Brandon

How much risk is there on a 1 year deal to the Johan? Santana can probably be had on a minor league deal. Plus he helps fill the reunion tour quota. Really though I think the Twins would be better off trading for a starter. Less risk than a long term contract. plus next year there will be lots of good free agent pitchers.

Hicks has no patience you are correct.

I think the Twins are basically 1 starting pitcher, 1 OF, and 1 reliever away from being an 85+ win potential team next season. The stat not thrown out there was Escobar's offense. he was dynamite the first half and slumped the second half and finished with what a 102 league adjusted OPS which was around 6th in MLB among SS. I am still not sure what to make of Dozier. I think he ay be more of a .250/.330/.420 with 35 2Bs and 10-15 HR with 15-25 SB next season. I think his fielding should be above average next season. Here's to hoping Mauer hits .300/.380/.380 next season. That can at least justify him in the lineup at 1B. Plouffe is what he is and I don't expect any different .250-.270 with 30-35 2Bs and 15-20 HRs I am glad to see his defense improve and I think that's what most people wanted was league average defense from him so he would not kill what value he brings with the bat. Suzuki will regress some but he seems to have sacrificed some power for average. So I think he will have a .270-.290 average with 25 -30 2Bs and hardly any HRs with ok defense. I'm ok with whoever the back up is too as either the end of next year or the following season the back up should be Stuart before he starts the following year. Santana can start at SS or CF next season and Escobar could be the SS or supersub. For this analysis I am going with Santana in CF. that makes Nunez and Santana the backups. Nunez has terrible defense and offers a little at the plate. I wonder if Bernier could push for a reserve job as I am sure his defense is better but probably hits worse than Nunez. Nunez does have speed so while I do expect an OPS in the low to mid .600's I do expect more SB out of him. I think he should be capable of 15-20 meaning he could be a valuable pinch runner for Suzuki, Arcia or Plouffe, or Mauer or Vargas at different points next year. In the OF we start with Arcia cause its fun and we don't want to think about the other options right now. but Arcia can be a 30 HR hitter and in CF I am going with Santana who I think can continue to hit .290-.310 cause he has speed and made good contact and Bruno. He doesn't walk a whole lot and has gap power so 30-40 2Bs and around 5-10 3Bs and HRs. LF we have Schaefer/ Parmelee/ Colabello/ Hicks. I am going to say what I think each of these players can do with 300 AB next season and we'll see how LF looks on opening day. Schaefer: if Bruno is able to keep him hitting I can see a .260-.280 / .320-.330/ .320 with 20-40 SB. This guy is pretty fast. Parmalee .250/ .290/.400 with 8-12 HR just shy of good power, average, and no patience to walk. He's a prototypical 5th OF/back up 1B/DH/ PH. He has value so I like him on the team just not exposed a lot. Colabello: I have him here only cause there are reports he was injured during his slide. If that is true he could be our LF for a few years and hit good. or he could be a failure waiting to happen. Just to see I would keep him around. I have no projections here cause he's either going to be good healthy or fail IMO I don't see an in between. Hicks. He is also an asset in certain spots. right now as a back up OF. he doesn't drive the ball so all of his contact is soft. I can see a .220/ .310/.310 with what should be 10-15 SB. last year he only stole 2 or 3. So going into next year I see a Hicks Parmelee platoon where Schaefer will likely replace Hicks at some point if he doesn't improve. Unless Colabello comes out of know where and drives in 80-100 RBI. The rotation has 3 starters Hughes (CY Young Candidate) Gibson (improving young hurler) Nolasco (solid when healthy) then lets see we have 2 rookies ready to go May and Meyer and May looks ready to continue moving forward and Pelfry and Millone 2 vets who were hurt with the team last year and Pino the minor league vet who pitched ok then was hurt. The way I see it is we can plan on Millone being the 4th starter and being a good one or we can sign or trade someone with a better track record and has better stuff. We can also let May and Meyer come up together and have Pelfy, Pino and Millone as the back up veterans if we need a fill in. I think it depends on how fast the Twins management want to ensure a return to competitive baseball. I think there is enough pressure so the Twins will want more pitching and sign one or trade for one. The bullpen appears to be going through a transition a little. with the Twins keep Swarzak and Deunsing for another season? I think they keep Deunsing and let Swarzak go. leaving Perkins, Fien, Deunsing, Theilbar, Pressly, then the Twins will go with Pelfry, then a combination of a bunch of potentials including Aaron Thomas, Oliveras, Tonkin and Achter. However I think that by the end of may/ Beginning of June Burdi will make his debut and stay. To bring this full circle we need a good starting pitcher to be the 4th starter but someone who is Number 3 starter material or better, a LF who doesn't have to be great but preferably a solid defender with slightly above average offense (Rios fits that the best IMO though Hunter would be the most entertaining to have on the team) and a shut down middle reliever cause maybe we can let Deunsing or Theilbar or Pressly go.

or too many ? marks either.

