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Dantes929

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Everything posted by Dantes929

  1. Dantes929
    2009 Yankees signed what I considered the top 3 free agents overall. Sabbathia, Burnett and Texeira which added to a team that won 89 games the prior year. That team won the WS but if I were a Yankee fan I would have lost a lot of interest at that point. "Super teams" just don't do much for me. If I want to watch sure wins I'll watch the Globetrotters. I'm ok with adding a piece that fits but have been following Gonsalves, Romero and May for several years. Those are the guys I want to see play for the Twins.
  2. Dantes929
    Still not sure why Cobb is not higher on everyone's list and Cole is so high. They have almost identical numbers career wise and Cobb's were better last year. Cobb also pitches in the AL East while Cole is a National Leaguer which just makes me discount him by 10%. I would be ok with the package mentioned for Cole though. I don''t know that I want to add more than one starter because I think at least two of Gonsalves, Romero, Mejia and May will be very good by mid season. Twins didn't get better in 2017 by adding a lot of guys. They did it by guys playing better and developing. I like to see that trend continue.
  3. Dantes929
    Six years ago we were promoting guys that were failing in the minors (Ok, failing might be strong but certainly not guys we were itching to see based on their performances). Guys like Seger may or may not thrive in the majors but at least we have several pitchers in the minors that have earned a shot rather than just get promoted because there is no one else.
  4. Dantes929
    "We were determined to make this a place where "Don't read the comments" did NOT apply, and would rather lose the ability for feedback than cave to constant trolls and bickering." Mission accomplished. Well done you all. I went all over the place before this and was mostly depressed by the comment sections. Here I look forward to it. Thank you!! Even in the midst of a bad run of baseball you have single handedly made this the Golden Age of being a Twins fan. Of course by single handedly I mean TD collectively.
  5. Dantes929
    Wouldn't trading 2 mil to just one team have a lot more value than adding 1 mil to two separate teams. Or even 3 mil. Anyone else feel like we might have been able to get just one player but much higher on the prospect list?
  6. Dantes929
    Funny. I was thinking of Liam as well. I know it happens but i disagree that there are 10 of Liam for every Kyle. If you dominate in the minors you still have a pretty good shot of doing ok in the majors. From my memory the scouting reports on stuff show Gonsalves to be much better than Liam's. Also, Liam is a pretty good poster boy for your point but he has still carved out some pretty good major league years since he has left Minnesota.
  7. Dantes929
    As far as I can see, the desirable free agents are Darvish, Arrieta, Lynn and Cobb. Sabbathia would be nice short term but I don't see it. What are our true odds of getting even one of these guys? What are the odds of getting one of these guys plus a trade where we get someone better than Mejia, keeping in mind that his 4.5 ERA is probably about league average and I assume we think he can do a little better. I think it way more likely that the rotation is filled by Mejia and Gonsalves than it is by two new guys and I am not saying that is a bad thing. Not having a lot of time in AAA shouldn't dim our view of how good a pitcher Gonsalves is right now. Admittedly, I have no idea having never seen him but his dominance of lower levels should translate at least somewhat. In essence I don't see us getting two new guys when there are a couple dozen other teams trying for a pretty small supply. I am hoping for one of the 4 listed above but even there I don't see any real evidence that we have a better chance of landing even one than the other couple dozen teams.
  8. Dantes929
    I can just picture Twins Daily before the 91 season. Erickson did well at the end of 90 but he is still unproven and could use more seasoning. Tapani is 27 years old and has only pitched a handful of games at the major league level. Morris is in the twilight of his career coming off two mediocre years. This is not exactly a rotation that thrusts a team forcefully into playoff contention. Don't even get me started on 87. Why not rely on guys to step up? I could easily see Gonsalves following the path of Kyle Hendricks. Why expect guys who have dominated at lower levels to fail in the Bigs? Twins won 85 games and much of the 2nd half had Colon, Segers, Gee and half a dozen others filling the role of 4th and 5th starters. No matter who we go with it will look better on paper than the start of 2017 and way better than the end .. Why not believe the results will be better also?
  9. Dantes929
    I've said this before but there are just too many teams that want pitching and too few top pitchers for me to think the Twins will land two of them. There is no history of them even landing one. New management gives me some hope that we will add one of the 5 guys you have listed. If you gave me one as a sure thing against the possibility of getting one or more I would bank the sure thing in a heart beat.
  10. Dantes929
    No doubt. I can see where the last half dozen years have jaded fans but I am not expecting Gonsalves or Mejia to fail. I am expecting Berrios to get better and May to be good. Doesn't mean I wouldn't like to see Darvish. I would also feel pretty good about Cobb. All seasons depend on guys developing and progressing or just playing well. We saw in 2016 what happens when no one plays well. We saw in 2017 what happens when many of the players do have good seasons. Most rotations have 3 good performers. I don't know which ones they will be but I expect that out of 7 decent options 3 of them will step up and 2 more will be adequate. I can see where the list doesn't comfort people though. I would like them to add one guy. It can make a huge difference.
