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Dantes929

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Everything posted by Dantes929

  1. Dantes929
    Most play in games to win a WS then?
  2. Dantes929
    Well, I would take the way Gibson is pitching right now over Les Straker even though I liked Straker. I have often taken both sides on Blyleven based on whether I thought he was getting too much or too little credit for what he did. I jumped in on the needing two dominant starters part. Of course it helps to have great starters but there are a lot of ways to skin a cat and a lot of different cats to skin different ways. I have read that you need home run hitters because the pitching is too good to have extended rallies by playing small ball and that you need two dominant starters to have a chance in the playoffs so what I really should have cited was the 2015 Royals. Now maybe they were an out flyer but I look at the 87 Twins that way also. There were arguably 8 or more teams that were better that year. They are the team I would always point to when giving the current team a chance. 91 was more legit. That was just a solid team all the way around. Anyway, playoffs are SSS. Its why guys like Billy Martin and Bucky Dent and Gene Larkin along with hundreds of other non stars have been playoff heroes.
  3. Dantes929
    Look at their monthly stats. Belisle has had a much better 2nd half of the season also. I'm not discounting Reardon's value but the reason for his value wasn't how good he was but how good he was compared to the other guys on the relief staff and how good he was compared to what they had the year before. They had lost tons of games where they had led or were tied after 7 innings in 1986 so Reardon was extremely valuable because he was competent rather than that he was great. Its why Berenguer was so valuable also. And then yes,Reardon had a very good September. He was good but he still gave up runs and he still gave up leads. Its just that an 80% success rate was what that team needed. I also grant that the role was different but if that team had had a Kintzler, Belisle, Rogers and Hildenberg Reardon would not have stood out.
  4. Dantes929
    I guess I will quibble. He kept teams in ball games and benefited from having a pretty good offense himself. That is what the 23-14 record tells me. Great value in that and there were times in his career that he was dominant. I just don't think that he was that year and I didn't think it at the time. I thought he was a good pitcher but there wasn't a playoff game that he started where I thought we had a better than 50/50 chance of winning because he was going against pitchers as good or better, IMO. Viola was dominant and Blyleven was good. Nothing wrong with that. I still believe good pitchers are capable of throwing great games. If you are going to call him dominant then we have at least two dominant pitchers on this current team. Berrios and Santana both have OPS+ north of 115
  5. Dantes929
    Great stat and TY but what is Buxton's success rate against lefties? Also, this strengthens the case that statistically Buxton should have tried stealing instead of sacrificing but do you think he knew those stats at the time? All he sees is a lefty.
  6. Dantes929
    It might not have been his idea but with a lefty on the mound I am guessing he thought he had a decent chance of getting on by bunting down the 1st base line. I love fast guys bunting for hits. Its one of the more exciting plays and I don't think major leaguers and particularly pitchers, do a great job of defending it.
  7. Dantes929
    Viola was awesome but what about 1987 Reardon separates him? 8-8 record and 4.48 ERA.
  8. Dantes929
    You are basing dominance based on wins? Why not losses which would put Blyleven behind all Cards pitchers or ERA which would put him behind 3 of them? Also, Berrios has 12 wins in 23 starts to Blyleven's 15 wins in 37 starts. Obviously, Berrios is on a way better pace. Santana is already at 15 wins. Are you saying we already have two dominant starters?
  9. Dantes929
    Your point is fine except they brought in a lefty to face Rosario and maybe as much to keep Buxton from stealing. I couldn't find the stats but I know he isn't 25-26 with a lefty on the mound. It was a great bunt and one of the reasons it worked was because it was a lefty on the mound. I think Rosario wanted to move the runner but not convinced he was thinking sacrifice. 1st and 2nd and no outs was a great result. Some have suggested now was the time to bunt but I was thinking now is the time for a double steal. Worst case scenario is guy on second with 1 out. Best case, 2nd and 3rd with no outs.
  10. Dantes929
    Blyleven was 15-12 with a 4.01 ERA. Is that dominant?
  11. Dantes929
    Do relievers qualify for big status? Busenitz and Hildenberger look pretty decent. When we resign Kintzler will he qualify?