We would never trade Dozier for Kemp. the money doesn't match up and that is important. I agree that your thinking is in line with the Twins. that are interchangeable (Parmelee and Colabello) (Masterson and a number of other options in the pay range) (Rasmus or Hunter or Rios)

who I would non tender. The Twins already let Burton go so letting one of Swarzak or Deunsing go would be the max and wait till The Twins feel the new relievers establish themselves before continuing the purge. Also I think Deunsing may have some trade value. Swarzak is replacement level and I can see a case for staying or going. Millone if the Twins sign another starter should consider non-tendering him or trading him. Nunez I am content if we keep him as the 2nd MI back up. not as the main one. so around 1 million but if he costs more then 1.5 million then he can go. I would tender all of the others.

Our offense went through a transformation last year with Colabello and Kubel starting off with good Aprils then Willingham and Arcia picked up as they were tailing off then Santana, Mauer, and Vargas took over the last few months of the season. Dozier hit with HR power at first then 2bs power there after but was otherwise consistant all year as was Susuki (he did slump for about a month after signing the extension but finished strong) So going into next season we still have the offensive core that finished strong so we really just need a decent OF who can reasonably field or one that can really hit. Hunter and Rios would be at the top of my wishlist this offseason maybe Denorfia then Aoki after that I am fine with what we already have. I wonder if Colabello, who claims he was injured last year when his slump began, will he be able to rebound and be a good hitter next season. Parmelee is now 27. Can he make it as a starter in LF. odds are no but he does have the ability to hit 15 to 20 HRs and he isn't bad defensively. Schaefer is probably better suited to be a 4th OF but if he can continue to get on base at least .330 + he definitely has a lot of speed to swipe 20-40 bases. I am ready to concede Hicks as a 4th/5th OF at this point. There has been no progress in his ability to drive the ball against better competition. He can definitely walk more than anyone and plays good defense. That has some value not enough to necessarily start. Someone should make a decent LF from this bunch if need be.

I'll agree that if Schaeffer is getting 200-250 AB in a season that is fine. If he is getting more than 400 I would be concerned unless he is hitting .300ish and OBP is around .350+. His speed will take care of itself as long as he can get on base. As a back up he can also be a pinch runner. There is a lot of uses for him as a player on our team. He adds lots more value with a .350ish OBP and the higher that is the more playing time he will get.

I didn't mean to sound antsy. I was surprised the comment disappeared.

I thought I commented on this before. There is a former Twins who perfectly comps in this study Jason Tyner. He had 2 + seasons of hitting .290+ for the Twins after turning 27 in playing in parts of 4 seasons total. Then was done in his early 30's. He was a fast base stealer too though not as fast as Schaefer. I can see Schaefer as having up to 6 more seasons where he gets 200-400 AB's in a season and steals 20-40 bases before being done around 35-36. That's my projection for his career. But he'll have to hit and work his way on base at least .320 OBP to be able to get that much playing time.

Here's a comparable. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/smithdw01.shtml this guy hit very similar to Santana his rookie year. Didn't do to well afterwards. I am a huge fan of Santana though and I actually hope he remains in the OF and Escobar keeps SS. Santana could prove me wrong and reclaim SS but Escobar did just fine there. Why fix what ain't broken? Though there are lots of teams with starting pitchers looking for SS this offseason.

Eric Stultz has just been made a FA. H is Corriea 2.0

Denorfia does make sense as does Rios or Aoki on reasonable 2 year deals. If we have to go longer than that and pay more we may as well trade for a Los Angeles OF.

I think the Twins would be in on someone like Mike Leake. He is someone they can resign to a 3 or 4 year deal after the season and he is good for close to 200 innings.

Here's my favorite comparable for a post 27 year old career that I would expect to be similar to what I would hope for from Schaefer. I can see maybe 2-4 seasons like this with more speed. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tynerja01.shtml

