Brandon

With our offense and bullpen we only need a rotation that can go 5 innings and give up 2-3 runs a game. If Chacin can get the longball under control, he is that guy. So we now have a solid rotation WITH options in case of injury and ineffectiveness.

I think the Sox are set up to be an 82-85 win team like the 2015 Twins. They do have holes as mentioned in the article. But we have a world class offense which is nearly an all time great line up. Our bullpen is incredibly deep so if we have injured starters their replacements only need to go 4-5 innings. We just signed Chacin for more depth. I am no longer worried about the rotation. I am also sure we can still trade for a starter if need be.

I would go a little higher then Seth's estimate maybe Arb1 = 4.3 million Arb 2 = 9 million Arb 3 = 13 million FA 1 = 17.5 million So a 4 year 45 - 46 million with 5th year option of 17 million with 4 - 5 million buyout. It's a little on the high side but the numbers are where they need to be for an extension.

This is absolutely a fun debate. We should make a series out of this, maybe do WAR next. And we should also compare bench bats as well. We are pretty stacked there too. That matters in determining offensive fire power too. I am sure there are likely other aspects to judget the offenses on as well.

All I have to say is Clevelands OF. That is a big area of substandard production.

287.5

So this year expect 3 30+ HR hitters. (Donaldson, Sano, and Cruz). Garver can make it with enough ABs. And we will have atleast 7 hitters with 20+ HRs. Polanco and possibly Buxton can do it too but best not to bank on it. That is what I am taking away from this

I thought the three questions were.... What is your name? What is your quest? And what is the air velocity of an unladen swallow?

How bout "cannonball run" for a nickname? He throws the ball from his Canon arm and you better run since you don't know where it's going

Another depth move would be to sign Bartolo Colon to a AAA deal. He wants a chance to come back and could be depth as well.

When I saw the title, I just assumed all 4 we're internal candidates. I figured Wade was one and maybe Gordon....

I would also mention how Donaldson's signing affects Thorpe and Smeltzer. Since Signing Donaldson probably keeps us from getting a high dollar starter making it more likely one of them with Dobnak make the rotation.

With our payroll where it's at now, I suspect the large co tract trades are out of the question. I think the Twins may target someone like Gray or Archer, or a decent pitcher with a salary under 10 million or with less than 5 million remaining for the season unless Rosario was included to offset a higher salary.

If WAR costs an average of 8 million. He needs to be worth 12 WAR to justify the contract. If he produced 6 WAR in his first 2 years any positive value the last 2 years are surplus value anyways. It's fun to bend stats.

Definitely, not a bad idea. If we don't go out and get a difference maker or top of the rotation arm having a good swingman makes sense if not another depth arm. I am not sold on Homer yet. I think he could be better or he could be a Martin Perez redux. having an extra arm is about all that we need to wrap up the offseason. Not saying we absolutely have to have another arm either as we do have several arms ready to come up and a few more that are close enough. but having one more depth option if not an ace is a good idea.

Is the entire Marlins staff better than Odorizzi? If so they should be a good team.

I am now happy with the off-season. A solid B grade. A-/B+ with one more solid pitching addition.

