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Brandon

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Everything posted by Brandon

  1. Comparing what Chicago has done to what the Twins have done....LaRoche replaces Adam Dunn so not a big upgrade. The other signings are because Smardjiza knock out their worst starter like Santana does for us only our worst starter was way worse than theirs so Santana is a bigger upgrade for us then Smardijiza was for Chicago. Cabrera has 70 more OBP then the OF he replaces which is huge cause they really need OBP guys and Hunter basically replaces the offense of Willingham and Kubel with slight improvement. Chicago's bullpen was a disaster last year so that is really improved for next year. Chicago doesn't have much depth and they are reconstructed as a win now team. They have a terrible farm system and IMO are in danger of becoming what the Pirates were for a long time a team close to .500 with no where to go.
  2. What grade would you give the Guerrier signing? He was effective for half a season in terms of ERA till his last 2 appearances and only cost 1 million. I'd give his signing a C. On Nolasco I still think it was an ok move and that he'll return to being a 12-15 game winner with close to 200 innings. for last year I give his signing a D- (he did pitch ok coming back from injury to finish out the year) F before the disabled list appearance. Kubel and Bartlett should have just started the season in the minors.
  3. I give the Twins a B grade so far this offseason. I think better of the Torii Hunter signing. not so much because he is so great. He is good and can be a good influence for Hicks to get over the hump and become a productive major league player. He may be exactly the person to be able to do that for Hicks. But there also wasn't a lot of other options either. Rios, Rasmus, Aoki, Hunter, between them I am fine with Hunter. I would have liked Cabrera better but that's it and he was thought to go for 4 or 5 years 14 million range which is more than the Twins wanted to spend. As for the Santana signing, There aren't many options that are better and none in that price range so I give that signing a solid A. If the Twins were going to go after Shields, Scherzer or Lester then it would be lower but seriously did anyone expect the Twins to even target Santana? I think the Twins biggest mistake was not signing Neshek to a 2 year 12 million deal. granted that is a little high but if the Twins want a good reliever for the pen you might as well get one of the best from Minnesota that wants to be here. and 2 years is not that long. we probably could have had a small discount. maybe 2/10 or 2/11 instead. Yes I know there are other options so my expectations are increased for our bullpen next year since we missed this obvious signing. I still expect another signing here too. not sure who they'd target but they could use a solid arm till Burdi comes up.
  4. Why not? they have a top 5 offense that just got better with Hunter. Their rotation while not great has 3 dependable starters with a 4th one who should bounce back giving the team 4 12-15 game winners. The bullpen is above average as well. we may have lost 92 games last season but last season our team wasn't the same type of loosing season as the others. we improved our run differential by over 100. We just improved a rotation spot that should net us 40 runs or so in the run differential for next season. so what part of our team is going to keep us from contending?
  5. 7. Now the Twins have a pitcher they can trade down the line to help replenish the farm system when they start drafting in the first round with the 28th pick. This would happen if the younger pitchers show they belong and can adequately replace the pitcher being traded or we have the ammo to trade a prospect to acquire a piece that helps us get to the World Series.
  6. I thought Santana would get 15 or 16 million per year so I think we did real well to not only get our pitcher but at the price too. If you look at his expectations last year he expected a 5 year 75 million and got 1 year at 14.1 million + the 54 million guarantee on this one he came close at 68.1 million. Does anyone know if there is a 1 million buyout on the option as I see on mlbtraderumors there is an update saying the contract is for 55 million guaranteed.
  7. it appears to be done now. 4 years and 54 million with 5th year option
  8. I'm ok with trading veteran pitchers we sign today for prospects down the line when our young pitchers are ready to establish themselves if that's how we can handle the log jam of pitchers. I also think having Santana on our staff now makes us a .500 team as is. if Nolasco rebounds and a solid 5th starter emerges then we could compete for a Wild Card / Division Title.
  9. Well if this goes through then we would match up well against 2 of the move the Whitesox made so far. Torii vs LaRoche (this is a fairly close matchup with the bat) Santana vs Samardzija (Samardzija gets the edge but Santana can hold his own) Too bad we didn't get Neshek to counter Robertson. I don't consider Duke too significant as he is pretty similar to Deunsing in results.
