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Dantes929

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Everything posted by Dantes929

  1. Dantes929
    "It's natural to get overly excited about such a spectacular showing in the season's first three games. But what we saw from the Twins rotation in Baltimore was no fluke. This was by design." I would say its a little fluky at least. I'm more optimistic than most and the pitchers did look good but SSS and all against one team. I'm loving it but lets see where we sit after a few more series. Baker, Slowey and Blackburn had some nice three game stretches as well.
  2. Dantes929
    This being baseball I am guessing that we will get swept by someone we should beat at some point this month. 17-10 is not sustainable but realistic in the sense that it is reasonably possible but 17-10 is on a pace to win 102 games. Realistic while still being more probably is 14-13 which projects out to 84 wins. Since we are already 2-1 maybe 15-12 which projects out to 90 wins. Given Santana is out I think I would bank that 15 wins if offered in place of what we actually do.
  3. Dantes929
    I guess we should all temper our enthusiasm a little bit. I remember Blackburn had a nice 3 start stretch early in a season and everyone called him ace. Its just nice to see after the good stretch in the 2nd half last year. Just maybe cut him a little slack if he has a clunker or two also cuz everyone has em. Fans point out he should attack the zone more but while he was wild he really wasn't wild in the zone. He was hitting corners or was out of the strike zone. That many walks will not be a good recipe for success in the future. Keeping hitters off balance will be.
  4. Dantes929
    Our #4 and #5 starters... 12 innings of shutout ball. Suck it Cleveland!
  5. Dantes929
    While I applaud the use of a new fastball to keep batters guessing I don't think enough has been made of his breaking pitches. As I said in another post it used to look on TV like he threw the same stuff over and over again. Now its not just the 4 seamer they have to look for but a change up and a pretty nasty breaking ball as well. After his best start (and maybe the only good one) in the first half last year he talked about how he threw more curve balls than he ever had and I thought "alright. maybe the light has come on" but it must take a while to sink in because he didn't throw it again much until the 2nd half. All of a sudden he is using all the weapons we thought he had in the first place. And yeah... has anyone ever seen someone swing at a ball as far off the plate as the one Beckham swung at?
  6. Dantes929
    Over reliance on a sinker was part of Blackburn's problem also. I don't think it is a good sign when every pitch looks the same on TV. That was less the case last year. He will be the best #5 pitcher in baseball, which I guess will probably make him better than a #5.
  7. Dantes929
    Many extra base hits occur in situations we already concede a hit is better than a walk. 2/3 of hits are singles and I imagine a rather significant portion of the 43% of the time there are runners on base they are on 1st base or 1st and 2nd and only advance one base with a base hit. Most hits are singles and most singles happen with nobody on. I don't know how all those facts gel together but my original statement was in response to the statement that hits are worth more than walks which seemed to have the implication that they are always better. If you want to quibble about saying most of the time I will concede it with the acknowledgement that it is probably not much over 50% of the time. Hits are on average better than walks but walks are a base attained for the batter, advances any runner already on, is not making an out and increases the chances for the next guy batting. I don't think you need to discount the value of Mauer's walks. They are in addition to an excellent batting average and often a pretty good extra base hit %, not a replacement for them.
  8. Dantes929
    Yeah, in general I get it and when I first saw the box score I thought he should have been pulled but then I saw they hadn't touched him. He struck out all three guys he actually faced. I would be comfortable if he had been pulled as well but have I said this before.... he struck out all three guys he faced before that. Plus he struck out Davis after the triple and no one seems to have a problem with that. I don't know how meaningful it is that he averages less than an inning if he is a one inning guy that also sometimes comes in mid inning which will also reduce his pitch per inning. It was a bad pitch that gave up the triple. Was it caused by fatigue or was it just a bad pitch?
  9. Dantes929
    Hits are sometimes better than walks. If there is no one on or if runners only advance as far as they would with a single then walks have exactly the same value as a hit and maybe even more if the pitcher is effected in any way but issuing a walk. In Mauer's case a walk is less valuable than extra base hits and is sometimes less valuable than a single. For someone like Buxton a walk has almost the same value as a double except in terms of RBI. If Buxton ever gets to a .400 OBP he will be in the discussion for MVP regardless of how many hits he gets. Sacrifice fly might be a good result in many at bats but a walk doesn't really take away from that possibility. It just takes the possibility away from the guy being walked. Much of Joe's career it just gave the opportunity to Morneau, Thome or Cuddyer. Yes, if he walks he might create a double play possibility which would make a fly ball more valuable but in Joe's defense, he was often intentionally walked when that was the situation anyway.
