Riverbrian

Yeah... Like the Tigers did to the Nats yesterday! Not like what the Nats did to the Tigers yesterday.

The Milwaukee Brewers had 17 different players make starts for them in 2024. Two or three of those were openers so let's say 14. The Brewers have already utilized 14 different players to make starts for them in 2025. I think one was an opener so let's ay 13. The Minnesota Twins had 8 different players make starts for them in 2024. The Minnesota Twins have already utilized 7 different players to make starts for them in 2024. Interesting Fact: The exact same pitchers for the Twins by the way. Only Louie Varland hasn't made a start for them this year because he's in the bullpen. Anyway... Pitching injuries are nothing new. It is up to the front office to be ready for this sort of thing. We will see if they are. I have my popcorn and I'm ready to watch how it plays out.

7 Innings pitched - One Hit - One Walk - 13 Strikeouts. Skubal might be the best in baseball but his ERA is 2.15. Zero Runs in 7 innings is better that 2 over 9 innings that he averages. 11.4 K/9 on the season and he had 13 K/7 against the Twins. That's better than what he averages. .835 WHIP is incredible... that's rounds out to an average of 6 base runners per 7 innings. We managed 2. So that's better than what he averages and what he averages is already incredible. Skubal may be the best in baseball but what I saw that night was that he was facing a team that was beaten before they walked into the box. He entered the game with a 2.29 ERA and LOWERED IT with our help. With all that said. It's one game, we might put 5 runs on him next time we face him. Baseball is a funny game. That game doesn't make me feel any different. My opinion hasn't changed. It's been constant. The Twins offense isn't good. It's below average in total, low on-base, station to station baseball. That's not a one game determination... it's not a reaction to Skubal. That's a season long determination.

I won't argue any of that. How much salt and pepper you use is your preference but if you find yourself fearful of playing any of your 13 options. I'd ask that you step back and reassess the salt and pepper. 😉

A new series has started. I'd like to take this opportunity to point out that Marlins had a roster comprised of 22 Pre-Arb Players or more accurately less than 3 years experience. The Twins had 10 players with less than 3 years experience. The Marlins are 38-45 on the year. The Marlins are currently on an 8 game winning streak. In the their previous 5 series matchups, they have swept 3 of them. (Nats, Giants and D-Backs). Going 14-4 over their past 18. The Twins are 40-45 on the year. They have been the complete opposite going 4-14 over their past 18. I will continue to point out the pre-arb numbers of our opponents every series because it's important. I'm not doing this to be a prick but to point out to those not watching the other teams that youth is not the problem with other clubs. Other teams are doing decently with rosters that are comprised of young players. Inexperience doesn't mean wins but it doesn't necessarily mean losses either. Most importantly, I'm doing this to point out that the Twins are not comparing well to their peers in this regard and are spending more money collectively on this problem... leaving less to spend elsewhere. Have a nice day everyone. Go Twins. Beat this Junk Guy Tonight.

Another way to look at it. A manager or any of us mere mortals on Twinsdaily shouldn't be so afraid of giving up 4 AB's of playing time out of 6,000 AB's during a season because of the POTENTIAL result of one ninth of a lineup in one game out of 162. Being so afraid of those 4 AB's out of 6,000 on a given day that you are willing to sacrifice 1 roster spot out of 13 and just bench that spot is backwards. That 1 roster spot out of 13 is the most "finite" of all numbers and those 13 roster spots should be what every front office and game manager should focus on. You have 13 roster spots at any given time to improve your team with. Willingness to sacrifice that roster spot leads to thinking that we can't do better than Ty France or we might lose this game. It makes Ty France a lynch pin to survival. Willingness to sacrifice that roster spot makes average to below average unreplaceable. it kills discovery. it creates a chain of never ending low budget filler to fill the holes year after year. It can at least partially explain how after years of this type of roster utilization you end up on the low end of pre-arb players. It's why the math you are doing is important. It literally changes perspective. It can take you comfortably away from all or nothing every day starting 9 type decisions in a game where all or nothing starting 9 doesn't exist over the course of 162 games.

