Dantes929

Not hard for me. its all part of the game but to say it doesn't have an impact or that it all evens out is just silly. They gave up more than 10 runs also. I guess if the score was 1-0 you could say its hard to blame the umpire when your offense can't even score a run. Fact is whether it is 0-0 or 15-15 an umpire's call shouldn't be the difference maker. Not saying for sure the Yankees woudln't have come back anyway but the Twins should have been out of that 8th inning with the lead. The pitch before the walk was borderline and no complaints. The pitch that walked him was not borderline and was a difference maker. It is what it is. Guy blew a call and it is not overturnable. When we get those calls I recognize it for the gift that it is.

Thorpe and Smeltzer will both get the September call up at a very minimum. It wouldn't surprise me if they both got spot starts and it wouldn't surprise me if one, I am guessing Smeltzer, doesn't take over a spot in the rotation within a month.

I didn't even realize he was still with us.

I think it had to run its course though I respect the opinion that we could have added one or two in the off season and since then.. As long as the rotation and the offense was doing great the pen was able to hold it together and I still think they did a pretty good job in that period. Now we have some young guys that did well for their brief appearances and I think the front office is going to rely on at least 1 if not two to continue to impress and that they need to add two more for the 4 lost. Nothing cures a 5-7 stretch like a winning streak and I think the Twins have a couple of those left. Lets win tonight and feel better.

I already think Schmeltzer is better than Parker and optimistic that Thorpe and Stashak can be better than Magill and Morin. I would be thrilled to get Kennedy and any other upgrade that does not cost us a top 3. Along those lines, is there any reason at all to think Graterol can get back on the mound in the next couple weeks? or several weeks? I have said before I don't want to trade him for an answer. I want him to be the answer. I am coming around on the idea of him and Gordon for Stroman cuz the rotation is still a good way to alleviate the stress on the pen. My confidence in Perez and Odorizzi has waned.

On further reflection I think I do have an agenda. It started in 2010 when Jesse Crain went 31 innings in 35 appearances giving up only 1 run mostly in high leverage situations down the stretch of a playoff run and went unnoticed. Then gave up 1 run in 2 innings in a 10-9 loss and posters called for his head. Made me realize just how little fans notice when set up guys get the job done and how much blame they place when they don't. So I guess I have a soft spot for those guys. I have never been against improving the bullpen and , in fact, want it improved but still maintain that if we make the playoffs and have the same pen I would not wave the white flag and give up hope as so many here say they would. Games are won and lost in many ways and many world series teams have had flaws.

I have consistently maintained that the bullpen has done a decent job to this point and has contributed to many of the team's victories which seems to be overlooked. I have consistently maintained that I want the bullpen to be improved but that it is just one element of the game and that we can still win with what we have if the rotation, defense and offense do their jobs well and that even good bullpens give up leads. I have consistently maintained that I don't want to trade Graterol and Thorpe, etc for answers but that I want them to be the answers along with any rentals we can get for cash or less than top prospects. Of course, the pen was the reason from a playing perspective for the reason we lost Tuesday. Of course it is annoying that the none playing part had such a possibly large impact. It can be both and you and every other poster have laid sufficient blame on the pen. Consider the last 12 games. Pen gave up 0 runs in 5.1 innings in a 5-3 come from behind win. Next the pen gave up 1 run in 3.2 innings in a mostly close win against Cleveland. Next game pen gave up 1 run in 3 innings in a 4-3 loss. I would say offense, starter and pen were responsible in that order. (lets ignore defense and for these purposes). Next game against the Mets the pen gave up 0 runs in 3 innings in a 3-2 loss. Next game we lost 14-4 and that was all on the pen. Next game the pen gave up 0 runs in a late comeback 6-3 win. Next game the pen gave up 2 runs in 4 innings in a 5-3 loss. I am guessing starters, pen and offense can take equal blame. Next game pen gave up 4 in 3.1 in a 5-4 loss so can take the blame in that one. Next game the Twins won 7-6 and the pen gave up 2 in 3.1. Next game the Twins won 8-6 and the pen gave up 1 run in 4 innings. Tuesday's game was all on the pen. Last night's game the pen gave up 1 run in 5 innings. In summary in its worst stretch the pen blew 3 games out of 12 and were very key in all 5 wins. If you look at all or nearly all my consistent posts you will see that I want a better and deeper pen. I'm not a moron. I simply recognize that it is just part of what makes up wins. In several of our losses the offense didn't do the job. In several the starters didn't do the job. In several of our come from behind wins the other bullpens gave up leads. Everyone wants a better bullpen. If I have an agenda it is mostly just to be contrarian.

