Brandon

Beware of the potential return of Doug Bernier. Unless they bring up Romero and put Escobar back at 3rd.

I am hoping that Burdi makes it though Cedar Rapids and Fort Myers this year and next year starts at AA and is available after the arbitration date and a spot opens on the roster. so 4-5 weeks in each A ball team. then 2-3 months in AA then BAM. It'll be time for the Burdi to fly. http://t3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcT1wKwk5qn2ZbHYFXDS94p20fBN5fumQGZ2k6XGdUuwDjnmhAimmQ

cool. I am planning to walk up to buy a ticket. I live in Irvine about 10 miles away. Online it looks like tomorrow's game is more expensive than today's.

Maybe Berrios gets promoted to AA after the futures game.

On the flip side you can now make a caravan down to cedar rapids to watch him pitch sooner rather than later.

Also I posted a blog on how Burton is just as effective as Perkins from an aggregate perspective despite the ERA yesterday. Relievers have a volatile record because they do not pitch as many innings. That's why I keep asking you to show where his stuff is deteriorating to the point he warrants a release. Here is the post. http://www.twinsdaily.com/showthread.php/12166-Little-things-make-a-big-difference Also I don't think were that far apart on opinion either. I don't think Burton is a long term option but he is here now. If his option vest he could be here next year too. But I don't see how he would be here beyond that as there are too many pitchers coming down the pipeline.

Paul, I would have agreed with you at the beginning of May but now that we are only 3 games back of the 2nd wild card and he has righted the ship by my stat test, I would rather see them go for it with who we have. If we fall out of the race then I think He should be one we consider trading but Burton is a solid reliever and solid is good. Not all relievers are going to be great. I think you need to forgive his first 10 innings and realize he has been just as effective as others.

He looked pretty fixed last year and wasn't horrible the year before. It really is only his last few starts. He was really good in the pen so I wouldn't be so hasty in getting rid of him. We seem to want to rush out and get rid of our depth (Swarzak, Burton, Deduno, Corriea, Guerrier, and Deunsing and even Theilbar are names that get tossed around a lot lately) too hastily so we can get what we can out of the minor leagues and have no available depth down there should we need it later. I get wanting to get rid of Corriea or maybe Burton or Swarzak so we can bring up 1 pitcher but to get rid of all of these guys and bring up the AAA staff is insane.

If you move out to the west coast most Twins games start at 500pm and 700pm is typically the latest start time. I think tonight's game starts at 7:10.

Paul, You and I have sparred about this on 2 different threads yesterday. I am going to agree that he should not be a long term solution. At this point he is the bullpens version of Kevin Corriea. the 5th starter or 6th man in the pen. For that roll he is fine. An ERA around 4 is passable and after the first month that's what he's been. If we can trade him we should. But yesterday I was pointing out that ERA for a reliever is a misleading stat because a few bad outings can give a misleading representation of the body of work. Burton has the same number of scoreless appearances as Perkins, whom he compares the most equally too. In terms of one game to the next He has been just as reliable as Perkins for games with no runs allowed and games with multiple runs allowed. Will this continue? probably not if his peripherals are correct. My question is how has Burton's stuff diminished? It appears to be a control issue from where I sit but I do not get to watch the games. So my question for you Paul is how has his stuff diminished to say he's done now? He is definitely not a long termer here because I get the feeling we would keep Guerrier over Burton next year. And we have a wave of relievers coming down the stream. Pressly, Achter, Zach Jones, Burdi, Tonkin, Melantokis. so the point is kind of moot anyway. There are teams looking for pitching depth and maybe we can package him with Corriea for something in July. But he is not ineffective and not done by any means.

I would like to see Achter up too but I am not sure who he should replace. Burton was terrible the first month of the season and has been ok since. I don't see anyone else deserving of being let go. Maybe swarzak after the season. Burton likely will not resign either. Deduno should be kept as he is still not arbitration eligible after the season. Deunsing may be offered a contract extension or traded who knows there. I can see Achter getting a September call up but I don't see how he would get up here any sooner without a trade or 2 or a rash of injuries. Isn't there another lights out reliever or 2 in AAA Pressly and Tonkin who are first in line? Also there is another wave of relievers on their way too.

Paul, I have to disagree. I didn't cherry pick his good and bad outing. I merely stated he struggled to begin the season and has since improved back to a satisfactory level. Relievers are a volatile bunch because a few bad outings distort their numbers. I show this by comparing how the relievers are fairing in terms of outings where they give up runs and the ones where they don't. and Burton compares almost equally with Perkins except Burton has several outings where he gave up 3 and 4 runs. does a few bad outings make him a done reliever? No and I think the Twins feel that way too as he got the save today with a scoreless inning and 2 Ks. I do agree that Burton doesn't have top flight stuff but there is no way he is done based on his results.