  10. Dantes929
    I have watched the replay many times now. If there is one play that changed the game it was the strikeout pitch that wasn't caught. Unless he was crossed up that was a really poor effort on the part of Castro. If he makes an honest effort to block that pitch then we are not talking about Rodney, Molitor or Duke. If he had got in position to make the play and it still skipped away that is one thing. On the replay it really looked like he half assed it.
  11. Dantes929
    I'm not a fan of Rodney and think he was the worst get of the off season. That's not hindsight because I have stated it many times. I would love to be proven wrong but don''t fault Molitor too much about that. Subbing Grossman was an ok decision but not just because he got a seeing eye pop single. What about Duke was a mistake? He struck out 4 guys that innings and only one was a lefty. Before the triple he had three strikeouts and an intentional walk. No one had even put the ball in play. He then struck out the guy after the triple. If he had struck out Joseph's as well would any one be complaining? You said it was a mistake bringing him into a scoreless game. If that is because of a general distrust of him then that is a different story. Like I said, I have that feeling about Rodney. Unfortunate to have that kind of feeling about your closer.
  12. Dantes929
    Before Duke gave up the triple he had struck out three guys and gave up one intentional walk. After the triple he got his 4th strikeout. I tend to agree that a switch for Reed would have been reasonable but you know darn well that if Reed had come in and given up a 3 run homer there would be plenty of posters complaining about how Molitor was over managing and should have left Duke in because he had just struck out 3 guys and the only other guy that got on was intentionally walked (all right handed hitters I believe). I would be firmly in your camp if he had given up two hits or a couple unintentional walks. Leaving a guy in that no one has even put a ball in play against is defensible.
  13. Dantes929
    I'm the one that said it and I agree with you completely. A team playing poorly can beat a team playing well in a game though if you do the flow chart it is the least likely of outcomes. It still happens and maybe this game was one of those. I didn't see it so really can't judge. I'm just not a big fan of results only analysis. For example, I think the complaint about leaving Duke in is a valid one, all things considered but how many would be commenting on it if he had gotten out of the inning instead of giving up two runs? I might not agree with the guy that criticized Molitor for pinch hitting Grosman for Buxton but I respect it because he said it in spite of the fact that the move was successful. Its kind of like when Bert says a pitcher did well except for one mistake where the batter hit a home run. The guy might have thrown 20 pitches just like it or worse so is it really a mistake if the batter just happened to connect on one?
  14. Dantes929
    Walks are not quite as valuable as hits unless there is no one on, but they certainly are valuable and kind of Joe's calling card. Combined hits and walks leaves him 125 short of 3000.
  15. Dantes929
    I don't like that logic either way in terms of qualifying how well the team plays. You can work the count to get your pitch and then still pop up or swing through a fastball or hit a line out right at someone.. That's just baseball and does not fall under the category of playing well. 1-9 with RISP is meaningless to me in that regard. At least in my book you can play well and still get beat but if it is results based then you cannot. I don't know if they played well or not but on the surface the only things I can point to is their guy made a great catch that probably saved the game for them. We had a pitch where Castro may or may not have given full effort that cost us. Playing well means taking professional at bats, taking extra bases where you can and not trying for those that are unlikely to succeed, hitting cutoffs, etc.. Take care of the little things and basically don't beat yourself. To me that is playing well. A team can play well and still get beat.
  16. Dantes929
    I always thought I was an optimist but maybe I am just a contrarian because I have a hard time being optimistic on a board full of posters that are fairly optimistic. My choice is to either say 100 wins or 76 wins. I think it interesting that all but 3 posters have the Twins at 90 wins or better while the staff come in with an average of 88.5. I think if the over/under were 86.5 I would have a tough choice. As far as Vegas is concerned the line is 82.5. Things still have to go right for the Twins to get in the mid 80's or above but I would put $100 on the over. Can someone do that for me please? Buxton will win Offensive player narrowly beating out Mauer who will compete for the batting title. Stealing bases, power and about a .350 OBP will give Buxton the nod. Sano with most homers. Lynn as starter of the year Reed as reliever of the year Romero as rookie of the year
  17. Dantes929
    Buxton is a little bit slump proof because of his bunting skills. I think that kept him afloat long enough for his other offensive skills to transition last year. I think it might be worth while for Kepler to work on that skill as well. Several years ago I was promoting Hicks to be the right handed batter in n outfield platoon. He would look pretty good in a platoon, 4th outfielder spot right now. At the time I never thought he would hit as a lefty and would have been happy to be proven wrong. Now not so happy that he is proving me wrong with the Yankees.