  10. Its starting to look like we won't be outdone by he Whitesox this offseason. We are a reliver short of matching the Whitesox moves man for man. Hunter vs La Roche Santana vs Samardzija Reliever to be announced vs Robertson Granted we are not likely to top Robertson, Torii and Santana match up fairly close to their counterparts. If the Twins would have signed Neshek this would have been close to even across the board.
  11. Wow! We actually gave up a draft pick to sign someone. We are really moving up on this free agency thing.
  12. How bout trying to determine the bar at which the Twins should be operating? is the streaming revenue and such allowing the Twins to operate at what should be a 120 million payroll or should the Twins be at 110 or up to 130. As far as players to sign. I kinda would have liked to see the Twins sign Neshek for the bullpen. while 6 million a year for 2 years is too much. Having a home town player who wants to be here that we would root for would be nice too. I think the Twins could afford the extra 2 million per season or so over what the Twins would perceive as market value for the contract. I get that we are not going to go out and sign a 25 million per year pitcher for 6 years. That's just too much risk or eggs in one basket. but Liriano on a 3 year 39 million makes sense to me.
  13. I would agree to but for 2 years it not a lot. He is a fan favorite from Minnesota so again why not. If the salary is prohibitive from making other moves then yeah don't sign him but I can't shake this feeling the Twins are going to sign a Vogelsong or Kendrick.
  14. I also saw the Angels were asking about Escobar and talking about a reliever Pestano. More disappointingly Neshek signed with the Astros. And Volquez is looking for reasonable money so he may come back up.
  15. While I personally agree with Hunter, my issue with Berardino pressing Hunter is I am tired of the self appointed PC Police. Hunters signing was about baseball and the gay issue was brought front and center and made a big deal. This point of view was not discussed in your podcast. I follow baseball to get away from this type of garbage. I don't want to discuss politics when watching baseball other than maybe the politics of why an organization makes the moves they make based on baseball and financial reasons. Also I am not hugely religious so that does not affect my views. As far as my logic to support the signing is exactly in line with what Bonnes said. There isn't a lot out there and its a 1 year deal, He can hit, RF is smaller in Target so that helps and we have Schaeffer as a defensive replacement to further help minimize it. So the move is not the worst and there wasn't a lot out there either. Also I think if Hunter can play 2 more seasons his Hall of Fame candidacy at least becomes a debate whether that can happen remains to be seen.
  16. If we start both May and Meyer in the rotation are you comfortable with May, Millone and Pino as our top options to come in and pitch? I think the Twins prefer another veteran for at least half a season if nothing else like Corriea this year. I hope we don't resign him. So what I am saying is I bet the Twins prefer the extra depth so we don't end up relying on players who don't belong in the majors.
  17. The Twins have Santana to go out to CF if Hicks doesn't make the Team. This will all be decided in spring training and throughout the first few months of the season. But I suspect Hicks has a shot and Santana is there in case he cant cut it. I know TR was concerned because Hicks wasn't driving the ball during his September call up. Regardless I believe this season is Hicks last chance to make it. Also as far as the rest of the roster is concerned. I think the Twins value stability and experience so they probably only want one maybe 2 rookies in the pen at a time. so I can see them signing a reliever if they can find one they like. The Twins will not spend big there but they are usually successful in finding good relievers so I wont question much who they sign there. The rotation is the main area of concern. My fear is they sign someone like Masterson who is a question mark going into next year. I would rather the Twins trade for a solid pitcher then sign a question mark. we already have Nolasco as our question mark and while I am confident he will turn it around you never know it may not be as much of a turn around as I hope. based on the free agents out there I like Liriano, Volquez, and Ervin Santana. If the Twins decide to sign pitchers coming back from injury I hope they sign several like Scott Baker, Johan Santana, and Anderson or Medlin. (Ok Anderson would have to be one for sure then any of the others as a back up option). Scott Baker and Johan is going with the theme of getting the band back together they are not necessary but would be fun to see what they have left at this point.
  18. Yeah if a few things get done. we need a return to form from Nolasco. (200 innings around a 4.00 ERA) This is not unreasonable to expect. we also need to sign another pitcher who can throw 200 innings with an era in the high 3.s. (this would replace Corriea's4.94 and May's 7.88 era in the rotation from last year) and May, Meyer, or Millone will need to step up and e a solid 5th starter and replacement fillers throughout the year to replace Deduno, Pelfry, Pino and others from last year. Our bullpen is already pretty solid. We could use 1 more solid arm but we do have lots of options in the minors.