You are right... It is much harder than the (for example only) template I posted above. It gets real complicated when you start thinking: Janson Junk starting... fastball/slider guy, flyball pitcher, generates a high chase rate and he doesn't walk anyone. It's hard to work off a template when you are making decisions on matchups. That's an opponent consideration and each individual decision of this nature leads to slight/tiny statistical advantages. On the other side of that coin. You list valid Twins considerations that make it hard to work off a template... yet... at the same time your valid considerations also illustrate why all of this is necessary. Why do I say that? Because those considerations you have, show the individual imperfections, those imperfections show that they don't need to be in the lineup every day. You are not comfortable with Larnach and Wallner on the corners together. That's a valid concern and that concern or imperfection separates them from Buxton who really should be in the lineup every day. So you have established through your defensive concerns that Larnach and Wallner can yield a day of playing time. If I start talking myself into... Correa has to play everyday with a .681 OPS... that's when I run into problems finding work for players who might produce .690. What really uncomplicates it. Keirsay and Bride on the roster does a real nice job uncomplicating it. Two guys that Rocco won't play. Those two would both start 0 out of 6 this week. From my template, take out the 5 games I gave Keaschall and the 4 games that I gave Lewis. Give none of them to Bride and Keirsay and spread those 9 starts over to the rest. Oh Look... France is playing every day. France has been OK... but FRANCE PLAYING EVERY DAY like he's Byron Buxton is a problem and there is no competition to push him for playing time. You know what else uncomplicates it. Simply sitting your left handed hitters when lefties are on the mound and simply sitting your right handed hitters when a righty is on the mound. That's auto-pilot. Anyway... I'm grateful you are visiting this island. It's been lonely for me.

I love that you are looking at it and doing the math and trying to figure it out. That's why... even if we disagree... I will always listen to what you are saying because I know you look at every angle. For example purposes. Let's make it harder by taking the specialist Keirsay out of the mix and let's pretend Keaschall is healthy for 13 player spots Here is a 13 player utilization for this upcoming week against all right handed starters. With the catchers a separate consideration (I agree Jeffers for 4 and Vazquez for 2). You have 8 spots to fill for 6 games... that's 48 spots for 11 players. You could play one player everyday - Sit 5 players once, 2 players twice and 3 players thrice and that will account for all 48 non catcher lineup spots, all 11 players for 6 games. Nobody gets splinters and you can move these things around based on performance as it shifts throughout the season. To be clear - I don't recommend this exactly... it's for example purposes only... I'd like the manager to base lineups on data such as "hits sinkers well" to make daily decisions. This is just an exercise to show how the entire roster could be utilized with all 13 players and I don't think the team would take a tremendous hit on any of the days. Based on performance - I'd do this: All 6 games 1 player - Buxton (Make Hay while that sun is shining) 5 Games 5 players - Correa, Lee, Larnach, Keaschall and Wallner 5 games. Correa for defense, Lee because he's picking it up at the moment, Larnach and Wallner because of the left handed pop and Keaschall because he was looking great before he was hurt. 4 Games 2 players - Castro and Lewis (I could be convinced to make Castro 5 games and Lewis 3 games based on Castro playing well but Lewis was starting to hit before he got hurt. 3 Games 3 players- Clemons, Bader and France Day One: CF - Buxton LF - Larnach DH - Keaschall C - Jeffers RF - Wallner SS - Correa 1B - France 2B - Lee 3B - Lewis Bader Clemons Castro Vazquez Day Two: CF - Buxton DH - Larnach 2B - Keaschall 3B - Castro C - Jeffers RF - Wallner SS - Correa LF - Bader 1B - Clemons Lee France Lewis Vazquez Day Three: CF - Buxton LF - Castro 2B - Keaschall SS - Correa RF - Wallner 1B - France DH - Lewis 3B - Lee C -Vazquez Larnach Clemons Bader Jeffers Day Four: CF - Buxton RF - Larnach C - Jeffers SS - Correa DH - Wallner LF - Bader 2B - Lee 3B -Lewis 1B - Clemons Keaschall France Castro Vazquez Day Five: CF - Buxton RF - Larnach DH - Keashcall C - Jeffers LF - Castro SS - Correa 1B - France 2B - Lee 3B - Lewis Wallner Clemons Bader Vazquez Day Six: CF - Buxton DH - Larnach 2B - Keaschall RF - Wallner 3B - Castro LF - Bader SS - Lee C - Vazquez 1B - Clemons France Lewis Correa Jeffers Again... Just for example purposes but I don't see any places where the lineup is compromised any of the days. Others I'm sure will disagree.

