Riverbrian

Your second sentence is something that I've never said. Your third sentence... You are literally using MY POINT to argue MY POINT. Your 2nd paragraph isn't worth responding to. You are just spouting unnecessary elementary garbage as a continuation of your 2nd sentence which is already off base. Your 3rd Paragraph. Teams hire veterans (some more than others) to fill out rosters because they fail to develop. This is coming from a guy who isn't asking for a mass firing.

Bingo I've said this multiple times over the years and I will say it again. I will judge this front office on development and development alone. I think we have made good strides on the mound but on the offensive side... I am quite concerned and this front office has had more than enough time to not be where we are. The Twins are taking the same approach to filling out the offensive side of the roster as the big boys are. Free Agents and Vets are filling out the roster. However, the talent difference is striking. The big boys are signing Soto, Santander and Bellinger... we are signing Bader and France. If we try to play like the Yankees in here... we will lose to the Yankees out there is the line that sums it up from the movie Moneyball. Meanwhile, the Twins are quite simply behind the pace being set by the majority of the other 29 teams in terms of young controllable pre-arb players. Every time the Twins sign a Bader or a France to a one year deal (Even if Bader or France end up being average or even above average in the ONE YEAR that they are with us)... every time they do this... it should be a neon sign flashing to everyone watching that we have a development problem. If anyone doesn't believe this statement from me... just go to fangraphs/roster resource and look at all 29 teams and count the number of pre-arb players on the 26 man roster of each team. Take note of the development happening with Milwaukee and Cleveland and compare it with the Twins. The Twins are ranked in the bottom third of pre-arb players on the 26 man roster. Even the Red Sox with money flowing out of their pockets have nearly twice the number of pre-arb players than the Twins do. Here's the bottom line: If the front office chooses to live and die with lower priced one year contract vets that still cost 4 to 5 to 10 times what a pre-arb player makes. If they choose the path of the one year contract because they didn't develop pre-arb players that make the minimum because they think they have better odds of winning the game today. If they choose this path and fail. They deserve to lose their jobs because they have left themselves with no path out of this mess. The only path is to do it again because they purposely put development for tomorrow in the backseat for today. You are correct when you say: "If this organization had even a 50% hit rate on any number of young hitters, nothing else matters". Being ranked as the 7th best farm in baseball means absolutely nothing to me right now. Absolutely nothing. We can't afford to purchase players developed by other teams... we must develop our own. I'm tired of watching Jacob Wilson, Kristan Campbell, Jasson Dominquez, Eric Wageman, Jacob Mangum, Griffin Conine, Kameron Misner, Drake Baldwin, Javier Sonoja, Masyn Winn, Jackson Merrill, Jackson Chourio, Nolan Schnauel, Colton Cowser, Michael Busch, Joey Ortiz, Andy Pages, Wilyer Abreu, Spencer Horwitz, Pete-Crow Armstrong, Tyler Fitzgerald, James Wood, Spencer Steer, Corbin Carroll, Ezequial Tover, Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Volpe, James Outman, Josh Jung, Maikel Garcia, Triston Cases, Jordan Walker, Brice Turang, Brenton Doyle. Elly De la Cruz, Francisco Alvarez, Matt McLain, Kyren Paris, Yanier Diaz among MANY others playing for other clubs while we choose ONE YEAR GUYS who will be off to greener pastures if they succeed and searching for a minor league deal with another team if they don't.

The short answer. Games that matter in September is my minimum expectation every year. I don't know if that answers the question as it was phrased but I want to be in the playoffs. The question though... seemed to be phrased: Should the Twins just go to crap this season so Falvey and Baldelli are sent packing and the organization can begin new. In that regard. To be honest and this will probably cause some sharp disagreement with others but so be it. Ultimately... I don't want the GM and Manager lacking job security. I don't want their future dependent on Wins and losses. That may sound crazy to some but here is why. In order for a GM and Manager to do what is best for the organization long term... they can't be worried about the short term costing them their jobs. In other words... if Falvey and Zoll decide that a rebuild is in the best interest of the organization long term. I want them to be able to do it without worrying about the axe falling on them over the short term struggles that MIGHT come with that. I want the front office to feel secure enough to give a 26 man roster spot to a young controllable player with a future over a vet like Margot on a one year deal because it's best for the organization long term. I don't want Baldelli sacrificing long term because he feels like he must win or get tossed on the ex-manager scrap heap. I don't want Baldelli strip mining our young left handed hitters for parts because he needs to win now or lose his job. I want the front office and manager to have the job security to do what is best for the long term. If they do what is best for the organization long term... the short term will take care of itself. They can build an organization that will be bring me games that matter in September every year. Maybe just maybe... job security will provide them with the comfort to choose a controllable player with years to come in a Twins uniform over a vet on a cheaper one year contract that will not be back next year.

