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Dantes929

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Everything posted by Dantes929

  1. Dantes929
    What you both say is all true but there is empirical evidence that Lynn and Cobb win playoff games. You say Ugh but small sample size is the argument for making the playoffs because anything can happen. Taking Darvish 10 out of 10 times is kind of meaningless. If you would take him one out of one times you would take him 100 out of 100 times. Doesn't mean he would be more successful 100 out of 100 times. Probably more successful 60 out of 100. Its why you would rather have him but not having him is not the same as having no chance.
  2. Dantes929
    Not arguing so much with your conclusion as your premise. Playoff performance. Alex Cobb 1-0 with 1.56 ERA Lance Lynn 5-4 and 7-4 in games he has started with a 4.5 ERA Yu Darvish 2-4 with a 5.81 ERA I agree that Darvish matches up better but that is just on paper. If either Cobb or Lynn had been on the Dodgers team this year instead of Darvish maybe LA wins the WS. How do Mejia and Gibson project to the same value of Lynn and Cobb when their history of success is so different?
  3. Dantes929
    Well, to be fair, we've been fooled by pretty much everything before. May and Berrios are go to examples of struggling early and then finding success but if someone does ok early we see that as a recipe for failure? I know. That's not exactly what you meant but he averaged 6 innings a start and 2.1 BB/9 in the minors. I see reason to expect more, not less. I'm not so concerned with plan B's. If they were strong options they would probably be plan A anyway. Puckett, Knoblach, Hunter, Span and Buxton did not have much for plan B behind them. With a little thought and research I am guessing I could come up with dozens more in a short time. Of course there are failures as well. Like I said, we've been fooled by pretty much every situation at one time or another. Injury and Molitor pulling him before he would have other guys account for some of the inning issues. His ERA plus was third in the rotation and would have been mostly 2nd and no worse than 3rd on every other team this decade except for 2015. If he does that again and is the 5th ERA+ this year I will consider that to be a very good thing and then we can talk about upgrading.
  4. Dantes929
    Why is Mejia a big if? I thought he was pretty decent aside from the biceps strain. His ERA was league average and his OPS+ for starters was behind only Santana and Berrios and better than Hughes career average. He's not dynamite but I will be thrilled when a 4.50 ERA isn't good enough to make the rotation. Very few teams can say that's the case.
  5. Dantes929
    Its not a new thing but the metrics are fairly new. I don't know how much faith to put into the metrics and if I put a lot of faith in them I am not so sure that ranking 32nd is all that impressive. Part of the value is if the pitchers have faith in it. Its not a new concept but metrics or not I think pitch framing is both a talent and a skill. For example I think I would stink at it no matter how much I worked at it but if I worked at it I would stink less. If Castor is naturally better at it than Susuki and also works at it more then he will be better at it. If that results in a sum total of two pitches a game that was either stolen or not given away it is probably worth it. Just kind of tough proving it.
  6. Dantes929
    Cobb/Lynn and its not even close. Just kidding. Really tough to analyze because you shouldn't just be looking at this year and you should still be looking at making the playoffs because doing well in the playoffs is still a crapshoot. Santana didn't do well in the playoffs this year but that doesn't mean he couldn't have. He pitched like an ace pretty much all year. If you look at the Twins playoff history and game 163's I don't think it has been the starting pitching that has been the problem. Make the playoffs first. I would rank them Darvish, Cobb and Lynn but ERA hasn't separated them though ERA+ does. I would still rather improve two spots than one but this is a little pointless. We are very likely to end up with none of them so I would be quite happy with any of them and am comfortable relying on Meija, May, Gonsalves, Romero to fill out the 5th spot and as backup for any that falter.
  7. Dantes929
    If the end up with Cobb I would be thrilled. I said as soon as the season ended that there were 30 teams looking for pitching and the supply was less than 10 so we were quite unlikely to end up with anyone. If we end up with Cobb and Reed that is a pretty huge add. Maybe it doesn't get us to the Indians but it definitely narrows the gap. Plus improvement should still come from within in the form of a confident Buxton a more mature Kepler and hopefully someone like Gonsalves. Cobb and Reed would really be an improvement. Santana, Berrios, Cobb, Gibson and Mejia. So much better than down the stretch last year.
