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Dantes929

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Everything posted by Dantes929

  1. Dantes929
    I should add that playoffs have more days off so relying on Harper and Rogers or Pineda, etc is more reasonable than relying on them to carry the full load in the regular season. I want better relievers as well. Don't care to give up a lot in terms of prospects for them and want them more to fight off Cleveland than worrying about how they might do in the playoffs.. We can have different views but I stand by my opinion that you will be crossing fingers and toes no matter who we have out there. I don't recall any 1 run game in Twins history where I thought "this game is over" with an inning left to play. Nathan made me nervous, as did Perkins, Buerenguer, Reardon, Guardado and Aquillera.
  2. Dantes929
    Thin air but reasonable I think. One site had them at plus 950 which I think means better than 1 in 10. Another site had them at 15/1 but that is all from where we stand now. If we make the playoffs it will be as a wild card play in game or as division champs. Hard to give double digits chances to any wild card entrant. Once they make the full playoffs the odds are likely close to one in 8 but the odds of winning the wild card game is still roughly 1 in 2. I give a nod to those that think the Twins odds are reduced significantly by having a weak bullpen though there are those that think the starting pitching hurts also by giving them slightly worse odds than the 1 in 8 (12.5%) With a bolstered bullpen I still have a hard time giving them better odds than the Yankees, the Astros, the Dodgers, etc. which puts them back to 12.5% at best. Playoff games are won and lost in all matter of ways. Umpire calls, home field advantages, fan interference, hot offense, great defense, starting pitching, relief pitching, speed, luck, power, grit, etc and they are by no means all won by 1 run nail biters. Great relievers blow games and so so relievers come up big (my memory was Dan Schatzeder came up big in 1987). The difference between a 4.00 reliever and a 3.00 reliever statistically if they pitch an inning at a time is that they both give up a run in 3 of their first 8 appearances and the worse reliever gives up a run in that 9th appearance. Of course that run might be a difference maker but only might be, not likely to be.
  3. Dantes929
    First of all competitive does not mean come close and then lose. It means plays well enough to win or lose. Second, even with a couple trades it is just hoping for the best (fingers and toes) regardless of who is in there. I get this feeling that fans think if we had other proven relievers games would no longer be in doubt when we had the lead after 6 innings. ALL relievers give up runs and ALL teams blow leads regardless of their relief staff. Hendricks just blew a game and so did Rogers. Nathan was the 2nd best reliever in baseball when he gave up leads to the Yankees in the playoffs. I even remember the great Rivera giving up a grand slam to Kubel and losing a game 7 in the World Series. IF the Twins make the playoffs they would have a fair shot at winning the WS. If they got a couple good relievers they would have a better chance but we are talking about 1 in 20 better shot. (10% chance without help. Probably less than 15% chance with help) Consider this. We would definitely be howling for two better starters and 3 better relievers if we were following the 87 Twins. If they had done so they would have had a better chance to win but we know for fact the inferior 87 Twins did win the WS. We don't know that the improved 87 Twins would have won because it would change everything. I am absolutely in favor of improving our bullpen but don't kid yourself. We are not getting better relievers than Rogers and I am guessing you were crossing fingers and toes when he was in there. You will be crossing fingers and toes no matter who we put out there in a close game in the playoffs.
  4. Dantes929
    Meh. So he bunts for a base hit and CC gives up a 2 run dinger instead. I still love the idea of bunting for base hits against CC but I did notice their third base man was often playing pretty shallow.
  5. Dantes929
    I have always thought the percentages were too easily derailed by a good or bad 10 day stretch. Most teams have a bad stretch of 2-8 but it is just part of the fabric of the season and can come at any time. I am more optimistic than most on here but I don''t feel like the Twins have a 96% chance to win the division. I think with the way the Twins and Tribe are playing and with their schedules there is a good chance they will be overtaken but then the schedules change and usually teams don't stay hot or cold forever so there is a fair chance the Twins retake the lead and we have a real exciting last month. Obviously the lead is still nice to have right now but there is just too much ebb and flow with a lot of games left to feel like our odds are greater than 90%.