Some Thoughts: 1. That catch by Buxton was a great way to end a game. 2. Keaschall scoring from 2nd on that Larnach dribbler was almost as exciting as the Buxton catch. Luke is showing me how much I've been missing the running part of the game. I have no idea if Luke will continue to hit, I have no idea if Luke is here to stay or if he will be sent back down at some point. However, right now he is showing me something that the Twins haven't had in years. The extra base, the stolen base, havoc on the base paths. Keaschall will become my favorite Twin if he keeps playing this way. 3. It was nice to see Larnach drill one deep. I'm counting on Trevor this year. We tend to look at the big three (Correa, Buxton and Lewis) and lose sight of Trevor. Trevor and Wallner need to make it a big 5.

Here is some positive math. In 2024 the Chicago White Sox had the lowest team OPS with .617. So far in 2025... the Twins are currently sitting with a team OPS of .617 While I'm concerned about the offense. This team isn't going to finish with a .617 OPS. The numbers are going to go up and maybe... just maybe... that will produce a winning streak or two.

Easy gripe to make yet incredibly misleading. It's been my experience that the people who so easily quote DMA rankings to prove this particular point, have no idea how the market area was DESIGNATED or why the market area was DESIGNATED in the first place. They tend to not understand what DESIGNATED means and they don't care. When you explain it to them, they tend to not understand or care how much power they are giving to the Nielsen company as long as it makes their argument. They also don't understand or care why Bemidji is included in a TMA and Rochester, Duluth and Sioux Falls are not. They just quote the rankings and say look... see... let's all get pissed. They also can't explain why Tampa is ranked #11 and Miami is ranked #18. They don't seem to care if Forbes estimates these two franchises to be 29th and 30th ranked in value. They don't care why or how San Francisco, Oakland and San Joes combined is 10th. They don't seem to care that Oakland is leaving the #10 market for the 40th because the 59 COUNTIES that have been designated to make up the Minneapolis/St. Paul/Bemidji market is ranked 15th or 16th and payroll is 20th. Case Closed. All hail the influence the Nielsen Company has on the sport of baseball.

Agreed. The word “tanking” became popular to describe it. Marketing works.

I have no idea what Gasper could or will be. He hasn't looked that good thus far but it's awfully early yet. I will say this. Tampa right now has a 29 year old rookie in Mangum and a 27 year old rookie in Misner playing pretty well right now. Neither of them were highly ranked prospects in the Rays system. Who knows if Misner or Mangum will continue to be success stories as the year goes on. Who knows what there future will be. In the end... Gasper's age of 29 doesn't concern me. It's really going to come down to hitting the ball when he is sent to the plate. The key will be... how often will be sent to the plate going forward.

Castro's health is going to be a huge wild card. SS health is a wild card but Castro has that ability to move around. If Correa and Castro both need rest. Lee is locked in at SS and can't move. I imagine the club is waiting for the injuries to calm down or flare up before making assessments on the severity of them. We will have to take a look at the 26 man on Friday to see just how interesting it's going to be.

I took some time off of this thread to see how things adjusted to the Lee promotion. Your guess above would have been exactly my guess. I think they would have primarily went with 9 players to fill 8 spots and I would have bet on a rotation of all 9 until the next 26 man roster adjustment. I also think that Gasper and Keirsay would have been utilized exactly how you explain above. Of course we really didn't get a chance to find out. The roster has moved into sudden injury flux and it's going to take some time to sort all of this out. We have an off day today and we don't know the health status of Correa and Castro. All we know so far is that OF Matt Wallner has hit the DL and he has been so far possibly replaced by a corner IF from outside the organization. Over the next week or so. I think we will learn more about the organization's thoughts on Keirsay while Wallner spends his time on the IL. If Keirsay still gets limited playing time over the next week. If Rocco immediately favors a 29 year old Jonah Bride with 600 major league AB's and a career .640 OPS over a 27 year old Kiersay... when the injury was in the OF. The Twins organization will make a pretty loud statement on their thoughts on Kiersay. In other words.... this should be Kiersay's moment. This should be his opportunity to get some playing time and show that he has major league value. If Keirsay is not given that opportunity under these conditions... If the Twins chose not to give him opportunity under these conditions... when could he ever get opportunity? One way or another... we are about to find out if Keirsay belongs. We will find out either by actual performance or we will find out by lack of faith in him demonstrated by his supervisors.

