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Dantes929

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Everything posted by Dantes929

  1. Dantes929
    Tom provided really good details about how Gibson was unlucky. Two hits with about 10% probability is unlucky. Gibson has been pitching pretty well lately and even this game he kept within reach. Lead off walk is generally not bad luck though. I don't accept bad luck over the long term. Certainly applies in the short term.
  2. Dantes929
    There should be a happy medium in there somewhere. I would personally be happy if all he did was hit ground balls because contact with him is way better than no contact. He doesn't need fielders to rush throws even though he certainly does. Soft ground balls become hits, ground balls to the back hand become hits and sharp ground balls between fielders become hits. I just want him to hit the ball. He hit well in ST but maybe putting him in the 4 spot was the wrong thing because he really started swinging to hard and looked like he was trying to pull everything. Then he started the shortened swing thing going the other way but that didn't look natural either even though he got the average over .200. There should be a happy medium in there somewhere. He should be able to swing freer without over swinging and stepping in the bucket and he should be able to go with the pitch while still taking a decent swing.
  3. Dantes929
    PTI acted like the Central is a two team race but KC is right there. What is the biggest run deficit for a division champion and what is it for a WS champion? 87 team scored 20 fewer than they gave up. Lopsided losses don't bother me so much but the lack of competitive starts from the bottom of the rotation does. Puts a lot of pressure on Berrios, Santana and Gibson. Would not be shocked to get swept in Boston. I would have preferred Berrios not going against Sale. Would be ok with splitting the next two.
  4. Dantes929
    Maybe I was unfair and definitely ignorant. I missed the clamoring for Turley so was thinking he was just another of the not best options put out there for other political or operational reasons.
  5. Dantes929
    A quick search on limits of pitches or innings produces very little scientific evidence one way or another. It seems that the real reason for it is CYA. If you don't baby a pitcher and he needs surgery you can be blamed but if you do baby him and he needs surgery you can say "look at how I did everything I could to protect him". It sure seems like a pitcher that is shut down due to innings ends up tearing something the next Spring Training often enough any way. The only scientific evidence I saw suggested that it is not pitch count or number of starts or batters faced but rather innings worked that counts with the reasonable conclusion of sitting 10 minutes each half inning before having to go out there again being the critical factor. This makes some sense since when I am golfing and moving I am fine but if I have to wait 10 minutes for the group ahead of me and I sit while I wait, I definitely notice the difference in my muscles and joints. If I am active while waiting I might lose my swing rhythm but not out of stiffness. Maybe the very best way to protect arms is as simple as having the pitcher soft toss in between innings.
  6. Dantes929
    I was all for keeping Berrios in the minors because he had command issues even though still successful. Legitimate reason for not promoting. If there are legitimate reasons and things they are working on then that is the place to do it. No argument. As Seth said, they are just stats. I am not making a blanket statement in either direction. I just don't like it to be arbitrary or formulaic.
  7. Dantes929
    I would be right with you if we hadn't given Nick Turley 3 starts. In 2006 we promoted Matt Garza, arguably before he was ready but he still gave us a 3-6 record and a 5 ERA but it still might have given us one win over what the next guy would have done and I don't think it did him any permanent harm. It wouldn't have surprised me if they had said Liriano needs three more starts before he is ready for promotion but if they had we would have had three less awesome starts before he went down to injury.
  8. Dantes929
    I agree completely. I am not really pushing that any or all of them get promoted to the Twins. All three appear to be pitching fantastic in their last handful of starts which kind of shouts "I can do better than Nick Turley!" but if there are good reasons for them to be where they are then so be it. I just don't like the idea of saying "Hey, this guy has great command, three plus pitches, has thrown 6 great starts in a row but he is not ready. If he does the exact same thing for X number or more games, then he will be ready" Just appears arbitrary. If its not arbitrary then fine. If it is arbitrary then they might as well be getting over their major league jitters period rather than Turley.