When I look at all of the starting pitchers who are available for trade I can't help but think that is the best way for us to get a good starting pitcher that we want for our rotation. Its no secret we won't bother trying to sign Lester, Schertzer, or Shields. We probably wont go after Santana either since there are not many options on the open market in his tier of talent so he will likely cost more than he should. But there are lots of starting pitchers who are on the trade market who are available at the right price. Oakland has said they will listen on Kazmir, Bluejays are open to trading Buerhle, Cincinnati has 4 decent to good starters who are 1 year from FA so they are open to trading one of them, Mets have 7 starting pitchers possibly 8 and they need a SS. So does Oakland. We have 2 of them plus a few MI prospects too. There are more options too these are the ones I can remember. The reason there are so many starting pitchers available is because next offseason there will be lots of starting pitchers hitting free agency. Before I go into who is available in freeagency after the 2015 season Let me ask you does it make more sense to trade Escobar and Pinto (who the organization is down on) and a reliever like Deunsing or one of our numerous prospects for a starter costing around 8 to 10 million for a 1 year contract or pay a starter 40-60 million over 3-4 seasons. In terms of dollars and risk which makes more sense to you and what are some of your trade proposals? also if you are concerned because the starter is a free agent after the season look at who is a free agent after next season. Surely we can get a new starter if we need one. Here is the list from MLBtraderumors.com of who is on track for free agency next offseason. Clay Buchholz (31) – $13MM club option with a $245K buyout Mark Buehrle (37) Trevor Cahill (28) – $13MM club option with a $300K buyout Jhoulys Chacin (28) Wei-Yin Chen (30) Bartolo Colon (43) Johnny Cueto (30) Ross Detwiler (30) R.A. Dickey (41) – $12MM club option with a $1MM buyout Marco Estrada (32) Doug Fister (32) Yovani Gallardo (30) Jaime Garcia (29) – $11.5MM club option with a $500K buyout Jeremy Guthrie (37) – $10MM mutual option with a $3.2MM buyout J.A. Happ (33) Dan Haren (35) Tim Hudson (40) Hisashi Iwakuma (35) Scott Kazmir (32) Ian Kennedy (31) John Lackey (37) Mat Latos (28) Mike Leake (28) Tim Lincecum (32) Kyle Lohse (37) Corey Luebke (31) – $7.5MM club option with a $1.75MM buyout Kris Medlen (30) Bud Norris (31) Ross Ohlendorf (33) Mike Pelfrey (32) Rick Porcello (27) David Price (30) Ricky Romero (31) – $13.1MM club option with a $600K buyout Jeff Samardzija (31) Alfredo Simon (35) Jerome Williams (34) Jordan Zimmermann (30)

Nick you should write an article on trade candidates and who we should target in trade. Cause that's how we are going to get our next starting pitcher. There are too many good starting pitchers available in a trade not to make one. Next year is a much batter year for the Twins to sign a pitcher in Free Agency when there are lots more pitchers to choose from.

I like the other option better....TRADE for a starting pitcher. There are a lot of them available this winter cause a lot of them will be free agents next year. Next year will be the better year to sign a free agent pitcher if we need one. Also this year's Phil Hughes is Nolasco....sort of, I expect he'll rebound back to career norms.

I am not saying that Torii is the best option in terms of best player available. He's a good one that won't cost a long term commitment As we do have players coming up who can take over LF. I am putting lower cost options out there to fill the holes. your 2 moves cost 30 million to the payroll. Mine are closer to 20 million without a commitment past next year. The twins management will want to see if we can win and how that affects attendance before they spend again.

Several of the Teams who have starting pitchers available to trade need SS. Even with a 102 adjusted OPS Escobar was one of the better hitting SS last year in the AL. The Mets are willing to trade Niese or Gee. I think a package built around Escobar for one of them can be accomplished. With that said I am not a big fan of trading him. I think he should be the starting SS going into next season and Santana should stay in CF. While Escobar is probably a more average SS he definitely has earned the right to start and if we aren't going to start him we should deal him plain and simple. We have Nunez to be the back up with several others waiting at AAA and Polanco just a call away.

Instead of signing Santana who will get more than 3/45 on the open market we can trade for a starter. We can do a combination of Escobar, Pinto and Relievers and prospects and there are numerous pitchers who may be available due to teams over supply (Mets) or because they are a year from FA (Toronto and Cincinnati) that pitcher would cost less in terms of dollars. Niese would be around 8 million for example. For the OF I am ok with Hunter signing cause its just for 1 season. We have Rosario almost ready, Schaefer, Parmelee, Hicks and possibly Colabello gets another chance since we now know he was hurt last season. who can all compete for LF as is. I still think Santana gets a lot of time in CF next year and I am fine with that as it gives Escobar more time to prove he is a starting SS provided he isn't traded during the offseason. In the bullpen we don't really need to sign anyone, however the fan in me wants to see Neshek back with the Twins. The only other thing I can think of is making sure we have a solid back up C. I don't think the Twins want Pinto to be that guy and the guy they had there last year isn't all that good so I would think getting a decent back up is in order. Where are you Drew Butera? I don't see this as a transaction filled offseason as we now have a pretty stable team and even our bench is solid as well as the pen. Just a tweak in the rotation for depth and some competition in the OF.

This has no impact on how Torii will do next season. The Twins brought back Blylevin in 1985 and won the world series 2 years later. The Twins appear to be a hitter away from having a monster offense, A starting pitcher and some health for Nolasco away from a solid rotation, and a reliever away from an above average pen. That is a winning and contending team if we get the parts we need. We are a lot closer to contending then it appears.

I am kinda disappointed. but I think it is more important to have a good pitching coach at this point. Brunansky better be back as well or this is a terrible hire IMO.

Pinto is a good trade piece. I think there is a good chance he is traded. its not 100%. but he would be worth more to other teams than us by the way we played him last year in a rebuilding year.

I disagree with #2. I think the twins will trade for a starting pitcher. there's too many teams willing to trade a starting pitcher for this not to happen. Also I will say this for our FA efforts. we will resign Neshek as a FA. and have a Minnesota connected bullpen of Perkins Neshek and Theilbar