I get why a bunt was attempted. The offense is scuffling and you gotta produce a run while you can when the offense has struggled to produce them. I assume Rocco made the call to bunt in that situation. I guess it's possible that Kiersay made the decision to give it a shot. Either way... I do wish that Keirsay would have taken a shot at swinging away. Oh Well

Interesting. It's April and it's possible that we have run low on players worthy of getting called up to sit on the bench and watch the 25th ranked offense perform.

While I'm not ready to declare the season dead after 17 games. What you are saying is spot on in my opinion. There is always a future bill to pay. You and I have been saying this for a couple of years now. While I'm very happy that they are letting them get their hacks in against left handers this year. Two years of Wallner, Larnach, Julien and Kirilloff being shielded from left handed pitchers is two years of compromised development for all 4 of those players. It should surprise no one that we are now talking about 26, 27 and 28 year old players still trying to find their way in the big leagues. Attached to that decision is also two years of providing roster spots for players with one year contracts that won't be back the following year. Players who they have made necessary for the functionality of the two year organizational strategy of shielding/compromising our young developing left handed hitters. Those one year contracts require roster spots that will not be used for a developing pre-arb player. So now, we have compromised at least 6 roster spots in terms of development. Tack on two catcher spots and Camargo sitting on the bench not utilized while he watches Vazquez hit as poorly as a catcher can hit... and now we have compromised 8 of the available roster spots in terms of development. and finally add in the superstars Buxton, Correa, Lewis and lets' throw Castro into that mix and we have compromised 12 roster spots in terms of development. Leaving one spot at most to throw a youngster like Brooks Lee to the Wolves. If you utilize almost all of your roster spots this way... you will bottle neck your development and pretty soon our young talent is 26, 27, 28 years old and haven't proven a thing. No one should be shocked by the age of youngsters since we've been letting Margot stay employed at their expense. Can Wallner hit left handers? Can Larnach? We are just starting to find out now. Can Keirsay hit as well as Margot did? I don't know and they don't know either. This type of strategy/philosophy. There is a future bill to pay for it. A big future bill. Are we paying that bill in full right now. Maybe... however, it's just too soon to tell because the season is still young but then again... this offense has been extended down since August of last year. No matter if we are paying that bill in full right now. that bill will come due. We can't keep signing one year deals with low level vets to fill the spaces only available through the consistent compromising of our development. For anyone who is afraid of youth, pre-arb players and I will include Rocco and the front office for this possible fear. I'll repeat this over and over again. Look at how many pre-arb players are on the rosters of the other 29 teams.... compare that to the Twins. Look at how many pre-arb players out performed Margot last year. What you'll see is that other teams are winning baseball games with nearly half the roster comprised of pre-arb players. Do we have a development problem? Have we just plain failed to produce the number of pre-arb players that other organizations can produce? Have we just plain failed to produce a left handed hitting prospect who can hit left handed pitching? Other organizations are not having that problem? Or has this been just a horrible unnecessary bottle necking of our system for attempted short term gain that may or may not be a gain. If the Twins don't have a lever to pull right now. It's because they have built a farm system with 26, 27 and 28 year old levers dying on the vine.

3 Hits There is no doubt that Clay Holmes has a fantastic sinker but... right now with this collective team slump that has lasted one tenth of the season (And multiple tenths of the season at the end of last year). I can't help but think to myself... Man... it sure seems like every pitcher we face this year are top of the rotation quality. It's quite possible that we are making pitchers look better than they are. I keep telling myself... there is a lot of season left to go but... this has gone on way too long. It's station to station baseball with nobody getting to a station.

Gasper and Keirsey are levers. Good ones? Bad Ones? I don't know but they are levers. If the manager does not believe that they are legitimate levers. If the manager believes that they would be worse. They need to be replaced by players that the manager will allow to pressure the under performing chosen ones. It's a bad combination A. A team hitting a collective .601 OPS and B. Two players on the roster that the manager would rather suffer through bad play with others then allow to step in.

