Riverbrian

Easy to argue The Marlins while absolutely needing OF production improvement already have 3 OF guys (De La Cruz, Soler, Sanchez) on the roster with a higher OPS than Max Kepler plus Avisail Garcia under contract for the next 4 years plus 2 decently ranked prospects on the 40 man roster (Bleday, Burdick). How does Max Kepler move the needle for them?

If I were to guess and guessing is all I have. Garver was what the Rangers required to beat whatever the Yankees were offering for IKF because that's what it took to get the deal done. The Twins were probably offering something surplussy and you would have to assume that the Yankees were offering something surplussy. Ultimately the Rangers wanted a catcher to get it done, which was obviously something that the Yankees didn't have because they asked for Rortvedt in order to fill what they couldn't provide to the Rangers. Just guessing but I assume that the Twins didn't plan on trading off catcher depth but that is what the trading team was asking for. It takes two to tango, which just goes to show that we can have a surplus but... that piece of the puzzle has different edges to it.

I don't know about Rotation but I certainly want more than 60 innings from him.

Agreed However, even the trade route is going to take further development of the guy acquired to get him past the Sonny Gray threshold. If the player you are acquiring is already past the Gray threshold, very few teams are giving him up and if they do the price will cost farm system depletion. If you deplete the farm system, it is going to hamstring the developing of your own guy from your system because that guy is who they will ask for to make it happen. Not saying it can't be done... Kluber came cheap and blossomed through further development but either way... Joe Ryan has been more than expected. Either way... Development is the most reasonable way to find that guy. All teams... Even the Dodgers and especially the Twins/Marlins are going to need 600K guys who can get the job done in order to afford the bigger contracts. If you trade off the 600k guys, you find yourself stuck in free agency being the only way to fill your roster. When that happens to the Twins... The Archer's, Bundy's and Happ's are what show up more often than not. Once you reach that point... the full scale rebuild is just a moment away.

If the Twins want a pitcher to surpasses the Sonny Gray threshold they will most likely have to develop him.

Being a GM is a tough job.

Is this a conversation for how things stand in October 2022 that strips away all of the surrounding years. Right now the Padres are high and the D-Backs are getting great draft position. But, the Preller years in total, The Giants and Rockies have struggled along with the Padres and D-Backs. In fact, the D-Backs have had a better record than the Padres more often. Tomorrow. The D-Backs are setting up for coming out of a rebuild while it's questionable if the Padres can spend even more to avoid the rebuild that the D-Backs have a head start on. The Weak AL-Central discussion... with the .400 to .600 margins in place... I will never underestimate the Royals or over estimate the Yankees. The margins between bad and good are thin.

Teams were salivating over the the Phillies defense this year. ?

Pitch framing data does seem to replicate.

All in All, I like the aggressiveness. However, that OF is a collection of health and performance question marks.

I really appreciate what you are saying here. In my mind, this discussion is what I personally need Twinsdaily to be and I thank you for it. Too many viewpoints on this website are Why aren't the Twins perfect? comments that lack the needed perspective of sensible comparison against their peers or assessment of the context surrounding them. Basically... I appreciate your effort to take another organization and bring them to light to constructively criticize our efforts and that is 1,000 times better than the "Baldelli is an Idiot" comments that echo around these walls. Discussion like this is what I am always hoping for when I check out this website. This is like that occasional 300 yard drive straight down the fairway that I used to pull off every 18 holes that kept me coming back to the golf course despite all the time I spent losing balls in the woods, raking sand traps, chipping over the green and 4 putting my way to a 98. With the compliments out of the way. ? Please allow me to add some wrinkles. 1. This isn't an overnight success story. This story is 10 years in the making. It was 2012 when Seidler and Fowler purchased the Padres. With A.J. Preller as GM, this story is 8 years in the making. During that time the Padres have only had a winning record twice. In 2020 and this year in 2022. 2. One thing that I always say about spending and I will say it again here. The one thing about money is that it gives you the opportunity to pave over your mistakes and the Padres have made quite a few mistakes over these 8 Preller years. Don't get me wrong... all teams make mistakes so I'm not attaching blame for what hasn't worked and perhaps stalled them along the way. I'm just pointing out that a big payroll gives you the chance to try again. The Hosmer signing may have energized the fans but his production was nowhere near the money spent. Hosmer was a mistake that needed to be paved over with more money spent. Myers was signed to big contract, his acquisition cost them Trae Turner and his production was nowhere near the dollars so he was a mistake that needed to be paved over with more money. 3. In the Padres case... mistakes are certainly going to happen when you have perhaps the most aggressive GM is the history of the game. Preller is fearlessly aggressive like we have never seen before. He absolutely doesn't stand still. He was/is full steam ahead aggressive in all phases of acquisition from the International Market to Free Agency to the billions of trades he made that basically replaced everybody on the roster with someone else. I remember back in the early days that I couldn't tell if he was coming or going as he played both sides of the aisle but while he was picking up Kemp and Upton, he was also building the strongest minor league system in baseball, which he has traded off to the bone culminating with the Hader and Soto/Bell deals. 4. The farm is now empty. This puts them at severe risk of a rebuild in the near future. Not saying they will have to rebuild but the odds have certainly increased because they have nothing coming up to fill holes and nothing of value to trade to acquire players to fill those holes, it leaves you one avenue to fill the holes and that is too spend even more money. They are clearly spending now, but will they sail past the luxury tax threshold to avoid the rebuild. I doubt it because I'm not sure the current spending is sustainable but I don't have access to the books so who knows... again I doubt it... but we will see. Regardless... there is always a bill due later. 5. They have traded a lot of talent. It could be argued... I'm not making this argument... but it could be argued that: The Padres may have been in this same playoff position if they hung on to what they traded away. Take a look around the league at the rostered players sent packing by Preller. Trae Turner, Grandal, Fried, Mallex Smith, Jace Peterson, Ty France, Torrens, Brash, Quantrill, Naylor, Hedges, Patino, Mejia, Margot, Lauer, Urias, Renfroe, Xavier Edwards and everything they gave up to the Brewers and Nationals at the recent deadline. I'm sure I am missing a few but there is a pretty good roster of players that Preller sent away. Back to your point. I agree with you. I was at Petco in August for a game against the Giants... That fan base is energized so the investment comparison is apt... but in the end... our front office has reached the playoffs 3 times since 2017 compared to the Padres 2 times since 2014. It just wasn't this year.