  9. Dantes929
    I don't really love cautionary tales like "look what happened to Berrios" and go ahead and add May to the anecdotal evidence that young pitchers can't succeed right away and I still don't like it. Both of them over threw and were not doing the things they did in the minors that got them there in the first place. That doesn't mean Gonsalves will have major jitters that he won't overcome for another 3 months if he is promoted. I also don't understand how more months of doing the same domination is going to make them any more prepared than they are now. If they need to get their feet wet first then do it now. Seriously, if Bert Blyleven came here today as an 18 year old how long would it take to get him to the majors? I hope Santiago and Meija and Gibson do well but I am not super confident that they would do better than the three listed above.
  10. Dantes929
    Perkins went from being the main guy to keep us in the playoff hunt in 2015 to being a big reason for us not making the playoffs. Yeah, relievers give up runs and blow games and I expect it will happen more with Kintzler as well. If he loses it he will be replaced, but I don't believe his success has been just luck. if he gives up 3 ground ball singles for a run or two I hope people will recognize that there is a difference between pitching poorly and the other side simply earning runs. I like Kintzler because he seems to have the mentality. I recognize his limitations but strikeouts are not the be all with me. He will blow a couple saves, just like the Twins will get swept again. The key is coming back from it. So far, the Twins, and Kintzler, have been resilient.
  11. Dantes929
    I don't know if is true but Roy Smalley said by this time last year the Twins staff had already blown double digit saves and I am pretty sure they lost all of them. Kintzler blew 3 of them so far and I think we still won two meaning he gave up the tying run but still kept us in the game. The psychological deficit by struggling to get any offense at all and having few save opportunities only to have those blown anyway must have been tremendous last year. Momentum has a life of its own and I think it is a powerful thing for players to think that if they can get the lead into the late innings there is a very good chance of winning. Kudos not just to Kintzler but to Duffey, and Rogers also. Its probably happenstance but it seems like even the bullpen guys who are giving up lots of runs when coming in with a deficit are keeping it together when coming in with the lead.
  12. Dantes929
    Perkins, Jepsen and May come to mind. I really like Kintzler but also am skeptical that I will really like him in 2020, or 2019, or maybe even 2018. At least if he continues doing well we will reward him for the success he has had for us rather than the free agent who gets rewarded for success on a different team.
  13. Dantes929
    Because inducing weak contact, not giving up walks and executing pitches doesn't work in the playoffs? I am guessing you would have said that about Jeff Reardon back in the day. I thought it was more waving the white flag when we put Nathan in there to face the Yankees in the post season and he was the #2 reliever in the game. If we get to the playoffs I am way more concerned with getting to Kintzler than I am with what happens once we get there.
  14. Dantes929
    "The relief unit has let a number of games get away, but rarely has it happened under Kintzler's watch." Except they really haven't unless you are looking at games they were already likely to lose become games they had no chance in as your definition of games let get away. I am sure there have been some but the only two I can think of are the consecutive ones against the Rays and the Astros. The guy with the 10.6 SO/9 has actually been the least effective and is now gone (Pressley) which leads me to again conclude that not all 5.8 SO/9 guys are the same and you nailed it on the head when you said he executes his pitches. I am every bit as comfortable with him as I was with Perkins and Nathan. Yeah, they struck more guys out but they allowed base runners one way or the other also and always made you a little nervous. Kintzler keeps the ball in the park and also gets double plays when rallies appear to unfold. I can live with ground ball singles occasionally creating rallies. At least he makes them earn it.
  15. Dantes929
    Nice job bullpen. Hopefully Hildenberger can provide a little of the depth we lack. I
  16. Dantes929
    Since his demotion Gibson is 3-1 with a 4.56 ERA. I think he is throwing his curve ball more which is a good thing. Pretty much what we want out of a back of the rotation guy or even our 3 guy right now. Still think they should bring up Gonsalves. Pitching great and might as well get the 1st taste out of the way at a time when there is less pressure in the sense that all our other #4 and 5 options are getting blown away.