Especially when Blewett didn't blow it. I think the Twins are just sticking to their plan to rotate through that 8 spot in the bullpen.

Well... then yeah... It would be really questionable to call up a guy only to put him immediately on the IL.

Rankings are fun but... in the end... they don't mean much. Whoever gets the first call will be dependent on who provides the opening. It won't matter if Keaschall is out performing Emma at the moment. If an OF goes down. Emma or Martin gets the phone call. Emma needs to be better than Martin when the call comes. Keaschall needs to be better than Miranda when an IF goes down and it still important to keep in mind that Keaschall is not on the 40 man yet.

Agreed... It's a big issue in my mind. The thing is this: It isn't hard to see how we compare with other clubs in this regard. If we are not signing mediocre old guys to fill roster space. We are filling that roster space with pre-arb players making the minimum instead. Players making the minimum increases the money available to go get a free agent significantly above mediocre. All anyone has to do is go to fangraphs/roster resource and look at all 30 teams and count how many pre-arb players each team has. Once you look at all 30 teams, compare and contrast, anyone can easily see that the Twins are behind in this regard. Low numbers of pre-arb players compared to other organizations speaks directly to development. Some may be wondering what this all has to do with the subject of this thread. It has everything to do with the subject of this thread. The lack of pre-arb players means that we are paying money to players above the minimum. The number of players who we are paying above the minimum drains the available amount of money to spend on more talented free agents with a larger price tag. The bottom line: Every Dylan Bundy and Manual Margot that we spend money on is a neon sign that we have a development issue. If anyone disagrees with that or thinks it's not possible to have that many pre-arb players on a successful roster. I encourage them to go look at the rosters of all 30 teams and count the number of pre-arb players on their roster. The article implies that free agency isn't our friend. It is true... free agency is not our friend but it could be if we just stop paying for low end guys and develop like other teams are seemingly able to do.

It's a disadvantage to be sure. The one thing that big money can afford that teams like the Twins can't afford is to make a mistake. The Dodgers can miss on a big money guy, absorb it and go get another. The Twins can't... If Correa turns into Javier Baez... there isn't another Correa that we can pay for. In my opinion... that is the biggest advantage that big money teams have over us and that advantage is a huge one. I agree with you on our pitching. No we haven't developed a Corbin Burnes yet but we have reached the point where we have stopped filling the rotation with Dylan Bundy innings eater types and that is what our farm system needs to do. It needs to stop our yearly need for low end vet filler. If we ever needed to rebuild... we could at least get some decent prospects for Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan. Hope it doesn't come to that but they are two players with decent value that other teams would want. The pitching is in decent shape and will hopefully get better. On the offensive side. I'm getting concerned if not disgusted. The best prospects to come through our system of late are the oft-injured Royce Lewis. It has been bad luck or something with his injury history that is keeping his value in check so I don't blame the organization for it. However, after Royce, It has been our left handed group of hitters, Wallner, Larnach and Julien who... well... everybody should know by now how I feel about the way we have developed these three players thus far and on that issue... I'm comfortable blaming the organization for the strip mining for parts approach we have taken with them. I'll continue to have high hopes for Lee, Jenkins, Emma and others but remain concerned about the organizational philosophy that has failed to produce Harmon Killebrew after many years in charge.

These major league players are fighting for careers. Congrats to Brooks Lee and his call up to the major leagues. And I feel genuinely sorry for Jose Miranda. I'm happy for Brooks and sad for Jose. Roster spots are limited and there is only one way to be fair to all of the players who want to be major league players. Let the best man win. Jose Miranda will have to move back and make room for someone else to take a shot at being the best man. I feel bad for Jose but it's fair that he is down in AAA right now.

Good News and Bad News The Bad News: We are one tenth of the way through the season. One Tenth of the season is a long enough portion of the season where legitimate concern can be expressed about the offense. This isn't one week... This is 16 games of an almost team wide slump at the plate. The Good News: There is still 90% of the season to play.