  8. Dantes929
    How about Sale who has a 4.21 career ERA against the Twins vs Cobb who has a 3.43 career ERA against the Red Sox. Ok, I would rather have Sale but its really not that small of a sample size.
  9. Dantes929
    There is plenty of anecdotal evidence of you guys coming up and thriving so I have no problem with one of these guys starting the season with the Twins but both? First off, I think Meija has earned a spot and the top three are set. If we get a guy then it is Santana, said guy, Berrios, Gibson and Meija. If we don't get a guy then I think it is Gonsalves that gets first shot and see how Romero and May do after 2 months.
  10. Dantes929
    Nathan was fantastic against 28 other teams not named the Yankees. I might undervalue closers a little bit but recognize the great job Kintzler did for us for two years. In 2016 Perkins and Jepsen combined to blow a lot of saves early in the season which I thought was particularly demoralizing for a young team. Kintzler did a great job to start 2017 and would have been top 3 in my book for first half MVP. When we faced Rodney I always felt pretty good about our chances and am not thrilled with him being handed the closer job. I do like what the Twins did by signing Reed and maybe if we had signed him earlier we would have passed on Rodney. I haven't seen anyone complain about signing Reed. In fact, if all they did was sign Reed, keep Burdi, and sign either Darvish or Cobb I would have given them an A report card.
  11. Dantes929
    Runs in in two of three games is hardly confirmation. He was a huge reason we got to the playoffs though I certainly am not saying he is perfect. If you are taking larger, albeit still small sample sizes, Rodney has a 4.97 playoff ERA which does not include giving up 2 runs in 3 innings in game 163. Mostly, I am just saying I am not a huge fan of Rodney though of course, I hope I am wrong and that he does great for us.
  12. Dantes929
    Can Reed be the bullpen ace? Well, I certainly don't think Rodney will be. Burdi might have gotten there in a while. Reed was a great pickup. I think we will miss Kintzler a bit.
  13. Dantes929
    Shane Mack. Only 5 years or rather 4.5 since his monster 94 season was cut exactly in half by the players strike. However, he averaged 4 WAR per season and had an OPS that was exceeded by only a couple on the list above. Had the highest OPS on the 91 team. 7 more WAR than Cuddyer in half the seasons. Two more than Gagne in half the seasons.
  14. Dantes929
    Um.... Yeah. Make everyone play a certain way and it will make the really slow handful quicker and those that already are on a good pace are not affected. There are probably only a few golfers that are really slow but everyone is on the same clock. Why should the slow ones take up everyone's time? Yes, make everyone play a certain way. There is still room for a Buehrle to pitch at a faster pace. This just keeps players from pitching at a really slow pace. I don't know why anyone would have a problem with this. Maybe throw it out or add 5 seconds for the playoffs.
  15. Dantes929
    Yikes! Maybe ease them into it. 25 second clock for pitches this year and then knock it down to 20 next year. I liken it to golf. If a guy takes an extra 5 seconds between shots every once in a while its no big deal but if he does it every single shot it starts to wear on you and its not like the extra 5 seconds every shot even makes a difference in the final score. I am guessing if Altuve was ready for a pitch every 10 seconds without adjusting his gloves he would do just fine. There should be a nice sweet spot between being rushed and being too slow. I don't worry about how long a game takes but I really appreciate a good rhythm to the game.
  16. Dantes929
    Feels like they are always adding 5 or 10 seconds so to go backwards would be nice just to stop the bleeding so to speak. Does anyone know why the union did shoot this down? Do they value adjusting their batting gloves that much" I think it was Tom F that made the good point of if they are both a little rushed then it is still fair. I am sure most offenses in NFL would like a little more time to talk or think about plays but they manage. It seems like these clocks would be more than fair and as was pointed out if a guy is on first base a pitcher can always buy time by throwing over there. If there is not a guy on base then what is the holdup? I would be ok with the third visit of player, coach or manager initiating a pitching change and I love the idea of a reliever making his way to the field earlier. Seeing a manager point to the pen holding up an arm holds no value to me. Three warm up pitches should be enough also. Should be enough time for a 30 second commercial. Thyros said "I'd rather see them get rid of: character races, T-shirt canons, children's games, dedications to veterans, anthem choir and bands, and everything else non-baseball related between innings or before the first pitch, and then try to change the game." Agree with everything here except instead of getting rid of the canons triple the number and shoot them off as many times as possible for 30 seconds every half inning. T-shirts are not dangerous, catching them is fun and getting freebies are always nice. Just do it and don't make a production of it.