  6. Dantes929
    I believe one year the Jays had 100 more HRs than the Twins but the Twins still scored more runs. I have always liked OBP. It has seemed at least as predictive of runs scored as any other stat. Teams win championships in many variety of ways. Speed, average, power, OBP, starting pitching, relief pitching, defense. I can point to many WS champions and point out how they were weak in some areas but strong in others. The one word that never seemed to apply was sloppy and I agree. The Twins have been sloppy. In the field, running the bases, wild pitches, decision making, etc. Everything that I do not associate with talent but rather skill, focus and discipline. They have just not played well as of late. Does not mean they cannot play well going forward..
  7. Dantes929
    Listening to the Mets announcers and seeing the write up yesterday about the plays the Mets made on difficult balls in play and seeing the bad plays the Twins have made lately I would say the Twins just need to play better baseball. Pitching, defense, baserunning, hitting. All of it.
  8. Dantes929
    Scoring a couple runs off the other team's 4th and 5th starters. I don't think the offense is ready for the playoff run as they played today and I don't think the defense is ready for a playoff run as they played today. I think the starting rotation is capable as they have demonstrated most of the year. I think the relief is capable as they have demonstrated the last 6 weeks and I think the offense is capable as they have demonstrated for the first couple months. As it stands today I think they are capable and it is up to them to play to that. I am guessing nearly every playoff team and nearly every playoff team that has had success in the playoffs has had stretches where the fan base has asked the questions you have asked. I think they are capable. I think they need to play better.
  9. Dantes929
    Most playoff teams play a little better than .500 ball most of the time with a few modest hot streaks. I am fine with them getting to the playoffs and then posing their way to the WS.
  10. Dantes929
    Sounds a little like his talents are not being utilized to their fullest. Time to make him a starter again. Pretty strong case for Twins MVP.
  11. Dantes929
    May didn't even make the bottom 3 for WPA
  12. Dantes929
    Its just my view from watching for decades and reading other teams boards that no one knows when to pull the plug. Or rather, the manager whose team won the game knew when to pull the plug and the manager that lost didn't know when to pull the plug. I am concerned about over usage but I don't expect Rogers to pitch today and we have Monday off. One thing I like about Rocco is that he seems to think that pitchers 10-13 have value also. Its really tough not to ride Harper and Rogers every opportunity but in the long run you would rather have a tested May, Duffey, Parker, Littell and a rested Rogers and Harper. Tough because the long run is often at odds with the short run.
  13. Dantes929
    Not agreeing with that. Of course you want your best guys in the highest leverage spots but Duffey, May, Littell and Harper have pitched in a lot of close games and done just fine. Starters have not done as well in the last month and the relievers have really picked up the slack, IMO. If you believe the Twins have a lousy pen that is ok, but they have not pitched lousy to this point.
  14. Dantes929
    Big series but I don't even think the White Sox are out of it at this point. If we sweep or get swept it won;t change my thinking too much. Cleveland at 8.5 behind still wouldn't be out of it. 2.5 ahead and I would still be optimistic. Its still a long way to go. When the Twins are hot I hate it when they even have a day off. 5 days off is a long time for a hot team to be inactive and still stay hot. My guess is the Indians will pull closer by the end of July and the Twins will get a few games back in August making for an interesting September.
  15. Dantes929
    I was just talking theoretically. Before 1975 there was no free agency and there were still great teams. It would still be possible if a team were to draft real well and never lose their guys when they become free agents. Twins right now could have Ramos, Garver, Sano, Planco, Arraez, Kepler, Rosario, Buxton and Hicks. They would also have Hendricks, Rogers, Pressly, Berrios and Gibson. Like I said our drafts have not yielded great starting pitching. Other teams may have great starting pitchers but lack in quality position players. Some would get both right and some would get neither right. I know they will never go backwards but I think no free agency is a better model for competitive balance for the league. Trades would still be in the mix. No, great teams do not happen in modern baseball with out free agents because every team has some and loses others.
  16. Dantes929
    1927 Yankees.
  17. Dantes929
    In any short term there is a fair amount of luck involved. Last year we brought in Lynn, Reed, Odorizzi and Morrison. I thought these were great pickups but they didn't work out last year Some credit to front office, some luck, good and bad. In the past year we got Cruz, Marwin, Pineda, Perez, and Cron. Also traded Lynn and Pressly. Some credit, some fault and some luck, good and bad. I am not against free agency but sometimes I wonder if all we did was draft well and made sure we kept our players throughout their productive years we might be just well off and maybe even better. Constantly see our former players do well for other teams. If we had kept Hicks, Hendricks, Pressly, and others would that offset the acquisitions that have worked out. Of course we haven't done that well with starting pitching but that is why I said if we draft well.
