warm when it comes to sacrifice bunting but I love bunting for hits. I loved it when Carew did it. I loved it when Puckett did it. I loved it when Gomez used to do it. I love it when Mauer would do it and the infield was back and yes, I especially love it with Buxton. I enjoy it almost as much as his triples and I think it helped him climb out of his big early season funk. He is 9 for 19 on bunt attempts. That is 11% of his hits in 5% of his at bats.
  14. Dantes929
    Nitpicking a bit but Curtis struck out the first batter he faced on 6 pitches. He hung a slider that he was lucky wasn't hit out and threw two others that were fouled off and then struck him out with a really nasty slider. Just throwing a little fuel on previous fires. That was our number three batter that laid down two bunts with guys on base. I loved it but wonder if there would be criticism if he had made outs doing it instead of being successful. Mauer looked sharp and well rested. Did the day off help?
  15. Dantes929
    Ok, the error was costly but on offense Garver had about the only solid hit on the day aside from Buxton's and on average that is about what Mauer would provide especially against a lefty. It was just as likely that the error wouldn't matter and the hit would be key. That's baseball. I have read for a long time that Mauer should be platooned at first base and get his rest days against lefties. I also remember a season where Morneau played every game because it was deemed crucial for him to do so and batted about .150 down the stretch and we lost in game 163. Maybe a couple days off would have made all the difference. Yes, we are in the thick of things but 35 is still a pretty fair number of games to go.
  16. Dantes929
    I never mind my wife having the last word. In fact, I'm delighted when she gets to it.
  17. Dantes929
    When fans stump for Morris in the HOF I understand it but just like you think Santana was the better pitcher I think Guidry was better than Morris. I am ok if they all get in. Yes, 1978 was a big reason for putting him out there and is part of my star shining brighter but for not as long position. I don't know why I got to see so many of his games that year or why I cared but he was amazing. 25-3 record which I know fans pooh pooh but these were earned. He was 22 games over .500 on his own on a team that needed a game 163 to get into the playoffs. 30 of 35 quality starts, 9 complete game shutouts. Every month under 3.00 ERA and only two months above a 2.00. Fact that he was 5'11" and 160 lbs was pretty cool also.
  18. Dantes929
    Just make sure he knows that in the move to the third spot he should be focused on what has been successful for him and not feel like he has to be a power hitter which leads back to the pull happy over swinging. I always wish someone had drilled that into NIcky Punto's head when they gave him the 3rd base spot. It sure seemed like he thought he had to hit for power in that position based on his over swinging. He could have been way better if he just did what he was good at. Same with Buxton. Don't give up on bunt base hits, line drives and walks.
  19. Dantes929
    The part I don't like, and correct me if I am wrong, is that they assume all first basemen can make the scoop on throws in the dirt. If they don't make them it is an error on the guy making the throw with no credit or discredit going to the first base man. I just don't buy it. There are high hops which are easy and short hops which are generally easy but the in between hops can be quite tricky and I believe a guy that does this great vs one that is poor saves many errors and runs and Mauer does this great, not to mention being quite tall with good reach. I always thought Hrbek was the best first baseman I have seen because he was so steady on the balls in the dirt and it was an injustice he never got a GG. Morneau was very good but not great. Mauer is great and maybe better than Hrbek for his mobility. Even more of an injustice if Mauer does not get the GG this year.
  20. Dantes929
    We are not on different pages. Just a little different bias. I agree anyone with certain career milestones should get in ( I have no problem with Blyleven being in) but I also think anyone with several seasons that shine really bright should get in as well. 3 batting titles - in. 3 Cy Youngs - in. 5 top 5 MVP finishes - in and yes, how many years were they top 10 in major stats should be considered. I know there are biases for those seasonal awards just like there is for HOF voting in general. BTW, Twins finishes 4th in the AL West in 77 and Carew got MVP and he also got a bunch of votes in other Twins mediocre years. Heavy bias toward winning teams but not absolute.
  21. Dantes929
    Quick count says there were 9 years where he could be considered the ace of the staff which was more than I thought it would be. Check out this year where he had one of the higher ERA's. https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/1972.shtml Except for your argument about wins which is probably quite valid I have issues with your first paragraph. Without the argument about the value of wins it is hardly circular. Saying you weren't considered one of the elite at your position in any given year so what is your support that you were elite enough for the Hall is a reasonable position.
  22. Dantes929
    I don't care about the win/loss. He had a 22 year career and was an all star twice (I know this isn't a great stat but twice in 22 years). He finished in the Cy Young race in 3rd twice, 4th once and 7th once. Essentially he was never the best pitcher in the league and very often not the best pitcher on his team. His strikeouts/9 was 6.7. Not in Santana or Koufax territory and actually identical to Kevin Slowey. Those are some of the knocks on him. I have compared Scott Diamond and Tyler Duffey to Blyleven after their good years and had some fans consider it sacrilege but it gets to the heart of the matter. For one season Duffey had the command and the break on the curve ball that Blyleven did. The trick is to do it for more than one season and Blyleven did it for a lot of seasons. That was special and he gets in on the being really good for a really long time ticket. We are debating about Santana getting in on the being great for a shorter time ticket.
  23. Dantes929
    I would throw Ron Guidry in that mix as well but we are still talking about shorter careers with light shining brighter. 2 Cy Young's and 4 top 4 finishes is more than the others on your list. I think you could make the case that a few of these should be in or that a few that are in should be out. I didn't realize Kevin Brown's case was so good.
  24. Dantes929
    I agree the lack of post season success will hurt Santana as does the small market of the Twins as does not getting that 3rd Cy Young, ridiculous as it was. However, its not like Koufax barely got into the Hall and Santana is a little worse so he should miss out. If you narrowed down the HOF to 22 players instead of 220 Koufax would be one of those 22 so being just slightly not as good should get Santana there if all was fair. I would weigh a great 6 year stretch over a very good 20 year stretch. Blyleven is in and a strong case could be made for Morris. Santana was better than either of them and not by just a little bit. Same could be said for Santana vs. lot of those already in the Hall.
  25. Dantes929
    I agree. His slider or curve ball that struck out Abreu was a thing of beauty. Some games it seems like he hardly even uses his off speed stuff.
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