  17. Dantes929
    They figure he will slide past the bag once and that he will try to steal 2nd and 3rd on the same pitch a couple times and get caught once when Buxton is on his way to second and the catcher throws to 3rd.
  18. Dantes929
    Kintzler did a a fantastic job the first chunk of the season and Belisle did a fantastic job the second half. If Rodney can come close to the combined performance of those two in late innings I would be thrilled but also a bit surprised. If there is an upgrade I consider it to be this move (Reed) along with the emergence of Hildenberger. Vastly upgraded remains to be seen. I thought the Twins did a great job of closing out winnable games last year while getting destroyed in games where the chances of winning were low anyway. I appreciate that we now have more depth and hope it translates to more wins. We exceeded the pythagorean win projection last year. I am just hoping the improved depth gets us the same wins without needing to beat it in 2018.
  19. Dantes929
    Running speed is a skill as well as a talent. More focused stretching and speed training could probably get him back to 2015 levels. Building muscle or running for distance can affect sprint speed. If speed is his priority he can probably improve. I'd like to see it but it is not as essential to his game as it is for Buxton. If Buxton slows down I get concerned.
  20. Dantes929
    The Rox had Lou Brock and Gaylord Perry playing for them also. I think the catch Sunday maybe trumps Puckett because Puckett's homer didn't really surprise me. We had better than a 50/50 chance of winning at the time he hit it. Probably at least 70/30. It was a bigger moment but not a better finish in my book.
  21. Dantes929
    Nice signing, I think. Can we give Rodney back now or maybe trade him for Burdi?
  22. Dantes929
    I posed this question on another the Gordon page and its not rhetorical. Even at his very ceiling what does Gordon provide that Polanco does not? The projected 2021 lineup posted earlier has Gordon at 2nd base. Why so much love for Gordon and so little for Polanco?
  23. Dantes929
    Glass is half full and half empty. Its up to Gordon to move the needle. If he ends up being league average that is ok with me. League average is underrated. For example if we had league average at 7 spots in the lineup but Buxton and Dozier were exceptional we would have well above average lineup. I am still not sure what Gordon offers that Polanco does not.
  24. Dantes929
    Well, I'' make the case of sorts. As H20 pointed out getting Darvish might have cost the Dodgers the WC. Of course it is possible the Dodgers wouldn't have even gotten there without Darvish so who knows. I think the twins have the talent to make another WC appearance and I am a big believer in getting that chance. I like Berrios and Santana and have faith there are several others that can do well filling out the rotation. Maybe we sign Darvish to a big 6 year deal and he breaks his arm the 2nd game out but Romero fills in and becomes Mark Fidrych 2.0 or Gonsalves becomes Frank Viola 2.0. We might be 0 players away, we might be 6 players away. If we get Darvish or Cobb I will hope they are the answer. If we don't get them I will hope that is the best thing that could have happened because other guys stepped up.
  25. Dantes929
    Decent analysis on Cobb here. https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/12/12/16764788/alex-cobb-cubs-free-agent-starting-pitching-mlb-sign-contract-rumors-hot-stove I saw another article about how he gave up on his best pitch which was the splitter changeup because he didn't have the same feel for it but it might come back the farther removed from surgery. No sure thing but a shorter contract for less money with possibly upside if he gets that feel back. His numbers were also in the toughest division, IMO. He was my target from the get go and if they had gone after him the same way they went after Castro last year they might have gotten him for less money than what is now considered the market. I would prefer 4 years to Cobb for less money per year vs 6 years to Darvish but time will tell.
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