  19. Last year we improved our run differential by over 100 runs over the 2012 season. we should have been a 72-75 win team last year based on that. I expect next year Nolasco will rebound to the 12-15 game winning 200 inning pitcher we expect and that gives us 3 decent starters with Hughes, Gibson and Nolasco. A 4th starter and Millone, Meyer or May as the 5th starter gives us depth in the rotation and likely more than enough improvement over Corriea (4.94 ERA), Deduno (while in the rotation 5.91 ERA) Pelfry (7.99 ERA), Pino (5.07) , and May's tryout (7.88 ERA) at the end of the season. That alone will improve our rotation from one of the worst in the league to 6th -8th range making our ability with a bullpen that is above average 4-6th range as a better than average pitching with high scoring offense = a winning season on paper. With Nolasco shaving a run off of his ERA, a 4th starter shaving 1.5 runs off of Corriea and continued development from the 3 competing for the last spot which should equal at least 1 or 2 full runs shaved off of what our 5th starters did last year, our run differential will improve enough to make us a winning team and possibly a contender.
  20. If you are worried about his Defense just remember we have Schaefer available to deploy in the late innings of a game and the Twins RF is smaller than Detroits RF. Does this make everything better??? no but it does minimize the negative impact of his decline in the OF the best we can. Also Torii can still drive in 80-90 RBI's next season and that too will negate some bad plays. Overall this is the best we could hope for a 1 year contract from a solid player. Now its time for the real debate who plays CF next season Santana or Hicks and will Parmalee be outrighted with the Hunter signing?
  21. I think signing Hunter is a good thing. Its not as bad as you think. its one year, he's gonna hit 15-20 HRs with 30ish 2Bs and drive in 80-90 RBIs. plus our RF is smaller than Detroit's so defense won't stick out too much. Our offense should be a top 5 offense if Santana, Suzuki and Escobar can have repeat seasons. If we can find another solid starter we should be able to contend next year and at least be over .500.
  22. It was also tried in 91 with Jack Morris leading the young pitchers on the Twins staff and that worked out pretty well.
  23. The Twins will keep Deunsing. There's not a compelling reason to let him go. He doesn't make too much. Now if we had a 120million payroll and we were stretching for more then yes he would be cut or traded. But I am certain he has enough value to keep around for 1 more year. I wouldn't be surprised if we signed him to a 3 year 10-12 million extension either. Nunez is a keeper in that he can play everywhere and should be able to steal 10-20 bases. It all depends on what the Twins decide they want on the bench and I would do that in spring training and not now as we can cut him in spring and pay a 1/4 of the contract or something like that. Fien, Plouffe, and Schaefer are keepers. Though an argument could be made to let Schaeffer walk, I think they keep him cause he can play CF. Millone is the one I am concerned about keeping or not. I don't think he has the best talent or enough ability to necessarily stay in the majors and 2.5 million is getting a little high to make that type of decision. Only because we are under budget would I consider giving him a chance
  24. I would probably wait one more season to see how he improves or maintains where he is now before signing long term. I do think he is a likely building block if he can continue last season. I also think your 4 year 36 million is a fair number. Maybe a little high but not much. How bout a 4 year 33 million with a 5th year option at 13 million or 1 million buyout. I'll suggest 5, 7, 9, and 11 million with the option/buyout. This way he can be signing a potentially team friendly deal and getting security and increases the likelihood of the Twins not taking a loss on this contract.
  25. for 6 years you are looking at more money then that. try: 2015: 1 Million 2016: 6 Million 2017: 10 Million 2018: 14 Million 2019: 17 Million 2020: 17 Million Those numbers are more in line with the current market and this totals 65 million. Seager gets 100 Million for 7 seasons so we add another 17 million and turn the 1 million into 17 million because Seager is one season closer to free agency = 98 million. If you want to go for a home town discount you could see about shaving 3-5 million from this scenario. But I don't see Dozier giving up too much. If Dozier was willing to sign a 6 year extension for under 60,000,000 then we should jump on it.
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