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Dantes929

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Everything posted by Dantes929

  1. Dantes929
    He has 4 quality starts out of 10. The average overall for all starting pitchers is around 50%. If his first three starts fell in that category I might tend to agree with you but it is his last three starts that have been quality. In that time I haven't once said "Well, he is coming off Tommy John surgery" but in fact 22 months is a long time for recovery but it is also a very long time to be away from pitching competitively at the highest level. He is easily outperforming our #4 - 10 starters from 1987. Of the current winning teams he has been as good or better than at least the #5 starters on the Red Sox, Astros, Rangers, Braves, Cards, Brewers and Pirates and he is trending up. I agree that the pen is thin but they have contributed to an awful lot of wins and really only blown a couple early in the year. Bullpen weakness is likely to be exposed at some point and the rotation and the offense is likely to revert back to the mean but they play 65 games against the Central and if they can go 60-54 in their remaining games it would put them at 92 wins. Hopefully Graterol can help the pen at some point and maybe another guy in trade or who steps up from the minors. Personally I wouldn't mind if they just brought up Stewart for long relief for now.
  2. Dantes929
    Dozier was a .300 hitter in the minors. Turtle was a .320 hitter. Arraez was a .331 hitter. I generally don't think a .330 minor league hitter becomes a major league .220 hitter but .300 seems really optimistic until he gets a thousand at bats against major league pitchers. My post said subtract 3 hits and add two outs which would make him 4-14 or a .286 batter. If he can walk twice among those at bats that would make him extremely valuable. Minor leagues isn't tee ball or high school ball. You have to be really good to bat .331 but I am guessing nearly every guy in the minor leagues is capable of a good 4 games Major League stint. Only 1 in 50, I am guessing, are capable of sustaining success.
  3. Dantes929
    Hate to slow the roll as they say but all the things that are being posted about Arraez were being posted two months ago about the Turtle. Not that they aren't both good hitters or that we shouldn't ride the hot streak as much as possible but that is all this is, a hot streak. He is 7-12. Now take away any three of those hits and pretend he goes 0-2 today and that is the kind of production you can probably expect from extended play. Now maybe that expectation is enough to replace Adrianza now and give him a spot for next year but a 4 game hot streak should not drive mid or long term decision making.
  4. Dantes929
    3rd quality start in a row. What do you want from your 5th starter?
  5. Dantes929
    "I love these west coast games as a night owl. It gives me something to do while I lay in bed, but having no intentions of sleeping." Really?.....You all just going to leave that line alone?
  6. Dantes929
    Nice job bullpen.
  7. Dantes929
    Either your premise is faulty or your math. They are currently 29-15. You said their rest of season win rate projection is 53%. 118 remaining games times .53 + 29 is 92. If they just win half their remaining games they are at 88 games. What's to believe? I believe if they continue to play well they can make the playoffs. I believe if they win 107 games (current pace) or more they can still get beat by anyone. I believe if they eke into the playoffs with 87 or fewer wins they are still capable of getting hot and lucky and beating anyone. What I want is for them to be in contention in September and let the drama unfold as it may. Its all I ever want from them.
  8. Dantes929
    Of course there is regression to the mean. I don't expect them to win 108 games. The key is to go on one more hot streak and play .500 ball otherwise. Twins teams in the prior decade played near .500 for the vast majority of the time sprinkled with a couple of moderate or extended hot streaks.
  9. Dantes929
    I've never really trusted any pitcher in a playoff series against anyone. Nathan against the Yankees? Nope. Reardon, Buerengueer, Frazier, Schatzeder, Atherton, Niekro? Nope I probably had the most confidence in Aguilera. I guess I'm not sure why a relief group would be good enough to win 4 of 7 in a regular season series but not a playoff series but we are getting way ahead of ourselves. They still have to make the playoffs.
  10. Dantes929
    I don't know why but your post reminded me of when a pitcher bounced a ball way in front of home and bounced to thigh high down the middle and AJ Pierzinski framed it and then held it for a while waiting for the ump to call it a strike.
  11. Dantes929
    That Cron play should make highlight reels for years to come. It is hilarious. I wish I could see the replay of Odorizzi's reaction.
  12. Dantes929
    I listened to the Angels announcers bemoaning the fact that the Angels left 14 stranded. I thought only the Twins had that problem.
  13. Dantes929
    Sure, but you gotta give credit to Morin for battling in a tough situation. Did you see the part about 12 games without a run except for Hildenberger? I'll accept a clunker every once in a while, especially when they escape with a win.
  14. Dantes929
    I don't like burning options casually but there are players you look at and think "I don't think he is going to get sent down a bunch of times" and Graterol is one of them to me. I could be way off base here but I am thinking he might need exposure to the big leagues, get sent down to work on whatever and then will stick. You say barring injury there's no reason that he cannot maintain that velocity and I agree but the injury part is 100% why I said what I said. How many guys can throw 98mph year after year without getting arm injuries? His command seems very good and his stuff looks nasty (limited video) and is considered plus. If he truly has stuff he needs to work on to be major league ready then so be it but if they are just going through the conveyor belt of promotions cuz that is what they always do then to me it just seems like they are wasting bullets. Again, pitching at a high level for a couple years before getting the chance in the majors and then blowing out his arm soon after is my concern.