  11. Dantes929
    Santana's ERA against Cleveland was 0.38 in 24 innings. 2.08 in 13 innings against the Astros. 3.18 against the Yankees in 6 innings. Small sample size? What are the playoffs if not that? Just because Santana did not beat the Yankees does not mean he was not capable of doing so. Aren't we expecting Berrios to get better? Getting to the playoffs is still the challenge. I am ok with Santana or Berrios in a short series. Often all it takes is good luck. Heck, against the Yankees it might have all hinged on a blown 3rd strike call before Gregorius' home run. All of this is debatable. The odds of us getting two top of the rotation guys is less debatable. If Santana is not top of the line then the only top of the line starter out there is Darvish with Arrietta being on the border. What are the odds of getting both of those guys?
  12. Dantes929
    Its not just this,which I agree with completely. His 2015 time with the Twins can be written off IMO. He was having a monster year as a starter in the minors until his calf injury. His bad start was probably due to nerves and maybe a little rust since he was brought up pretty quickly after his injury. To me, that 7 game stretch matches with his stuff and command when healthy. Those starts were against, the Cards, the Cubs, the Royals, the Red Sox, the White Sox the Rays and the Jays so not just bottom feeders.
  13. Dantes929
    I agree with this also except I don't see Mejia starting in the minors. I think he pitched well enough and did not miss enough time to be penalized such that I think he starts ST as either #4 or #5 on the depth charts depending on whether we get someone else. You could talk me out of it but Santana, Berrios, Gibson and ? and ?. . If we don't pick someone up I suspect it will be Mejia and Gonsalves. Would be better than Santiago and Colon anyway.
  14. Dantes929
    "If they get 2 top of the rotation arms"? Odds wise I am guessing you might as well say "If they get 5 top of the rotation arms". I say this because I cannot remember them ever getting what was widely viewed at the time as even 1 top of the rotation arm during the off season. Morris was coming off two mediocre years at age 36 so do not count him. Blyleven somehow or other was acquired for a player to be named later (how did that happen?) during the season. Ervin Santana has been the closest thing I can think of and people still question that status even though he has been nothing but great. Certainly he wasn't viewed that way when we got him. How many top of the rotation guys are there? How many are available? How many teams are going after them? If we get one guy in the Cobb or Lynn category I will consider it a successful off season. Darvish, even better. Again, there might not be 30 teams after these guys but there are no less than a dozen for each. If we get one of those guys then it is that guy, Santana, Berrios, Gibson and Mejia. If we don't it is probably Gonsalves or a different rookie that fills the spot. I hope it is not Santiago. I just don't see May with us out of the gate unless he is throwing 96 with great command. With his back issues I definitely see him as a starter. I have long considered May to be the centerpiece of the Span and Revere trades and am optimistic he will be a big piece this year. I just don't see rushing him in April.
  15. Dantes929
    I'd be ok with 15 innings. If Santana hurts his hamstring and is out for a couple weeks I don't care if he has a few rehab starts where he gives up 8 runs in 9 innings. I just want him to say he is ready to go. The performance is not the issue but rather his health. If you miss most of two years now the issue should be performance and earning your way back. I don't care how low they set the bar. No one that has missed as much time as he has should object to performing at a certain level of competence. I would say the same about Perkins last year. Size of the contract and past performance should not carry much weight. A ship does not sail with yesterday's wind.
  16. Dantes929
    He should be behind Bartola Colon, who should be behind Bert Blyleven on the depth charts. I have no problem with a come back and would set the bar rather low but at least set one. How about any 3 start period in the minors (AAA or AA) where his ERA is less than 3.00. I am guessing May, Gonsalves and Romero would jump at that opportunity. Why not hold Hughes to that standard as well?
  17. Dantes929
    Makes complete sense and difficult to argue with but something happens around the edges that makes it less. Just based on your analysis, two of our 3 best pitchers last year were very obviously Duffey and Pressley and Kintzler one of our worst.. Teams with the most dunks should score the most points because they have the highest amount of 95% shots but I don't think there is that much of a correlation.. A quick look at the team stats says Cleveland had the best ERA and the most strikeouts but its kind of a mixed bag after that. Houston had the 2nd most strikeouts but the 11th best ERA. Twins had the 2nd worst strikeout rate but still managed 19th in run prevention. So we are looking at a connection but rather a loose connection between strikeouts and ERA. Cleveland was also best in the league in not giving up walks. There appears to be a similar connection between walks and run prevention. Its there but somewhat loose. Texas for example had the fewest strikeouts and gave up the 7th most walks but were still somehow better in ERA than 9 other teams. I would tend to say striking out the most and walking the fewest is a great combination but not everyone can be a Verlander or Kershaw. What makes Kintzler better than Pressley or Duffey?