26 man roster spots are gold and should be treated as such. It would be different if the Twins were the 2023 Braves with 8 players staying healthy enough for over 500 PA's with .741 OPS (Arcia) being the lowest of the group. It's gets more normal when they become the 2024 Braves with only 3 reaching 500 AB's including a player with a .625 (Arcia) OPS. We don't have that kind of lineup. No team really does. Especially the Twins since we only had two players reach 500 PA's (Castro and Santana) last year and one Player (Correa) in 2023. I'm not posting these numbers to advocate the need for more 500 plus PA players. I'm posting these numbers to point out that injuries and struggling players make it hard to field a team of 500 plus PA players and if you can't... Spots 12 and 13 on your roster end up being more important than what spots titled #12 and #13 would suggest they are. And if you can't field a team of 500 plus PA players with 8 rock stars. The specialists have to be more than simple specialists. It's why I struggle with the term bench.

The human side of these things is often glossed over. Agreed that Lewis has to snap out of it. His playing time has certainly been more extensive than his numbers suggest he has been worthy of. Regardless... Rocco will play Lewis. Rocco already decided that he wasn't going to play Bride. Other than take AB's from left handers.

I'd like to feel better about hitting development but I can't until I start seeing better results. Keashell looked great but so did Julien. He needs to be kept in the lineup when he heals but the future is far from certain. Erod? I hear good things but he's left handed and I have no reason to feel that the Twins won't strip mine him for parts. Same for Jenkins... Neither Jenkins or Erod are here yet but I'm sure the Twins will be looking for those right handed bats when they get here. And making McCusker watch from the bench for his brief cup of coffee in the sun. Signing Bride and Clemons instead... even with Julien and Miranda falling off a cliff certainly doesn't feel like a philosophy change. It seems like they don't believe in who they are developing and I want to know why? If the players are not good enough for their tastes. Is it their taste or their cooking?

You are correct. The Twins and Tigers are spending about the same in 2025. The Tigers had money to spend this off-season because they didn't 4 million here and 4 million there the money away with players in Arbitration and Cheap Vet Contracts. The Tigers have a roster full of players making the minimum. As a result, the Tigers had about 50 million to spend on DECENT free agents this year while we were sweeping up spilled produce in the supermarket aisles. The Twins are currently trying to figure out who they can't sign and who they will have to trade next year to make payroll room because we are not filling spaces internally like nearly everybody else does. If the Twins can't develop talent. This thing will crash and burn hard. The Twins currently compare with the Phillies and Dodgers in regards to players making the minimum. The problem is that we don't have the money the Phillies and Dodgers do. If we try to play like the Yankees in here, we will lose to the Yankees out there. Brad Pitt says a lot of smart things.