I'm not necessarily sold on any of the three new guys. I maybe have the most confidence in Smeltzer. Thorpe's minor league numbers tell me he might have control issues. Stashak has struck out a ton of guys so we know he misses bats but his ERA and seeing some of his pitches makes me think he gets too much of the plate too often. Juan Ricon, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Pat Neshek, Glen Perkins, Taylor Rogers all came from somewhere. Magill, Morrin and Parker are gone and I think the three new guys might be an upgrade. Magill and Morrin are both on other major league teams and one is a contender. Would not surprise me if Parker lands on a contender either. Every team either needs help or is a week or two away from needing help. 30 teams times 7 or 8 relievers is around 222. One third of that is 74. Are there even that many good relievers in the entire league? I am fine with giving those three guys a chance.

Um, yeah. What difference does it make whether we had a big lead or how many runs were scored? If the score was 1-0 at the time would you agree that the umpire's call was a difference maker? How is this any different? We had a 1 run lead and would have been out of that inning. Duffey threw well enough to get that result. That blown call very likely was the reason scoring double digits was not enough. This was an extra inning game so every run counted and was a potential difference maker. I wasn't happy with Rogers walking their 9th place guy or giving up runs but give them credit for coming back and give credit for the Yankees making plays and batting well but that is supposed to be what decides the game. Yankees gave up a lot of runs early and their pen gave up leads late. If you think the Twins didn't deserve to win why do you think the Yankees did deserve it? Of course games can be lost on umpire"s calls. I am pretty sure you agree with that.. Why is this different?

Whoops! Add Duffey. Subtract Stewart.

Thorpe, Smeltzer, Stashak have passed the test so far. They all seem to have good presence and stuff. All relievers give up runs. All of them. So don't expect these three to be perfect but I certainly like what I have seen from them. Add in Rogers, May, Harper and Littell. I am not so down on Stewart either but like him in long relief. I would like at least one guy in the pen that can eat up innings for short starts.

Games are won in lost in all sorts of ways. It is a myth that a team needs a shutdown bullpen to succeed in the playoffs. The game yesterday was lost by the Twins on an umpires call. It was won by the Yankees on a fantastic catch by Hicks. Yankees pen certainly gave up runs and Oakland got crushed in their next game because they used up all their bullets on the Twins. Few teams, if any, are happy with the team they have. Besides which, are we sure we haven't found the answer? By are the two best relievers the last two days have been Thorpe and Stashak. Schmeltzer looked good when he was up also. Keep the young guys up, walk fewer guys, keep hitting and play better defense. That would be my fix. No short series really proves anything.

I might suggest the Yankees shouldn't get preferential treatment at home AND on the road.

Every bad call affects the game but not in the same way. Just like the playoffs two years ago where Santana had the third strike on Gregoriius that turned into a three run home run, this one should have ended an inning instead of giving Gregorius an at bat with bases loaded. Not as much impact when it happens to the 8th batter with bases empty on the first pitch. The pitch before the walk was a curve ball that was pretty borderline. I said out loud to my wife "he should throw the exact same pitch but three inches higher" In my opinion he executed the perfect pitch because it was nasty but not so close that it should have been subject to human error. Duffy got hosed. Theoretically all blown balls and strikes change at bats and thus change games but they are hardly created equal.

I should add that playoffs have more days off so relying on Harper and Rogers or Pineda, etc is more reasonable than relying on them to carry the full load in the regular season. I want better relievers as well. Don't care to give up a lot in terms of prospects for them and want them more to fight off Cleveland than worrying about how they might do in the playoffs.. We can have different views but I stand by my opinion that you will be crossing fingers and toes no matter who we have out there. I don't recall any 1 run game in Twins history where I thought "this game is over" with an inning left to play. Nathan made me nervous, as did Perkins, Buerenguer, Reardon, Guardado and Aquillera.

Thin air but reasonable I think. One site had them at plus 950 which I think means better than 1 in 10. Another site had them at 15/1 but that is all from where we stand now. If we make the playoffs it will be as a wild card play in game or as division champs. Hard to give double digits chances to any wild card entrant. Once they make the full playoffs the odds are likely close to one in 8 but the odds of winning the wild card game is still roughly 1 in 2. I give a nod to those that think the Twins odds are reduced significantly by having a weak bullpen though there are those that think the starting pitching hurts also by giving them slightly worse odds than the 1 in 8 (12.5%) With a bolstered bullpen I still have a hard time giving them better odds than the Yankees, the Astros, the Dodgers, etc. which puts them back to 12.5% at best. Playoff games are won and lost in all matter of ways. Umpire calls, home field advantages, fan interference, hot offense, great defense, starting pitching, relief pitching, speed, luck, power, grit, etc and they are by no means all won by 1 run nail biters. Great relievers blow games and so so relievers come up big (my memory was Dan Schatzeder came up big in 1987). The difference between a 4.00 reliever and a 3.00 reliever statistically if they pitch an inning at a time is that they both give up a run in 3 of their first 8 appearances and the worse reliever gives up a run in that 9th appearance. Of course that run might be a difference maker but only might be, not likely to be.