  15. Dantes929
    Pen won another game tonight. Walks always seem to loom large when the other team scores crooked numbers but especially for Gibson. Whenever I see Gibson give up runs I look to see if he has walked anyone. Usually its how the first guy gets on base.
  16. Dantes929
    Inconsistent is what we hear most about Duffey, May, Hildenberger and Romero. To me this is the best case to be made for letting guys like these pitch more than one inning when they are throwing well.
  17. Dantes929
    87 Twins ended with a -20 RD. That's 70 runs better. I think that makes this team 3.5 times better than that team already.
  18. Dantes929
    I will call it a little premature rather than ridiculous. How many years does a guy have that throws high 90's? I agree his stuff should play well anywhere, his walk rate is good and if he does well I would have no problem with him taking the 5th spot. Is he really learning stuff or is he just waiting in a queue for his chance? The reason I say it is premature is it is too early to give up on Pineda. Bert was throwing shutouts in the Bigs at 19. You might not like the comparison to a HOFer but he wouldn't have been HOF if they made him wait til 21 to get his chance. Does he really burn a whole year of control if he comes up for a spot start?
  19. Dantes929
    Nice win. Just watched the highlights. Can we please put lots of the thick soft padding out on the walls. Seems like Buxton crashes into the fence once a game.
  20. Dantes929
    For us. Giants embraced pitch to contact and won 3. They just did it better. Royals were certainly manufacture runs since they were last in the league in homers when they won it all. I don't know if it is sustainable but I really don't love it anyway. I like watching guys run around the bases rather than jogging. I wouldn't mind seeing a game without fences. You might have more homers because of gappers that aren't stopped but there might be more excitement.
  21. Dantes929
    Great win. Great start. Everything is awesome. Seems rather premature and jinxy to start talking about playoffs in early May.
  22. Dantes929
    Take another look at Lynn and Odorizzi histories. I'm not seeing the separation in their good years. I'm not anti Stroman. On a board that loves strikeouts so much I am a little surprised to see someone who's current career high is less than the other two career averages. I like Stroman's control and potential. I would maybe give up Rooker and Thorpe for him. We all have our biases and I would maybe change my opinion if we had a third year option. I get that prospect reports are rosy but top 3 prospects on highly rated systems are fairly safe bets.
  23. Dantes929
    Stop using my old arguments against me though I still think it needs to be under 4 to be called a 2-3 starter. Anecdotal evidence abounds for every argument. Last year everyone wanted Yu Darvish because he had a ceiling of a #1. Anyone want to rethink that? The floor for guys that have pitched in the majors is a lot lower than people want to think. Didn't really want to be snarky there but liked the juxtaposition. I am not that high on Stroman but could make an argument the other way as well. I have seen more video of Graterol than I ever did of Gonsalves or Romero but freely admit he could bust. I just don't like the argument that not all prospects flourish in the majors. Of course its true, but its also true that all those that flourish in the majors were once prospects. At one point many called for Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, Berrios, Rogers, Garver, May, Gibson, and Presley to be traded. Honestly, if we are saying we are unhappy with Pineda as our #5 guy (too early for me) I would rather have Graterol come up right now and take his spot.
  24. Dantes929
    The reports I have read state a ceiling of #1 for Graterol. The floor seems to be a high leverage reliever and one we presumably have control of for many years. Meanwhile Stroman had a pretty bad year last year. One which would have many on here calling him a number 5 or AAAA starter. His good start this year is buoyed by a career high strikeout rate and the fact that no one hit a homer off him before last night. He has 4 quality starts, all against teams with below average OPS+ (Oakland, Cleveland, Baltimore, Detroit) He got rocked in his last two starts by LA (also below average) and the Twins. Odorizzi and Lynn had very similar career numbers when we got them and no one was calling them number two or three starters. I would take him but I wouldn't put him ahead of 4 of our guys which to me makes him a #5. I would bet his ERA ends up closer to 5 than it does to 3 this year even given his good start. I would not give up Graterol.
  25. Dantes929
    I am fine with giving credit but there is definitely luck involved always. Last year we picked up Lynn, Odo, Reed and Morrison and relied on Buxton, Sano and Dozier to carry the offense. Great moves with pretty large upside but rather bad luck that none of those moves worked out. There was actually less reason to expect Buxton, Odo, and Perez to work out this year but they have so far in a big way. I give them credit for seeing the potential in Perez but every year we read about a number of guys changing their approach or working on this pitch or that. You put pieces in place and hope they work out but luck is definitely involved. I feel like I can temper the praise for things working out because I defended them for what I thought were good moves that did not work out.
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