I'm not sure what you did there. I see my name username attached to the quote but that isn't my quote but it looks official. Since I was asked... I'll answer the questions just for fun. #1 - I'm not sure 2017 is accurate for this 2024/2025 version of the Tigers. I think they clearly started a rebuild in 2017 under Al Avila. The Upton type signings went away for a bit. But, I think that rebuild was officially over when they signed Javier Baez and E Rod to big contracts. They were rolling out vet names like Barnhart, Schoop, Candelerio, Victor Reyes and Grossman on the daily lineup card IN 2022. It didn't work very well but the Tigers had a 2nd run at it last year at the deadline and that's when I think this version of the Tigers began. Granted, they had been growing some prospects on the farm along the way but it wasn't like the Tigers farm system was overflowing with talent and it wasn't like the Tigers were opening the door for youth but for a select few like Riley Greene and Colt Keith who was really struggling at the time on the offensive and of course Tarik Skubal and Reese Olson on the pitching side. Then they traded away the moveable vets at the deadline which provided playing time for the youth and BOOM. That's the long answer... the short answer. I don't want to see a rebuild. I'd like them to get better at development so we are less reliant on the yearly supplement of cheap vets on one year contracts. I don't know if its an internal development issue or a risk aversion/lack of trust preventing major league deployment of developing players at the major league level. Either way... it's not good and we are currently behind a good chunk of teams in MLB and it's leading to a cycle of cheap vet filler, which will collapse at some point because the system has to produce because WE ALL KNOW THAT WE CAN'T AFFORD players developed by other teams via free agency. The system hasn't produced a Riley Greene. Falvey has had 8 years and the best we can do is an oft injured potential superstar in almost a year long funk and a couple of left handed hitters that are not allowed to face left handers. So... to answer question #2. If we enter a rebuild. I do not trust Falvey and Rocco to pull it off. I think Falvey has done a good job on the pitching side... I think the offensive side is a mess and the GM for a rebuild needs to be able to develop both and quit strip mining players for parts.

It's about time. Rocco had no use for him. We can now stop wasting that roster spot.

Maybe Hinch is doing it with 15 players that add up to around 11M in payroll. Which is about the same price as Vazquez alone.

Those Tigers look pretty good. I don't know how they do it with so much youth and so many left hander hitters. The Motor City Kitties faced the Twins with a roster that contains 15 pre-arb players at the moment. They still have 3 solid pre-arb players on the IL. The Twins brought 10 pre-arb players to Detroit (3 DFA's Clemons, Bride and Wentz). The Tigers current record is: 53-32 The Twin current record is: 40-44

I wouldn't want to go full rebuild either. But... if we need to do that. I'm just currently not development comfortable with our front office and the moving of Buxton or Correa is just going to create more players that need to be developed. I'd hate to trade Duran but you can trade closers because you can make another one. A trade of Duran wouldn't be as earth shaking as dealing Ryan or Buxton who are much harder to come by. Keashall, Erod, G Gon, Culpepper, Jenkins. I have high hopes and I hope they get real opportunity. 4 Years ago... It was Lewis, Kirilloff, Larnach and Balozovic. 8 Years ago it was Gordon, Gonsalves, Kirilloff. That's why I love your comment about volume in your post. We are going to need some of those 15th, 22nd, 25th, 27th ranked organizational prospects to work out.

I'm not a big fan of the roster as it stands but... if the Twins are in contention at the deadline. They better not sell. If anyone on this website (or in any front office) thinks they can predict the playoffs. I don't believe you can. If I'm wrong and you can indeed. Tell me about your past success and give me your picks right now so we can see if you can do it again. Now... if we are sellers. Moving the expiring contracts is a no-brainer and not moving them would be almost criminal. That type of thing should be routine seller activity. Now... if we are big sellers... I'm talking blow it up and start over type sellers. If we move Buxton or Ryan for example for bigger prospect hauls. If this is what we are talking about... if we are talking about Buxton and Ryan dealt for the start of a retool. I want to be careful how I say this but... If we are tearing it up like that. I'd rather a different front office handle it. Our current development isn't giving me warm fuzzies and I rather not increase the number of fuzzies in their hands.

I love this post. It seems that younger players have a stigma attached to them in our neck of the woods. We haven't had a lot of success with younger players so it's easy to develop a distaste. I get it... I understand but... but. It seems to be a Minnesota Twins problem... not exclusively but close enough that something needs to be done to keep up with others. Other teams are doing quite well with nearly half of their roster made up of young ball players. The Twins.. not so much. You are spot on... great post.

Defeat, beat, best, conquer, trounce, thrash, rout, vanquish, overcome, overwhelm, overpower, destroy, drub, subdue, crush, slaughter, clobber, hammer, whip, paste, demolish, shellac, skunk, gain, rally.