First of all competitive does not mean come close and then lose. It means plays well enough to win or lose. Second, even with a couple trades it is just hoping for the best (fingers and toes) regardless of who is in there. I get this feeling that fans think if we had other proven relievers games would no longer be in doubt when we had the lead after 6 innings. ALL relievers give up runs and ALL teams blow leads regardless of their relief staff. Hendricks just blew a game and so did Rogers. Nathan was the 2nd best reliever in baseball when he gave up leads to the Yankees in the playoffs. I even remember the great Rivera giving up a grand slam to Kubel and losing a game 7 in the World Series. IF the Twins make the playoffs they would have a fair shot at winning the WS. If they got a couple good relievers they would have a better chance but we are talking about 1 in 20 better shot. (10% chance without help. Probably less than 15% chance with help) Consider this. We would definitely be howling for two better starters and 3 better relievers if we were following the 87 Twins. If they had done so they would have had a better chance to win but we know for fact the inferior 87 Twins did win the WS. We don't know that the improved 87 Twins would have won because it would change everything. I am absolutely in favor of improving our bullpen but don't kid yourself. We are not getting better relievers than Rogers and I am guessing you were crossing fingers and toes when he was in there. You will be crossing fingers and toes no matter who we put out there in a close game in the playoffs.

Meh. So he bunts for a base hit and CC gives up a 2 run dinger instead. I still love the idea of bunting for base hits against CC but I did notice their third base man was often playing pretty shallow.

. Teams have done that and then he gets all childish and pissy and starts throwing at guys and then team teams stop bunting. I h always wanted everyone in the lineup to try to bunt for a hit at least one pitch every at bat just to watch him explode. Who is he to dictate how how the game should be played?

I have always thought the percentages were too easily derailed by a good or bad 10 day stretch. Most teams have a bad stretch of 2-8 but it is just part of the fabric of the season and can come at any time. I am more optimistic than most on here but I don''t feel like the Twins have a 96% chance to win the division. I think with the way the Twins and Tribe are playing and with their schedules there is a good chance they will be overtaken but then the schedules change and usually teams don't stay hot or cold forever so there is a fair chance the Twins retake the lead and we have a real exciting last month. Obviously the lead is still nice to have right now but there is just too much ebb and flow with a lot of games left to feel like our odds are greater than 90%.

I believe one year the Jays had 100 more HRs than the Twins but the Twins still scored more runs. I have always liked OBP. It has seemed at least as predictive of runs scored as any other stat. Teams win championships in many variety of ways. Speed, average, power, OBP, starting pitching, relief pitching, defense. I can point to many WS champions and point out how they were weak in some areas but strong in others. The one word that never seemed to apply was sloppy and I agree. The Twins have been sloppy. In the field, running the bases, wild pitches, decision making, etc. Everything that I do not associate with talent but rather skill, focus and discipline. They have just not played well as of late. Does not mean they cannot play well going forward..

Listening to the Mets announcers and seeing the write up yesterday about the plays the Mets made on difficult balls in play and seeing the bad plays the Twins have made lately I would say the Twins just need to play better baseball. Pitching, defense, baserunning, hitting. All of it.

Scoring a couple runs off the other team's 4th and 5th starters. I don't think the offense is ready for the playoff run as they played today and I don't think the defense is ready for a playoff run as they played today. I think the starting rotation is capable as they have demonstrated most of the year. I think the relief is capable as they have demonstrated the last 6 weeks and I think the offense is capable as they have demonstrated for the first couple months. As it stands today I think they are capable and it is up to them to play to that. I am guessing nearly every playoff team and nearly every playoff team that has had success in the playoffs has had stretches where the fan base has asked the questions you have asked. I think they are capable. I think they need to play better.

Ok, I can see right away where you went wrong with your Fangraphs reference. You combined the stats where the Twins did hit with guys on base with the times the Twins didn't hit with guys on base and we don't do that here when talking about how the Twins don't hit with guys on base. Very little known fact. All other teams are very happy with how their team does with guys on base.

Most playoff teams play a little better than .500 ball most of the time with a few modest hot streaks. I am fine with them getting to the playoffs and then posing their way to the WS.