It seems like the Twins are settling in on a 4-year window of being competitive. Last year the Twins signed 2 of their core players to 5-year contracts totaling just over 60 million. Note, they now have 4 years left on those extensions. Just a few days ago the wins signed Sano to an extension that has a guaranteed 3-year extension with a 4th year option. The Twins are looking to sign Donaldson to a 4-year contract as well. I am beginning to think the longer Donaldson doesn’t sign the better our odd are of signing him become. I think the more extensions they sign that give more payroll certainty, the more the Twins will feel comfortable increasing their offer to JD and get the deal done. As far as the other position players go, we have 5 years control on Garver, 3 years for Buxton, and 5 years for Arreaz. That is 7 of the 9 starters who are locked up for 3 years and 6 can be locked up for 7. The 2 positions not locked up the full 4 years are DH/ 1B and LF. The Twins have Killeroff, Rooker, Raley, Larnarch and Blankenship among others. To replace Gonzales as the everywhere player is Lewis. He has shown he can play CF, 3B and SS in the minors. He can come up and be an everyday player at every position. In the pen and back of the rotation there were numerous pitchers who have shown they can be effective in those roles. It’s a matter of giving them another year to show who is really ready and who is not. As far as extensions go for pitchers; if we can sign May and Rogers in the pen to extensions and Berrios and maybe Odorizzi in the rotation, we would have a really strong core locked up and quite a few young pitchers with years of team control remaining. That makes the next 4 years where the Twins are working around the edges and looking for a star starting pitcher to come here. Looking forward at the next 4 years starting in 2024, the Twins will still have 2-3 years control for players coming up like Killeroff, Larnarch, Lewis, Rooker, Baddoo. Plus, they will have any players extended in arbitration under control for an extended period of time like Arreaz? Garver? On the pitching side the picture is not as clear but as of now we have Graterol as either a starter or reliever, Balazovich is on his way, and we have numerous other pitchers who came up in the last year or next year and may be at the back of the rotation or in the pen as well such as Thorpe, Smeltzer, Littell, Dobnak, Alcala, Wells, Jax, Stashak, and so many more. And the Twins will have 4 years to develop other players and pitchers as well and the Twins could be well set up to have another 4-year window….

I'm fine with the Bailey signing. I don't feel he is too much of a downgrade over Bumgarner and is in par with Gibson. I feel the Twins were aggressive with Wheeler offering mlbtraderumors predicted 100 million early in the process. I got the sense the Twins would go a little higher AAV for a three year contract for Ryu. Where I will get annoyed is if the Twins won't step up and be willing to overpay a little to get Donaldson. If we don't get a key player over a difference of 10 million over 4 years or less it will be maddening. We are just like the Terry Ryan teams of having a good floor and the next upgrade up is expensive. I wouldn't ask the Twins to pay o erage costs on lots of players but once in a while an overpay that brings a difference maker would be nice.

I don't know. If we are already willing to spend 20 million on Bryant or Donaldson, I think paying Donaldson an extra 5 million or even 8 million a year and having Killeroff and Graterol during their low cost years makes more sense then a trade.

Fred McGriff is at 493 career HRs. The strike cost him the shot at 500 and he either barely made it or just missed it. So 500 HRs is required. Also there are very few players with 1525 or more RBI not in the Hall of Fame. Cruz is a long way from that many RBI so I doubt he gets in. Though if he hits his 500th in a Twins uniform and is a World Series key contributor he could make the Twins Hall of Fame

He needs 500 HRs and 1525 RBis to be considered a marginal or.fringe HOFer.

110/8 = 13.75. if JD signs for 110 million he needs to produce 13.75 WAR to justify the contract. He produced around 6 last year. 13.75 is just shy of 3.5 WAR per season. I feel like even with regression he should be able to hit the number or close to it. I don't think it's a huge overpay to sign him. If there was ever a time to strike it is now. But if the Twins want to play chicken with him and the other teams over 10 million whatever. They should make a small concession when he is ready to sign if no one else blinks to get him here.

He will make 12 starts and pitch 63 innings and go 5-3 with a 4.20 ERA. With 52 Ks and 28 BBs. Control takes a while to come back after surgery and that messes with his success a little.

I would call last season a success. I would say the front office needs to step up and pay the price to improve the team. I think signing Donaldson is a step in the right direction. If Donaldson can be a 5-7 war player the first 3 seasons and a 2-3 the 4th season it's a win for us. The contract is right at the end of our comfort zone or what should be our comfort zone. The Twins should give him the 110 million with a 12-24 window to sign and start negotiating with Moreland in the meantime so they can pivot away from him immediately if he doesn't sign. If the Twins are truly out of the running then Atlanta can sign him for whatever he wants and JD will have overplayed his hand. I think Washington is only in at this point to keep the bidding higher. If the bottom drops out they will gladly sign him but I don't think they will break the bank to sign him. I think what the Twins are doing is exposing this to JD by saying they are going to walk away from the table. And if you want to sign with Atlanta you can do it on their terms and if you want to get the best offer, you can sign what we have out there. I imagine the Twins would budge a little as a consession to get a deal done maybe 4 million or 1 million a year, but not up to 110 million.