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Dantes929

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Everything posted by Dantes929

  1. Dantes929
    Hey Tom. What does catch probability mean exactly? I thought it meant the odds that a ball gets caught by any centerfielder but there is no way that Kipness liner gets caught 24% of the time even by Buxton himself. It might have been his best ever so 24% catch probability just seems ridiculously high which makes me think I it doesn't mean what I think it means.
  2. Dantes929
    His success rate last year proved that he cannot actually out run a thrown baseball. He still needs a good jump. Also, there is theory that him being on 1st is a disruptive force to the pitcher and that the batter will get better pitches to hit because of it. If he has the 99% chance because he sometimes waits around and is thus unpredictable then that would be the reason for waiting around. Does beg the question though. If he is disruptive and the other team concedes that he is going to get the steal no matter what can they simply give him a pass to 2nd base like they now do for intentional walks?
  3. Dantes929
    Thank you. Just to be on the safe side I will plan to not get any work done on either day.
  4. Dantes929
    I thought it was pretty important. Gets us closer to clinching, was important for home field advantage for Cleveland and it lets us know that even with Colon starting and our entire bullpen on display the team is at least capable of beating the hottest team in baseball Tom. Please tell me that Thursday start time is wrong.
  5. Dantes929
    Maybe not with champagne but I am guessing they celebrate. I've never cared for the idea of setting sights on a World Series title in anything but the broadest sense. I remember in the spring of 2010 Cuddyer said the goal was to win the WS. Just seemed like the cart before the horse because you can't win the WS in March, or April or any time during the regular season but you can lose it in the regular season by not making the playoffs. 162 games of paving the way to make the playoffs is an accomplishment well worth celebrating even in the next 5 years when we think we might be good. There are 20 teams that have invested everything they've got for the last 162 games that are on the outside looking in. Of course you celebrate.
  6. Dantes929
    Since we are talking about the low odds of us losing all the remaining games while those behind us have to win all their games I might as well point out that if we run the table and the Yankees lose the rest of their games we get home field.
  7. Dantes929
    I agree. I will be quite upset if we have a lead in the 9th inning and Molitor puts in Joe Nathan.
  8. Dantes929
    #5 reminds me of a parade i was at where a politician had volunteers handing out pamphlets with her picture on it and then she would follow along shaking hands. When she got to me I told her she looked familiar and she stopped and said "yeah, you look familiar too". Then I looked down at the picture I had been given 10 seconds earlier and said "Oh, that's why" I voted for her despite the name she called me. #5 also reminded me of this. https://www.google.com/search?q=matt+harvey+asks+about+matt+harvey&oq=matt+harvey+asks+&gs_l=psy-ab.1.0.0.195199.196208.0.202017.6.6.0.0.0.0.223.422.0j1j1.2.0....0...1.1.64.psy-ab..4.2.420....0.ciaa5Pwi9KM
  9. Dantes929
    I don't think there has ever been consensus on that approach though I don't disagree with it. 87 team lost their last 5 before the playoffs and I didn't get the sense they were trying all that hard.
  10. Dantes929
    You are right. We still have to beat the Yankees to even have the discussion about the Indians. They have been an astounding 29-2 in their recent hot streak but that is the thing about hot streaks. They come to an end. Look at the Dodgers this year. Starting to be called a Super Team and then lost 16 of 17 games. There is some pressure on a team that comes in super hot. Indians are much more the team that was 10-6 against us than the team that has been 29-2 even though the 29-2 blinds people to the idea.
  11. Dantes929
    Kluver is 8-5 against the Twins lifetime with a very good but not insurmountable 3.31 ERA. He is 0-0 against the Twins this year even though he did not allow a run in 7 innings. A game the Twins won by the way so I wouldn't go so far as saying we have no chance. When against a superior team I am not opposed to arranging our own rotation to match up differently than 1vs1, 2vs2, etc.
  12. Dantes929
    Colon over Mejia? I don't get it. For the season Mejia is almost a full run better. Colon has one good month all year which was August and a 4-1 record. September he was 0-4 with a 9.47 ERA so not only has his season been bad he is trending even worse. I never believed in him but appreciate the good month that we got. We needed it but it was an illusion.
  13. Dantes929
    "Santana went over 200 innings in his last start" That is too many. They should have limited him to 9.
  14. Dantes929
    Mejia. Not Colon. Mejia, Not Santiago. I am fine with Mejia. He would actually be the Les Straker of this team. No Viola, but right now I would say we have 3 guys throwing in the 87 Blyleven vicinity. How is Trevor May doing? I would put him before Colon or Santiago.
