Dantes929

Well, first of all if we see Darvish pitch for the Twins in the WS it must mean the Twins made it to the WS, no? Kershaw has been Klyle Gibson like in the past postseasons. If we got him would you not look forward to watching him in the WS? Broncos lost 3 Super Bowls with Elway. Would you have said "hey, not looking forward to seeing him in another Super Bowl"? I'm not saying I want the Twins to sign Darvish but if they do I am not worried about how he might do in the WS.

Not disagreeing with your 2nd paragraph but why in the world would you not look forward to Darvish pitching in the World Series?

Man, that is crazy. 3.5 isn't even what most on here consider ace production. Confident is still not a guarantee. There is still risk and I am not confident. Would be nice to see a guy confident enough to say pay me minimum and add 10 mil for every 1 WAR. No one will do it but if Dozier had on his last contract he would have made out well.

Santana has two years in a row of better run prevention than Darvish and is not considered an ace by many. Berrios was almost identical to Darvish last year and my favorite target from the get go, Cobb, was better last year. I think Darvish is the most likely to have the best season of the 4 but I wouldn't take the odds of him against the field and that is just one season. I don't get too hung up on the term ace. If I felt good that he could give us 6 years of 3.5 ERA I would say fine. I really don't feel the overpay for the over years is worth the risk but I won't criticize the Twins if they go for it. BTW, you might be in the minority now, (though not the lone voice), but watch if Darvish is signed and blows out his arm in the 2nd game. Posts will be filled with people saying they were against it from the start.

Some 1st base stats. In 118 games Mauer had 2 errors. In 30 games Vargas had 2 errors and in 8 games Sano had 2 errors. Just my eyeball talking but aside from errors committed Mauer saved his fellow fielders from many errors and Vargas and Sano saved none. If Mauer's fielding Wins Above Replacement were based on those two replacing him his WAR would have been far beyond Buxtons and quite possibly beyond anyone in the history of WAR. That's not so say Sano cannot improve but his starting point is pretty low. As far as Sano goes, when he was the #2 prospect in baseball I suggested trading him for one of the shortstops that were ranked behind him. I guess I always thought his future would be DH and still think that and am ok with it. Hitting is what he does best. I am ok with trading him but trading him now would be the definition of trading low. If, as Tobio says, we can get 90 cents on the dollar for him that would be ok but to go lower than that I would definitely accept the risk of more accusations causing his value to plummet and just keep him. Of course if nothing more surfaces and he has a monster 1st half that would be the time to trade him but the Catch 22 of trading its that if he has a monster 1st half the Twins will want to keep him.

Got me beat. I was told I have a face only a mother could love be even she said lets just be friends. I figured us for about a 3% chance of signing Darvish. I read the article and now think the Twins have about a 3 % chance of signing Darvish.

I get the reasons for Mauer being off the list. Same reasons for Escobar since he becomes a free agent in 2019? Seems he would have as much value as Rogers and Duffey and even Castro.

I got the feeling he threw more curve balls in his successful stretch. He had a great start earlier in the year where he said he threw more curve balls than ever before and then I didn't see it much again until the second half. Either that or he was throwing his slider much slower and with more break. How is it decided whether a pitch is a slider or a curve ball? Seems like there is a fair amount of overlap sometimes.

I said the day after the season ended that if the Twins were to sign Cobb they would automatically get a B+ from me for the off season and I would be ok if they were done at that point. So far they get a D_ from me, not because of standing still but because of signing Rodney and letting Burdi go and for having any interest in Napoli. The only plus is they haven't made a bad trade of our top prospects. The fact is there were only about 8 players, pitchers or other that I would even want them to get. 30 teams, 8 players. That is why just signing a guy like Cobb would have been a good get and if they had gone after it aggressively like they did Castro last year they may have gotten him out of the gate. I would like Cobb because of the depth and quality he would give us in the upper part of the rotation. This doesn't mean the cupboard is bare if we don't get him. We just rely more on guys like Gonsalves, May and Romero. Not my plan A but better than doing something stupid. Pitching prospects not working out in the past is not proof that they will never work out.

Also, Span had a higher OPS than Longoria last year. I would not mind having Longoria on our team but he is really not a big splash in anything but name recognition at this point. Good but not great.

While I agree with this I do prefer to give the enormous contracts to guys that have performed for the Twins. I hate giving the big money for big years players have had somewhere else. The thing is, H20face probably wasn't even very far off the market value with his extension numbers if you add the bonus to the salary. In fact probably a little bit low since fan graphs has his annual value at near 30mil. I would consider a 45 mil two year extension and for all the reasons you stated Dozier would probably consider it also. I am also ok with just letting it play out. We have no idea what his shelf life is or how much he likes it here. According to this article his current contract actually appeared to be one sided in Dozier's favor. https://www.minnpost.com/sports/2015/03/brian-doziers-oddly-one-sided-20-million-contract I think he is a great player but he always seems to take a half a year figuring out that by going with the pitch instead of trying to pull everything into the left field line bleachers makes a huge difference in results.

"Nathan doesn't blow save. Twins go up 2-0" This is where you lost me. Nathan was great and much of the time it was to the Yankees credit that they came back in the 9th innings but I can create an alternative outcome on series if Nathan simply closes out all the games against the Yankees. If he closes out all his chances against New York everything is different including the monkey on the Twins back about losing to New York.