  12. Dantes929
    There are losing teams and there are losing teams. The ones the Twins have played are those that are within a game or so of .500 and also playing for the WC spot and 7 of those were on the road. Really not so bad when you consider the Twins are barely above .500 themselves. Odds makers would probably have said we should win 6.5 of the games in September thus far. We don't know what is imperative to close out the schedule. There is a very good chance that 8-9 will get it done but always the possibility of someone getting really hot and making 10-7 not good enough. If I could bank 9-8 I would but like I said we don't know what it will take.
  13. Dantes929
    4 teams would be kind of cool. I don't want the Twins to just win the WS. I want them to also set a record for most postseason wins in one year.
  14. Dantes929
    I don't care to do the math but since there are a fair amount of games left with wild card hopefuls playing wild card hopefuls what would be the fewest wins possible for a team to make the WC. Now statistically all of the teams are pretty close to .500 after 144 games or so and would be projected to go 50/50 from this point so the Twins could go 8-10 from this point, win 83 games and edge out the Angels or go 7-11 from this point with a play in to WC game. Of course looking at it statistically reminds me when three statisticians went out hunting, and came across a large deer. The first statistician fired, but missed, by a meter to the left. The second statistician fired, but also missed, by a meter to the right. The third statistician didn't fire, but shouted in triumph, "On the average we got it
  15. Dantes929
    From your summary it looks like it is also reasonable that 84 or even 83 wins could be enough.
  16. Dantes929
    At the trade deadline they were less than 7%. I said they were just a modest winning streak (5 of 6 or so) from quadrupling that percentage. Of course, they had to actually go on that modest winning streak. Same thing here. Its a little better than a coin flip because they have a 2 game lead and a weak schedule but they have to actually win those weak schedule games not to mention there are other teams that can go on a decent winning streak. Fun times.
  17. Dantes929
    I'd be happier if he pitched a lot the rest of the season and did well.
  18. Dantes929
    2 of 4 at KC only hurts because we won the first two. Its really not a bad reesult. I hate days off when the Twins have been on a good streak. This break probably comes at a good time.
  19. Dantes929
    The bullpen has held countless leads this year for which they generally do not get much credit. No one ever knows if one run is enough but it is reasonable to play for 1 run in the 8th inning. The issue many have on here is that playing for 1 run, based on statistics and probability, is not enhanced by sacrificing an out by your #3 hitter to get the guy to second. In Molitor's defense, if he gets his run in the 8th perhaps he uses hit bullpen differently in the bottom of the inning. I would give the bullpen decent grades in holding leads late in games. In a tie game you still have to imagine that it will go extra innings . Of course using 5 guys in one inning doesn't further that theory.
  20. Dantes929
    "Sometimes a manager pushes all the right buttons and pulls all the right levers and things still just don’t work out. This doesn’t feel like one of those times, at least not to me. Is hindsight 20/20? Am I way off base? You’ll have to let me know." Not way off base. Maybe blamed Boshers too much and Pressley not enough. Apparently Pressley has occasionally been good because I have read about it but have never seen it. Maybe I need to turn away when he comes in. Some of it is luck. Catro 3 at bats and only one mattered. In the two that didn't matter he got hits and popped up in the one that did. Maybe a little bad luck but more a bad slide that got Rosario out stealing the first time. If base hits had scored the runners that were sacrificed over and Pressley had done his job maybe we would feel differently about it so some of it is on the players and some of it is hindsight but I think enough TD fans were saying No! at Molitor's moves before they happened to rule it all to hindsight.
  21. Dantes929
    Not arguing that particular instance. Not even arguing for sacrificing a guy to second in general since I did say I agree that it is not a high percentage play. Just saying there are some advantages to doing it, ie scoring position and staying out of double play, which is why it has been done for a century. Advanced stats now say don't do it. I doubt the stats are that lopsided but over time small percentages make a difference.
  22. Dantes929
    Lets not pretend there is no value to getting a guy to second especially when you don't do it and the 2nd guy bats into a double play. Guy on second with 1 out is way different than no one on and two outs. I mean that is the main reason for doing it. I agree its not a good percentage play though. The fact that most pro teams don't field bunts much better than high school teams is offset by the fact that pro hitters are no better than high schoolers at actually getting the bunt down.
  23. Dantes929
    Kind of left off Oliva's 3 batting titles and GG. Sorrento?
  24. Dantes929
    He's Puntonian!
  25. Dantes929
    For me its more about the journey so I agree with this. If it were all about the destination I wouldn't tune in until late September. Football is different for me. If the Vikings are in the hunt with two games to go in the season that is when I become a fan. Twins have been fun this year.
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