  18. Dantes929
    Santana was our best pitcher and was 3rd among starters for SO/9. Of our top 5 relievers the two with the lowest ERA's were the ones with the lowest strikeout rates. The two with the highest ERA's had the highest strikeout rates. Who did you want to see out there with the game on the line? Kintzler or Pressley? I am not against strikeouts and all for the kind of stuff that can generate them but if it does not have corresponding run prevention what is the point? San Fran won a few WS with pitch to contact philosophy. They just did it better. Way better. I didn't think Gonsalves profiled as a strikeout pitcher. Glad to see the strikeout stats because the impression I have gotten is that he is a pitcher rather than a thrower. Again, run prevention is king. I am less concerned with how it is achieved. Who wouldn't want Glavine and Maddux on their staff? Offensively, the part that offends me about strikeouts is the situations where we don't need a home run but rather just putting the ball in play and the guys are swinging from their heels even with two strikes. Situational hitting still has a place in the game. Even for guys like Sano.
  19. Dantes929
    Whoops. Going by memory and this bad list. https://www.truebluela.com/2017/4/5/15188146/dodgers-prospects-2017-trade-rankings.
  20. Dantes929
    I'm in between. When is the last time the Twins added two starters and two relievers that everyone was happy with? I think the answer is never. Every "proven" player has been a prospect at one point and they don't exclusively get their chances with the losing teams and then get picked up by the better teams when they succeed. Every team relies on prospects and not just the non contending teams and not just the top prospects. Look at Bellinger for the Dodgers. He was actually mentioned as an add on piece in a trade for Dozier. and a quick check says he was only the 9th ranked prospect of the Dodgers heading into last season. Of course more prospects fail than succeed but it is a long season and every team has a revolving door of them throughout the year. Many fail but some stick. I don't think adding two starters and relievers is necessary. There are probably 25 teams looking to add starters and relievers and the lists I see usually only mention a COMBINED total of less than a dozen attractive free agent pitchers and probably a similar amount of trade possibilities. . If we could just nab one starter above the Pelfrey/Correia quality and one good reliever I would be happy since the odds say we won't get more than one or the other or maybe even neither. My preference is for Cobb but if it is Darvish or Lynn I am ok with that. Start the season with Santana, Berrios, Cobb, Meija, and Gibson and have the 4 you mentioned be ready my June because the odds are one or two starters will under perform and of those 4 prospects one or two should be able to contribute. Adding Cobb and a good reliever would probably rank with any off season we have had in the last 30 years aside from the AJ trade. Without hindsight that includes the 91 year.
  21. Dantes929
    This is why I am so high on Alex Cobb. In his first full season back he has ERA and QS% very similar to Darvish but in a tougher division and league. That is without the feel of his best pitch having come back yet. To me he is much more attractive since it is not only money that would get him here rather than prospects but much less money than Darvish. Similar stats if your goal is run prevention and yet Darvish is considered ace and Cobb considered middle rotation at best. I don't get it. I would rather have Darvish but not by that much.
  22. Dantes929
    Just my eyeball test here but Duffey was great in 2015. He had good command of his fastball and a dizzying assortment of speeds and angles with his very sharp breaking curve ball. Since then his fastball might have the same velocity but not the same control and his curve ball does not seem as sharp and on average seems to be a little more flat. Kind of like Scott Diamond. His best year he had a great curve ball. The next year, probably because of arm problems it just wasn't as sharp. Saying the batters adjusted to him or that he didn't have enough arsenal just isn't telling the story. If Duffey pitched in 2016 as well as he did in 2015 he would still be in the rotation, IMO. Its been 30 years since I read Ball Four so I may not remember this perfectly but Sal Maglie was a pitching coach that told Bouton he needed to mix up his pitches more so batters couldn't sit on one pitch. Bouton pointed out that Maglie threw a lot of curve balls in his day. Maglie admitted he did. Bouton asked if batters sat on that pitch and Maglie not seeing the hypocrisy said "Yep, they knew it was coming but they still couldn't touch it"
  23. Dantes929
    i prefer light shining brighter over lesser light shining longer. 3 awards does seem to be a pretty good threshold for Cy Youngs and batting titles. If a guy got three of those he should be in even if he only played 3 seasons. That is my case for Oliva and Mauer. Santana should be a shoe in with 3 Cy Young's. The fact that he only has two but should have had 3 or maybe even 4 (2008) is what makes him a borderline guy, IMO. No tears if he doesn't get in. You can make a case, but it is still borderline.
  24. Dantes929
    I agree. Longoria would look pretty good over at 3rd. Another right handed bat with Sano moving to DH and backup 3rd and 1st. Sign Cobb and one good reliever and the off season grade would be immediately A- at least in my book.
  25. Dantes929
    I don't totally discount wins because whatever the conditions, whether it be weather, home field, good defense good offense, the starter generally has the most impact on the outcome of a game and to get a win you need to do better than the other guy with all of his challenges that particular day. Lets just say I give it weight but not a whole lot. I think game outcome W-L record is just as meaningful but I still like the quality start stats and I still like ERA as a stat. I always thought it a little incongruous that a win requires 5 innings pitched but a quality start needs 6 innings.
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