I've though all along that Cobb should have been plan A. I would have offered him 48 mil for 3 years the day they were able to. Look at their (Cobb and Darvish) careers and most recent year and the fact that Cobb was very effective in his first full year after surgery and only looks to get better. I am not one of those that favors strikeout rates over run prevention. Cobb would look great in the rotation and if they got him I would be fine if they were done for the off season. Of course Darvish would be great but you know how many other team's fan posting sites are talking about getting him the same way we have been? No offense Tom, but I still laugh every time I see how all our competitors have gotten so much better and how the Twins remain stagnant. I've been seeing that same sentiment every year for at least 16 years and in that time we have 6 division titles, a game 163 and a wild card. Instead of 4 last place finishes in that time, we would have at least a dozen judging by how our fans rate the off seasons. There was very little difference in the personnel between 2016 and 2017. The difference in how they played was night and day. I see plenty of room for improvement with batters developing and with Gonsalves, Mejia and May replacing Colon, Santiago and Hughes. I want Cobb or Darvish but the 91 Twins went into the season with Tapani, Erickson and Knoblach as question marks. I don't mind going in with a few question marks as long as there is potential there and I think there is. I guess if we don't get Darvish, Lynn or Cobb I pick option 3 and feel just fine about it.

Twins had 85 wins . Not a bad idea but probably more fair to take Division winners and then the top two teams period rather than the 2nd place team in each division. For example, this format in 1987 would have had the 85 win Twins and the 83 win Royals while excluding the 91 win Brewers and the 89 win Yankees. I would also be ok with the 3rd best record making it and 4th and 5th playing a play in game. All sorts of possibilities.

I think your memory is failing a little. Duffey's great debut was in 2015. He had such a great array of speeds, break and plane that I though adding a third pitch was unnecessary. He also had a fastball that he had very good command over. In 2016 he lost command of the fastball (possibly from working on the changeup) and his curve balls did not seem to have the same bite or variety. I didn't see him enough in 2017 to comment much. Seemed like he either had it or didn't. I wouldn't mind seeing him get another shot at the rotation but I don't think that is likely. Great curve balls are as effective as 98mph fast balls and Duffey has shown stretches of having a great one but I agree he has been on a flatter plane since 2015 which isn't good.

Maybe 32 year old Napoli. Definitely not 36 year old Napoli. Maybe Vargas is the answer. I also don't think Rodney is the answer but Burdi might have been.

I don't discount leadership but I know people talked more about Hunter's leadership when he was hitting 3 run homers to win games and not so much when he was taking collars and they were losing games. Confidence, swagger and fearlessness. That is leadership in baseball and while that doesn't usually manifest itself in rookies it doesn't need to be in a 12 year veteran either. Just from appearances it looked like Rosario, Santana, Escobar and Kintzler had it but I really don't know either.

Twins certainly tried for the home grown bullpen with drafts and acquisitions. Arms can blow out at any time and I think we have been a little unlucky with guys like Burdi Jay and Chargois. It could easily have gone the other way. If every team loses internal guys and acquires external guys all you really have is a game of musical chairs. I'm not sure why internal cannot work. Just lack of patience? Every team has Burdi's that they let go and then go on to thrive somewhere else.

Kinley for Baird and Burdi. Rodney instead of Kintzler. Not a good month in my book. Castro was ok but nothing spectacular. I kind of liked the Garcia transactions but the success of this season was mainly guys that we had last year that simply played a lot better this year. I am not disappointed. Maybe nonplussed. Go get Darvish, Lynn or Cobb and I will change my mind.

First page suggested Garver and Gordon. I don't think that breaks the bank. I was thinking Castro might be a better chip. You lose .30 offense at catcher but gain a pretty good prospect in Gordon.. Further review shows the Marlins had a pretty solid infield offensively so maybe Gordon isn't such a good piece. Looking at their offense numbers I am wondering how they didn't score more runs.

I'm not so convinced Darvish is a true ace either. I still don't get the love affair of strikeouts vs run prevention. Is Darvish better than Cobb and Santana because he strikes out more guys even though he allows more runs to score? Cobb and Santana both gave up fewer runs than Darvish in 2017 yet Darvish is considered significantly better. We are not even talking small sample size. Darvish over his career has allowed 1 earned run per 92 innings fewer than Cobb. I would rather have Darvish also but not by all that much and certainly not for double the cost. At the end of the day I would be thrilled to get Darvish, Cobb or Lynn because the true odds are that we get none of them. Any one of them makes us a better team and more likely to make the playoffs. I would be happy to take my chances on any of them along with Santana in a playoff game. The thing about #2's is that for any given game they are still pretty capable of pitching like aces. Same argument with Rodney and Kintzler. Kintzler has a lot fewer strikeouts per 9 than Rodney but his ERA the last two years is about half that of Rodney. Whenever Kintzler came in my level of nervousness wasn't much different than that of Nathan. Much of that had to do with Nathan's twitching vs Kintzler's grit but I still felt pretty good with Kintzler. On the other hand, whenever Rodney came in pitching against us I thought our odds of scoring on him were pretty good.

I like it. A clear upgrade but not so much that I think it will break the bank of prospects we have to give up, especially if Castro is included. A lot to like with the right handed bat. I've always been a believer in improving multiple positions even incrementally and that includes improvement by developing guys already in spots. I expect Buxton and Sano to have better years. Improving catcher even by a little would help also. Do this and sign Cobb and we can be done, as far as I am concerned.

You've go me thinking we can get him for the minimum, but lets double it just in case.

Was just reading Tom's comment about Burdi being left off the roster for a reason and thought "someone left Santana off their roster for some reason also" Can someone explain the downside of keeping Burdi on the roster while we have 4 open spots? Why don't they always have 40 filled and then take guys off as needed rather than take 4 guys off in anticipation of acquiring 4 different guys. What is the value of having a spot available ahead of time?

Exactly what I was thinking. Pretty sweet deal for him. Has someone pay him 2mil just for working out and then giving him more than he has ever made for the following year with the risk of not coming back as strong and even if completely healthy will have missed over a year of baseball so still risky. Club option of 8 mil for the 3rd year seems more than fair.