So with the defensive weighting that is done. Arraez WAR 56.8

They Do Not

I've never met the guy. I'll let the people who hire people... hire people. ?

Yep Trades are equal value when made. If you want to win a trade... make the players you acquire better.

Yes I agree and understand. It's adding the defensive wind to the offensive air temperature. I've spent enough time in North Dakota to understand what wind chill is. My issue is that I lose faith in the wind chill reports when the anemometer readings are "inherently more difficult" from the "curse of smaller samples". I take issue when the majority of wind events are routine and easily influenced by a couple of 100 mph winds and then apparently over-weighted when mixed with the air temperature. They can tell me that Max is 10 degrees with a -15 below wind chill but that flag isn't flapping like that. Besides... I'm more of a hot air guy. ?

I've never seen what they do behind the scenes. I've never met any of them in person.

I never really look at more spending as the answer to competitiveness and find myself not caring that much about payroll as much as others do. I still say that development is by far the most important factor in any successful franchise. However, there is no question that the ability to outspend your mistakes is a huge advantage that the Dodgers and Yankees hold over the rest of the middle class and where you get to in life often depends on where you start. Ultimately baseball needs to remove those financial advantages for the betterment of the game. I get that New York is an important market based on the size of it but if you add the markets of the have nots together, they will add up to more than the New York market so increased interest in every market across the board will produce a healthier sport. I use the phrase "Hope in Pittsburgh". Baseball needs "Hope in Pittsburgh". Pirate fans need to know they have a sustained chance, if they have hope, in theory, interest increases in Western Pennsylvania and West Virginia. Give Cincinnati hope and in theory you will have increased interest in Southern Ohio and Kentucky and if you keep dishing out hope, baseball interest increases from sea to shining sea and you have a healthier sport. Fox may love New York and Los Angeles for obvious reasons but Fox will ultimately love more people interested in baseball across the board more. I can't explain why San Diego spends more but they clearly do. There is hope in San Diego and it shows.

The only game in town will be a factor because the entertainment dollar only goes so far. Sometimes people will choose between a Wild, Timberwolves, Vikings or Twins jersey. How much does it matter? That's hard to quantify but it will be a factor. I spent decades in the media industry so I'm pretty confident letting everyone know that using DMA for this type of discussion is usually a mistake yet I see the rankings used for argument purposes all the time. Unless you have vast differences like New York compared to markets the size of San Diego or Minneapolis you are not moving the needle much. DMA stands for Designated Market Area. It is the area that is designated by Neilsen to determine where they measure. They can't place meters in Las Vegas to measure San Diego so they create arbitrary boundaries and place meters inside those boundaries. The geographical boundaries of real life is going to be larger or even smaller. The geographical boundries of sports teams is going to FAR exceed what Neilsen has defined for their operational purposes. Yes it is true that DMA is used as a guideline in how much you TRY to charge for media advertising and therefore revenue for the media outlet. However... it doesn't automatically mean that Minneapolis is going to be more expensive than San Diego when it comes to the advertising dollar. Even, if Minneapolis charges a higher rate than San Diego, it still doesn't mean that the media rights deal will be more... and in this comparison San Diego has a better media deal but I'd say it isn't enough make much of a payroll difference. I think the article that was created for this discussion has many valid points. All streams of revenue should determine how much you can sensibly spend, DMA does not define that. We really don't know what teams are bringing in when it comes to revenue, They keep that close to the vest. I'd guess that Padres bring in more than the Twins do but I'd also guess that it's not enough to explain the payroll disparity. Neither team should be able to spend at Yankees or Dodgers level but the Padres have chosen to. It just drives me crazy when people say Minneapolis is ranked #15 and San Diego is ranked #29 and then bang the gavel.

OK... Yeah it would be nice to fix the revolving door at SS. But, I'll add that at other positions some of those doors solidly in place need to start revolving.

I didn't vote because I was looking for the "I don't know but it better help" option.

Agreed Yet... these defensive metrics are folded into WAR. I use a stick of butter when I make my scrambled eggs. There are people who tell me that is too much butter.

Hamilton was basically gathering dust on the bench in September. Rocco only used him for pinch running despite Cave and Celestino being below average... nowhere near good enough for a team fighing for a playoff spot. Rocco turned to Cave and Celestino over and over again to below average results. If Rocco doesn't trust Hamilton to be an improvement over bad performance, I can't recommend a continuation of the relationship. I agree through... His defense and stolen base ability is good but we need a hitter more than we need OF defense. Whoever is backing up Buxton is going to play a lot. ?

Whoever backs up Buxton isn't a back up.

I won't argue bad or good, but we won games with Polanco, Arraez and Sano in those spots. ?