  18. Dantes929
    That is crazy good. By contrast a few years ago at this point I think we only had one player with an OPS+ greater than 100 and that was our backup infielder (Nunez). I don't know if any pitchers at the time had ERA+ over 100. Some players improved the 2nd half but what a nightmare to have everyone with or near career worst years. What a dream to have everyone at or near career bests. Some guys will drop off but I think a false narrative here is that we have to keep pace with the Indians last 5 weeks. They are not a .700+ win % team. ....... The pleasant surprise for me among others listed (Ryan. Freaking. Harper. near top of my list as well) is Pineda. After an understandably slow start to the season, 7 of his last 10 starts have been quality starts and 2 that missed out only missed out because he was just short of the 6 inning qualifier. That is fantastic for the back end of the rotation. His OPS+ makes him the best #5 in the American League and he would be #2 or #3 on almost half the teams in the league. I also expect him to just get stronger and should help mitigate regression with a few other pitchers.
  19. Dantes929
    Maybe, maybe not. The key phrase here is hot streak. I don't expect the Indians to play at above a 70% rate. If schedules mean anything then the Indians will gain more ground in the following weeks because their schedule is weak and the Twins are strong. Then the schedule reverses and the Indians play the tough teams. I think it is reasonable that both teams will play around 55% which makes a 6 game lead at this point huge. 50% might cut it. Of course seasons don't follow projections. Its baseball.
  20. Dantes929
    The Twins are 56-33. They had everyone hot and now have predictably cooled off. Indians are currently hot and maybe a little lucky (pythag says they should be 45-42). They will also cool off. Twins could use some help but they don't need it. What they need is enough of their current players playing well again. 40-33 would give them 96 wins. It would also be winning at a slightly less than 55% rate from this point. Seems doable to me. They are certainly capable of it but its up to them. They shouldn't be afraid of an actual race. I enjoy pennant races. Meaningful games in August and September are fun.
  21. Dantes929
    I've never really thought of him as an ace but in the last 28 days he is 0-2 with a 2.17 ERA. That is better than good in my book. He also gave them a good start though in a loss after that 18 inning game that gave the pen a rest.
  22. Dantes929
    They all have a break but not everyone wants or needs one. There have been many times in the past where I hated the break because the Twins were on a role and other times I have thought they could use the rest and a reset. This is one of those times. Cleveland gets a break also but I am guessing they would rather not have one at this time. When Twins are hot I don't even like the single days off.
  23. Dantes929
    That sounds like a friend of mine that was running a meeting and when asked a question said "thanks for reminding me to tell you all there is no such thing as a stupid question".
  24. Dantes929
    I tend to not give managers a lot of credit or blame. Rocco has had a couple moves in the pen that have made me go "huh?" but every manager does that and every manager gets criticized for bullpen usage. I like that for the most part he has rotated players in to keep everyone fresh. We've played 85 games and Polanco is the only one that has played more than 77. I suspect hitting and pitching coaches have more to do with results but I will give Rocco a more than passing grade.
  25. Dantes929
    You are absolutely right in that the offense has taken some pressure off and the starting pitching has as well. It is way different than when our starters would have one or two each rotation where they couldn't make it through the 4th inning. It just wears out a bullpen. On the flip side though, is that our starters still rarely get past the 6th inning. Also, while I know save stats aren't everything they are somewhat indicative. Yankees have 42 saves but they have blown 13 of them. Twins have 31 saves and have only blown 6. If they had more opportunities that percentage would probably go down but I think they have done well. I liken it a little to a couple years ago when we made the playoffs. If we were down 4-2 in the 7th or 5-1 in the 5th we might lose 11-4 but if we were up or tied when they pen came in, then they held. In other words they gave up a lot in games they were likely to lose anyway and held on when they had a good chance of winning. This year is a little different. Maybe they have been given bigger leads and have given up a few runs but they haven't broken and there have been plenty of games like last night where they have given up very little in 3+ innings in very close games. I have some faith in Rogers, Harper, May, Duffey and Parker. That's 5 and there are a couple other guys that are ok. I would be happy with one more because I don't think they will get two and I fear they won't get any.
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