Agreed, Elite talent isn't the greatest input to success. The development of average to above average talent is also criticial. However, the elite player sure could be the fastest way to fix organizational stress points. The Angels did indeed have Trout and Ohtani and like you point out... The Angels couldn't get them a sniff of the playoffs. However, if the Angels would have chosen to trade Trout during those many years of organizational struggles (Prior to Trout's big contract and injury issues) or chosen to trade Ohtani. They could have (in theory) rebuilt their entire system with the return for that type of elite talent. If they did something like that. They could be one of the scariest young teams in 2025 right now. The Twins have never developed a player of this ilk to even entertain this path to relevance. I don't disagree with the points you are making... however this isn't a bottom half discussion per se. Yes... the bottom half teams have no choice. They have to develop, they have to move assets... on that we agree. However, development is also critical for the upper half teams. There is an impression that the Dodgers, Yankees and Mets just buy their players. They can do that but, they are also developing talent and doing really good job at it. Some of that talent lands on their 26 man rosters and some are moved for upper end talent from other organizations. There are basically 3 ways to build your rosters. Draft and Develop, Trade or Free Agency. You are correct that the A's, Rays and Guardians have done well for themselves over the decades in regards to development and acquiring talent to develop. So have the Dodgers and Yankees and Red Sox.

This is the crux of our biggest problem. Development over shadows Budget as the largest problem in the Twins organization. As you accurately point out. A problem going on decades now. How many superstars have we produced? The definition of superstar is subjective so let's rephrase the question? What kind of value has our farm system produced since Joe Mauer? We can remove some subjectiveness and get a sense of a players value pretty easy. How much are other teams willing to offer them in free agency. How much are teams willing to give to acquire them in trade. Who on the upper end have the Twins produced since Joe Mauer? Have there been any players produced by the Twins breaking the bank when they reach free agency? Long Term contracts for big money is an indication of value. Brian Dozier's one year deal for 9m isn't going to qualify as a superstar contract offer or an indication of player value produced by the system. What player developed by the Twins has signed the largest contract? How does that compare to the other 29 teams? Who have the Twins developed and traded to acquire front line talent? Is Jose Berrios the bench mark? Is Luis Arraez the best we could do? Talented players but... they didn't bring back what converted reliever Garret Crochet brought back in a trade so what kind of value have we developed to bring back upper end talent? Buxton and Lewis have or at least had superstar potential. Are they the best we have produced since Mauer? The value of Buxton and Lewis have been severely compromised by chronic health issues. Is this decent value produced by an organization? How do we compare to the other 29 teams? We don't compare well.

I entertain no thoughts that new ownership will come in and raise payroll to a higher tier. We may get a honeymoon bounce before settling back to the spending levels we are accustomed to. Kyle Tucker types or going to be out of our reach. One year affordable contracts do not produce Kyle Tucker types. If they do by some miracle... they will be gone for bigger money the following year. Leaving you searching the lower end of free agency again. If you want a Kyle Tucker on your roster. You must develop a Kyle Tucker. If you want to trade for a Kyle Tucker in his final year like the Cubs did it's going to take prospects to get that deal done and that means prospects that interest the Astros must be developed. If you want to trade for a future Kyle Tucker... you have to players that other teams want and that takes development. Players acquired via free agent like Carlos Correa can't be converted to a future free agent because they are overpriced through the nature of free agents signing with the highest bidder. One Year Vets signed through free agency will not be enough to acquire a future Kyle Tucker type. It will take a developed player with years of control to acquire a future Kyle Tucker type. It would take a Wallner type and then you have to replace Wallner. We can't afford players developed by other organizations. We must develop our own. Every roster spot utilized by lower tier free agents is additional money beyond the minimum spent against the budget. That additional money beyond the minumum could be combined to play in the upper tier of free agency for one player and remain in under budget. Develop or Die. Free Agency will never be our friend until we starting churning out pre-arb talent to help us pay for an upper end free agent. The Twins are currently in the bottom tier of pre-arb talent on the roster. As a result the Twins are currently spending around 27 million on 7 players who won't be back next year and those players who comprise that 27 million won't have a ton of suitors for their services next season. That 27 million would make them players in the upper end of free agency for 1 or 2 upper end players. In order to direct your resources toward 1 or 2 players. You will need 5 or 6 pre-arb players to fill the remaining spots. An additional 5 or 6 pre-arb players added to the roster to free up the money to chase higher end players may sound like an impossible task... It's not. 5 or 6 additional pre-arb players will put the Twins at a pre-arb level already in place with winning teams like the Red Sox, Brewers, Guardians, Tigers and Rays. It doesn't matter what path we take to get there. It'll take the development of players to free up money to sign bigger name free agents. It'll take the development of players to trade for talented players or future talented players. And it'll take the development players to fill your roster spots internally. Develop or Die.