Dantes929

You don't even need one. Back in the day I liked Crede, Thome and Konerko. I even liked Ozzie more than Gardy. Still hated the White Sox.

Well yeah.... but if teams that win 100 games lose or get swept by lower division teams through the course of the season isn't it kind of absurd to think the Twins won't go through those stretches as well? I think we have a better team than last year. If they play well I don't know why they shouldn't be in the mix. If they don't play well they won't be but it is a marathon.

Houston got swept by Oakland and by the White Sox last year. Dodgers lost 11 straight. Almost every pennant winner gets swept by a lower division team and loses a couple others. Twins were just a break or two from winning the series. Twins are good enough that they don't have to back off to any team but not good enough to assume wins over anyone. Ok maybe a little more of the latter than the former. They've got to play well to win and I don't think they played well this series. On the other hand Tampa played pretty well with respect to their talent. Many teams that win pennants play .500 for most of the season with a couple stretches of good ball. We need Buxton back and maybe a little reshuffling of the pen.

I am also a little curious why there have been so many of these. I have the same level of anxiety about Mauer getting in as I do of Oliva getting in which is to say none. Its just a minor debate or intellectual exercise. Pick any of the topics on the board and I can make a world not ending comment about it. Is Berrios an ace? Was sending Lamarre down a smart move? Why did Lindor make the comment about not trying to offend the Twins with a home run celebration? None of it matters in the big scheme of things. All of it just falls under hobby and Mauer is just one of the many many sub sets of that hobby.

For his HOF case it probably would have been better if he had retired for 3 years and then come back after the concussion. I think his career average at the time was .319 and his career OBP was .401. The accumulation of hits just helped him get to 2000 hits but hurt him in every other way. If voters took that kind of thing into consideration like with Puckett it might make a difference but I doubt they do. Another batting title would do it.

In that situation it is probably only a home run that will score Grossman and who is more likely to hit a home run, Mauer or Sano? Sano is way more likely to and it would be a three run homer vs a less likely two run homer from Mauer in the third inning Even given the 2-0 count it is pretty much a push. Plus the best odds of scoring a run is having Grossman on 2nd because Sano is still way more likely to get a single or double than either is of hitting a home run. The only argument for Mauer swinging away is your belief that somehow Mauer is more likely to hit a home run than Sano is to get a hit of any kind. Its playing the odds because the eye test lies. Do you give a damn about Mauer's clutch OBP when it has contributed to rallies and close wins because those are not isolated instances either. He's Wade Boggs. He's not Mike Schmidt. Do you value him for being like Boggs (HOFer) or do you find him wanting because he's not Mike Schmidt (also HOFer)?

He has always passed the eye test with me. I have always considered him to be a table setter but he was an elite table setter. Leaving it to the next guy wasn't such a bad option when you added a guy on base for Morneau, Thome and Cuddyer. With the bad teams who is going to pitch to Mauer with the game on the line when Doumit and Plouffe are your next batters? Do the clutch stats contemplate intentional and semi intentional walks? We have had this conversation before. In the midst of one of these conversations in years back I kept track of a 3 game set. It was probably serendipity but there were 6 runs scored where he advanced the runner to 2nd or 3rd either through a walk, single or double and that runner scored either from 2nd with a base hit or from third with a sac fly or ground out. 6 runs where Mauer was a major factor in 3 close games but his stat sheet (what was referred to earlier as looking good on paper) had no runs scored and no RBI for Mauer. I am guessing he has always been pretty high in the category of runs produced without getting credit for RBI or run scored. Clutch or otherwise. Batters behind him have always benefited. Is Morneau MVP without Mauer's .347 BA and .429 OBP.? Is he runner up for MVP without Mauer's .328 ave and .413 OBP? As far as approach, several years ago I noted that Mauer and Delmon Young had almost the exact same splits for various counts, meaning the various ways you can be even, behind and ahead in the count. What separated a guy we are sorry we traded for and a guy some think has a strong case for HOF is that by being patient Mauer found himself in the favorable counts way more often than did Young despite the general opinion that Mauer always starts the count 0-2. I wish he would swing at the 1st pitch a little more often just to keep the pitchers honest but his formula works. He is actually not a great hitter when behind in the count. He is at .255 when behind, .316 when even in the count and .360 when ahead in the count in his career and he has been ahead in the count way more often than behind in the count.

How about this. 2006, 2008, and 2009 were three of the tightest races in the history of the sport with a pennant won on the last day in 2006 and games 163 in 08 and 09. In the heat of those races Mauer's final month OPS was .956. .904 and .958.

I kind of agree with this but it really doesn't matter where the wins come from. We used to lose 70% of game against the East hold our own against the West and do really well against the NL and the Central. I get that the head to heads are important but not the end all. If we lose two here, sweep Tampa and Cleveland loses two of their next three its the same net result. Of course sweeping Cleveland and then Tampa would be preferable.

Genius would have had the Chicago series there as well. Sad to see their worst starter against our best starter still has a 51% win probability in Cleveland's favor.

At least theoretically I like the idea of simply retaining every player you draft similar to the old days. Trade where you can and don't sign any free agents and don't lose any free agents instead of participating in the musical chairs that is free agency where we usually come out on the short side. I loved the Reed and Odorizzi signings. I liked the Morrison signing, did not like losing Burdi or Chargois and did not like getting Rodney. I approved of Lynn but wanted Alex Cobb who currently sports a 17.18 ERA. None of this analysis is meaningful because of SSS. Hicks had a whole season of failure before making that trade looked lousy. I have no particular regrets about Darvish because I had no particular expectations of us ever signing him.