  18. Dantes929
    About the same level of concern I would have if they were #1 in ST. You want them to have confidence but baseball is so cyclical that a super hot ST means it will probably shortly swing back to a swoon. So often when the Twins are hot around the all star break I find the break annoying because it breaks the momentum. Sometimes I look forward to it for the same in reverse situation. ST is done. They get a couple days to shake off the stats from the poor showing and start fresh.
  19. Dantes929
    Slight distinction between being a 4th outfielder and being a back up outfielder. Granite appears to be our plan for regular starter should any of our three go down to injury. Basically insurance. Is a guy like that better prepared to be an every day starter for a few weeks by playing every day in the minors or will he be better prepared to be an every day starter by facing big league pitching sporadically as a 4th outfielder. As I said it is a slight distinction but one I think the Twins are considering. If each of our outfielders get 10 days off and Grossmann starts half of those then that reserve outfielder only starts one in 10 games. The rest of the time is running and fielding replacement. It has value but probably not much WAR difference between Granite and LaMarre in that SSS.
  20. Dantes929
    .263 ave with a .340 OBP. Or I can cherry pick and say the last time he had over 200 at bats was 2016 in AAA where he hit .303 with a .445 slugging. I am not advocating for him as a regular. I am not even advocating for him as a reserve. Just I am ok with the Twins giving him a shot. Its not like they are penciling Jason Bartlett to play center field.
  21. Dantes929
    I wish we had added a RH OFer as well. I always advocated for keeping Hicks as a platoon outfielder. if there was a right handed doppleganger for Kepler I would have been ok with a trade. Heck, if there was a right handed doppleganger for Granite I would prefer it but if there are good proven right handed outfielders out there they probably want more than 1 or two starts a week. Its not like LaMarre was a bad hitter in the minors. I'm ok whether they keep him or send him down at this point. The problem is that he is on a nice role right now but it hard to keep that momentum going with just an at bat or two here and there.
  22. Dantes929
    So he is a year older than guys that are really pretty young. He doesn't profile so well on some scouting sites but here is one take. "According to KATOH, Zack Granite is the No. 6 prospect — not on the Twins, but in all of baseball. Yes, slappy, scrappy, little Zack Granite ranks ahead of famous sons Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., to drop a couple names, and 17 spots ahead of Royce Lewis, the Twins’ top prospect and the first overall pick in last year’s amateur draft. Baseball America and MLB Pipeline think there are 26 Twins prospects better than Granite; KATOH thinks there are only five superior prospects in the whole dang sport. Here’s Mitchell’s explanation for why KATOH loves Zack Granite entering the 2018 season: Granite’s back for his second tour of duty on the All-KATOH team, and frankly, his prospect case has only improved. He’s still a speed demon who plays elite center-field defense, which takes most of the pressure off of his bat. But more importantly, his offensive numbers took a huge step forward in 2017, as he hit a ridiculous .338/.392/.475 in Triple-A with an elite 11% strikeout rate. He’s also 6-foot-1, which some might find surprising given his style of play." I truly believe he is the guy if one of our regulars goes down and I would rather him getting 20 at bats a week in the minors than 4 per week in the majors in preparation for that role. Judgement call. I am fine with him as the reserve outfielder also.
  23. Dantes929
    I've seen variations of this many times in the past such as "No team that is a serious contender would ever have a place for a guy like Nick Punto or Drew Butera" and then they move on and make teams that win championships. In fact, I think most teams do have that kind of guy or even a few of that guy. I am not advocating for LaMarre based on the cute story. If he is above average defense and if he is a good base runner then that potentially has value any given day in the late innings. If you want a right handed pinch hitter for Kepler, even if it is Grossman then you still want LaMarre in as defense. If the roster is constructed a certain way he may fit in with his skill set and he may not. Most reserves have flaws or they wouldn't be reserves. Granite might be a better reserve but if they want him playing every day as the insurance against a regular getting hurt then it makes sense to have someone else as a reserve with the Twins. I agree with you completely about questioning whether he is a fluke or legit. I like the ideas of guys reinventing themselves and the light turning on even in the late 20's but the ST training stats themselves should be taken with a grain of salt. I am reasonably sure he is not a true 1.307 OPS guy. If he is sent down it will be interesting to see what he does in the minors.
  24. Dantes929
    Will take a bit to get used to that picture. I was thinking more Walter Matthau or Jack Klugman instead of a guy young enough that he might not even know to whom I am referring.
  25. Dantes929
    Congrats Tom. Looking forward to reading your recaps this season.
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