  15. Dantes929
    I am more of a journey guy and I think you are also. If I were a Yankees fan I might still follow the team when they signed the three best players on the free agent market (Texeira, Sabbathia, Burnett) and probably be happy when they won the WS. Likewise when Durant signed with Golden State. Being a fan of those teams does not compare with the joy of following the Royals of 2 and 3 years ago or the 87 Twins or worst to first 91 Twins. If these Twins lose against the Yankees I will accept that as part of the definition of being the underdogs but when the small odds do pay off it is tremendously satisfying. These Twins have already beat much greater odds and playoff spots are never guaranteed. In fact I am still pretty bummed that the 08 team lost the playin game because even though they had small chance, they still had a chance. I will accept losing but this is their chance to be that 2014 Royals team and do something special and that is what I watch sports for.
  16. Dantes929
    I couldn't find the original blog so don't know if I had responded.. I don't expect it to count but on at least one of the blogs I predicted a range of 70-95. Shouldn't count but I at least recognized the upside.
  17. Dantes929
    Sorry. Just not there yet. I see a 10% chance of not making the playoffs. See what a 2 game losing streak coupled with a 3 game win streak by one of the chasers does to the odds. Keep in mind when our odds were 6% at the trade deadline I said see what a modest winning streak can do to the odds. I guess when others see a glass 90% full I see one 10% empty and when others see a glass 90% empty I see one 10% full. I like Escobar but for whatever reason do not like watching him play. Doesn't mean I don't appreciate him. Morneau in what was looking like a lock for another MVP in 2008, slumped in the last month. Probably due to playing through a stress fracture but replacing him for that last month probably would have gotten us into the playoffs. Similar here to if Sano was playing in pain or even simply slumped and was in the middle of this order for this past month our playoff hopes might be greatly diminished because not only has Escobar been producing, he has been producing in big spots. MVP award could simply go to our third baseman for the combined efforts of Sano and Escobar. Escobar seems like a really good guy by all accounts but the same could be said about the entire team. They are all quite like able. Worst things I have heard about this team is that Mauer might be overpaid, Sano is a little overweight and Molitor bunts too much. They are easy to root for and I might mention the frosting on the cake is that pretty much all of them have come up through our system. Reading about them on TD for the last several years and now seeing what they can do has been awesome.
  18. Dantes929
    I would not put Colon on the playoff roster (KOW, KOW, KOW). It would be like Hernandez in 08. Nice job. Thank you for your efforts. They were very valuable. Its time to go.
  19. Dantes929
    I made that point the other day that if Garcia had not been traded maybe Gibson is still in the minors. Probably not completely true but maybe he comes up and faces the Dodgers or Indians and never gets into a groove. What I have noticed in his bad streaks is that he looks like the bad Nick Blackburn where everything looks like the same speed. He's got really good breaking balls so what I see in his good games are a lot of those. I do think the 4 seamer helps though.
  20. Dantes929
    Used to be I was fast enough that when the 2nd baseman said something nasty as I was rounding 2nd base I would slap the 3rd baseman in the catcher's mouth. Nowadays I run on the treadmill for an hour and look down to realize its only been 5 minutes.
  21. Dantes929
    KC also.
  22. Dantes929
    But you said Molitor pulled Mejia too soon and he has done it more than once. Chief said he wished the exact opposite. You said he pulled him too soon and Chief said he did the exact right thing. You said you and Chief are saying the same thing when you said the opposite. In fact here is your first quote "Molitor is weird... Pulling the starting pitcher after 4 2/3 innings so he can't get the win when the tying run is not at the plate. He has done this more than once to young pitchers, pulling them when they have just 1 out to go to get the win." I am thinking about what is truly being said here. I don't know how to interpret it other than that you think he pulled the pitcher too early and that he has done it more than once. You both referred to a very specific game, had the opposite opinion, which is fine. Its the conclusion I don't get. You can say again that Molitor pulls pitchers too late and too soon which may or may not be true but you can't convince me he can do them both on the same play.
  23. Dantes929
    Sorry. I can't let this go. You think Molitor pulls pitchers too early and Chief thinks he pulls them too late and you think you are making the same point? Many thought Gardy pulled pitchers too early and many thought he pulled them too late. Many thought Kelly pulled pitchers too early and many thought he pulled them too late. I actually respect your opinion in this case because you said he pulled him too early even though it worked out fine. Most times fans criticize a manager is the hindsight factor. I said most. Anyway here is a list of managers that have known when to pull a pitcher and when to leave him in. 1. That's the whole list.
  24. Dantes929
    Just realized that if you don't count the losing streaks above last year we had a winning team. How's that for putting lipstick on a pig?
  25. Dantes929
    Yeah but what happens when he becomes the Brendan Harris of game recappers?
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