Everything that ails the Twins... Starts right here... with this sentence. It's not the money... it's what we are spending it on.

Ask a premature question. Get a premature answer. If the deadline was tomorrow. They are in buying distance from the playoffs. However, there will be another 28 games or so before the deadline. If they go 3-25 over that stretch. Not selling would be... what's the word I'm looking for... Bad... it would be BAD. If the Twins go 25-3 over that stretch... Not Buying would be... Insert your favorite adjective here. Ask a GM that question prematurely. You can't say I don't know because nobody will tolerate that answer. Can't say you will be selling because you just publicly told your players that you don't think they can do it. .

Agreed 100% Bride presence on the roster doesn't improve the team and it further weakens development by taking a developing left hander out against left handers. Not good for now, even worse for the future. 13 Roster spots. That's all we get to work with at a given time. The Twins currently have that reduced to 11 and have done so willingly. If they choose to do that. They better be right... they better not get injured.

You touched on a couple of points that bug me a little. Not key to everything bug me but little things that bug me just a little. The nearly 50/50 split at the catching position bugs me a little. I understand that defensive value needs to be strongly considered at the catching position, However, we are talking a rather large offensive difference between the two of them. Come playoff time, I doubt the split will be 50/50 and we have a little evidence to support that thought because... It wasn't two years ago. I'm not saying to completely bench Vazquez but I am saying that he could be dialed down while Jeffers gets dialed up. I understand that their might be value in keeping your catchers fresh over the 162 game schedule and a 50/50 rotation may help in that regard. However... not many teams (if any) are doing a 50/50 split at the position like the Twins have been doing for nearly 3 years straight now. And here's the other thing. We have been incredibly healthy at the catcher position. What if that changes? Will Rocco go to a 50/50 split if Vazquez goes down and Jeffers is paired with Gasper or Camargo. I doubt it. In that scenerio... We might see Jeffers 4 out of 5. This just leads me to the question... How has Vazquez maintained his lofty position in the eyes of Rocco and the Front Office. The other thing that you brought up that bugs me and bugs me more than the catcher playing time split. As you mention... No Depth. Injuries will come and when they do... players with OPS under .509 will see a playing time increase. Spots 12 and 13 on the 26 man roster are not trusted to play and this leads to the cementing of average. Ty France has been fine... he's been close to average... he's had some key hits for us. But cementing of average with no one to push Ty France, means that he is playing every day out of necessity. That's a problem. Nobody to push Ty France for playing time is a problem. Ty France being basically not replaceable in the daily lineup is a problem. Yes... the team has been average offensively over the course of this season. Average isn't bad but it also isn't good. Average is fine if your pitching is above average... If your pitching stumbles... you'll need that average offense to step up to cover. Offensively we trying to land a muskie with 5 pound test fishing line. There is a good chance that it will snap. This team will have to keep focusing on panfish to sneak into a playoff spot.

Lewis and Keaschall are on the IL. The Twins are mainly healthy and mainly locked in. Basically 8 players are available for 7 lineup spots. We had a mini stretch of Larnach followed by Castro out with hand/wrist injuries that left Rocco with 7 players for 7 lineup spots. Wallner and Larnach appear to be in two different rotations with each other. One must play and one must sit against left handed starters and they appear to be rotating. One must play RF and One must DH and they appear to be rotating there as well. Against right handers... Lee has sat once, Bader has sat twice, Castro injured for three and Larnach injured for one. The other 5 players Clemens and Bride are platoon partners. That appears to be a thing. The Catchers continue to basically rotate every other game despite a despite a .239 OPS difference between the two of them. Keirsay has been on the roster for 10 games and has one start. The MLB average OPS this season is .714. The Twins have a team OPS of .707. In the past 15 games (Basically since Lewis got himself injured). The Twins have a team of OPS of .726 The Twins have 3 players that are .509 OPS or lower. That's right .509. Got themselves roster spots though.