On pace for 113 wins. Nice job Twins. Congrats Joe.

I'm with you Riverbiran. Most here hate the Yankees but it has always been the White Sox for me. It was more fun when they were our closest rivals but still. The odd thing is there are really not all that many none Twins that I like but I liked Konerko, Thome, Buehrle and Crede and always wished they played for us just because. 2 of 4 did end up playing here which did restore some harmony in the universe for me. Great write up once again.

"While 6-4 may not seem real exciting, if the team were to go 6-4 for all 16 ten-game samples, they would be on pace to go 97-65 on the season." I love 6-4 especially given the competition, no Santana and a closer I don't trust. I always love how in playoff races the wild card team fans talk about how their team only has a 2 game lead and needs to go 10-6 to get the wild card when all the teams have been about .500 through 146 games. You never know how many you need cuz any team can go on a run but statistically that team has a good chance if it just goes 8-8 and a fair chance if it goes 7-9. Give me 6-4 all season with a few 5-5 sprinkled in.

Most statistics are flawed in some way and one of the ways ERA is flawed is the inherited runners thing. If Reed comes in when bases are loaded maybe Gibson gives up 1 run in 4.3 innings. Instead he is credited with 4 runs. That is a pretty big difference in a situation Gibson has no control over. In fact, I am sure he is thinking he should have just been left out there and could have done better. I know I was thinking that. Sano with a .925 OPS is ok with me. Some will say it is not sustainable given his K rate through 10 games and I will say it is his K rate that will not be sustained. .925 with lots of strikeouts means there will be lots of times fans will be disgusted and a fair share where he makes the difference in a good way on a game. His home runs have been the difference a couple times already. I will accept a .925 OPS in whatever form it comes unless for long stretches the good comes in blowouts and the the bad comes in close losses. That is not the case so far. When Dozier and Mauer come back to earth Sano might very well step up.

I think he is a pretty decent bunter. I would prefer he go down the 3rd base side a little more but I think his average when putting it in play is good.

You mean this year? I remember long stretches of Cuddyer swinging at pitches no one could hit. Then he would have a series where he walked 8 times and pitchers would have to start throwing strikes again. I do think Sano swings too hard and probably causes some of his check swing strikes. I would prefer a little situational hitting when he has two strikes but you take the good with the bad. His homer was the difference in the home opener. If he hits 40 homers its not going to be one every 4 games. He will have his streaks. Your cleanup hitter should probably be about OPS and RBI. Ok, he's not the cleanup hitter but he is that guy.

.925 OPS Aside from Escobar has twice as many RBI as anyone else on the team. I think .250 with and about a .350 or better OBP is about what we can expect from him. Its fine having that guy in the middle of the order. Not so great to have Morrison next to him the way he has been batting. He'll go on a tear when Mauer and Dozier come back to earth. 5-4 is still on pace for 90 wins. Overall, I am pretty happy with the start. Side note. I have seen Buxton batting numerous time but have not seem him try to bunt for a hit yet. Did I just miss it? I still think he should be trying it at least once a game. I believe his bunt hits kept him afloat though a bad start last year. Even when he is going well it is a great weapon.

While I agree that the same weather conditions exist for all I don't agree that everyone is affected the same way. Verlander might love the cold and Lynn might be shivering out there. Personally, hot or cold doesn't usually affect me much but a brisk wind really messes me up. Morrison might truly be adversely affected by the cold. That is a reason to not give up on him. Also a reason you might want to play him less now. None of this is excuse. Losing a close game to the best team in baseball isn't the end of the world. In a game of inches and a couple of key plays weather and conditions may have played a role. It usually does, hot, cold or windy.

Rest in peace. We will miss you.

That is literally ironic. Don't know what that means but wanted to combine a couple of my favorite misused words and this seemed like a good antidote to do so.

Oh, I got it and thought it was funny. Let me be brief. I am not great with grammar but I think there is a difference between "Ironically, a wild Siberian Tiger will deliver the game ball to Justin Verlander" and "A wild Siberian Tiger will ironically deliver the game ball to Justin Verlander". The former describes the situation as ironical and the latter indicates that the way the ball is delivered is ironical. I might be wrong. My wife uses the the word ironical to describe everything from coincidence to mildly interesting so I might be numb to the word. A quick google search has a site that say there are two types, one that says there are three types and one that says there are 7 types. Long ago I saw an explanation that the word is very soft in definition and my wife took it to heart. I wasn't brief. Is that ironical? If its not I'm sorry but I am not going to apologize.

How do you ironically deliver a game ball? What does a wild Siberian Tiger know from irony?

Not sure if I am reading it properly but I think Fangraphs has his value to date a little better than 160 mil and the Twins have paid him 12 million. Keep in mind that if he has a great 2018 he will be a great value at 9 mil. I compare it to when we could have had Santana for one more year at 13 mil. That is a nice asset to have even if it is short term. We make a qualifying offer and also get a good draft pick. Though I don't think the Twins have much of a moral obligation to reward Dozier I think a 3 year offer at 75 mil or even 80 mil would be digestible with the knowledge that even if he is a bust at some point we have already gotten value from him. What I like least about free agency is rewarding players for great years they have had with someone else. 5 years is too much and if he can get it elsewhere for more dollars more power to him.

Now is the time to offer Lynn an extension. I'm only half kidding. Do you think he would consider it before going out for the 2nd inning?