How exactly has he been mediocre during his good stretch?

What about our 5th rounder. I here he was signed to a 350k contract but Brock hasn't updated the first post to show that yet?

In a breakdown of Burton he seems to have been 2 different pitchers so far this season. the first 10 innings and the last 20. what's his xFIP for his first 10 innings and his xFIP for his last 20? The last 20 innings are more likely to continue since they are his most recent body of work. I am not saying Burton is good. I am just saying he is no where near as bad as we seem to think he is.

Relievers are a harder group of pitchers to gauge because from 1 year to the next they can go from a great season to bad and back again. So I got to thinking about the season Jarod Burton is having. It is evident that his stuff is starting to decline but has he really been as bad or ineffective as his era would suggest? In comparing the game logs of 5 relievers based on games pitched (GP), games with runs scored against (GRSA), games with multiple runs scored against (GMRSA), and scoreless games pitched (SGP). Here's how they stacked up. Burton GP 32 GRSA 10 GMRSA 5 SGP 22 Fien GP 34 GRSA 7 GMRSA 2 SGP 27 (most effective reliever) Perkins GP 32 GRSA 9 GMRSA 5 SGP 23 Deunsing GP 28 GRSA 4 GMRSA 3 SGP 24 (most likely to pitch a scoreless game) Thielbar GP 28 GRSA 8 GMRSA 1 SGA 19 (most likely to not give up 2 or more runs) This view does not take into account inherited runs stranded or scored just what is attributed to them. but from the looks of things Burton has been almost as effective as Perkins in terms of scoreless games and games in which they gave up 1 run or multiple runs. So I wonder if this view gets looked at by the Twins Jack Goin when they look at bullpen effectiveness or some version of it. I think this does a better job of showing how effective a reliever is when the numbers appear off, like having a 6 ERA. It all comes down to a few bad innings for Burton and yes he is regressing some but not to the extent we at Twins daily believe. I think the other stats can show where the regression comes from (walks are up and so is HR per 9 innings). Burtons hits given up per 9 innings is almost in line with career norms 29 hits in 30 innings. So the question is why is Burtons control off so much this year? Burton has also given up 9 walks in his first 15 innings and 6 in his last 20 innings which is less than 3 per 9 innings his last 20 innings. Also he has given up 5 Homeruns this season with 3 coming in his first 5 innings. His first 10 innings he gave up 9 earned runs and 10 in his last 20 innings. a 4.50 era isn't great but passable. In his last 20 innings he has given up 18 hits 2 HR 6 walks 16 K's That's a 1.2 WHIP and 7.2 k per 9 innings and 2.7 bb per 9 and 2.6 ks per bb. Those are solid numbers. So it stands to reason that Burton just had a bad start to the season and has turned a corner and will likely to produce from here on out. Maybe not as an elite reliever but as a solid middleman.

I think Escobar is still developing and transitioning from being a utility player to being an everyday one. He is now the everyday SS. The only reason he is playing third is because Plouffe is hurt and Santana doesn't have experience there. On a fun note there was an article about the top 10 utility players of all time in terms of playing time Reboulet was number 1, Newman made the top 10 and so did Hocking. Punto was a starter so he wasn't in the running. I think its funny that the Twins value middle IF back up consistency so much more than all of the other teams.

I am still not convinced that Slama wouldn't have made it in the majors if he had more time which he clearly earned. He may not have been as dominant but I would have liked to see him throw 30 innings instead of 5 to see what he can do over 2 or 3 months.

Pino's start inspire the song of the day.

I wonder which pitchers make the list. I am glad that there are no twins on that list.

Do we need to be sellers if we are 6 games back? Why not try to win a bunch of games for the heck of it and decide in the offseason who we want to keep and if we loose a player in the offseason for nothing then so be it.

I think they are waiting to see if they need to DL someone, or if they are trying to pass someone through waivers they may not want to announce it right away, or they may be trying to decide who to send down, a pitcher or bench player. Burton isn't going anywhere as he has ups and downs but has a low to mid 4 era if you take out his 7 runs allowed total in back to back outings in early April. That happened right out of the gate so excusing that he has been decent for most of the season and seems to be back on track again as he has gotten us out of some tight jams this week.

Sizemore didn't k every other at bat like Kubel. I wouldn't sign him to a major league contract. But I wouldn't object to him signing a AAA contract to see if we can help him right the ship. Apparently, You can never have too much centerfieldering on your team.

He has 5 SB so he seems to be running alright. He has 14 XBH in 185 AB so that's not too bad a little light IMO, He has 18 BB so his plate discipline is fine so at first glance it appears to be his timing or BABIP is off. I think if he is willing to go to AAA for now he would be able to compete with Fuld for CF in a few weeks.

Can you say contract extension..... That's my big fear.