  17. Dantes929
    "Byron Buxton was 2-for-3 with a walk and another four-star catch". Went looking for the replay on MLB but could not find it. What happened?
  18. Dantes929
    Normally I would advocate for the fiery, high IQ and OBP guy but surprisingly the Twins are lower division for HR's and upper division for OBP so along with Rosario being hot we should probably table this discussion. Of course Revere comparisons are likely. How is Granite's arm?
  19. Dantes929
    Thanks for that research. The one play I wish the Twins had back this entire season was 5-3 lead against the Astros with one out and no one on in the bottom of the 9th and Buxton played conservative on a line drive that fell in front of him but looked catchable. He catches that and the Twins probably win, don't go extra innings and probably hold the large lead the next day with a rested bullpen and thus would still be in 1st place. Not really mad at Buxton since outfield defense has been a huge asset and difference maker this season but to point out one play could have made your stats look even better and to illustrate how fragile the balancing act is without depth in the bullpen.
  20. Dantes929
    I agree completely but I ask if Molitor deserves any credit for managing wins with just 3 good relievers. Also, the quote above about how refreshing it is for the bullpen to not blow a game is a common viewpoint but is misleading to me. Aside from the two games in a row against the Astros, the Twins pen really hasn't blown games. Putting in horrid ones has simply decreased already low odds of coming back in games . If we are down 6-1 in the 6th, how much does it matter that we lose 15-3? Yes, it would be absolutely awesome for a couple more guys to step up for the reasons you listed and also to allow for us to come back in games every once in a while. No argument there whatsoever.
  21. Dantes929
    I respect that quote since it was made despite the success of the move. I also respect any comment saying "Even though it didn't work out, Molitor made the right move". Ok, that has never happened (I mean the part about anyone saying that, not that Molitor has never made any good moves.) However, nice job bullpen. 1 run given up on a 98 mph heater on the corner to Abeu over 4 innings in a 9-7 win. Yes, Sano doing well is extremely important to our offense but the pythagorean formula says we should be 30-38. My view is that the bullpen has been absolutely horrible in games where we have been behind when they enter the game and likely to lose anyway and have been quite good at keeping leads. It explains a winning record despite a 42 run deficit. Molitor might deserve a little credit for that.
  22. Dantes929
    KC's record when not facing the Twins 33-29
  23. Dantes929
    Gonsalves, Jorge, Burdi, Romero. I'm with you. Lets see what they have.
  24. Dantes929
    Yeah, Twins are only a 3 game sweep of the White Sox and a couple losses by Cleveland before people say it again, if they actually did in the first place. . Gibson has been pitching better and if Santana and Berrios continue pitching well we are a long way from out of it. I don't recall anyone ever saying we were a WS contender but we are currently contending for the playoffs which is essentially the same thing I guess. When I saw the pitching match ups I was hoping for 2 wins, expecting one and not real surprised to get none. Our two best pitchers didn't pitch and our current 3rd best pitched fairly well. Indians have a good team and good pitching so this isn't a shock but these Twins have been fairly resilient and I am hoping they remain so. Look back on every team that has ever won a division title and I bet there aren't more than 10% that didn't get swept several times during the season and often by teams that were much worse. I am not saying the Twins will win the division but this weekend isn't proof that they cannot. Would be nice if another starter stepped up and the offense got going again. Win tomorrow and things might turn around again.
  25. Dantes929
    I don't know if you saw the preview on Bergman. He had a horrible start against the Nationals in bad weather where he gave up like 10 earned runs or something ridiculous like that. In all other starts aside from that one he has well below a 2.00 ERA this year. I thought our odds of winning that game were lower than almost any other this year with the way Gibson was pitching so far this year and how hot Seattle has been. We were lucky to beat him.
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